Conroe Availability Answered

[NoStateofMind]

I posted this in another forum and thought it would be good food for thought here as well. The concern of many is that 200 million in inventory is not enough to supply demand the day of launch....well here's something to chew on:

It's not that many Conroe's in thier inventory, just $200 million. Lets break that down to WORST case scenerio ok?

We have $200,000,000 in Conroe processors in our inventory. Let's say EVERY one of them is an extreme x6800, and the price is at a $1,000 just to make it easy. So going WORST CASE we are looking at 200,000 Conroes! Yeah I know what you are saying "But thats not many". Well your right, but not all of them are x6800. Let's even go another step. Let's say there are 33% of each of the top 3 chips (x6800,e6700,e6600). Roughly:

x6800 - 66,000@ $1000 <--this one is too high, each one over is 2 e6700's or 3 e6600's
e6700 - 132,000@ $500
e6600 - 209,500@ $315

And even that is not correct. That is an estamated half million Conroes on launch day!

 

[athfbum]

What about E6300s?

 

[NoStateofMind]

Exactly, they arent added. Just shows you there is more than what my feeble mind has been able to explain.

 

[CyborgNinja117]

thats still a shitload of conroes...

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: CyborgNinja117
thats still a shitload of conroes...

That's my point. They will be all over on launch. All this talk of "You won't get one til august" is just regurgitated crap from someone like the inquirer.

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon

Originally posted by: CyborgNinja117
thats still a shitload of conroes...

That's my point. They will be all over on launch. All this talk of "You won't get one til august" is just regurgitated crap from someone like the inquirer.

Totally agree all this talk of intel not being able to supply enough procs is Amd fanboy spread ******.

All that talk of them "only" shipping 25% of the chips as conroe by the end of the year is hardly a worry. 25% of intels chips is atill a massive number of chips.

And lets not forget that the people on this site are not a good demographic of the whole population. WE are enthusiests and going for the new tech. The average person isn't going to care to much about conores, especially with netbursts and other p4's going so cheaply.

 

[broly8877]

$200m

Let's assume E6300/6400's make up 40% of $200m, E6600/6700's 55% of 200m, X6800 5% of $200m. Sounds reasonable to me.

200,000,000 * .4 = $80,000,000 worth of the low-end (avg price $205)
80,000,000 / 205 = 390,244 CPUs

200,000,000 * .55 = $110,000,000 worth of the mid-range (avg price $415)
110,000,000 / 415 = 265,060 CPUs

200,000,000 * .05 = $10,000,000 worth of the high-end ($1k a pop)
10,000,000/ 1,000 = 10,000 CPUs

That's a lot of chips.

 

[AnandThenMan]

LOL, all that number crunching means nothing. If Conroe volume is 25% of total shipments by Q4, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting one, in a relative sense. And considering demand should be much higher for Conroe, then chances of getting one go down even further. Never mind that OEM's will get volume before you or I.

Not impossible to get one by any stretch, but it is safe to say that supply will be problematic at best.

 

[Pederv]

And what percentage of those $200M in chips is retail chips?

 

[dexvx]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
LOL, all that number crunching means nothing. If Conroe volume is 25% of total shipments by Q4, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting one, in a relative sense. And considering demand should be much higher for Conroe, then chances of getting one go down even further. Never mind that OEM's will get volume before you or I.

Not impossible to get one by any stretch, but it is safe to say that supply will be problematic at best.

Your logic makes no sense at all. Pentium-D's/Pentium's will be moved to the value market. Are you attempting to say that for the first time in CPU history MORE higher end products will be sold than value products? Moreover, this doesnt even include Notebook chips, which are not Netburst nor Core.

 

[imported_wicka]

Actually, the idea that the C2D's won't be available until August (August 7th, to be exact) comes straight from Intel. What will be available on July 27th are the Extremes. Now, I am no expert on the subject, but I would shy away from classifying Intel's press releases as "AMD fanboy spread ********." But that's me.

 

[broly8877]

Originally posted by: AnandThenManIf Conroe volume is 25% of total shipments by Q4, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting one, in a relative sense. And considering demand should be much higher for Conroe, then chances of getting one go down even further.

Not really... OEMs will slowly transition to C2D. They just can't flip a switch.
They'll introduce a model or two, and the rest will remain netburst. Like Intel is projecting, 75% of Intel performance desktops being sold will remain Netburst by year's end.

Intel just as easily could've ramped up more, but the market/OEMs can't switch as fast.

 

[dexvx]

Originally posted by: broly8877
Not really... OEMs will slowly transition to C2D. They just can't flip a switch.
They'll introduce a model or two, and the rest will remain netburst. Like Intel is projecting, 75% of Intel performance desktops being sold will remain Netburst by year's end.

Intel just as easily could've ramped up more, but the market/OEMs can't switch as fast.

