Originally posted by: Viditor
Originally posted by: dmens
Originally posted by: Viditor
We will probably see reviews in July at the launch, but not product. I'm sure that many people will keep waiting, but 99% of the purchasers buy a computer when they actually need a computer.
AMD will continue to sell every CPU they can make through the end of this year (and remember that's a lot! AMD will have tripled their production capacity by year's end).
Next year is a different matter...there's a lot of things that will come into play then.
1. AMD's 65nm ramp and their clockspeed on the new chips
2. K8L is due out next year
3. How fast can Intel ramp clockspeed on Conroe
4. How good is Conroe across it's entire line
Many other factors as well, those are just a few...
Either way, Conroe just isn't a marketshare issue for either company in 2006. However, selling the Netburst Dual cores at near cost just might be...we shall have to see. Up till now, the Presler hasn't been nearly as popular as Intel had hoped (which is why they had to cut prices so drastically). By selling all of their DC Netburst chips so cheap, they will be cutting their margins tremendously (and they're already at the lowest point they've been in my memory). The problem for Intel is that once you cut prices, it's near impossible to raise them again and it effects purchasing attitudes across your whole line of processors (Intel found this out with Celeron).
Heh, you might be surprised how much intel management wants merom derivatives in the market. They're really going for it this time. P4 inventories are being burned off like there's no tomorrow (because there isn't one for P4) and merom is just about ready to ramp.
Take those dates given in the analyst meeting and add 2 months for general availability would be my guess.
merom might not have much of an impact on '06, but the P4 selloff would. Funny enough, the CPU margins are still pretty good (thank the process guys), even at those prices. The fact that intel is throwing away money on a billion other things would be the reason their total net earnings aren't as high as before.
also, intel mgmt has pretty much finally acknowledged that AMD is here to stay, so hopefully there'll be a clearer vision for the future. imo intel's ms hemorrhage on desktop and DP server is going to stop as soon as merom is out, since at its launch, it is clearly a leadership product in those segments.
Good post, and I tend to agree Dmens (Sept for Conroe is my guess...). When you say "as soon as merom is out", I assume you mean as soon as Merom products are on the shelves...ODMs usually release their new models in January, so again I think we are in agreement that 07 is the year that Intel's big gains start to come.
As to the P4/PD "Firesale", I think it will be more difficult than we who know the technology assume. The problem for Intel is that the P4 and PD have gotten a rather poor reputation over the last 2 years...and even though this cost cutting certainly makes them a decent bargain, it will be hard to overcome that impression on the street.
For Otellini to be successful in what he's promised analysts and shareholders, selling P4s and PDs will be his hardest and most important job this year. The Conroes should be much easier...but that's next years story.
As a side note...I remeber when the A64 and Opteron were absolutely slaughtering the entire Intel line. There were many posters out there who wanted AMD management's collective head because they didn't gain marketshare in the first 6-9 months...
I think Intel supporters should take that to heart and cut Otellini some slack this year...that's just how the market works!
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