Contagion spreading among the vaccinated

[eikelbijter]

That's a good yardstick to go by.
IIRC measles is the most transmissible virus that we know of.
The R0(naught) is 14-18, meaning one infected person can infect 14-18 other people.
Hence the herd immunity number for measles from what I remember is 95-98% vaccination rate.

Covid-19 original had/has an R0 of 1.5-2.0. Again IIRC.
I have no idea that Delta variant is but if its twice as transmissable from what I am reading
it would stand to reason that the R0 may be 3-4.
Again, nothing like the measles and another reason that the estimates for herd immunity are
70-85% vaccination rate.
This can be absolutely contained with increased vaccination rates.

70-85 % vaccination rates OR 70-85% infection rates. Why do you guys think this will go on forever? That's the part that doesn't make sense! Delta is at least three times as infectious as original, this will be over very quickly.

 

[eikelbijter]

By the way, in the name of science, here's an explanation why measles is different from Corona:

"While the influenza virus mutates constantly and requires a yearly shot that offers a certain percentage of protection, old reliable measles needs only a two-dose vaccine during childhood for lifelong immunity. A new study has an explanation: The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation, meaning that any changes to the virus come at a major cost. "

 

[fskimospy]

By the way, in the name of science, here's an explanation why measles is different from Corona:

"While the influenza virus mutates constantly and requires a yearly shot that offers a certain percentage of protection, old reliable measles needs only a two-dose vaccine during childhood for lifelong immunity. A new study has an explanation: The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation, meaning that any changes to the virus come at a major cost. "

I'm genuinely unclear about what you didn't understand about the analogy. You said that even with a vaccine that's 90%+ at preventing infection that we would still see exponential spread. I used Measles to explain why that was wrong. Several other people also explained that with more specific math examples, taking you back to school in a sense. That was the only purpose of the analogy, to show how you didn't understand how effective vaccines end exponential spread.

It's possible that COVID will mutate our vaccines into ineffectiveness but anyone who claims this is a certainty is peddling nonsense. The correct answer is the very first thing I told you - that right now things are uncertain and given the present data you were wrong to act as if they aren't.

 

[eikelbijter]

It's possible that COVID will mutate our vaccines into ineffectiveness but anyone who claims this is a certainty is peddling nonsense. The correct answer is the very first thing I told you - that right now things are uncertain and given the present data you were wrong to act as if they aren't.

I'm gonna keep an eye on this and we will revisit this, ok? Wanna make a bet? Just kidding, we'll talk about this in a year or two.

 

[eikelbijter]

I wanna make one thing clear one last time: I'm NOT against the vaccines, not at all. I've told multiple dear friends to get them.

I have a problem with the idea that, not theoretically under some circumstances, but specifically in the US and LA right now, that without vaccines this would go on forever. It won't. If everybody got Covid it would be over as well, and YES, with more people dead. I argue, that with the high infection rate, substantial vaccination rate (here in Cali it's 60% or so, much higher in the risk groups) we are just about out of the woods. I'm not a doctor, that much is obvious, but very few of you are either, and I would pose to say that there is NO way a vaccine based on a part of a virus gives categorically better immunity than having been infected with the actual thing. Not categorically, only perhaps in spike related immune response. Fact is, natural immunity makes anitbodies against the nucleocapsid that are completely absent from the vaccine induced response.

Those who chose to not get vaccinated WILL get infected very soon, if they hadn't already. ALL of them. And then it's over, as much as it can ever be over. Look at Czechia. They ended up with 0.28% of the population dead, and the disease is gone. Here in LA we're almost at 0.25%... we have to be realistic.

 

[Bitek]

I'm ok with that. I'm not vaccinated, nor will I ever be vaccinated, and I'm ok with not voting...

Can I inherit your likes?

 

[Zorba]

Except that it's OVER in the US, everybody that WANTED a vaccine got it! You can go right now to the supermarket and get it for free.

Yet, STILL we are trying to FORCE everyone to get it, even those who are immune from natural infection! And in the name of "not being selfish". Do you get where I'm coming from now?

Yes, you are an anti-vax troll that took over a long dead account.

