Now that all the administrative issues are covered, on the picks!
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) – On one hand, the Cowboys are absolutely loaded at the skill positions. You take an already potent offense, and add Dez Bryant, giving Tony Romo a dizzying array of weapons. On the other hand, they have a ton of questions on the offensive line. Time will tell, but I think replacing Flozell with Free at LT was a huge mistake, and Romo will pay. Defense is still strong, anchored by the fantastic pass rush combo of Ware and Spencer, but there are questions on the secondary.
2. New York Giants (9-7) – The Giants defense is nowhere near the force it once was, and we saw that quite a few times last year. Eli Manning likes his young targets, and they have a workable offensive line, but the running game has questions. Brandon Jacobs, like many oversized backs before him, has fallen quickly, so the onus is on Bradshaw to keep the offense moving.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) – Trading McNabb wasn’t a bad forward-looking move, but it hurt them in present, no doubt. Philly fans love to hate McNabb, and frankly, they will see just how wrong they were. Kolb will probably throw for more yards, and he’ll get some touchdowns, but he will do a lot of what McNabb rarely did – get picked off. The offense has some strong weapons though, I think McCoy is poised for a breakout year. He’ll need it – I don’t like their defense.
4. Washington Redskins (6-10) - Yes, McNabb is an immediate improvement for this team. He’s the best QB they’ve had in a long, long time. Shanahan is a great coach, but can he really turn it around in one year? Doubtful. Haynesworth is obviously a talent, but was a horrendous waste of money, and now is just out of shape and causing problems. The running back corps is a plethora of has-beens. They’ll be better, but that’s not saying much.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (11-5) – I realize I’ve perennially underrated the Packers. They’ve finally caught on. I do take pride in saying that I advocated for Aaron Rodgers being the #1 pick over Alex Smith years back. They’ll put up yards through the air, but I’m still not really a believer in Ryan Grant. The Packers are the media’s pop pick this year, but I’m not quite as sold. Prove me wrong, Rodgers.
2. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) – I’m uneasy about giving them double digit wins. The defense is still scary. Favre…I mean…he has to slow down eventually, right? With Sidney Rice out the first half of the season, Percy Harvin had better get over his migraine issues. AP is still AP, which certainly helps. I think we’ll see them on the ground more than the air this year.
3. Chicago Bears (9-7) - Wow, was I wrong about this team. Cutler was a total failure in his first year with Chicago. I think he’ll be better in his second year, and Mike Martz will help his development, but he doesn’t have good enough receivers and their offensive line is porous. Its almost like they don’t want him to succeed. Julius Peppers is a freak, though, and will help out their defense. As will the return of Urlacher. If Cutler gets his act together, this team could surprise people.
4. Detroit Lions (4-12) – These Lions are very reminiscent of the Lions in 2004 or so. Lots of great, young playmakers on offense. A young stud QB that everyone wants to turn it around. But a lackluster offensive line, and a subpar defense that can’t help them. Its hard to feel sorry for a QB that gets to throw to Calvin Johnson, but I really do feel for Stafford.
NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5) – Every now and then, things just happen right in a season. That was the Saints last year. Everyone wanted them to win. And they did, in impressive fashion. Will they do it again? I don’t think so. Brees is still great, and somehow takes mediocre weapons and makes them studs, but I just don’t like their defense.
2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7) – I thought they were overrated last year, and they were. Michael Turner, in particular, just doesn’t seem worthy of the hype (or all the high fantasy picks). They’ll be decent, Matt Ryan is improving, but I don’t see them being much beyond ordinary.
3. Carolina Panthers (6-10) – Well, I’m giving the Panthers 6 wins, solely because of their fantastic combo of running backs. Williams and Stewart will tear it up on the ground, even with defenses stacking 8 and 9 men in the box. However, Matt Moore is a nobody, Steve Smith isn’t what he used to be, the defense lost Peppers, and the Panthers are always laden with injuries, year in and year out.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) – Honestly, there’s not much to say about this team. They’re not good, and they don’t really have much in terms of prospects to change that.
NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers (9-7) – The offense on this team is good. Frank Gore gets the job done, when he’s healthy…which is rare. Alex Smith has not earned his draft spot, but at least his roster spot, and Crabtree/Davis is a nice combo of weapons for him. The defense is formidable. They should reclaim the NFL’s toilet division.
2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8) – What a fall from grace. Minutes away from a miracle Superbowl a year and a half ago, lucky to break even now. This team wanted to be like the Saints were last year – everything just falling into place – but couldn’t pull it off. Now they’ve lost Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Rolle. They cut their starting QB right before the start of the season. Larry Fitz is still unrivaled in many ways, but with Derek Anderson throwing to him, and little help otherwise, the Cardinals will hurt this season.
3. Seattle Seahawks (3-13) – Amusing anecdote – I was in Seattle’s stadium area, and I saw a massive poster of new head coach Pete Carroll on the side of Qwest Field, with his inspirational quote…”we’re going to compete like crazy!” Not “we can do it”, not “we’ll turn it around”, nothing like that. Nope – their new coach says they might not win, but they’ll keep it close, damnit! They’ll try! I think that’s all that needs to be said.
