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Donald Trump Jumped the shark. Place your bet.

Did Trump jump the shark?

  • Yeah he will start losing now at the polls

  • Nothing can stop him, he will keep winning and get nominated.

Results are only viewable after voting.
Hugo Drax

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Looks like from here on out your going to see a decline in his polls/ratings. The "Women must be punished" "The Heidi pictures/wife fights" and the campaign manager issue. Trump peak has been reached a few weeks ago, I suspect it will now decline and his fadeout begins.
 
The problem is there isn't a better alternative that is still in the race and has any shot. I think Trump is a complete whack job, idiot, but I'd take him over Cruz without too much thought.
 
I think the novelty of Trump is wearing off and people are actually seeing that he is incompetent on many issues. He's got a tough fight for the rest of the states.
 
Trump's followers, who constitute a little less than half of the GOP voters in the country, are not put off by these things at all.
 
Peak Trump occurred in Feb. 2016. He started falling around Mar 1 and hasn't recovered yet.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I used the Clinton vs Trump graph to filter out the effects of people like Bush and Rubio dropping out. Otherwise if you just look at the GOP side, it appears like Trump is doing better simply because there are fewer people running against him.

He is also just a bit shy of the number of delegates that he needs to be guaranteed the nomination at this point in the contest:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

So, unless he does a bit better in the next few states than he has been, it will be a brokered convention. Unless something major happens, I don't see how he can do BETTER in the next few states given that he is doing WORSE in the polls. He is also likely to lose in Wisconsin, the next state to vote, so that won't help his cause.

It really looks like it'll be a brokered convention. Here are some predictions such as 1208 out of 1237; just shy of what he needs:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-most-important-states-on-trumps-path-to-1237-delegates/
 
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I've been convinced Trump blew it multiple times before (dissing the Pope is one the pops right into mind). I've decided I cannot predict the tolerance for GOP primary voters for erraticness and bluster that they embrace as a fresh voice.

Absent a total collapse I don't see how anyone is going to deny him the nomination. Will I be wrong yet again?
 
I don't think there will be any lack of enthusiasm when the Party sets to fucking him at the convention.
 
Thump553 said:
I've been convinced Trump blew it multiple times before (dissing the Pope is one the pops right into mind). I've decided I cannot predict the tolerance for GOP primary voters for erraticness and bluster that they embrace as a fresh voice.

Absent a total collapse I don't see how anyone is going to deny him the nomination. Will I be wrong yet again?
Click to expand...

If he can't win on the first vote a lot of things can happen, the cornholio grande looming large in the greater scheme of things.

Realistically, their strategists must know that their chances of winning are low & even lower thanks to the efforts of the Donald. They'll avoid rewarding him if they possibly can. That would be stupid. He really, really fucked it up for them in a way the Dems could never accomplish.
 
If I thought for a second anyone who would support Trump was capable of being a decent human being, I'd think those statements would hurt him. As it is, the same shitty fucks who like Trump will only like him more as he says more and more shitty fucking things. And somehow, he may actually not be any worse than Cruz.
 
Thump553 said:
I've been convinced Trump blew it multiple times before (dissing the Pope is one the pops right into mind). I've decided I cannot predict the tolerance for GOP primary voters for erraticness and bluster that they embrace as a fresh voice.

Absent a total collapse I don't see how anyone is going to deny him the nomination. Will I be wrong yet again?
Click to expand...

Don't really care if he gets "denied" or not; what I want to know is who would both be a credible nominee and be willing to accept the job? Are they really going to bring back Romney? I guess Paul Ryan could, but why would he risk all that political capital when he's already Speaker and could run on his own merits at some point?

Any candidates who have a credible shot in the general election probably wouldn't get installed in a brokered convention because they won't be acceptable to the hardcore right-wing base. The two I could see actually wining would be Collin Powell (if he's finally willing to step up in post-Obama era so he can reassure his wife that a black POTUS isn't a guaranteed assassination), or Susana Martinez (governor of New Mexico). Beyond that, who has a legitimate shot?
 
soundforbjt said:
In 1952 Ike only had around 25% of the delegates going into the convention, he won the nomination and became President.
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What?