How do you feel about your Olympic team not being able to actually claim your country?

 

[fskimospy]

I'm gonna keep an eye on this and we will revisit this, ok? Wanna make a bet? Just kidding, we'll talk about this in a year or two.

Betting on here isn’t allowed. Regardless, my entire point is uncertainty so why would I bet on that?

 

[fskimospy]

I wanna make one thing clear one last time: I'm NOT against the vaccines, not at all. I've told multiple dear friends to get them.

I have a problem with the idea that, not theoretically under some circumstances, but specifically in the US and LA right now, that without vaccines this would go on forever. It won't. If everybody got Covid it would be over as well, and YES, with more people dead. I argue, that with the high infection rate, substantial vaccination rate (here in Cali it's 60% or so, much higher in the risk groups) we are just about out of the woods. I'm not a doctor, that much is obvious, but very few of you are either, and I would pose to say that there is NO way a vaccine based on a part of a virus gives categorically better immunity than having been infected with the actual thing. Not categorically, only perhaps in spike related immune response. Fact is, natural immunity makes anitbodies against the nucleocapsid that are completely absent from the vaccine induced response.

Those who chose to not get vaccinated WILL get infected very soon, if they hadn't already. ALL of them. And then it's over, as much as it can ever be over. Look at Czechia. They ended up with 0.28% of the population dead, and the disease is gone. Here in LA we're almost at 0.25%... we have to be realistic.

The NIH and actual research doctors disagree with you that this is impossible. What do you know that they don’t?

Site Title

directorsblog.nih.gov

 

[Mr.IncrediblyBored]

I wanna make one thing clear one last time: I'm NOT against the vaccines, not at all. I've told multiple dear friends to get them.

I have a problem with the idea that, not theoretically under some circumstances, but specifically in the US and LA right now, that without vaccines this would go on forever. It won't. If everybody got Covid it would be over as well, and YES, with more people dead. I argue, that with the high infection rate, substantial vaccination rate (here in Cali it's 60% or so, much higher in the risk groups) we are just about out of the woods. I'm not a doctor, that much is obvious, but very few of you are either, and I would pose to say that there is NO way a vaccine based on a part of a virus gives categorically better immunity than having been infected with the actual thing. Not categorically, only perhaps in spike related immune response. Fact is, natural immunity makes anitbodies against the nucleocapsid that are completely absent from the vaccine induced response.

Those who chose to not get vaccinated WILL get infected very soon, if they hadn't already. ALL of them. And then it's over, as much as it can ever be over. Look at Czechia. They ended up with 0.28% of the population dead, and the disease is gone. Here in LA we're almost at 0.25%... we have to be realistic.

1 sentence on how you're not against the vaccine, then paragraphs about why the vaccine is essentially worthless because we're all going to get it anyway. Sure you aren't anti-vax.

Are you vaccinated?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I am a former telecom guy, I know this well.
Also I find the majority of apps just shitty web links.
As of this moment I have five apps on my phone and I admit the worst offender Facebook is one of them.
None of the apps are allowed access to my contacts or location. If it needs location data I allow it the disable it when done. Typically I refuse to use apps that require location data.
I intentionally stuck with windows phones until it became impossible simply because they had the best privacy because nobody was interested in windows phone users. Currently with Apple because at least they allow privacy. Haven’t used an android since 2009 or so.
While I am not perfect I take this shit seriously. I do not like the idea of Gov or Business tracking where we go, whom we interact with and when we are home or not home or out of state.

I don't know if they have it for Apple, but Tinfoil hat is the shit. Basically just a browser for Facebook so they don't have the bloatware.

It's so successful they put a banner at the top now saying please download Facebook Lite, it's only 2mb is what it says I think.

I think the regular Facebook app is... What, 200mb+?

 

[pmv]

I wanna make one thing clear one last time: I'm NOT against the vaccines, not at all. I've told multiple dear friends to get them.

