Conroe Availability Answered

[NoStateofMind]

Viditor

If you listen to the link I posted, you'll see that you're wrong on this one...
The inventory you're speaking of actually caught the CFO by surprise. It occured because Intel was able to push Conroe ahead faster than they thought, so they had to report the inventory as Q1 inventory...
Intel didn't expect to have ANY Conroe chips ready in Q1...

How does this fact translate into retail shortages? In fact it shows the opisite....

Viditor

To answer your question, they ship to all OEMs at the same time (so that it's equal), and OEMs require a large number of chips in order to even set up a production line. Shipments don't go out in dribs and drabs at a chip launch...

Exactly, they arent shipping to them on the 27th, they have already shipped in order to have systems ready for sale. 'IF' this is true then, that cannot be listed as inventory if it is already sold

EDIT: Dont forget all the netburst systems they STILL have to get rid of, so there wont be a huge production line of Conroe chips in systems from OEM's.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Viditor

If you listen to the link I posted, you'll see that you're wrong on this one...
The inventory you're speaking of actually caught the CFO by surprise. It occured because Intel was able to push Conroe ahead faster than they thought, so they had to report the inventory as Q1 inventory...
Intel didn't expect to have ANY Conroe chips ready in Q1...

How does this fact translate into retail shortages? In fact it shows the opisite....

Because they mentioned that shipping is just beginning now...and the reason it's relevant is that they said that the $200 million in production ready chips was their total inventory. Also keep in mind that production-ready C2D is only currently coming from part of one Fab (though 2 smaller Fabs are ramping it up), and that Woodcrest and Merom are a higher priority (they make much more profit on these).

Viditor

To answer your question, they ship to all OEMs at the same time (so that it's equal), and OEMs require a large number of chips in order to even set up a production line. Shipments don't go out in dribs and drabs at a chip launch...

Exactly, they arent shipping to them on the 27th, they have already shipped in order to have systems ready for sale. 'IF' this is true then, that cannot be listed as inventory if it is already sold

EDIT: Dont forget all the netburst systems they STILL have to get rid of, so there wont be a huge production line of Conroe chips in systems from OEM's.

Ummm...if they've already shipped them, then when did they produce them? Remember that Conroe is already more than 6 MONTHS ahead of schedule, and it takes 3 months to make a chip...
BTW, they also showed zero income from Conroe in Q2, so they couldn't have shipped any for revenue before July...

 

[imported_inspire]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: inspire

Holy - that's the first time I've heard of that - can we have some links?

Yup...the AMD Conference Call is available here.

The Intel Conference Call is available here.

If only the compys at work had sound cards...

 

[NoStateofMind]

Vitidor

Ummm...if they've already shipped them, then when did they produce them? Remember that Conroe is already more than 6 MONTHS ahead of schedule, and it takes 3 months to make a chip...

lol I'm convinced you were on a debate team.

6 months ahead of schedule shows you when they produced them.

Vitidor

BTW, they also showed zero income from Conroe in Q2, so they couldn't have shipped any for revenue before July...

Exactly, there has been 3 weeks since the beginning of July. Plenty of time for shipments 🙂

You know when they were produced and shipped. Now where are you going to take it?

EDIT: It also would have made no sense at all to sell them before July to OEM's. Because they werent going to make that much of a dent in thier Q2 figures. Allowing them to bolster thier Q3 numbers.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Vitidor

Ummm...if they've already shipped them, then when did they produce them? Remember that Conroe is already more than 6 MONTHS ahead of schedule, and it takes 3 months to make a chip...

lol I'm convinced you were on a debate team.

6 months ahead of schedule shows you when they produced them.

Vitidor

BTW, they also showed zero income from Conroe in Q2, so they couldn't have shipped any for revenue before July...

Exactly, there has been 3 weeks since the beginning of July. Plenty of time for shipments 🙂

You know when they were produced and shipped. Now where are you going to take it?

1. They had $200 million in C2D inventory on July 1 according to the CC, and they had shipped none prior to this.
2. They have a capacity to produce ~4000 wspw (wafer starts per week) now, but 3 months ago it was most likely closer to 1000-2000 wspw (that's when current parts needed to be started).
3. Out of this, they are producing Conroe, Woodcrest, and Merom...with Conroe at the bottom of the priority list.
4. If they are doing better yields than they ever have at the beginning of a ramp, they're at ~65% yield on ~435 candidate dice/wafer. This means that each wafer produces (at best) ~285 chips.
5. If you give Conroe even 33% of the mix, that's a total of about 500k chips possible plus the $200 million worth from inventory...and BTW, that $200 million INCLUDES Woodcrest and Merom!
6. By April of 2004, Intel shipped over 4 million of the P4 Prescotts...but even this number was so low that Dell had to withdraw their Prescott based systems and replace them with older Northwoods until Intel could increase production.

