News [Digitimes] Intel shortage likely to continue through 2020

[jpiniero]

Intel CPU shortages likely to persist through end-2020

Shortages of Intel's PC processors are likely to persist through the end of 2020, prompting notebook makers to adopt AMD's chips in more of their notebooks including business models, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Ooh, this is bad. Doubly bad is that it seems that OEMs are finally fed up and are starting a push to AMD now.

The shortage of course is because of the really awful 10 nm yield and the 14 nm die hog that is Cooper Lake.

 

[DrMrLordX]

AMD could be really cleaning house right now if they had prioritized notebook-class CPU development. Who knew? Renoir and Dali should still do well though.

 

[Dave2150]

I'm not surprised Intel have a shortage. Many businesses are refreshing old Windows Server 2008 systems, Windows 7 systems and upgrading for better performance. Over 99% of these are Intel based, thanks to Dell having hardly any AMD offerings and most IT solution designers not wanting to be "that guy" making a 'mistake' by convincing boards/product managers to change from 'reliable' Intel to AMD.

I work for a medium sized MSP in the UK, and sadly don't offer a single AMD solution, both because Dell don't offer them and because the decision makers are all so used to Intel.

AMD need to work very hard to get into higher margin business solutions if they want to cause any real damage to Intel.

 

[moinmoin]

AMD could be really cleaning house right now if they had prioritized notebook-class CPU development. Who knew? Renoir and Dali should still do well though.

H2 should be interesting with AMD getting a bigger share of TSMC's 7nm wafers. Best case it will be still too little, worst case it will be too much and too late.

 

[DrMrLordX]

H2 should be interesting with AMD getting a bigger share of TSMC's 7nm wafers. Best case it will be still too little, worst case it will be too much and too late.

I'm leaning towards "too late". AMD may surprise us with widespread availability of Renoir straight out of the gate, especially the 8c parts. But I'm not betting on it.

 

[coercitiv]

I'm leaning towards "too late". AMD may surprise us with widespread availability of Renoir straight out of the gate, especially the 8c parts. But I'm not betting on it.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Renoir was clearly built with good production numbers in mind: lower than expected cache, lower than expected CU count, and yet high core-count that can efficiently cover 15-65W with just one chip.

Sounds to me like AMD did their homework. Let's wait a quarter or two.

 

[maddie]

Isn't this is a sort of best case scenario, by assuming no further problems. Although, the better AMD does, the smaller Intel supply problems become.

 

[moinmoin]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Renoir was clearly built with good production numbers in mind: lower than expected cache, lower than expected CU count, and yet high core-count that can efficiently cover 15-65W with just one chip.

Sounds to me like AMD did their homework. Let's wait a quarter or two.

Indeed. In a way, these being APUs, with the Zeppelin like high core count this is the first real consumer Zen directly rivaling Intel's consumer product line like Summit Ridge did with the servers and the previous high end. This is the meat of the x86 consumer business, and Intel is still dropping balls left and right.

Although, the better AMD does, the smaller Intel supply problems become.

Very good point. Put that way Intel and AMD combined should be able to fulfill the market (more like OEM/ODM) demands by H2.

 

[beginner99]

H2 should be interesting with AMD getting a bigger share of TSMC's 7nm wafers.

Which most likely will have to be used for the console chips.

 

[moinmoin]

Which most likely will have to be used for the console chips.

Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.

 

[lightmanek]

Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.

I was going to say the same.
After original XBox NV - MS issue, console players learned to play if safe and secure their own manufacturing contracts.

Besides, do we know which TSMC process console chips are going to use? Not following that too closely myself, so not sure, but I guess it will be N7P.

 

[sandorski]

Excellent. People wanted AMD to compete and they have. Intel's current woes just help to break the Intel-Only mindset which will help keep AMD competitive far into the future.

 

[naukkis]

Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.

They can't. x86 licencing prevents that. AMD can only sell it's itself manufactured x86 chips.

 

[moinmoin]

They can't. x86 licencing prevents that. AMD can only sell it's itself manufactured x86 chips.

AMD can still do the packaging. For that matter AMD technically can't even manufacture its own chips without an own foundry, so packaging is what's left anyway.

 

[naukkis]

AMD can still do the packaging. For that matter AMD technically can't even manufacture its own chips without an own foundry, so packaging is what's left anyway.

AMD did get relaxed x86-licencing from Intel with cross licencing x64 which allows them to use third party foundry to manufacture their chips. But they still can't licence x86 chips to Sony or Microsoft to be manufactured. And it's not secred, AMD tells openly how their semi-custom business are manufactured and sold - directly from AMD. If Sony or Microsoft wants to manufacture their chips itself they need to establish joint-venture company with AMD to be able to do so as AMD did with chinese, Thatic.

 

[moinmoin]

But they still can't licence x86 chips to Sony or Microsoft to be manufactured.

Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.

 

[naukkis]

Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.

They can, but it is AMD which manufactures those chips. AMD will sell chips to Sony and Microsoft as any other chips, those manufacturing and designing costs are payed by customer, that is semi-custom business model. It's AMD which orders wafers, not customer.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.

Then how are AMD collecting margin per chip and not royalty per chip? im pretty sure @naukkis is right. People say Sony/MS learnt a lesson with NV as a reason do to this stuff direct but then completely forget the billions Sony spent on a fab to do it themselves to only sell it off after a few years, the 360's RROD etc.

The issue with NV was one of poor contract negotiation.

 

[AtenRa]

Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.

AMD orders wafers to TSMC and then sells the chips to SONY and MS, you can clearly see this in AMDs earnings reports as SemiCustom revenue.

 

[prtskg]

More interesting news is this one -

Report: AMD Laptop CPU Market Share Expected to Jump to 20% in Q1

AMD controlled 14.7% of the mobile processor market in Q3 2019.

www.tomshardware.com

The publication's sources believe that AMD could hit 20% market share in the notebook market in Q1

 

[DrMrLordX]

I'm surprised AMD was already up to 14.7% in Q3 2019.

 

[moinmoin]

You guys are all correct and I was off (though I do think there's some amount of trickery involved just to comply pro forma with the x86 licensing rules). I remember reading quotes from people at Microsoft regarding the amount of say they have, but I can't find it right now.

I'm surprised AMD was already up to 14.7% in Q3 2019.

Article doesn't mention the actual quantity. Could this be down to the Intel shortage contracting the market?

 

[Kenmitch]

You guys are all correct and I was off (though I do think there's some amount of trickery involved just to comply pro forma with the x86 licensing rules). I remember reading quotes from people at Microsoft regarding the amount of say they have, but I can't find it right now.

Sony and Microsoft dictate to AMD how many of them to produce. AMD then calculates the wafers required to meet the orders. All parties involved play a part, but technically AMD buys the wafers and produces the product.

 

[LikeLinus]

They can, but it is AMD which manufactures those chips.

AMD manufactures their own chips? I thought TSMC did.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Article doesn't mention the actual quantity. Could this be down to the Intel shortage contracting the market?

Possibly, though the "PC market" (lamentably, including laptops/notebooks) also increased through calendar year 2019 so if there was a contraction, it would have been a very short and narrow one.