Thats false. OEM's can switch at a flip of the switch. They just need to move their Netburst chips in inventory fast because they'll be worthless as Core makes it to the value segment. But like I said, this does not include Viiv sales, which are pre-dominantly powered by Core Solo/Duo (which technically dont count as "Core" NGMA or Netburst).

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: wicka
Actually, the idea that the C2D's won't be available until August (August 7th, to be exact) comes straight from Intel. What will be available on July 27th are the Extremes. Now, I am no expert on the subject, but I would shy away from classifying Intel's press releases as "AMD fanboy spread ********." But that's me.

That's funny, I got this in an email from clubIT as well as many others...

INDUSTRY, CA ? July 21: ClubIT.com will be among the first online resellers to have Intel?s newest Core 2 Duo processors in stock. This chip breaks new ground with stunning performance benchmarks, plus operates with only half the power requirements. ClubIT is pleased to announce it will be receiving these chips directly from Intel, so customers will not have to experience additional delays.

Intel?s Core 2 Duo outperforms the Athlon 64 X2/FX family in all areas, including gaming (where AMD has traditionally been very strong). So in terms of number- crunching, the Core 2 Duo is "the crunchiest"! Gamers and business application users will appreciate its speed and muscle. But in addition to pure performance, the Core 2 Duo operates at lower wattage. So it?s easier to cool, with less fan noise.

The Core 2 Duo can process multiple instructions per clock cycle, plus optimizes bandwidth for greater efficiency. It also uses an Advanced Smart Cache that dynamically adjusts the L2 cache to each core, depending on the workload. All this adds up to the Core 2 Duo being the clear choice for performance users.

Note that due to voltage changes, the Core 2 Duo requires a new motherboard. ClubIT carries a wide range of Core 2 Duo compatible motherboards, so you can be upgraded and running in no time. This might also be a good time to upgrade your video card from ClubIT as well, in order to take advantage of the Core 2 Duo's faster processing power.

So upgrade to the Intel Core 2 Duo! Your games and business applications will thank you for it.

ClubIT will begin taking orders on Thursday, July 27

August 7th huh?

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: wicka
Actually, the idea that the C2D's won't be available until August (August 7th, to be exact) comes straight from Intel. What will be available on July 27th are the Extremes. Now, I am no expert on the subject, but I would shy away from classifying Intel's press releases as "AMD fanboy spread ********." But that's me.

The Xtremes are avaliable now people who preordered from some sites have recieved them. I don't see why it would not be possible to get one of the other chips by the actual launch date. OEMs aren't going to soak up all the chips. most of them will be interested in picking up cheap as netbursts and selling off those in their value and mainstream machines and leaving the cores for higher end machines.

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: dexvx

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
LOL, all that number crunching means nothing. If Conroe volume is 25% of total shipments by Q4, then you have a 1 in 4 chance of getting one, in a relative sense. And considering demand should be much higher for Conroe, then chances of getting one go down even further. Never mind that OEM's will get volume before you or I.

Not impossible to get one by any stretch, but it is safe to say that supply will be problematic at best.

Your logic makes no sense at all. Pentium-D's/Pentium's will be moved to the value market. Are you attempting to say that for the first time in CPU history MORE higher end products will be sold than value products? Moreover, this doesnt even include Notebook chips, which are not Netburst nor Core.

Agree with what you are saying. though Intel is intergrating their mobile and desktop procs. they are both are being called core 2 duos

 

[AnandThenMan]

Originally posted by: dexvx
Pentium-D's/Pentium's will be moved to the value market. Are you attempting to say that for the first time in CPU history MORE higher end products will be sold than value products? Moreover, this doesnt even include Notebook chips, which are not Netburst nor Core.

When Intel talks about 25% of total shipments, this means in the same market segment. In other words, 25% of shipments will go to Conroe instead of the P4 lines, including Celeron. Also, Conroe is for all price segments. So by your "logic" then the low end legacy stuff will take sales away from Conroe, which means Intel will lose their shirt, considering the P4 crap no one wants will be sold at or maybe even below cost in some cases.

edit: the smart thing for Intel would have been to sell Conroe at high prices considering demand is certain to be high. But instead, they come up with the brain dead idea to sell them cheap. Not that I'm complaining, but the entire pricing structure Intel has come up with for the legacy stuff and Conroe is financial suicide.

 

[imported_wicka]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: dexvx
Pentium-D's/Pentium's will be moved to the value market. Are you attempting to say that for the first time in CPU history MORE higher end products will be sold than value products? Moreover, this doesnt even include Notebook chips, which are not Netburst nor Core.

