Dow Below 10,000

[Engineer]

Another down day, even with worldwide rate cuts. Another 200 points of so shave off.

 

[Dissipate]

Close:

Dow 9,252.53 -194.58 -2.06%

Ouch.

Will we see 8,000 soon?

 

[shira]

Originally posted by: SP33DemonIf you're *smart* you put it in gold. And if you're *smart* you'll put it back in the market after the dust settles. Use your brains people, jesus christ. It has nothing to do with having balls but a brain. :thumbsdown:

And just how do you know when "the dust has settled"? If the market has a -5% day, is that the bottom? If the market goes up 5% and then another 5% and then another 5%, has a bull market begun?

While you're guessing tops and bottoms, you can miss out on a lot of upside.

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Another down day, even with worldwide rate cuts. Another 200 points of so shave off.

Probably would have been an up day, except for a lot of profit taking in the last half hour. I actually ended up a little. Of course, back when the market was melting down I dumped two main stocks. I've since bought back into one, which went a little down. The other one went up 14% today.

The market was very skittish still today, but basically a normal day-for once. If we can string together a few of these that will be a great first step.

Frankly, I was looking at the remaining stocks I own the other day, trying to figure out what else to bail from and I couldn't pick any. At today's prices there are insane bargains out there, if you have nerves of steel and a long time line.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Thump553
Probably would have been an up day, except for a lot of profit taking in the last half hour. I actually ended up a little. Of course, back when the market was melting down I dumped two main stocks. I've since bought back into one, which went a little down. The other one went up 14% today.

The market was very skittish still today, but basically a normal day-for once. If we can string together a few of these that will be a great first step.

Frankly, I was looking at the remaining stocks I own the other day, trying to figure out what else to bail from and I couldn't pick any. At today's prices there are insane bargains out there, if you have nerves of steel and a long time line.

With analysts predicting a DOW of 7000 by next year you are crazy to have stocks right now.

 

[irishScott]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Thump553
Probably would have been an up day, except for a lot of profit taking in the last half hour. I actually ended up a little. Of course, back when the market was melting down I dumped two main stocks. I've since bought back into one, which went a little down. The other one went up 14% today.

The market was very skittish still today, but basically a normal day-for once. If we can string together a few of these that will be a great first step.

Frankly, I was looking at the remaining stocks I own the other day, trying to figure out what else to bail from and I couldn't pick any. At today's prices there are insane bargains out there, if you have nerves of steel and a long time line.

With analysts predicting a DOW of 7000 by next year you are crazy to have stocks right now.

We're in uncharted waters economically speaking. Everyone has a theory, but no one knows for sure where we're going. Hard to believe any of these "experts" when another "expert" contradicts them on the next page, with just as much apparently valid evidence.

So do you go high risk potentially high payoff, or stay safe with little to no payoff. This is not a new question. Just has more significance now.

 

[wwswimming]

wow ! the "Dow 10K" thread has been resurrected. it's now beating the
Dow 9500 Thread for post count.

the question is, where will the Dow be in May 2009 ? the Dow was at 14K in
October 2007, then hit another peak at 13,000 in May 2008

http://finance.yahoo.com/echar...symbol=%5EDJI;range=2y

since people are starting to compare this to 1937, when there was about a
40% slide over a one year period, i'm wondering ... how it compares.

Dow with Log Scale going back to 1928

from 13,000 to 8,000 is about a 40% slide (40% & 13,000 ~ 5200).

i'm trying to be slightly optimistic & to think the rate of decline we've
seen during September & October will slow, so that the Dow hits a
plateau as opposed to going off a cliff - and be at 8000 in May 2008.

FWIW, Cramer is talking 7700.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: irishScott
We're in uncharted waters economically speaking.

Everyone has a theory, but no one knows for sure where we're going.

Hard to believe any of these "experts" when another "expert" contradicts them on the next page, with just as much apparently valid evidence.

