Conroe Availability Answered

[ZOXXO]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
No, I'm just saying that when you say Conroe is for every price segment, you are wildly mistaken. $183 is far into high-end territory. This is something we forget when we stop looking from the average consumer perspective. Intel can't possibly focus on the Conroe when most people won't be buying it.

I should have been more clear. Conroe is for most market segments. Now Intel of course cannot ignore the value area because that is the majority volume for both Intel and AMD. BUT, why on Earth does Intel decide that Conroe will be at a lower ASP than what their previous generation was at? Sorry to repeat myself, but does that make any sense to anyone? If Intel thinks Core2 is so amazing, why don't they price it accordingly? It seems to me that a product that is 20% better than what your competition has should be priced accordingly. Maybe it's just me.

Perhaps Intel is trying chop AMD off at the knees, and in the process will cut off their own nose.

Or perhaps Intel is trying chop AMD off at the knees, and in the process they will "chop AMD off at the knees".

 

[SkyBum]

The better question to ask here is how will mobo availability be?

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: ZOXXO

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
No, I'm just saying that when you say Conroe is for every price segment, you are wildly mistaken. $183 is far into high-end territory. This is something we forget when we stop looking from the average consumer perspective. Intel can't possibly focus on the Conroe when most people won't be buying it.

I should have been more clear. Conroe is for most market segments. Now Intel of course cannot ignore the value area because that is the majority volume for both Intel and AMD. BUT, why on Earth does Intel decide that Conroe will be at a lower ASP than what their previous generation was at? Sorry to repeat myself, but does that make any sense to anyone? If Intel thinks Core2 is so amazing, why don't they price it accordingly? It seems to me that a product that is 20% better than what your competition has should be priced accordingly. Maybe it's just me.

Perhaps Intel is trying chop AMD off at the knees, and in the process will cut off their own nose.

Or perhaps Intel is trying chop AMD off at the knees, and in the process they will "chop AMD off at the knees".

Exactly Intel is simply regaining some of the market share that they lost to AMD over the last couple of years and trying to hurt AMD at the same time by forcing them to cut prices.

 

[redbox]

Originally posted by: SkyBum
The better question to ask here is how will mobo availability be?

ohhh ya that would be a good question, not only that but how stable are they going to be? How many will be SLI or Crossfire capable? Having dual gpus is where having a conroe gives you some nice return.

 

[twjr]

Originally posted by: redbox

Originally posted by: SkyBum
The better question to ask here is how will mobo availability be?

ohhh ya that would be a good question, not only that but how stable are they going to be? How many will be SLI or Crossfire capable? Having dual gpus is where having a conroe gives you some nice return.

Stability is going to be a big issue. especially with overclocking. i think 975x's are cf compatable. but i really am more interested in when ati's and nvidia's new mobos are coming out.

 

[dexvx]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
Decent and Celeron do not compute.

Really? Did you know Celeron-M's based off Yonahs can match A64's clock for clock?

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
Either way, Intel's strategy makes zero sense to me. They did the exact opposite of how you should price a new, desirable product. Imagine Lexus coming out with a new model that beat all all offerings, but they decide to set price points far lower than what the previous products were at, and then price the previouis inventory to the point where a)you make no money at all and b)you tell everyone months in advance that the new model will make your current auto's look like a Pinto, so don't bother purchasing what we have now. Brain Dead!

Let me break the math down to you.

The cheapest Conroe, for now, slightly under $200. There is a crapload of 915/945/6x1 series ranging from $60-$175. The Netburst Celerons will range from $30-60.

Although $200ish doesnt seen like a lot to you, thats actually low-mid end. Dell sells FAR FAR FAR more value-chipped Celerons (which will now be overlapped with singlecore Cedar Mills and Pentium-D's) than even mid-tiered chips. Dell and major OEM's sell $599 and under PC's (even includes 17" LCD!) FAR FAR FAR more than they do over. And you're gonna be hard-pressed fitting in even a E6300 with that budget.

Intel will be releasing the low-end Conroe E4xxx series later in the year. OEM's will be pressed to move all their Netburst chips before those hit.

 

[madoka]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
Either way, Intel's strategy makes zero sense to me.