4. St Louis Rams (3-13) – Bradford might be a star someday, but it won’t happen this year. The Rams are a mess. Jackson’s most productive years are behind him, and were wasted. The offensive line might as well not be there. The defense is awful. Enjoy the turf, Bradford, I hope you’re wearing an anti-concussion helmet.
AFC East
1. New York Jets (11-5) – Am I falling for the hype? I guess so, which is probably a mistake, but hey…I like Rex Ryan. I wanted Dallas to sign him instead of Wade Phillips when Parcells left years back. Sanchez will continue to grow, the defense is great, and they need to pay Revis – he really is the best out there. I feel cutting Thomas Jones could haunt them, though…he’s getting old, but he’s been consistently good (and very underrated). Tomlinson doesn’t have much left, but he could prove a solid goal-line threat.
2. New England Patriots (9-7) – An offense headlined by a healthy Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker is going to scare defensive coordinators everywhere. However, their defense is just not what it used to be. They’ll be good, but not great.
3. Miami Dolphins (9-7) – This team seems to go against what Bill Parcells preaches – then again, he had similar in New England in ’96 when they went to the Superbowl. If Henne grows into the role of starter (side note: god do I hate him), with Brandon Marshall and a solid, if unorthodox, running game, they’ll put points on the board. I’m not sure if the defense can put them over the top, though.
4. Buffalo Bills (4-12) – Another team that, like the Bucs, I don’t have much to say about. They lost their best player, and did little to improve otherwise.
AFC North
1. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) – I like the Bengals this year. Of course, I’ve said that before, and gotten burned. However, while he hasn’t been the same since that 2006 playoff injury, I still believe Carson Palmer has what it takes to be an elite QB, and the receiving combo of Chad Johnson and T.O. is explosive, if volatile. Cedric Benson shocked the world with his resurgence last year, and the defense was strong. I think the self-titled “Batman and Robin” will work a lot better than the media does, who seems to pine for a T.O. explosion, and I think this team will go far.
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) – In a drastic turnaround from the past few years, I like the Ravens offense, and I’m not sure about their defense. The offense has a lot of solid, young talent. The defense still has aging stars that can get the job done, but they’re not what they once were. Still, the Ravens will be a force, but I feel the D will fade down the stretch.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) – They got lucky that Roethlisberger’s suspension was cut down, because his backup won’t win them a lot of games with their tough schedule. Mendenhall is going to get a lot of action early on, we’ll see if he lives up to the hype. The defense should be very good, like usual.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-13) – They were lucky to have their little mini-comeback a couple of years ago, because this team just isn’t good. They’ve got some good players on the offensive line, which is surprising for a team this bad, which goes to show you just how bad they are everywhere else.
AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (13-3) – It’s the Colts. They haven’t changed much since last year when they dominated just about everyone. They’ll win their division again. Peyton is pissed that Favre is still playing and adding to his record, so he might just throw 6,000 yards to try to catch up.
2. Tennessee Titans (9-7) – Everyone loves Chris Johnson, and why not? He’s the complete package. He’s nasty. The defense was oddly bad in spurts last season, I see them getting back to their old form. However, we all know my feelings on Vince Young.
3. Houston Texans (9-7) – I just…don’t like them. Schaub had his best year in 2009, but I really think he’s overrated. Signing Leinart doesn’t really change things. Andre Johnson is fantastic, and the defense does have some young playmakers, but something about this team isn’t there. They’re top-heavy…some very good stars, and some very big holes. Arian Foster looks good, though.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) – Outside of Maurice Jones-Drew, who has to slow down sooner or later, there isn’t much positive about the Jags. The defense is a shell of its former, powerful self, and Garrard has lost a step.
AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (12-4) – Phillip Rivers is a great quarterback, and he’s the biggest reason this team continues to shine. Malcom Floyd has looked good, but they need Vincent Jackson back if they really want to compete. The defense is passable, but not as scary as they used to be. I’m picking them finish strong, mostly because they’re in a terrible division and Rivers will get them through some tough games, but I don’t see them winning out over the other AFC heavyweights.
2. Denver Broncos (8-8) – I still think Josh McDaniels is an idiot, Orton is not very good, neither is Moreno, Champ is still good but not the best anymore. I’m being optimistic with this pick, mainly because I thought they’d be terrible last year too and they proved me wrong. We’ll see.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) – Matt Cassell is not very good, but I do like their combo of running backs. I’ve made no secret that I’m a Thomas Jones fan, and Jamaal Charles meshes well with him. Nothing else really noteworthy about this team. They need a lot more.
4. Oakland Raiders (6-10) – Jason Campbell is a major improvement to their offense. Did I say that? I guess so…which is not to speak highly of Campbell, but rather to show just how awful Russell was. McFadden is a solid back when he’s healthy, and Asmomugha is very good, but outside of that, there’s not much to say. They’re the Raiders.
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