I have a problem with the idea that, not theoretically under some circumstances, but specifically in the US and LA right now, that without vaccines this would go on forever. It won't. If everybody got Covid it would be over as well, and YES, with more people dead. I argue, that with the high infection rate, substantial vaccination rate (here in Cali it's 60% or so, much higher in the risk groups) we are just about out of the woods. I'm not a doctor, that much is obvious, but very few of you are either, and I would pose to say that there is NO way a vaccine based on a part of a virus gives categorically better immunity than having been infected with the actual thing. Not categorically, only perhaps in spike related immune response. Fact is, natural immunity makes anitbodies against the nucleocapsid that are completely absent from the vaccine induced response.

Those who chose to not get vaccinated WILL get infected very soon, if they hadn't already. ALL of them. And then it's over, as much as it can ever be over. Look at Czechia. They ended up with 0.28% of the population dead, and the disease is gone. Here in LA we're almost at 0.25%... we have to be realistic.

You continue to be as confusing as ever as to what it is you are actually arguing for or against.

Nobody ever said that 'without vaccines this would go on forever'. That's a straw man. Can you link to one instance of someone saying that?

What people have said is that without vaccines an unacceptably large number of people will die before we reach herd immunity through infection.

Sounds to me like you are yet another one of those that have been popping up all over the internet (and in mainstream politics) since the very start of this, pushing that 'herd immunity through infection' line. Boris Johnson's government started off with that position before seeing sense when it was pointed out how many would die with that approach (and they now seem to have half-relapsed back to it, apparently now going for a combo of half-vaccine half-infection, the half-rice-half-chips of public health).

Furthermore, I've seen it said repeatedly that the vaccines give _better_ immunity than does being naturally infected. I mean, I don't know, it does sound a bit counter-intuitive to me, but it's been said multiple times by people more qualified than I am or than you appear to be.

What intrigues me is the way an obsessive fixation with the 'herd immunity via infection' line seems, since the start, to have been associated with the sociopathic-libertarian contingent. It's always upper-middle-class white guys who push that line, for some reason. I'm curious why that is. Maybe it's simple economic-class-interest reasons, but I think it's something more psychological. I think it appeals to their need to believe themselves smarter or more heorically-risk-embracing than everyone else.


The other risk of the 'immunity via infection' approach is that it increases the likelihood of nasty variants emerging. In my non-expert way I do wonder whether Johnson's government's approach of letting the virus rip through the non-vaccinated younger half of the population, while they mix with the vaccinated older half, might not be the worst possible scenario for producing vaccine-evading variants.

 

[weblooker2021]

Fuck that. Just make it difficult for people that don't want the responsiblies of living in a society to function in society. If every employer and school required vaccine, we'd be at 97%.

In most states kids can get religious exemption or personal exemption. Same for most companies. It just will not work.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I don't know if they have it for Apple, but Tinfoil hat is the shit. Basically just a browser for Facebook so they don't have the bloatware.

It's so successful they put a banner at the top now saying please download Facebook Lite, it's only 2mb is what it says I think.

I think the regular Facebook app is... What, 200mb+?

cant find it but since push messages aren’t as important to me as they were, I may delete the app and go back to pinning Facebook to my home screen. I did that for a long time just to save battery life.

 

[Zorba]

In most states kids can get religious exemption or personal exemption. Same for most companies. It just will not work.

Which is also bullshit. But companies don't have to allow religious exemptions. And mandates work for every other vaccine. Yes, some people claim religious exemptions, but most just get their shots.

 

[abj13]

I'm not a doctor, that much is obvious, but very few of you are either, and I would pose to say that there is NO way a vaccine based on a part of a virus gives categorically better immunity than having been infected with the actual thing.

Perhaps making broad claims about a subject, you should actually put some time and energy reading about it in the first place. Can you explain to all of us, if vaccines are relatively ineffective compared to natural infection, why does the HPV vaccine prevent HPV-associated cancer but natural HPV infection still leads to HPV-associated cancer??? Modern science has provided us a shot that can prevent cancer, but here you are talking about how you'd rather be infected with HPV.

Another example. Which would you rather have, the rabies vaccine or be infected with the rabies virus?

Not categorically, only perhaps in spike related immune response. Fact is, natural immunity makes anitbodies against the nucleocapsid that are completely absent from the vaccine induced response.

