News [Digitimes] Intel shortage likely to continue through 2020

[jpiniero]

Intel CPU shortages likely to persist through end-2020

Shortages of Intel's PC processors are likely to persist through the end of 2020, prompting notebook makers to adopt AMD's chips in more of their notebooks including business models, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Ooh, this is bad. Doubly bad is that it seems that OEMs are finally fed up and are starting a push to AMD now.

The shortage of course is because of the really awful 10 nm yield and the 14 nm die hog that is Cooper Lake.

 

[Gideon]

Things are looking bad at server-side too.

Now HP is saying the shortage of Cascade Lake (not even Cooper!) will continue to have supply issues the entire of 2020. Their solution? Use Skylake-SP

Based on demand, we are expecting supply will remain constrained through 2020. Server platforms which use these processors are affected. In order to minimize customer impact as a result of these supply constraints with Cascade Lake processors, HPE urges customers to consider alternative processors, which are still available.

HP

source (german)
google translate

I can't believe that AMD is still struggling to even break 10% market share with the Security issues and shortage going on since 2018 and Rome (with 2x the perf/watt) being out since Q32019.

 

[Gideon]

Tom's is reporting on the same HPE news:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1219258812718170116

 

[DrMrLordX]

Huh. Wonder if there will be shortages of Cascade Lake-AP?

 

[beginner99]

I can't believe that AMD is still struggling to even break 10% market share with the Security issues and shortage going on since 2018 and Rome (with 2x the perf/watt) being out since Q32019.

I've written it many times on the forums. It'a a combination of OEMs making AMD server a niche product and enterprise buyers being clueless. I'm in that loop right now, not really for a server more for a workstation but corporate IT simply is clueless and hiding behind policy and compatibility. I wouldn't be surprised if the end up buying us a Skylake-based product for triple the price and 1/3rd the performance from what I speced out.

 

[Gideon]

I've written it many times on the forums. It'a a combination of OEMs making AMD server a niche product and enterprise buyers being clueless. I'm in that loop right now, not really for a server more for a workstation but corporate IT simply is clueless and hiding behind policy and compatibility. I wouldn't be surprised if the end up buying us a Skylake-based product for triple the prive and 1/3rd the performance from what I speced out.

I guess the only silver lining here is, that if that eventually changes, there will also be inertia the other way. E.g once AMD becomes an established second-source, people also don't want to give them up entirely to avoid a an Intel monopoly, even when Intel finally manages to offer a better performing product. Not holding my breath though.

 

[joesiv]

Intel CPU shortages likely to persist through end-2020

Shortages of Intel's PC processors are likely to persist through the end of 2020, prompting notebook makers to adopt AMD's chips in more of their notebooks including business models, according to industry sources.

www.digitimes.com

Ooh, this is bad. Doubly bad is that it seems that OEMs are finally fed up and are starting a push to AMD now.

The shortage of course is because of the really awful 10 nm yield and the 14 nm die hog that is Cooper Lake.

I think the shortages are really a perfect storm of things for Intel.
1) Intel was forced to increase core counts on pretty much all fronts to combat AMD. They were happy, and probably expected to continue to sell 122mm 4core parts to the masses for the forseeable future, now they have to sell much larger dies to the masses, less dies per wafer means production capacity is cut, nearly in half.
2) 10nm, which would have helped get the 6+ core parts back down to ~100mm size for mass production, obviously was delayed/problematic
3) security vulnerabilities, mitigations affecting performance of servers. The easiest option for most server admins is to just add more of the identical systems to get back their critical performance levels.

 

[prtskg]

I can't believe that AMD is still struggling to even break 10% market share with the Security issues and shortage going on since 2018 and Rome (with 2x the perf/watt) being out since Q32019.

Didn't AMD say they expect to reach double digit server share in 2020? It should also be noted that AMD and Mercury research calculates server share differently. AMD's calculation accounts for single and dual socket market only while Mercury includes four-socket (and beyond) servers, networking infrastructure and Xeon D's (edge) too.

 

[Markfw]

Didn't AMD say they expect to reach double digit server share in 2020? It should also be noted that AMD and Mercury research calculates server share differently. AMD's calculation accounts for single and dual socket market only while Mercury includes four-socket (and beyond) servers, networking infrastructure and Xeon D's (edge) too.