So do you go high risk potentially high payoff, or stay safe with little to no payoff. This is not a new question. Just has more significance now.

Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Thump553
Probably would have been an up day, except for a lot of profit taking in the last half hour. I actually ended up a little. Of course, back when the market was melting down I dumped two main stocks. I've since bought back into one, which went a little down. The other one went up 14% today.

The market was very skittish still today, but basically a normal day-for once. If we can string together a few of these that will be a great first step.

Frankly, I was looking at the remaining stocks I own the other day, trying to figure out what else to bail from and I couldn't pick any. At today's prices there are insane bargains out there, if you have nerves of steel and a long time line.

With analysts predicting a DOW of 7000 by next year you are crazy to have stocks right now.

Correction, SOME analysts. If there was a general consensus that the DOW would be at 7000 by next year, it would be there now. It can move as quickly as a thought. It is at what the market thinks it is worth right now. An individual may correctly guess where the DOW will go, but if there is a general consensus, it will be exactly where the general consensus wants it and believes it should be, always, irrefutably (aside from if trading is forced to a stop, like in Russia, where investors think it's worth so little they want to keep shedding value but the market gets cut off).

FWIW, Cramer is talking 7700.

If he believes that, he'll short the market (although I am not sure how possible that is at the moment).

Unfortunately, I see that at the beginning of the great depression the dow went from around 342 down to a lovely 42 or so, which is outrageous. That would have us under 2k following the same kind of insanity.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: irishScott
We're in uncharted waters economically speaking.

Everyone has a theory, but no one knows for sure where we're going.

Hard to believe any of these "experts" when another "expert" contradicts them on the next page, with just as much apparently valid evidence.

So do you go high risk potentially high payoff, or stay safe with little to no payoff. This is not a new question. Just has more significance now.

Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me Just listen to me

Great post :thumbsup:

 

[First]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

Then you're not very well informed, since long-term investors who invest for 30 years (those with balls who don't panic and invest in gold) have averaged a real return on equities of 6.8% per year over the past 204 years. That's 1802-2006, a 204 year sample size. See page 12 Table 1-1 in the first chapter of Jeremy J. Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

Like I thought, you can't man up and make your own predictions on how the market will perform. F'ing e-wimps these days. :laugh:

So if you invest in gold you have no balls? Tell that to my bank account, up 2 grand. How much did yours go up in the last week? If you're *smart* you put it in gold. And if you're *smart* you'll put it back in the market after the dust settles. Use your brains people, jesus christ. It has nothing to do with having balls but a brain. :thumbsdown:

Reactionary people buy gold, that's not exactly a radical concept. Look at where gold has gone the past quarter century. If you bought gold around $250-300 about 9-10 years ago, though, good for you, that was smart. But the real return on gold historically doesn't touch equities, and that's just a fact.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

Then you're not very well informed, since long-term investors who invest for 30 years (those with balls who don't panic and invest in gold) have averaged a real return on equities of 6.8% per year over the past 204 years. That's 1802-2006, a 204 year sample size. See page 12 Table 1-1 in the first chapter of Jeremy J. Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

Like I thought, you can't man up and make your own predictions on how the market will perform. F'ing e-wimps these days. :laugh:

Whatever you say, e-tough guy.

Ooooh, very impressive resume, LOL.

What's your resume look like?

Plenty of professional experience, I'm currently the Director of IT at a 70M/yr company.

Not that my experience really matters, I'm not trying to convince anybody that I can predict the future. Maybe when Evan's balls drop and he has a real job on his resume people will take him seriously.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

Then you're not very well informed, since long-term investors who invest for 30 years (those with balls who don't panic and invest in gold) have averaged a real return on equities of 6.8% per year over the past 204 years. That's 1802-2006, a 204 year sample size. See page 12 Table 1-1 in the first chapter of Jeremy J. Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

Like I thought, you can't man up and make your own predictions on how the market will perform. F'ing e-wimps these days. :laugh:

Whatever you say, e-tough guy.

Ooooh, very impressive resume, LOL.

