Dow Below 10,000

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: TridenTBoy3555
LOL, Dow down almost 200 points already today!!! Rofl Yeah, stocks doin' great!

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

 

[BigDH01]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

How is that a result of the government being out of touch? They are trying to adjust to the reality of a liquidity constrained economy, constrained for good *and* bad companies.

 

[mshan]

"The following observation is a thin-reed one and admittedly non-rigorous, but it might be more important than a lot of my fancy analysis and logic.

For what it is worth, this is what I have been seeing in the last week -- and, quite frankly, it makes me more optimistic.

As readers know, a constant theme of mine has been that the vortex (and continued supply) of selling from the hedge fund liquidations would serve as a significant headwind to any meaningful market advance.

Beginning last Monday, I began to see a number of big hedge funds in the S&P 500 futures pit, boldly selling futures to hedge their core long holdings. As the market dropped precipitously on both Friday afternoon and Monday afternoon, they got ever more aggressive -- according to my sources, more aggressive today than at almost any point in a decade or more.

If my observation is correct -- and we will get some sense of this on Friday afternoon when the size of the professionally hedged S&P futures positions are released; our thesis will be proven correct if there is a large increase in open interest -- it will be proof positive that those hedge funds are now shorting the hell out of S&P futures in order to hedge their cratering longs. Indeed, some of those hedge funds might now even be overhedged and short S&P futures, as it has been working.

This strategy is a classic tactic one sees at panic/capitulation lows as hedge-hoggers sell short what they can sell easily -- the S&P futures market is deep and liquid -- while they retain what they can't sell easily (i.e., large blocks of individual equities).

I have always been concerned about where the marginal buyer would come from, especially with the SEC ban, and, again, if I am correct, the momentum of a rising market into the all-important year-end could now cause a reverse panic to the upside as hedge fund managers that have overhedged their portfolio with futures buy them back and cover their positions just as fast as they sold them short.

Indeed, it is quite possible that those managers could lose both ways -- on the upside on their short futures positions (which some have overhedged because it's been working!) and as their core holdings fail to perform in line with an advancing market.

That's what I see happening recently in the S&P futures pit, and even if I am only half correct, those hedge-hoggers could be on a sinking ship without a life preserver as the stock market might have bottomed under the weight and intensity of their aggressive short selling of S&P futures.

In summary, investors and traders might now be looking for the answer to the market's recent drubbing in all the wrong places. The fundamental news is bad, but this is known and is arguably being cured by public and private sector initiatives. Rather, it could be that the recent behavior of hedge funds -- namely, their imperious and aggressive shorting of S&P futures -- is even worse than the fundamentals and might be a root cause for[/u] the precipitous market drop[/u] over the past 10 days.

Accordingly, my investment disposition is now turning sunny."

Link

 

[BigDH01]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

How is that a result of the government being out of touch? They are trying to adjust to the reality of a liquidity constrained economy, constrained for good *and* bad companies.

The government, by default, is always out of touch. They didn't restrain the FMs, they let loose the ibanks, and they've been telling everyone for years that the economy is fine. The government, in general, is as out of touch now as they were then. Chasing one impending disaster to the next and putting a lot of dollars at risk to do so.

This whole financial catastrophe is a result of the government being "out of touch." Either that or simply "in the bag" for various interests.

 

[heyheybooboo]

The longer Bernanke talks the lower the DJIA goes ... down 248 now

:shocked:

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

How is that a result of the government being out of touch? They are trying to adjust to the reality of a liquidity constrained economy, constrained for good *and* bad companies.

The government, by default, is always out of touch. They didn't restrain the FMs, they let loose the ibanks, and they've been telling everyone for years that the economy is fine. The government, in general, is as out of touch now as they were then. Chasing one impending disaster to the next and putting a lot of dollars at risk to do so.

This whole financial catastrophe is a result of the government being "out of touch." Either that or simply "in the bag" for various interests.

I agree that they were out of touch for the problem, but are they for the solution. People never provide alternatives, they just complain about the situation.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

How is that a result of the government being out of touch? They are trying to adjust to the reality of a liquidity constrained economy, constrained for good *and* bad companies.

The government, by default, is always out of touch. They didn't restrain the FMs, they let loose the ibanks, and they've been telling everyone for years that the economy is fine. The government, in general, is as out of touch now as they were then. Chasing one impending disaster to the next and putting a lot of dollars at risk to do so.