Some of that may have to change. With AMD at 64 cores/socket, and Intel still at, what, 28 ? I can't see an 8 socket 64 core motherboard. Even 4 would be a problem. The 8 socket boards had, what, a quad core ? for 32 cores total ? Now we have 64 in one socket ?

 

[Hitman928]

Didn't AMD say they expect to reach double digit server share in 2020? It should also be noted that AMD and Mercury research calculates server share differently. AMD's calculation accounts for single and dual socket market only while Mercury includes four-socket (and beyond) servers, networking infrastructure and Xeon D's (edge) too.

double digits by mid 2020 and yes, AMD only counts basically the sectors they compete in, so no 4 socket or edge servers either.

 

[Hitman928]

Some of that may have to change. With AMD at 64 cores/socket, and Intel still at, what, 28 ? I can't see an 8 socket 64 core motherboard. Even 4 would be a problem. The 8 socket boards had, what, a quad core ? for 32 cores total ? Now we have 64 in one socket ?

From someone who is involved as an enthusiast as well as someone who sits in on some of these meetings (but not a decision maker), my impression of the current market is that 8 socket systems are dead. Four socket systems are still around but aren't very popular. With the advances in inter-server fabrics/networks it's basically consolidated the market to 1 and 2 socket systems and then building a rack or room out from there.

 

[lobz]

Huh. Wonder if there will be shortages of Cascade Lake-AP?

No demand - no shortage.

 

[lobz]

I've written it many times on the forums. It'a a combination of OEMs making AMD server a niche product and enterprise buyers being clueless. I'm in that loop right now, not really for a server more for a workstation but corporate IT simply is clueless and hiding behind policy and compatibility. I wouldn't be surprised if the end up buying us a Skylake-based product for triple the prive and 1/3rd the performance from what I speced out.

I wonder how many years after launching Epyc and then Rome, can being clueless continue to be a tolerable excuse. There is just no way that everybody will stay ignorant everywhere.

 

[RetroZombie]

of the current market is that 8 socket systems are dead. Four socket systems are still around but aren't very popular

Well if intel keeps increasing TDP of server cpus, i don't want to think how to power such systems.

 

[RetroZombie]

Cascade Lake (not even Cooper!) will continue to have supply issues the entire of 2020. Their solution? Use Skylake-SP

Shortages of new products and not from the old ones? Weird.

 

[DrMrLordX]

No demand - no shortage.

People might start wanting them if they can't get Cooper Lake or Cascade Lake-SP systems! It's that or snap up old Skylake-SP hardware.

 

[moinmoin]

Shortages of new products and not from the old ones? Weird.

The older ones are likely leftovers avoided for their security issues, or rather loss of performance the mitigation induces.

 

[beginner99]

There is just no way that everybody will stay ignorant everywhere.

Of course not but given AMDs server market share before Zen being pretty much 0, getting to 20% market share means 20% of server buyers knowing about modern hardware differences. Every worked in large enterprise? I can assure you that is a very steep hill to climb. Yeah these people might have an IT education as background, but often >20 years ago and maybe they didn't really care about hardware back then let alone now.

 

[clemsyn]

I can't believe that AMD is still struggling to even break 10% market share with the Security issues and shortage going on since 2018 and Rome (with 2x the perf/watt) being out since Q32019.

Could it be that the integration of Optane with intel CPUs is giving AMD problems in the server side. Hopefully Micron can come up with a solution to help AMD in this area?

 

[DrMrLordX]

Could it be that the integration of Optane with intel CPUs is giving AMD problems in the server side. Hopefully Micron can come up with a solution to help AMD in this area?

Probably not. Intel hasn't reported much success in pushing Optane on customers (yet).

 

[lobz]

Could it be that the integration of Optane with intel CPUs is giving AMD problems in the server side. Hopefully Micron can come up with a solution to help AMD in this area?

Very unlikely. 1: it's not the success intel has hoped it to instantly be, 2: DDR5 will probably be compatible with the 3rd gen Optane. If I know that, anyone who's interested in qualfying their next systems Optane know that too.