You do realize SARS-COV-2 is an enveloped virus, correct? Apparently not. Because it has an envelope, the nucleocapsid is not exposed until the virus enters the cell. Nucleocapsid antibodies are worthless, and the fact you are talking about them reveals to everyone you don't really know what you are even talking about.

 

[weblooker2021]

Which is also bullshit. But companies don't have to allow religious exemptions. And mandates work for every other vaccine. Yes, some people claim religious exemptions, but most just get their shots.

I agree with you they do not have to but many also don't want to deal with lawsuits. Many of them just honestly don't care if their employees get the shot or not.

 

[eikelbijter]

1 sentence on how you're not against the vaccine, then paragraphs about why the vaccine is essentially worthless because we're all going to get it anyway. Sure you aren't anti-vax.

Are you vaccinated?

I NEVER, NEVER said the vaccines are useless. NEVER, and for you to suggest that is quite crazy. What the hell is wrong with you guys?

 

[eikelbijter]

Perhaps making broad claims about a subject, you should actually put some time and energy reading about it in the first place. Can you explain to all of us, if vaccines are relatively ineffective compared to natural infection, why does the HPV vaccine prevent HPV-associated cancer but natural HPV infection still leads to HPV-associated cancer??? Modern science has provided us a shot that can prevent cancer, but here you are talking about how you'd rather be infected with HPV.

Another example. Which would you rather have, the rabies vaccine or be infected with the rabies virus?



You do realize SARS-COV-2 is an enveloped virus, correct? Apparently not. Because it has an envelope, the nucleocapsid is not exposed until the virus enters the cell. Nucleocapsid antibodies are worthless, and the fact you are talking about them reveals to everyone you don't really know what you are even talking about.

Again, comparing vaccines for other viruses, and then suggesting I made a statement about VACCINES in general is disingenuous. To compare rabies with Covid 19 is preposterous.

And yes, I do know is has an envelope. Are you suggesting our body is making "useless: antibodies? As far as I know, even the top immunologists don't even know exactly how our immune system works., but you seem to have a solid grasp on it.... ;-)

 

[eikelbijter]

The NIH and actual research doctors disagree with you that this is impossible. What do you know that they don’t?

Site Title

directorsblog.nih.gov

Did you read it? It certainly doesn't say that vaccines offer better immunity, it just doesn't. As a matter of fact, it says exactly what I said, that the immune response is measurably different.

 

[eikelbijter]

Yes, you are an anti-vax troll that took over a long dead account.

How do you feel about your Olympic team not being able to actually claim your country?

And again, with the name calling. I'm NOT anti-vax, I've told multiple close friends to get vaccinated. I've defended science and vaccinations for YEARS with my anti-vax neighbors. You're way off base. This has been my account for many years, I just didn't post much.

Just so you know, I'm not American, I just live in LA.

 

[eikelbijter]

You continue to be as confusing as ever as to what it is you are actually arguing for or against.

Nobody ever said that 'without vaccines this would go on forever'. That's a straw man. Can you link to one instance of someone saying that?

What people have said is that without vaccines an unacceptably large number of people will die before we reach herd immunity through infection.

Sounds to me like you are yet another one of those that have been popping up all over the internet (and in mainstream politics) since the very start of this, pushing that 'herd immunity through infection' line. Boris Johnson's government started off with that position before seeing sense when it was pointed out how many would die with that approach (and they now seem to have half-relapsed back to it, apparently now going for a combo of half-vaccine half-infection, the half-rice-half-chips of public health).

Furthermore, I've seen it said repeatedly that the vaccines give _better_ immunity than does being naturally infected. I mean, I don't know, it does sound a bit counter-intuitive to me, but it's been said multiple times by people more qualified than I am or than you appear to be.

What intrigues me is the way an obsessive fixation with the 'herd immunity via infection' line seems, since the start, to have been associated with the sociopathic-libertarian contingent. It's always upper-middle-class white guys who push that line, for some reason. I'm curious why that is. Maybe it's simple economic-class-interest reasons, but I think it's something more psychological. I think it appeals to their need to believe themselves smarter or more heorically-risk-embracing than everyone else.


