News Dow bouncing around -1000

[ponyo]

It’s a matter of trust. The CDC says get ready for the storm. Larry Kudlow says “We got this contained, tightly.” Choose wisely.

It comes to who I think has more power. Love or hate him but Trump is in charge. And stock market is his baby. Trump will do whatever it takes to prop up the market. So I have faith in our PPT.

This market was getting extremely frothy. Coronavirus was just convenient excuse to selloff and get rid of some of the excess. It was getting ridiculously easy to make crazy money with MOMO names. WSB Reddit subforum was blowing up with millions of new members joining thinking they were going to strike it rich. Little cleansing is good now and then.

 

[K1052]

Larry Kudlow is ludicrously unqualified to talk about this. Then again he’s also ludicrously unqualified to talk economics but that’s never stopped him.

The WH thinks this is a messaging problem and wants government agencies to put a shine on their predictions and statements. Larry would tell you it's not hot if he were literally on fire. It's not inconceivable that the administration will resort to more bold faced lying and other actions that will dramatically harm the public health because Trump thinks it will help a market at the top delay the inevitable downswing.

Congress, even Republicans, have started to lay into his underlings because they see the potential writing on the wall. If Trump bungles this the political consequences will be enormous.

 

[Jhhnn]

Heh. There have been rumblings of a downturn in Europe & China for some while. And there was that interest rate inversion thing. And that repo market thing. And the fact that our politicized FRB has done everything they possibly could to deny that the business cycle even exists. If this really turns south, which I suspect it will, they don't have anywhere to go with interest rates.

Maintaining stable markets is a lot like treating bipolar disorder. With proper medication, the manic highs go away with the dismal lows & patients don't like that, so they quit taking their meds. It's the same for the financial sector. And let's not mention thart corporate borrowing to finance stock buybacks leaves them more vulnerable to bankruptcy in a downturn.

Why Stock Buybacks Are Dangerous for the Economy

Even as the United States continues to experience its longest economic expansion since World War II, concern is growing that soaring corporate debt will make the economy susceptible to a contraction that could get out of control. The root cause of this concern is the trillions of dollars that...

hbr.org

 

[Jhhnn]

It’s a matter of trust. The CDC says get ready for the storm. Larry Kudlow says “We got this contained, tightly.” Choose wisely.

Larry Kudlow is a stooge, a reality show economist. He knows even less about public health. He's just here to pump some sunshine up everybody's skirts.

 

[Bitek]

Larry Kudlow is ludicrously unqualified to talk about this. Then again he’s also ludicrously unqualified to talk economics but that’s never stopped him.

I hear he's extremely qualified to discuss snorting cocaine however.

Perhaps he should stick to topics he has experience with.

 

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/tru...ng-stock-market-due-to-coronavirus-fears.html

I can see Trump yelling at everyone tomorrow to start propping up the market. Time to call in the PPT?

 

[hal2kilo]

Larry Kudlow is a stooge, a reality show economist. He knows even less about public health. He's just here to pump some sunshine up everybody's skirts.

You forgot about Born Again former cocaine addict.

 

[Jhhnn]

You forgot about Born Again former cocaine addict.

I won't hold that against him. It's just that he's a fucking hack.

 

[Muse]

The other alarming news was the big spread into Italy, iow it's in Europe, and it's in the hands of the Italians.

We're about to lose containment on a virus that has perhaps a 2% morality rate.

The hope was to limit the spread within China's borders. Once it breaks out, who knows how we can stop it.

2% doesn't sound like a lot, but Flu is 0.1%, yet 18,000 Americans die every year to flu.

2% of even 1 billion is 20 million people.

Mortality is probably a lot lower than the 2% we're hearing because of all the undiagnosed cases. It's probably more like 0.2-0.5%. What's most concerning is the apparent high contagion.

 

[Muse]

And yet, like almost every other time this has happened for the last 4-5 years there will be an almost complete recovery the next day. At least 600 points back into the green.

Didn't happen and I don't expect anything like that any time soon. This doesn't just have the potential to be a major disruption of world economies, it's looking more and more of a certainty. There's certainly uncertainty and that's historically negative for markets. This (economically) could get way worse before it gets better. Could take quite a while to shake out, too. Much is unknown still, including whether or not a vaccine will factor in. If nothing else, corporate earnings are going to swoon. Domino effects will prevail. You see signs of that already.

 

[Muse]

An ~8% decline in less than 2 days leads me to believe that there's more rattling the markets than just the coronavirus.

Why? The coronavirus is enough.

 

[Muse]

It comes to who I think has more power. Love or hate him but Trump is in charge. And stock market is his baby. Trump will do whatever it takes to prop up the market. So I have faith in our PPT.