Do you now understand that a few 100k or even 1 million chips doesn't leave very many chips for the channel sellers? OEMs sell 50-60 million PCs (not including servers) PER QUARTER!

 

[yacoub]

All I know is I'm going to see a massive price cut on AMD chips on Monday. That will allow me to pick up an X2 s939 chip cheap and stick it in my current system, remove the overclocks I had on my current Venice 3200+, and hopefully that will fix the instability I've had. If that happens, I won't need to buy a Conroe system for some months yet. That means the immediate availability issues are moot. Even better, the fear of Conroe caused AMD to drop pants/prices now, and that has benefited all of us.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon
Vitidor

Ummm...if they've already shipped them, then when did they produce them? Remember that Conroe is already more than 6 MONTHS ahead of schedule, and it takes 3 months to make a chip...

lol I'm convinced you were on a debate team.

6 months ahead of schedule shows you when they produced them.

Vitidor

BTW, they also showed zero income from Conroe in Q2, so they couldn't have shipped any for revenue before July...

Exactly, there has been 3 weeks since the beginning of July. Plenty of time for shipments 🙂

You know when they were produced and shipped. Now where are you going to take it?

1. They had $200 million in C2D inventory on July 1 according to the CC, and they had shipped none prior to this.
2. They have a capacity to produce ~4000 wspw (wafer starts per week) now, but 3 months ago it was most likely closer to 1000-2000 wspw (that's when current parts needed to be started).
3. Out of this, they are producing Conroe, Woodcrest, and Merom...with Conroe at the bottom of the priority list.
4. If they are doing better yields than they ever have at the beginning of a ramp, they're at ~65% yield on ~435 candidate dice/wafer. This means that each wafer produces (at best) ~285 chips.
5. If you give Conroe even 33% of the mix, that's a total of about 500k chips possible plus the $200 million worth from inventory...and BTW, that $200 million INCLUDES Woodcrest and Merom!
6. By April of 2004, Intel shipped over 4 million of the P4 Prescotts...but even this number was so low that Dell had to withdraw their Prescott based systems and replace them with older Northwoods until Intel could increase production.

Do you now understand that a few 100k or even 1 million chips doesn't leave very many chips for the channel sellers? OEMs sell 50-60 million PCs (not including servers) PER QUARTER!

I have to give you credit for being very knowledgable. But that doesn't change the fact of Conroe availability. As stated before. OEM's have plenty of nebursts to get rid of and they arent just going to throw them away. OEM Conroe's will be at a small percentage at the beginning. Which means there will be PLENTY in retail channels day of launch. Until Dell, HP and the like get rid of old tech, Conroe will be on the back burner.

Also, I know it sounds like an attack on you but I really dont mean it to be, so please understand that when you read my next comment.

Book knowledge doesn't always translate into common sense.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: yacoub
Even better, the fear of Conroe caused AMD to drop pants/prices now, and that has benefited all of us.

Agreed.

 

[zsdersw]

Let's just wait and see what the situation really turns out to be after the launch. AMD cheerleaders will be looking at the availability prism negatively, and the opposite for Intel cheerleaders. The end result remains: we don't know.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon

Originally posted by: wicka
Actually, the idea that the C2D's won't be available until August (August 7th, to be exact) comes straight from Intel. What will be available on July 27th are the Extremes. Now, I am no expert on the subject, but I would shy away from classifying Intel's press releases as "AMD fanboy spread ********." But that's me.

That's funny, I got this in an email from clubIT as well as many others...

INDUSTRY, CA ? July 21: ClubIT.com will be among the first online resellers to have Intel?s newest Core 2 Duo processors in stock. This chip breaks new ground with stunning performance benchmarks, plus operates with only half the power requirements. ClubIT is pleased to announce it will be receiving these chips directly from Intel, so customers will not have to experience additional delays.

Intel?s Core 2 Duo outperforms the Athlon 64 X2/FX family in all areas, including gaming (where AMD has traditionally been very strong). So in terms of number- crunching, the Core 2 Duo is "the crunchiest"! Gamers and business application users will appreciate its speed and muscle. But in addition to pure performance, the Core 2 Duo operates at lower wattage. So it?s easier to cool, with less fan noise.

The Core 2 Duo can process multiple instructions per clock cycle, plus optimizes bandwidth for greater efficiency. It also uses an Advanced Smart Cache that dynamically adjusts the L2 cache to each core, depending on the workload. All this adds up to the Core 2 Duo being the clear choice for performance users.