And that's why you're posting illogical drivel on the net and they are corporate bigwigs who make millions of dollars. 😛

 

[Effect]

Let's see......Intel releases new 'amazing' CPU's and prices them 'accordingly'. AMD cuts prices aggressively, Intel's new 'amazing' CPU's don't appear so 'amazing' after all. I may be wrong, but i think Intel might know what they're doing.

 

[hans007]

well for one thing, the corporate numbers are for the end of teh quarter which was 2-3 weeks ago. so they have had 2-3 more weeks to build cpus.

and there will likely be a lot of e6300/e6400 in that mix as well. lets just pretend the ASP is $300. 200,000,000 / $300 is mor like 600 or 700 thousand cpus + whatever they made in the last 3 weeks.

so probably more like a million or more.

 

[thilanliyan]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
The cheapest Conroe is $183. That is by no means every price range. I can get a decent Celeron for $56.

Decent and Celeron do not compute. Either way, Intel's strategy makes zero sense to me. They did the exact opposite of how you should price a new, desirable product. Imagine Lexus coming out with a new model that beat all all offerings, but they decide to set price points far lower than what the previous products were at, and then price the previouis inventory to the point where a)you make no money at all and b)you tell everyone months in advance that the new model will make your current auto's look like a Pinto, so don't bother purchasing what we have now. Brain Dead!

Like I said, coming up with numbers is pointless unless you show how many processors Intel ships in total vs. how many are actually going to be NGMA.

I think they may be doing this sort of pricing to entice people away from AMD.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: broly8877
$200m

Let's assume E6300/6400's make up 40% of $200m, E6600/6700's 55% of 200m, X6800 5% of $200m. Sounds reasonable to me.

200,000,000 * .4 = $80,000,000 worth of the low-end (avg price $205)
80,000,000 / 205 = 390,244 CPUs

200,000,000 * .55 = $110,000,000 worth of the mid-range (avg price $415)
110,000,000 / 415 = 265,060 CPUs

200,000,000 * .05 = $10,000,000 worth of the high-end ($1k a pop)
10,000,000/ 1,000 = 10,000 CPUs

That's a lot of chips.

I believe the e6300s aren't shipping till the end of the quarter...
Remember that all of the OEMs are getting their slice of this as well...expect to see maybe 10% of these chips available in the channel (NewEgg, etc.) at most.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: broly8877
$200m

Let's assume E6300/6400's make up 40% of $200m, E6600/6700's 55% of 200m, X6800 5% of $200m. Sounds reasonable to me.

200,000,000 * .4 = $80,000,000 worth of the low-end (avg price $205)
80,000,000 / 205 = 390,244 CPUs

200,000,000 * .55 = $110,000,000 worth of the mid-range (avg price $415)
110,000,000 / 415 = 265,060 CPUs

200,000,000 * .05 = $10,000,000 worth of the high-end ($1k a pop)
10,000,000/ 1,000 = 10,000 CPUs

That's a lot of chips.

I believe the e6300s aren't shipping till the end of the quarter...
Remember that all of the OEMs are getting their slice of this as well...expect to see maybe 10% of these chips available in the channel (NewEgg, etc.) at most.

OEM's are not going to eat up 90% of Conroe inventory.

 

[eelw]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

Agreed. Intel is out to hurt AMD and they are being very cut throat about it. Intel has taken a beating the last few years in performance. I dont know if any of you remember AMD's open challenge to Intel last year, but Im sure Intel was VERY pissed because they knew at that time they couldnt compete. Now its payback time, going for the jugular.

 

[imported_inspire]

Why is there arguement? Just because the traffic is clear doesn't mean you'll get to work on time. Chances are you will - but there's the off chance you have a blowout or something.

The supply issue looks good right now, but we'll just have to wait and see what happens. More likely than not, there won't be a supply issue.

What's so hard to understand?

 

[Henny]

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

...and AMD is way behind in manufacturing technology. Intel can be aggressive since they're up on mature/cost effective 300mm/65nm technology. AMD won't have 65nm until late '06/early '07.

Silicon technology is also critical since dual core/multi core consumes more silicon real estate.

Economies of scale are everything in this industry.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon


OEM's are not going to eat up 90% of Conroe inventory.