When Intel talks about 25% of total shipments, this means in the same market segment. In other words, 25% of shipments will go to Conroe instead of the P4 lines, including Celeron. Also, Conroe is for all price segments. So by your "logic" then the low end legacy stuff will take sales away from Conroe, which means Intel will lose their shirt, considering the P4 crap no one wants will be sold at or maybe even below cost in some cases.

edit: the smart thing for Intel would have been to sell Conroe at high prices considering demand is certain to be high. But instead, they come up with the brain dead idea to sell them cheap. Not that I'm complaining, but the entire pricing structure Intel has come up with for the legacy stuff and Conroe is financial suicide.

The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: wicka

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: dexvx
Pentium-D's/Pentium's will be moved to the value market. Are you attempting to say that for the first time in CPU history MORE higher end products will be sold than value products? Moreover, this doesnt even include Notebook chips, which are not Netburst nor Core.

When Intel talks about 25% of total shipments, this means in the same market segment. In other words, 25% of shipments will go to Conroe instead of the P4 lines, including Celeron. Also, Conroe is for all price segments. So by your "logic" then the low end legacy stuff will take sales away from Conroe, which means Intel will lose their shirt, considering the P4 crap no one wants will be sold at or maybe even below cost in some cases.

edit: the smart thing for Intel would have been to sell Conroe at high prices considering demand is certain to be high. But instead, they come up with the brain dead idea to sell them cheap. Not that I'm complaining, but the entire pricing structure Intel has come up with for the legacy stuff and Conroe is financial suicide.

The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

Also it is not as though companies are going to through out their existing inventory just because a better product comes along. Until companies get rid of their stocks of netbursts i think it is unlikely we will see may oems building budget comps with cores.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Originally posted by: wicka
The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

Decent and Celeron do not compute. Either way, Intel's strategy makes zero sense to me. They did the exact opposite of how you should price a new, desirable product. Imagine Lexus coming out with a new model that beat all all offerings, but they decide to set price points far lower than what the previous products were at, and then price the previouis inventory to the point where a)you make no money at all and b)you tell everyone months in advance that the new model will make your current auto's look like a Pinto, so don't bother purchasing what we have now. Brain Dead!

Like I said, coming up with numbers is pointless unless you show how many processors Intel ships in total vs. how many are actually going to be NGMA.

 

[imported_wicka]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

Decent and Celeron do not compute.

We're not talking about crazy gaming and overclocking. If you say every price range, you include the budget range. My family has a 1.8GHz Celeron that is 4-5 years old. It runs everything they throw at it. They aren't going to spent $183 on a CPU, even if someone tells them it's the budget line.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Originally posted by: wicka
We're not talking about crazy gaming and overclocking. If you say every price range, you include the budget range. My family has a 1.8GHz Celeron that is 4-5 years old. It runs everything they throw at it. They aren't going to spent $183 on a CPU, even if someone tells them it's the budget line.

I really don't know what this has to do with Conroe shipping volumes. Are you saying that the extreme budget Intel stuff will make Conroe more available to the rest of us? If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

 

[imported_wicka]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
We're not talking about crazy gaming and overclocking. If you say every price range, you include the budget range. My family has a 1.8GHz Celeron that is 4-5 years old. It runs everything they throw at it. They aren't going to spent $183 on a CPU, even if someone tells them it's the budget line.

I really don't know what this has to do with Conroe shipping volumes. Are you saying that the extreme budget Intel stuff will make Conroe more available to the rest of us? If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

No, I'm just saying that when you say Conroe is for every price segment, you are wildly mistaken. $183 is far into high-end territory. This is something we forget when we stop looking from the average consumer perspective. Intel can't possibly focus on the Conroe when most people won't be buying it.

 

[redbox]

Originally posted by: wicka

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

Decent and Celeron do not compute.

We're not talking about crazy gaming and overclocking. If you say every price range, you include the budget range. My family has a 1.8GHz Celeron that is 4-5 years old. It runs everything they throw at it. They aren't going to spent $183 on a CPU, even if someone tells them it's the budget line.

I have an overclocked AMD 3000+ and it runs everthing I throw at it. I am not going to spend $183 on a cpu, even if someone tells me it kills my cpu.

 

[AnandThenMan]

Originally posted by: wicka
No, I'm just saying that when you say Conroe is for every price segment, you are wildly mistaken. $183 is far into high-end territory. This is something we forget when we stop looking from the average consumer perspective. Intel can't possibly focus on the Conroe when most people won't be buying it.

I should have been more clear. Conroe is for most market segments. Now Intel of course cannot ignore the value area because that is the majority volume for both Intel and AMD. BUT, why on Earth does Intel decide that Conroe will be at a lower ASP than what their previous generation was at? Sorry to repeat myself, but does that make any sense to anyone? If Intel thinks Core2 is so amazing, why don't they price it accordingly? It seems to me that a product that is 20% better than what your competition has should be priced accordingly. Maybe it's just me.

Perhaps Intel is trying chop AMD off at the knees, and in the process will cut off their own nose.