This whole financial catastrophe is a result of the government being "out of touch." Either that or simply "in the bag" for various interests.

I agree that they were out of touch for the problem, but are they for the solution. People never provide alternatives, they just complain about the situation.

My solution is a total shakeup and eviction of those who missed the boat the first time. Let's not give them a chance to miss it again.

 

[BigDH01]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BigDH01

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
9922, markets cheering Fed buying commercial paper. 7000 is still around the corner, right? lol

Down 114 now. Was 200 a few minutes ago. Bernanke just said "Economic outlook 'has worsened'; Fed must consider if current interest rate policy 'remains appropriate.' "

Paint me SHOCKED. <- sarcasm

The market is clearly poised for a major crash or major rally, it's moving so quickly when it does.

It's interesting that it is down this much, especially in light of the Fed's announcement of direct CP and ABCP purchases on a 3-month term basis. There are some caveats, but the program is pretty reasonable. Too bad the Fed is months behind the ECB. Although, this effort should free up quite a bit of liquidity.

Either investors are completely out of touch and wholly panicked or the government is completely out of touch.

Government is out of touch. Just like last week, the passing of the bailout forced investors to step back and actually look at the economy instead of just focusing on that single piece of news. They didn't like what they saw which resulted in a sell off. Investors are easily distracted by bailouts, Fed loans, and interest rate cuts, but the reality is that the economy is still in the crapper and many institutions are in bad shape. You can only distract people for so long.

How is that a result of the government being out of touch? They are trying to adjust to the reality of a liquidity constrained economy, constrained for good *and* bad companies.

The government, by default, is always out of touch. They didn't restrain the FMs, they let loose the ibanks, and they've been telling everyone for years that the economy is fine. The government, in general, is as out of touch now as they were then. Chasing one impending disaster to the next and putting a lot of dollars at risk to do so.

This whole financial catastrophe is a result of the government being "out of touch." Either that or simply "in the bag" for various interests.

I agree that they were out of touch for the problem, but are they for the solution. People never provide alternatives, they just complain about the situation.

The bailout should've involved taking mandatory interests in the companies that use the service. A strict timeline should've been put in place to describe regulation reform and when it would be done. There should have also been tough laws describing the lobbyist/politician relationship. Term limits would've been nice as well. Things to prevent the kind of corruption that helped facilitate the current crisis. I highly doubt we'll see any reform now that the bailout has passed (the banks will flood Capitol Hill with enough lobbying money to prevent any sort of real reform).

I'm thinking about ways we can take advantage of the current turmoil and public support to ensure regulation gets enacted to prevent this from happening in the future. It also provides a good opportunity to clamp down on corruption and throw corporate fraudsters in jail. Hopefully, the FBI investigation will yield some excellent results.

I'm only going to complain about how we got into this mess and how, thus far, none of the causes have been addressed. We seem to only have a lot of anger and promises. We both knew the Fed's game. Bernanke will print money and deliver Benjamins to everyone's front door before he allows deflation. We don't know if this is the right solution yet.

 

[Thump553]

mshan:

The article you posted (a few posts above) is a real eye-opener. It's one of those things that a week from now we either say "of course, it was obvious" or it's totally meaningless.

A couple of my stocks are solid companies that are heavily owned by hedge funds and they have been sinking fast than the general market. This is contrary to Kass' theory, but I'm suspicious enough to see manipulation of the current panic under every rock.

I'm also guessing that a lot more hedge funds are going belly up before the end of the year.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: mshan

"The following observation is a thin-reed one and admittedly non-rigorous, but it might be more important than a lot of my fancy analysis and logic.

For what it is worth, this is what I have been seeing in the last week -- and, quite frankly, it makes me more optimistic.

As readers know, a constant theme of mine has been that the vortex (and continued supply) of selling from the hedge fund liquidations would serve as a significant headwind to any meaningful market advance.

Beginning last Monday, I began to see a number of big hedge funds in the S&P 500 futures pit, boldly selling futures to hedge their core long holdings. As the market dropped precipitously on both Friday afternoon and Monday afternoon, they got ever more aggressive -- according to my sources, more aggressive today than at almost any point in a decade or more.

If my observation is correct -- and we will get some sense of this on Friday afternoon when the size of the professionally hedged S&P futures positions are released; our thesis will be proven correct if there is a large increase in open interest -- it will be proof positive that those hedge funds are now shorting the hell out of S&P futures in order to hedge their cratering longs. Indeed, some of those hedge funds might now even be overhedged and short S&P futures, as it has been working.