Even now you still can't man up with a prediction. Sad.

Why would I make a prediction? I'm not trying to tell anybody how things are going to shake out. Only that you're wrong and haven't got a clue what the fuck you're talking about.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb

Originally posted by: BoberFett

I've never invested in the stock market, why would I start now? I realized during the internet bubble that the whole thing is a scam. It's as rigged as a Vegas slot machine: the house always wins.

Then you're not very well informed, since long-term investors who invest for 30 years (those with balls who don't panic and invest in gold) have averaged a real return on equities of 6.8% per year over the past 204 years. That's 1802-2006, a 204 year sample size. See page 12 Table 1-1 in the first chapter of Jeremy J. Siegel's book Stocks for the Long Run.

My prediction? I predict that over the next few months we're going to see you and LK backpedal so fast you could win last year's Tour de France.

Like I thought, you can't man up and make your own predictions on how the market will perform. F'ing e-wimps these days. :laugh:

Whatever you say, e-tough guy.

Ooooh, very impressive resume, LOL.

Even now you still can't man up with a prediction. Sad.

Why would I make a prediction? I'm not trying to tell anybody how things are going to shake out. Only that you're wrong and haven't got a clue what the fuck you're talking about.

How can I be wrong when it'll take at least another 1 or 2 years for my prediction to pan out? Again, I've made a couple predictions but have always maintained that economics is not an exact science. I merely call you out on your complete and utter nonsense, that's all. I've been saying we were in recession for months now and that obviously is likely to come true once we see the Q4 stats. You, on the other hand, still fail to come up with even a hint of a prediction because you're all too aware of your own shortcomings. So meh, no skin off my back.

And sorry kiddo, but no one is impressed you work for a 70M/yr company in podunk Minneapolis. I work for a $1B/yr company in Los Angeles, I guess I'm 14 times the man you are! :roll:

 

[mshan]

A bottom, but not necessarily "the" bottom.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=882485741&play=1

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: BoberFett

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
ZOMG! "director" of IT at a $70M/yr company. A freshmen in finance probably has more knowledge than you in finance.

When your balls drop and you get a shred of actual finance experience your finance/economics opinions might actually be worth more than the bandwidth you're wasting. Otherwise, I've forgtten more about finance/economics than you'll ever know.

And again, for the learning impaired: I don't give two shits about your knowledge. A lot of good all those experienced financiers have done. Stupid fuckers need $700B to get their houses in orders. If any of you dipshits on Wall Street knew what you were doing we wouldn't be where we are.

Like I said, pay me $480M and I can run a company into the ground like the best of them.

:beer: and :thumbsup:

:laugh:

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
We neeneed you guys to spread the gospel of liberty, truth, justice, and the right to shoot people you disagree with!

That's exactly what you support. Don't want to pony up the taxes to Wall Street for the bailout? Time to go to jail or get shot!

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
We neeneed you guys to spread the gospel of liberty, truth, justice, and the right to shoot people you disagree with!

That's exactly what you support. Don't want to pony up the taxes to Wall Street for the bailout? Time to go to jail or get shot!

I have never said this nor would I ever support some lunacy about shooting people for not supporting the bailout.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
I have never said this nor would I ever support some lunacy about shooting people for not supporting the bailout.

First they get served legal documents, then if they ignore those assets are seized, and if they attempt to stop that then an arrest attempt is made. If they resist arrest using a deadly weapon like a gun, they are shot.

So the options are prison time/asset seizure or death. What am I missing here?

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
I have never said this nor would I ever support some lunacy about shooting people for not supporting the bailout.

First they get served legal documents, then if they ignore those assets are seized, and if they attempt to stop that then an arrest attempt is made. If they resist arrest using a deadly weapon like a gun, they are shot.

So the options are prison time/asset seizure or death. What am I missing here?

