Crist to run as an Independent in November

[PJABBER]

I found the following analysis of Crist's chances to be spot on. Unless Crist uses his announcement in just an hour to back out of the race for U.S. Senator completely, his prospects for continuing a political career effectively go to zero.

Charlie Crist's Foolish Move

By Jay Cost
RealClearPolitics.com
April 29, 1010 What the hell is Charlie Crist doing?

This is insane. Two huge problems.

One, Independents don't win elections to the US Senate in three-way contests. Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are in office because one party or the other implicitly backed them. By my count, the last candidate to win election to the Senate as an Independent (other than Sanders and Lieberman) was Harry Byrd of Virginia. He won in 1976 because the Republicans did not run a candidate. This is not coincidental; true third party candidacies almost never work:

-When it comes to Congress, there's no such thing as an "Independent." Senators and Representatives inevitably caucus with one side or the other because the party leaders dispense committee assignments. This means that Independents are only really independent when they're campaigning, not legislating.

-Voters vote their partisanship, and most voters are partisan. The 2008 exit poll found that the Florida electorate was 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 29% Independent. I'd note that the exit polls don't ask Independents how they lean. Gallup asks that question, and that's why they currently find that only 12% of Americans are "pure" Independents.

-Voters are strategic. Remember the New Jersey governor's race? Independent Christopher Daggett was polling at 10%, but only got 5.8% on Election Day. There's a reason for that. American elections are winner take all, which makes it very difficult for third parties to thrive. Once voters catch wind that a vote for a third party candidate is a waste, they'll bail on that candidate. This suggests that Crist is going to have to "defeat" either Marco Rubio or Kendrick Meek prior to Election Day. Now, how do you suppose he's going to do that? He hasn't been able to defeat Rubio yet. That means he will have to nullify Meek. I'm skeptical he'll be able to do that. As an African American, Meek can expect strong support from the roughly 14% of the electorate that is black. That's one big problem. Another big problem is that Crist will first have to get the Democratic Party establishment to get behind him, and the White House is refusing to take his calls. With good reason. They're banking that Crist will siphon off just enough votes from Rubio to elect Meek. And anyway, with Roland Burris leaving the upper chamber next year, there might not be a single African American Senator in the 112th Congress. Can the Democratic establishment really turn its back on Meek - for Charlie Crist of all people? No way!

-Partisanship is important on Election Day. A party label carries with it a wealth of information that helps poorly-informed voters select the correct candidate. Crist has shed his Republican label, so now nobody knows what he will do in the Senate. How is that going to help inform voters about him? If Crist was more personable, he could run by saying, "Trust me to do what's right!" But he doesn't have that kind of personal appeal.
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Second, it would be hard to come up with a strategy that goes against the zeitgeist as much as Crist's plan to run as an Independent. Congressional job approval is getting so low that only members of Congress and their staff approve of the job the legislature is doing. And why? Ask people you know in life and they'll complain about politicians who are only out for themselves, who aren't looking out for the interests of the people. And now here comes good old Charlie Crist, who just a few weeks ago swore off an Independent run. This is a dishonest and nakedly self-interested move, and voters are fed up with this kind of behavior. The only compelling motivation that Charlie Crist has to run as an Independent is so that Charlie Crist can stay in elective office. That is not good enough in a year like 2010. Crist should take a lesson from Arlen Specter, a 30-year veteran of Pennsylvania statewide politics who pulled a similar stunt. He isn't polling above 43% in the RCP average. That's the kind of year this is.

I know why Crist is doing this. He's not on the ballot for governor this year, and he doesn't want to lose his seat at the table. Yet this is not going to work. And it will end his political career for good. The alternative would be to bow out gracefully, heartily endorse Marco Rubio, campaign like the dickens for him in the fall, and wait for the next opening in Florida politics. Instead, he is about to piss off every Republican in the country, and he's not going to win over the affections of the Democrats, who clearly sense an opportunity to get one of their own into the seat.

His political career will be over in just a few short months. What a fool.

 

[Lemon law]

I see PJABBER looks at politics only from a far far right viewpoint, which basically means when PJABBER advertises something as good, roughly 2/3 or more of American say that would stinking and horrible outcome.

Its just flat out easy to design a PJABBER decoder ring. But its sadly no good for setting your clock because PJABBER is wrong all the time.

 

[lothar]

If he choses to run as an independent, I'll donate to his campaign.

We need more people like him, Lindsey Graham, Evan Bayh, and Mark Warner, not stupid "progressives" or idiot ultra conservative republicans.

 

[PJABBER]

I see PJABBER looks at politics only from a far far right viewpoint, which basically means when PJABBER advertises something as good, roughly 2/3 or more of American say that would stinking and horrible outcome.

Gee, and here I thought I was a radical progressive the whole time.

According to you, I guess most Americans would like to see increased corruption in government, a massively burgeoning national debt, politicians that stay in office for a lifetime once they get elected, a continued lack of transparency in the government's deliberative processes and the institutionalization of pay to play.

Myself, I am against all that and my postings reflect it consistently.

You, on the other hand, are a sympathizer and an apologist for Islamic terrorism, would like to see virtually every current democratic government overthrown and the losers shot. You also see your opponents, like the little old ladies in the Quincy Tea Party SWAT thread, as mortal enemies.

The issues I have great passion for, you could care less about because, in the end, they are irrelevant once the Mahdi comes a callin'.

Those are the lines that are drawn in your mind and no amount of rational argument is going to sway you from them, so I wonder why anyone even bothers in the attempt.

 

[heyheybooboo]

If he choses to run as an independent, I'll donate to his campaign.

We need more people like him, Lindsey Graham, Evan Bayh, and Mark Warner, not stupid "progressives" or idiot ultra conservative republicans.

Crist ain't perfect, but Rubio is a douche.

And he is going to look like an even bigger douche with his DRILL HERE DRILL NOW rhetoric when that huge oil slick washes to the shore in Florida.




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[GarfieldtheCat]

Way to skim over point #2
The site you point to is using a European standard. Europe is very very far left. America is a center right nation.
So, to get to the "center" in America, the axis would have to be significantly shifted right.

I see nothing but US politicians on that chart, and since when did left/right vary by continent?

If something is conservative, it's conservative everywhere. Now the average right/left score may vary between countries, but the x/y axes remain constant.

So sorry to blow point #2 out of the water. I'm sure you'll make something else up to feel better.

Oh, and here are the positions of all senators. You and nick1985 will note that no one is to the left of center, let alone "far left"

 

[Lemon law]

As I recall, one of the things GWB did fer his brother Jeb was to ban off shore drilling in Florida, while not making it universal country wide.

Cheer up, the bulk of the oil spill will fall on Louisiana, but there is plenty to go around and more than some to spare for Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, and who gives a shit about Mexico that will get their fair share of disaster also.

As the devil was laughing with the delight, the day the music died.

 

[Mani]

Governemnt is getting smaller, spending is going down, right?

If those are the criteria you base liberalism off of (seems to be since you are ignoring his moderate social agenda and right wing foreign policy), is Reagan a liberal as well?

 

[her209]

Florida GOP Auctions Crist Portrait on eBay After Political Breakup
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...trait-ebay-political-breakup/?test=latestnews

LOL...

 

[Mani]

I found the following analysis of Crist's chances to be spot on. Unless Crist uses his announcement in just an hour to back out of the race for U.S. Senator completely, his prospects for continuing a political career effectively go to zero.

Since the tea partiers have made their choice, I think Crist will make a serious move to the center, and will likely reach out to moderate democrats. At this point he is much more likely to pull from Meek than Rubio, and it could turn out to be an brilliant move if he plays things right.