This strategy is a classic tactic one sees at panic/capitulation lows as hedge-hoggers sell short what they can sell easily -- the S&P futures market is deep and liquid -- while they retain what they can't sell easily (i.e., large blocks of individual equities).

I have always been concerned about where the marginal buyer would come from, especially with the SEC ban, and, again, if I am correct, the momentum of a rising market into the all-important year-end could now cause a reverse panic to the upside as hedge fund managers that have overhedged their portfolio with futures buy them back and cover their positions just as fast as they sold them short.

Indeed, it is quite possible that those managers could lose both ways -- on the upside on their short futures positions (which some have overhedged because it's been working!) and as their core holdings fail to perform in line with an advancing market.

That's what I see happening recently in the S&P futures pit, and even if I am only half correct, those hedge-hoggers could be on a sinking ship without a life preserver as the stock market might have bottomed under the weight and intensity of their aggressive short selling of S&P futures.

In summary, investors and traders might now be looking for the answer to the market's recent drubbing in all the wrong places. The fundamental news is bad, but this is known and is arguably being cured by public and private sector initiatives. Rather, it could be that the recent behavior of hedge funds -- namely, their imperious and aggressive shorting of S&P futures -- is even worse than the fundamentals and might be a root cause for[/u] the precipitous market drop[/u] over the past 10 days.

Accordingly, my investment disposition is now turning sunny."

Link

Heh, I think it's more likely the hedge funds are liquidating their holdings. Lots of people are pulling their hedge fund investments out and many hedge funds are shrinking big time. Hedge funds has done very poorly in the last couple of years and there is just no justification for paying those funds the big bucks with all the complex trading system only to end up performing worse then the market, and not just little worse but much worse.

 

[dmcowen674]

Looks like another -300 day 9600

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: ironwing

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: PingSpike
Kind of glad I'm young and didn't bother with a 401K for the first part of my working career. I only have like $4000 to lose in mine.

Sucks about my savings though, I'm hoping hyper inflation doesn't hose those.

The hyper inflation scenario IMHO is unlikely.

More likely stagflation, or deflation.

Quoted and bolded for laughs later

It is far more likely than inflation at this point. That or it'll counteract inflationary pressures.

I'm not so sure about that. It seems that debtor nations plunging into economic downturns tend toward inflation while creditor nations head toward deflation. Since the US is now a the grand prize winning debtor nation, high inflation is a possible result.

It all depends. Creditor or debtor nation doesn't matter was much as how much credit was available and how much is available currently.

We are facing massive deflation from housing, energy, and food, at this point.

Bahahahahahahah energy and food going down Bahahahhahahaha

Whatever stuff you're taking there in New York is a doozy.

 

[Dissipate]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Looks like another -300 day 9600

Make that:

Dow 9,519.99 -435.51 -4.37% @ 3:45

 

[NoStateofMind]

-465

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Dissipate

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Looks like another -300 day 9600

Make that:

Dow 9,519.99 -435.51 -4.37% @ 3:45

below 9500 now -450 10 minutes left

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Close -304 10021

Tomorrow it'll close below 9500....

Right on the money, nice job

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: MovingTarget
It looks like it may be closing just under 10k. Maybe we should break out the "Dow 10,000" hats tomorrow and party like it is the late 90's.

Ill be suprised if we arent around 9000 by the end of the week.

Looking like this.

Don't worry the rich will pour their money back into oil after the election.

 

[Slew Foot]

Wham

 

[Pliablemoose]

9461

 

[StageLeft]

Another day another 5% drop, oh well.

I do feel much better after buying some bonds yesterday before today happened. I was way too late to get out of 100% stocks, but better late than never, and I'm still mostly in stocks and buying them for whenever the recovery happens (tries not to laugh).

 

[Dissipate]

Close Oct 07:

Dow 9,457.94 -497.56 -5.00%
Nasdaq 1,754.88 -108.08 -5.80%
S&P 500 996.89 -60.00 -5.68%

OUCH!! S&P 500 below 1000!!!

 

[OrByte]

wow.

~ - 500 down again.

Still waiting for that good ol 'trickle down.'

 

[Pliablemoose]

I made $3K, I have a shitload of GLD & SLV, goddamn Apple is down 50%