Dow Below 10,000

[nergee]

..."I agree it's at the point now where we need to wonder what a depression is going to look like.
It could turn around quickly, potentially, but depression talk is no longer extremism."

What's a depression going to look like? I don't know but:

Commodities are sinking
The dollar is strengthening
The stock market is getting crushed
Treasuries are rallying
Jobs have gone bye-bye for 9 straight months with no end in sight
Banks do not trust each other
Consumer spending is in the toilet
Foreclosures are soaring
The TED Spread (3 month Treasury vs. 3 month LIBOR) is at an all time high
The Fed Funds Rate fell at the fastest rate in history.

This list does not prove deflation, but I have to think it is consistent with what one would expect in a deflationary environment......

 

[NoStateofMind]

Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

hmm 7900.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: JohnCU

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

hmm 7900.

Wow! That would be about half what it was at its peak!

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon

Originally posted by: JohnCU

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

hmm 7900.

Wow! That would be about half what it was at its peak!

well i'm not dave so i have no idea what it will be, but the way things are going i wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I think we're in the capitulation phase... 1-2 days left.

 

[First]

^ Yup. I'm sinking in at least 2000-3000 over the next 24-48 hours.

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

World markets would not let this happen, there's all sorts of very easy ways to prevent that sort of decline and virtually all these techniques are already in place.

 

[JohnCU]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

World markets would not let this happen, there's all sorts of very easy ways to prevent that sort of decline and virtually all these techniques are already in place.

like what?

 

[jackace]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

World markets would not let this happen, there's all sorts of very easy ways to prevent that sort of decline and virtually all these techniques are already in place.

Yeah I would like to know how they plan to stop it as well. Today many investors and even Bernanke himself said they see things worsening not getting better. Jim Cramer today was saying that depression is "still on the table" at this point and we have to take steps to avoid it or we will likely see it happen.

 

[NoStateofMind]

I don't know what else they could do besides more bailouts/FED liquidity infusions/interest rate manipulations.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: JohnCU

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

World markets would not let this happen, there's all sorts of very easy ways to prevent that sort of decline and virtually all these techniques are already in place.

like what?

1) Government purchases, which act as a monetary stimulus, can infuse credit and confidence when need be (not just take-overs, but also simple things like food stamps).

2) Direct foreign investment in our financial institutions; for example, Japan's largest bank just got the OK to take up to a 24.9% stake in Morgan Stanley.

3) Cutting taxes, which has proven to act as a somewhat effective fiscal stimulus historically (depends on where exactly you cut).

 

[First]

Originally posted by: jackace

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: shira

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Anyone have a prediction on when it will hit the bottom? I think the bottom is 8500. What say you?

If we're really headed for a depression, then a 70 or 80% decline wouldn't be out of the questions (it was 90% at the depth of the Great Depression). The all-time Dow high was 14,164 in October, 2007. 30% of that would be 4249.

So my prediction is: 4200.

World markets would not let this happen, there's all sorts of very easy ways to prevent that sort of decline and virtually all these techniques are already in place.

Yeah I would like to know how they plan to stop it as well. Today many investors and even Bernanke himself said they see things worsening not getting better. Jim Cramer today was saying that depression is "still on the table" at this point and we have to take steps to avoid it or we will likely see it happen.

Bernanke openly admits he got a lot of this wrong, and perhaps more bad performance is to come, as consumer's confidence is currently pretty damn low now. But luckily we're not in a deflationary environment, so wages won't artificially (or in real terms) dip in the future. And the dollar is ticking upwards as well. Btw, Jim Cramer isn't taken very seriously, let's not get crazy here. He's like a sane Chris Matthews for finance.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: OrByte
wow.

~ - 500 down again.

Still waiting for that good ol 'trickle down.'

Trickle down means the peons get to keep their jobs.

 

[Pliablemoose]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=881255718

I've always liked charts... Notice he says everything is off the table if we're in a 1930's scenario.

 

[her209]

John McCain is shitting his pants right now.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
^ Yup. I'm sinking in at least 2000-3000 over the next 24-48 hours.

Ooooh, 2000-3000?

Didn't you just accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is? Where's yours? 2000-3000? Is that all that came out when you smashed your piggy bank?

Look out, big spender coming through!

 

[First]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
^ Yup. I'm sinking in at least 2000-3000 over the next 24-48 hours.

Ooooh, 2000-3000?

Didn't you just accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is? Where's yours? 2000-3000? Is that all that came out when you smashed your piggy bank?

Look out, big spender coming through!

So you openly admit to not putting your money where your mouth is (which you didn't) and now are saying I'm...putting my money where my mouth is. That's some impressive logic. :laugh:

Btw, you didn't make a prediction in that other thread. Will you wimp out of this one too?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Aussie Index is down 4%

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
^ Yup. I'm sinking in at least 2000-3000 over the next 24-48 hours.

Ooooh, 2000-3000?

Didn't you just accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is? Where's yours? 2000-3000? Is that all that came out when you smashed your piggy bank?

Look out, big spender coming through!

HAHAHAH :laugh:

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
^ Yup. I'm sinking in at least 2000-3000 over the next 24-48 hours.

Ooooh, 2000-3000?

Didn't you just accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is? Where's yours? 2000-3000? Is that all that came out when you smashed your piggy bank?

Look out, big spender coming through!

So you openly admit to not putting your money where your mouth is (which you didn't) and now are saying I'm...putting my money where my mouth is. That's some impressive logic. :laugh:

Btw, you didn't make a prediction in that other thread. Will you wimp out of this one too?

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

It wouldn't be that way if the government didn't fuck up all the markets by creating bubbles and changing the rules whenever it wants.

LMAO about LK and Evan. I agree on that! This is a BEAR market with no bottom in sight.

 

[dmcowen674]

Another wild ride even after a massive rate cut by the Fed.

11 am down -200 to 9200 but at 10:30 it was up 200

Where the ball lands on the roulette wheel is any body's guess.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

Then you're not very well informed, since long-term investors who invest for 30 years (those with balls who don't panic and invest in gold) have averaged a real return on equities of 6.8% per year over the past 204 years. That's 1802-2006, a 204 year sample size. See page 12 Table 1-1 in the first chapter of Jeremy J. Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

Like I thought, you can't man up and make your own predictions on how the market will perform. F'ing e-wimps these days. :laugh:

So if you invest in gold you have no balls? Tell that to my bank account, up 2 grand. How much did yours go up in the last week? If you're *smart* you put it in gold. And if you're *smart* you'll put it back in the market after the dust settles. Use your brains people, jesus christ. It has nothing to do with having balls but a brain. :thumbsdown: