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News [Digitimes] Intel shortage likely to continue through 2020

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
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Ooh, this is bad. Doubly bad is that it seems that OEMs are finally fed up and are starting a push to AMD now.

The shortage of course is because of the really awful 10 nm yield and the 14 nm die hog that is Cooper Lake.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
14,206
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AMD could be really cleaning house right now if they had prioritized notebook-class CPU development. Who knew? Renoir and Dali should still do well though.
 
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Dave2150

Senior member
Jan 20, 2015
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I'm not surprised Intel have a shortage. Many businesses are refreshing old Windows Server 2008 systems, Windows 7 systems and upgrading for better performance. Over 99% of these are Intel based, thanks to Dell having hardly any AMD offerings and most IT solution designers not wanting to be "that guy" making a 'mistake' by convincing boards/product managers to change from 'reliable' Intel to AMD.

I work for a medium sized MSP in the UK, and sadly don't offer a single AMD solution, both because Dell don't offer them and because the decision makers are all so used to Intel.

AMD need to work very hard to get into higher margin business solutions if they want to cause any real damage to Intel.
 
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moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
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AMD could be really cleaning house right now if they had prioritized notebook-class CPU development. Who knew? Renoir and Dali should still do well though.
H2 should be interesting with AMD getting a bigger share of TSMC's 7nm wafers. Best case it will be still too little, worst case it will be too much and too late.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
14,206
3,314
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H2 should be interesting with AMD getting a bigger share of TSMC's 7nm wafers. Best case it will be still too little, worst case it will be too much and too late.
I'm leaning towards "too late". AMD may surprise us with widespread availability of Renoir straight out of the gate, especially the 8c parts. But I'm not betting on it.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
3,466
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I'm leaning towards "too late". AMD may surprise us with widespread availability of Renoir straight out of the gate, especially the 8c parts. But I'm not betting on it.
I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Renoir was clearly built with good production numbers in mind: lower than expected cache, lower than expected CU count, and yet high core-count that can efficiently cover 15-65W with just one chip.

Sounds to me like AMD did their homework. Let's wait a quarter or two.
 

maddie

Platinum Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Isn't this is a sort of best case scenario, by assuming no further problems. Although, the better AMD does, the smaller Intel supply problems become.
 
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moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
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I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Renoir was clearly built with good production numbers in mind: lower than expected cache, lower than expected CU count, and yet high core-count that can efficiently cover 15-65W with just one chip.

Sounds to me like AMD did their homework. Let's wait a quarter or two.
Indeed. In a way, these being APUs, with the Zeppelin like high core count this is the first real consumer Zen directly rivaling Intel's consumer product line like Summit Ridge did with the servers and the previous high end. This is the meat of the x86 consumer business, and Intel is still dropping balls left and right.

Although, the better AMD does, the smaller Intel supply problems become.
Very good point. Put that way Intel and AMD combined should be able to fulfill the market (more like OEM/ODM) demands by H2.
 

lightmanek

Member
Feb 19, 2017
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Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.
I was going to say the same.
After original XBox NV - MS issue, console players learned to play if safe and secure their own manufacturing contracts.

Besides, do we know which TSMC process console chips are going to use? Not following that too closely myself, so not sure, but I guess it will be N7P.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
66,052
2,034
126
Excellent. People wanted AMD to compete and they have. Intel's current woes just help to break the Intel-Only mindset which will help keep AMD competitive far into the future.
 

moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
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They can't. x86 licencing prevents that. AMD can only sell it's itself manufactured x86 chips.
AMD can still do the packaging. For that matter AMD technically can't even manufacture its own chips without an own foundry, so packaging is what's left anyway.
 

naukkis

Senior member
Jun 5, 2002
282
121
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AMD can still do the packaging. For that matter AMD technically can't even manufacture its own chips without an own foundry, so packaging is what's left anyway.
AMD did get relaxed x86-licencing from Intel with cross licencing x64 which allows them to use third party foundry to manufacture their chips. But they still can't licence x86 chips to Sony or Microsoft to be manufactured. And it's not secred, AMD tells openly how their semi-custom business are manufactured and sold - directly from AMD. If Sony or Microsoft wants to manufacture their chips itself they need to establish joint-venture company with AMD to be able to do so as AMD did with chinese, Thatic.
 
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moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
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But they still can't licence x86 chips to Sony or Microsoft to be manufactured.
Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.
 

naukkis

Senior member
Jun 5, 2002
282
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116
Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.
They can, but it is AMD which manufactures those chips. AMD will sell chips to Sony and Microsoft as any other chips, those manufacturing and designing costs are payed by customer, that is semi-custom business model. It's AMD which orders wafers, not customer.
 

itsmydamnation

Golden Member
Feb 6, 2011
1,954
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Sony and Microsoft fully control the manufacturing step, they can decide on their own how much and on what node they manufacture and pay for it. Everything else, the whole R&D, design, validation and binning still goes through AMD, but as a service partner paid for it accordingly.
Then how are AMD collecting margin per chip and not royalty per chip? im pretty sure @naukkis is right. People say Sony/MS learnt a lesson with NV as a reason do to this stuff direct but then completely forget the billions Sony spent on a fab to do it themselves to only sell it off after a few years, the 360's RROD etc.

The issue with NV was one of poor contract negotiation.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
13,156
1,987
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Afaik Sony and Microsoft order their amount of desired wafers directly from TSMC, not through AMD.
AMD orders wafers to TSMC and then sells the chips to SONY and MS, you can clearly see this in AMDs earnings reports as SemiCustom revenue.
 
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moinmoin

Golden Member
Jun 1, 2017
1,299
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You guys are all correct and I was off (though I do think there's some amount of trickery involved just to comply pro forma with the x86 licensing rules). I remember reading quotes from people at Microsoft regarding the amount of say they have, but I can't find it right now.

I'm surprised AMD was already up to 14.7% in Q3 2019.
Article doesn't mention the actual quantity. Could this be down to the Intel shortage contracting the market?
 

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
7,645
750
126
You guys are all correct and I was off (though I do think there's some amount of trickery involved just to comply pro forma with the x86 licensing rules). I remember reading quotes from people at Microsoft regarding the amount of say they have, but I can't find it right now.
Sony and Microsoft dictate to AMD how many of them to produce. AMD then calculates the wafers required to meet the orders. All parties involved play a part, but technically AMD buys the wafers and produces the product.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
14,206
3,314
136
Article doesn't mention the actual quantity. Could this be down to the Intel shortage contracting the market?
Possibly, though the "PC market" (lamentably, including laptops/notebooks) also increased through calendar year 2019 so if there was a contraction, it would have been a very short and narrow one.
 

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