The other risk of the 'immunity via infection' approach is that it increases the likelihood of nasty variants emerging. In my non-expert way I do wonder whether Johnson's government's approach of letting the virus rip through the non-vaccinated younger half of the population, while they mix with the vaccinated older half, might not be the worst possible scenario for producing vaccine-evading variants.

Many suggest that this will go on and on if everybody doesn't get vaccinated. I know many out there say that vaccine immunity is "better" but when you read the ACTUAL studies, not some article about the study, you realize that it's speculation, extrapolation built on SOME difference, but I've not seen a SINGLE study that says it's categorically better.

The bottom line is, if herd immunity is possible through vaccination, it's possible through natural infection. I'm not sure why that is so difficult to accept. Of course more people would die. Life's a bitch.

 

[eikelbijter]

@eikelbijter off topic question. Do you like or watch anime?

I never have.

 

[eikelbijter]

You know what really sucks? Watching people die from COVID. Imagine drowning. That's what we in the health field have seen and continue to see. Then I get to call family and tell them what happened.

While some here are quibbling over COVID and how it's not a "big" deal and we are all just "crisis actors," COVID rages on. There is a problem this time around. We do not have enough health resources. Those nurses and doctors who went through the insanity of COVID last fall and winter? Yeah, them. You know the ones that kept patients alive, who had to deal with tracheostomies and g tubes because of fulminant respiratory failure? Do you remember them? A lot of them have moved on. Many of them have either developed long COVID, developed PTSD, or other health issues that have pushed them away from inpatient medicine. They got sick and tired of it and who can blame them. We are currently at capacity at numerous hospitals across the country because people failed to take care of themselves. We don't have enough staff this time around to handle another surge.

50% of the country is vaccinated. Roughly 10% have had COVID. That leaves 40% of our country left waiting to either get the delta variant or the vaccine. We almost broke the last time with those 10% during a surge. Now we are dealing with the remnants. Sadly, there remains a lot of remnant.

I am mad. Because people continue to be stupid and like to think this only affects them. 1 in 500 people have died because of this in the US. It will not take much more effort to get to 1 in 300.

You can laugh at me, call me a crisis actor, tell me COVID isn't real, physically assault me and my staff and I will continue using every tool at my disposal to keep you alive.

We are still here and fighting. Every single day. Watching people come in and we ask "we're you vaccinated?" Most say no. I don't get on a soap box because it doesn't do any good. I could say "told you so." But it won't help. If you still don't believe after all we have gone through then I cannot help you. You have chosen your bed and you get to sleep in it.

At this point in my career, I have seen hundreds of covid patients. I hate COVID! I hate it because it is dividing us. I hate it because it is killing us. I hate it because it is destroying lives. I hate it because there are far too my times I feel helpless in treating it because there are very few effective treatments. So, go ahead, play Russian roulette. I will still be here when the bullet strikes and do my damn best to keep you alive.

This is so full of wrong; first off I never said Covid is not a big deal, it's a HUGE deal.

Secondly, WAY more than 10% have had Covid. WAY more. Secondly, not quite 1 in 500 have died, but 0.188% is a lot. If we look at other countries where the virus infected everybody, the IFR without vaccines looks to be about 0.3 at most. Now that most are vaccinated in the US and we've had about 55% infection, there's NO WAY we'll get to 0.3. It's just not gonna happen. It's fear mongering to suggest that..

 

[Pohemi]

You are correct that one can flatten a curve enough to NOT make it rise to max anymore. I'm talking about an ACTUAL reality though, not theoretical possibilities. In my opinion the cat is out of the bag in LA and within 2 months this is completely over. I know TOO many people who were fully masked with N95s, gloves, careful as hell, who got Covid anyway.

You discount "theoretical possibilities" and immediately follow with your opinion/feels. That's pretty thick irony.

I'm gonna keep an eye on this and we will revisit this, ok? Wanna make a bet? Just kidding, we'll talk about this in a year or two.

That's funny!

Yeah, you're pretty funny, clown.