That's only a couple hundred thousand CPUs...if the OEMs don't, then Intel is in BIG trouble!

 

[redbox]

1. can we have link?
2. why doesn't intel just give us the numbers instead of telling us in money?

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

In their respective Conference Calls to analysts, Intel projects losses to their profit margins through the end of the year, and AMD projects increases. I think you are over-estimating the effect of the desktop channel sector on the balance sheet...

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

...and AMD is way behind in manufacturing technology. Intel can be aggressive since they're up on mature/cost effective 300mm/65nm technology. AMD won't have 65nm until late '06/early '07.

Silicon technology is also critical since dual core/multi core consumes more silicon real estate.

Economies of scale are everything in this industry.

?
AMD has already announced and reiterated that 65nm ships in November at fully mature yields. Fab 36 is well ahead of schedule...

 

[Henny]

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan

Originally posted by: wicka
We're not talking about crazy gaming and overclocking. If you say every price range, you include the budget range. My family has a 1.8GHz Celeron that is 4-5 years old. It runs everything they throw at it. They aren't going to spent $183 on a CPU, even if someone tells them it's the budget line.

I really don't know what this has to do with Conroe shipping volumes. Are you saying that the extreme budget Intel stuff will make Conroe more available to the rest of us? If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Yep, they sure bled in the 2nd quarter. (only made $1.4B in profit and managed to squeak out 50% profit margin with old netburst CPU's in the worst seasonal quarter of the year.)

 

[imported_inspire]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

...and AMD is way behind in manufacturing technology. Intel can be aggressive since they're up on mature/cost effective 300mm/65nm technology. AMD won't have 65nm until late '06/early '07.

Silicon technology is also critical since dual core/multi core consumes more silicon real estate.

Economies of scale are everything in this industry.

?
AMD has already announced and reiterated that 65nm ships in November at fully mature yields. Fab 36 is well ahead of schedule...

Holy - that's the first time I've heard of that - can we have some links?

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon


OEM's are not going to eat up 90% of Conroe inventory.

I believe the e6300s aren't shipping till the end of the quarter...
Remember that all of the OEMs are getting their slice of this as well...expect to see maybe 10% of these chips available in the channel (NewEgg, etc.) at most.
That's only a couple hundred thousand CPUs...if the OEMs don't, then Intel is in BIG trouble!

How so?

Here's what I think when it comes to OEM's, stealing from my post in another forum:

It seems logical to me, that the inventory has nothing to do with OEM's (Dell,HP). They would have already gotten thiers. So they have systems ready on launch. I could be wrong about that. But why would Intel keep them from OEM's til the 27th? Whats the point in that? That would mean you wouldnt see a Dell with a Conroe for a couple of weeks. That's why I think the OEM thing is just hogwash.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: inspire

Holy - that's the first time I've heard of that - can we have some links?

Yup...the AMD Conference Call is available here.

The Intel Conference Call is available here.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
How so?

Here's what I think when it comes to OEM's, stealing from my post in another forum:

It seems logical to me, that the inventory has nothing to do with OEM's (Dell,HP). They would have already gotten thiers. So they have systems ready on launch. I could be wrong about that. But why would Intel keep them from OEM's til the 27th? Whats the point in that? That would mean you wouldnt see a Dell with a Conroe for a couple of weeks. That's why I think the OEM thing is just hogwash.

If you listen to the link I posted, you'll see that you're wrong on this one...
The inventory you're speaking of actually caught the CFO by surprise. It occured because Intel was able to push Conroe ahead faster than they thought, so they had to report the inventory as Q1 inventory...
Intel didn't expect to have ANY Conroe chips ready in Q1...
To answer your question, they ship to all OEMs at the same time (so that it's equal), and OEMs require a large number of chips in order to even set up a production line. Shipments don't go out in dribs and drabs at a chip launch...

Edit: BTW, to give you an idea of scale here, when HP was going to join AMD on the original Opteron launch, AMD shipped them $25 million of Opterons for free to join the launch...of course Intel came in and threatened them at the last minute, so those chips stayed in the warehouse just sitting there...
But this should give you an idea of just how few $200 million in chips is at the tier 1 OEM level