Eisenhower had the delegate lead going into the 1952 Republican convention with almost 600 delegates....second was Taft with 500 delegates. And this was before "Fair Play".

Adding up all delegates available, 1206, Eisenhower was only 6 delegates from having 50% of all the delegates available, a far cry from "around 25%."
 
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glenn1 said:
Don't really care if he gets "denied" or not; what I want to know is who would both be a credible nominee and be willing to accept the job? Are they really going to bring back Romney? I guess Paul Ryan could, but why would he risk all that political capital when he's already Speaker and could run on his own merits at some point?

Any candidates who have a credible shot in the general election probably wouldn't get installed in a brokered convention because they won't be acceptable to the hardcore right-wing base. The two I could see actually wining would be Collin Powell (if he's finally willing to step up in post-Obama era so he can reassure his wife that a black POTUS isn't a guaranteed assassination), or Susana Martinez (governor of New Mexico). Beyond that, who has a legitimate shot?
Click to expand...

It's like anything else- too much inbreeding weakens the whole line. Repubs' economic ideology collapsed on itself in the wake of the Ownership Society & they've badly over-sold the base on a variety of other issues where they really can't deliver. They've just become more strident over the last 35 years. Otherwise, the last time they had an original idea they disavowed it when the ACA passed.

They also failed miserably on foreign policy, particularly in Iraq, but they obviously won't owe up to that, either. Their hard line rhetoric wrt Iran persists to this day even though it never has been constructive.

The reason they don't have great candidates is that they're not fit to lead, not with their heads buried in denial over their own failures.
 
Meghan54 said:
What?

Eisenhower had the delegate lead going into the 1952 Republican convention with almost 600 delegates....second was Taft with 500 delegates. And this was before "Fair Play".
Click to expand...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates...e-called-there-have-been-more-than-you-think/

Dwight Eisenhower entered the 1952 convention having won just 26.3 percent of the delegates in the primaries. But he still went on to win the nomination over Ohio Sen. Robert Taft in the last true brokered convention for either party.
Click to expand...
 
Donald trump will ride a pair of sharks like skiis and jump the sharks over ramps while gargling on his own balls and sucking his own johnson. He also might beat Hillary in the General Election if she manages to beat Bernie Sanders.
 
BurnItDwn said:
Donald trump will ride a pair of sharks like skiis and jump the sharks over ramps while gargling on his own balls and sucking his own johnson. He also might beat Hillary in the General Election if she manages to beat Bernie Sanders.
Click to expand...
Mental picture I didn't need to ever see.
 
Wth Trump running for President, America is running for President. Self hating liberals and conservatives just can't come to terms with and face who we are. Donald Trump is us looking back out of the mirror.
 
Zorba said:
The problem is there isn't a better alternative that is still in the race and has any shot. I think Trump is a complete whack job, idiot, but I'd take him over Cruz without too much thought.
Click to expand...

this.

Nothing can stop him from getting the nomination...or at least being the primary republican vote-getter in a 3-candidate general if that happens.

But he ain't winning POTUS.
 
BurnItDwn said:
Donald trump will ride a pair of sharks like skiis and jump the sharks over ramps while gargling on his own balls and sucking his own johnson. He also might beat Hillary in the General Election if she manages to beat Bernie Sanders.
Click to expand...

brycejones said:
Mental picture I didn't need to ever see.
Click to expand...

Fuck it. I would vote for Trump if he rode shark skis over a bunch of sharks while sucking his own johnson.
 
zinfamous said:
this.

Nothing can stop him from getting the nomination...or at least being the primary republican vote-getter in a 3-candidate general if that happens.

But he ain't winning POTUS.
Click to expand...

I wish I had enough faith in this country to be confidant about your last line.
 
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