WTF does the bailout have to do with paying your taxes generally? Unless you live in the woods or a bunker, the entire U.S. population uses public services (roads, schools, FDA-approved drugs/food, etc.), so it's perfectly reasonable to ask everyone to pay taxes. You're not that guy from a few weeks ago that doesn't want to pay taxes?

Btw, if $700B is all that is used to buy up these securities at mark-to-market, then the taxpayers won't be paying anywhere near $700B. And it's well worth it so people don't lose their jobs.

 

[NoStateofMind]

1

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
WTF does the bailout have to do with paying your taxes generally? Unless you live in the woods or a bunker, the entire U.S. population uses public services (roads, schools, FDA-approved drugs/food, etc.), so it's perfectly reasonable to ask everyone to pay taxes. You're not that guy from a few weeks ago that doesn't want to pay taxes?

It has to do with the fact that the money is extracted at a point of a gun. Those services are forced into existence, I have no say in receiving those services or not receiving them. It's been decided by the horde (i.e. people like you). The FDA is not a service btw, it is a detriment. The same with schools that produce the likes of brainwashed propagandists like yourself. Total detriment to society.

Btw, if $700B is all that is used to buy up these securities at mark-to-market, then the taxpayers won't be paying anywhere near $700B. And it's well worth it so people don't lose their jobs.

Mark to market has been suspended. Or do you not understand your beloved bailout plan as much as you are leading on? Could you be talking out of your ass? No couldn't be....

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
WTF does the bailout have to do with paying your taxes generally? Unless you live in the woods or a bunker, the entire U.S. population uses public services (roads, schools, FDA-approved drugs/food, etc.), so it's perfectly reasonable to ask everyone to pay taxes. You're not that guy from a few weeks ago that doesn't want to pay taxes?

It has to do with the fact that the money is extracted at a point of a gun. Those services are forced into existence, I have no say in receiving those services or not receiving them. It's been decided by the horde (i.e. people like you). The FDA is not a service btw, it is a detriment. The same with schools that produce the likes of brainwashed propagandists like yourself. Total detriment to society.

Btw, if $700B is all that is used to buy up these securities at mark-to-market, then the taxpayers won't be paying anywhere near $700B. And it's well worth it so people don't lose their jobs.

Mark to market has been suspended. Or do you not understand your beloved bailout plan as much as you are leading on? Could you be talking out of your ass? No couldn't be....

It was suggested to be suspended, if FASB didn't take action. However, as far as I can tell, it hasn't been suspended since FASB did clarify the rules. If you have evidence to the contrary I'd be interested.

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
WTF does the bailout have to do with paying your taxes generally? Unless you live in the woods or a bunker, the entire U.S. population uses public services (roads, schools, FDA-approved drugs/food, etc.), so it's perfectly reasonable to ask everyone to pay taxes. You're not that guy from a few weeks ago that doesn't want to pay taxes?

It has to do with the fact that the money is extracted at a point of a gun. Those services are forced into existence, I have no say in receiving those services or not receiving them. It's been decided by the horde (i.e. people like you). The FDA is not a service btw, it is a detriment. The same with schools that produce the likes of brainwashed propagandists like yourself. Total detriment to society.

Btw, if $700B is all that is used to buy up these securities at mark-to-market, then the taxpayers won't be paying anywhere near $700B. And it's well worth it so people don't lose their jobs.

Mark to market has been suspended. Or do you not understand your beloved bailout plan as much as you are leading on? Could you be talking out of your ass? No couldn't be....

Schools are a detriment to society? Wow.

 

[StageLeft]

Regarding the FDA, it's far from perfect, but I have no faith whatsoever in the ability of private business to regulate our safety in any way. The only way it would do it is by subscribing to a central council that we trust; companies that don't go by its guidelines we'd know are fringe and not safe. I suppose such a council could be callled...wait for it...the FDA, or thereabouts. In our society it's possible to be a fly by night, sucker people into things while you make your fortunes, and piss off before they're the wiser. That is reality. Left to run amok if we're talking about things like medicines, we'd lose all faith in drugs, just for one example.