This market was getting extremely frothy. Coronavirus was just convenient excuse to selloff and get rid of some of the excess. It was getting ridiculously easy to make crazy money with MOMO names. WSB Reddit subforum was blowing up with millions of new members joining thinking they were going to strike it rich. Little cleansing is good now and then.

Can't believe you're serious. You are an anointed bull. This virus has the potential to knock the stuffing out of the economy. This is no tap on the brakes by the Fed.

 

[Muse]

Didn't happen and I don't expect anything like that any time soon. This doesn't just have the potential to be a major disruption of world economies, it's looking more and more of a certainty. There's certainly uncertainty and that's historically negative for markets. This (economically) could get way worse before it gets better. Could take quite a while to shake out, too. Much is unknown still, including whether or not a vaccine will factor in. If nothing else, corporate earnings are going to swoon. Domino effects will prevail. You see signs of that already.

 

[K1052]

Trump is going to give a press conference on the viral threat at 6PM eastern. Given his tweeting today it's not likely to be very honest and he'll bash news orgs for reporting on the outbreak and hurting his precious stock market.

This admin's credibility is probably the lowest in the modern era and the market has been, so far, unmoved by rosy declarations of "all is well".

Also when calling other people incompetent maybe spell the name of the virus correctly....

 

[fskimospy]

Trump is going to give a press conference on the viral threat at 6PM eastern. Given his tweeting today it's not likely to be very honest and he'll bash news orgs for reporting on the outbreak and hurting his precious stock market.

This admin's credibility is probably the lowest in the modern era and the market has been, so far, unmoved by rosy declarations of "all is well".

This is one of the biggest liabilities when you have an administration that lies about literally everything. In situations like this where it’s important to inspire confidence you can’t do it because no one believes a word you say.

 

[TheVrolok]

In situations like this where it’s important to inspire confidence you can’t do it because no one believes a word you say.

No one rational, at least. Unfortunately, there are tens of millions in this country who believe every word.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Trump is going to give a press conference on the viral threat at 6PM eastern. Given his tweeting today it's not likely to be very honest and he'll bash news orgs for reporting on the outbreak and hurting his precious stock market.

This admin's credibility is probably the lowest in the modern era and the market has been, so far, unmoved by rosy declarations of "all is well".

Also when calling other people incompetent maybe spell the name of the virus correctly....

View attachment 17517

Or he could go normal Trump and trash the CDC like he has everyone else and remove whatever slight bit of confidence anyone else might have in his admin and their ability to govern..

 

[K1052]

Or he could go normal Trump and trash the CDC like he has everyone else and remove whatever slight bit of confidence anyone else might have in his admin and their ability to govern..

There is a non zero chance he declares the virus "fake news" and calls the CDC deep state anti-trump liars.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

There is a non zero chance he declares the virus "fake news" and calls the CDC deep state anti-trump liars.

My only thought he might not is the fact that CDC people will be there with him. he prefers to do things behind people's backs when they can't defend themselves. Never to their faces.

 

[K1052]

My only thought he might not is the fact that CDC people will be there with him. he prefers to do things behind people's backs when they can't defend themselves. Never to their faces.

As props. He's going to say whatever he wants as usual. Under questioning I could totally see him doing this.

 

[K1052]

In related news the Democrats are teeing up a 8.5B supplemental for the health emergency. About four times what the WH asked for.

 

[fskimospy]

My only thought he might not is the fact that CDC people will be there with him. he prefers to do things behind people's backs when they can't defend themselves. Never to their faces.

I think there’s a non-trivial chance he forces the CDC to walk back its warnings and say everything’s fine.

Remember, he doesn’t give a single shit about if it’s bad or not, how many people die, or even if the government response is effective. He only cares about if he gets credit or blame and how it affects his election chances. If given the choice where more people would die but it would be better for him personally he would do it in a second.

 

[Muse]

There is a non zero chance he declares the virus "fake news" and calls the CDC deep state anti-trump liars.

No, even he wouldn't be that stupid. What he WILL do is (without being specific) hugely overstate our preparedness (his budget proposal calls for 19% reduction in CDC funding, peeps...) and he's cut their funding in the past. NIH, who needs 'em? Maralago, jaunty junkets with global dictators and other heads of state await.

I WILL NOT WATCH THE ORANGE MONSTROSITY TONIGHT!

 

[Muse]

In related news the Democrats are teeing up a 8.5B supplemental for the health emergency. About four times what the WH asked for.

Yup. Even that may be woooooooefully inadequate to deal with what's coming (if we don't).

 

[UNCjigga]

In related news the Democrats are teeing up a 8.5B supplemental for the health emergency. About four times what the WH asked for.

Just think of all the yards of border wall that will pay for when the Executive Branch reallocates it!!!