 

[scannall]

I wonder how many years after launching Epyc and then Rome, can being clueless continue to be a tolerable excuse. There is just no way that everybody will stay ignorant everywhere.

The people often making purchasing decisions don't really care about the tech and don't have a lot of background in it. Generally business or accounting degrees. But they do like a good schmoozing, and that will weigh heavier than a mountain of cost/benefit reports from those that do know the tech. Made plenty of those which all found their way into the circular file.

 

[lobz]

The people often making purchasing decisions don't really care about the tech and don't have a lot of background in it. Generally business or accounting degrees. But they do like a good schmoozing, and that will weigh heavier than a mountain of cost/benefit reports from those that do know the tech. Made plenty of those which all found their way into the circular file.

While I know it's a real and common thing, I also think that we're finally living in the information era, and what you described is not just bad management, but also financially highly unoptimal business practice. It always takes only one superior that takes their job seriously and not just accept everything exactly as presented to them, to root out people like this from under them. The IT business sector has become cutthroat enough for more people care enough to really dive into where they can either spend less or earn more. I'm saying, the chances of these kind of executes being replaced are much higher today than it was 15 years ago. Even your google feed on your phone can nag you nowadays day by day, about many things, even AMD's chips being cheaper and better performing, for example - even though I hardly ever really surf that content on my phone. I know it's a corner case example, but I think nevertheless, that it's another 'day' now than it was when the first Opterons launched. I really think that it will be like a dam collapsing. Whether AMD can maintain the lead until that happens, should be the biggest question of the next 2-3 years.

 

[Topweasel]

Things are looking bad at server-side too.

Now HP is saying the shortage of Cascade Lake (not even Cooper!) will continue to have supply issues the entire of 2020. Their solution? Use Skylake-SP



source (german)
google translate

I can't believe that AMD is still struggling to even break 10% market share with the Security issues and shortage going on since 2018 and Rome (with 2x the perf/watt) being out since Q32019.

The real question is, is AMD selling every Epyc they make, because if they are not, then its a pretty sad comment on the buying processes of the companies that could use them most.

But Intel is a huuuuuuuuuuuuge company when it comes to the amount of CPU's the manufacturer. So much so that until recently they could easily handle the complete production requirements of the worlds general computing processors. Gaining 1 percent in the market is huge and we are talking about AMD pushing it into 20%, that is a tremedous fall by Intel. The problem with this supply issue is that it isn't like boom one day Intel doesn't have enough production for CPU's any more. It's more like one month 2 years ago they weren't able to meet supply buy .25% a month, that stayed steady and some orders slipped a day or two. Then the next .5% because of the new months orders plus the .25% from the month before. This escalates slowly over 2 years to being about a month behind. They are still hitting a tremendous amount of production and its easier to just submit orders early instead of testing and validating a new platform (and perhaps having to go through lengthy conversion processes for your VM's). This doesn't count the process stagnation and increased die size and lack of fab expansion because of the process issues. Which is really why intel is in this mess (well that and meltdown basically forcing everyone to increase compute 33% to keep up with mitigation).

But that 1 month might be more than AMD can supply all year.

 

[prtskg]

From someone who is involved as an enthusiast as well as someone who sits in on some of these meetings (but not a decision maker), my impression of the current market is that 8 socket systems are dead. Four socket systems are still around but aren't very popular.

So you sit in those meetings as a Hitman?
Q4 earnings of AMD will be interesting to see. While whole of zen2 effect won't be visible, there will definitely be some indication.

 

[StrangerGuy]

I've written it many times on the forums. It'a a combination of OEMs making AMD server a niche product and enterprise buyers being clueless. I'm in that loop right now, not really for a server more for a workstation but corporate IT simply is clueless and hiding behind policy and compatibility. I wouldn't be surprised if the end up buying us a Skylake-based product for triple the price and 1/3rd the performance from what I speced out.

Over at enterprise, Intel gets chosen mostly for political reasons rather than technical, aka covering your own butt.

It's easy to buy AMD for your personal use when you aren't living in the shadow of backstabbing and blame-gaming by nefarious office politics of the usual kind. Trust me, I have been there.