Note that due to voltage changes, the Core 2 Duo requires a new motherboard. ClubIT carries a wide range of Core 2 Duo compatible motherboards, so you can be upgraded and running in no time. This might also be a good time to upgrade your video card from ClubIT as well, in order to take advantage of the Core 2 Duo's faster processing power.

So upgrade to the Intel Core 2 Duo! Your games and business applications will thank you for it.

ClubIT will begin taking orders on Thursday, July 27

August 7th huh?

Can,t believe you quoting this marketing drivel as confirming availability. All it says is that they will take your order on 7/27, nowhere does it say they will have the chips in stock ready to ship on the 27th. "ClubIT.com will be among the first online resellers to have Intel?s newest Core 2 Duo processors in stock", which translates to "We will get them 8/5-8/7 like everybody else", but we will gladly take your money on 7/27.

Besides 7/27 or 8/7 who cares? It's a friggin week! You guys crack me up! It's like a pack of hungry dogs foaming at the mouth, ready to fight to the death for the first dog bone out of the box😱

 

[imported_inspire]

I guess the reason there is so much arguement about Conroe availability is that the availability of ego band-aids must have dried up.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon

I have to give you credit for being very knowledgable. But that doesn't change the fact of Conroe availability. As stated before. OEM's have plenty of nebursts to get rid of and they arent just going to throw them away. OEM Conroe's will be at a small percentage at the beginning. Which means there will be PLENTY in retail channels day of launch. Until Dell, HP and the like get rid of old tech, Conroe will be on the back burner.

Also, I know it sounds like an attack on you but I really dont mean it to be, so please understand that when you read my next comment.

Book knowledge doesn't always translate into common sense.

Thank you...and no, I don't take it personally. The REASON I have all of that knowledge is that I am a fairly heavy investor in the semiconductor sector (both in AMD and Intel at the moment).
My earlier point was that if you are correct and there is a low adoption by OEMs (meaning fewer than 1 million chips at launch), then Intel will be in BIG trouble financially...OEMs are more than 80% of Intel's business, and a lack of early adoption signals bad things for Intel (in other words, if there IS a large volume in the channel segment, I'll be selling my Intel stock rather quickly).

 

[Henny]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

...and AMD is way behind in manufacturing technology. Intel can be aggressive since they're up on mature/cost effective 300mm/65nm technology. AMD won't have 65nm until late '06/early '07.

Silicon technology is also critical since dual core/multi core consumes more silicon real estate.

Economies of scale are everything in this industry.

?
AMD has already announced and reiterated that 65nm ships in November at fully mature yields. Fab 36 is well ahead of schedule...

Which is roughly a year behind Intel's 65nm technology in an environment where learning curve is everything.

 

[NoStateofMind]

Originally posted by: GuitarDaddy

Originally posted by: PC Surgeon

Originally posted by: wicka
Actually, the idea that the C2D's won't be available until August (August 7th, to be exact) comes straight from Intel. What will be available on July 27th are the Extremes. Now, I am no expert on the subject, but I would shy away from classifying Intel's press releases as "AMD fanboy spread ********." But that's me.

That's funny, I got this in an email from clubIT as well as many others...

INDUSTRY, CA ? July 21: ClubIT.com will be among the first online resellers to have Intel?s newest Core 2 Duo processors in stock. This chip breaks new ground with stunning performance benchmarks, plus operates with only half the power requirements. ClubIT is pleased to announce it will be receiving these chips directly from Intel, so customers will not have to experience additional delays.

Intel?s Core 2 Duo outperforms the Athlon 64 X2/FX family in all areas, including gaming (where AMD has traditionally been very strong). So in terms of number- crunching, the Core 2 Duo is "the crunchiest"! Gamers and business application users will appreciate its speed and muscle. But in addition to pure performance, the Core 2 Duo operates at lower wattage. So it?s easier to cool, with less fan noise.

The Core 2 Duo can process multiple instructions per clock cycle, plus optimizes bandwidth for greater efficiency. It also uses an Advanced Smart Cache that dynamically adjusts the L2 cache to each core, depending on the workload. All this adds up to the Core 2 Duo being the clear choice for performance users.

Note that due to voltage changes, the Core 2 Duo requires a new motherboard. ClubIT carries a wide range of Core 2 Duo compatible motherboards, so you can be upgraded and running in no time. This might also be a good time to upgrade your video card from ClubIT as well, in order to take advantage of the Core 2 Duo's faster processing power.

So upgrade to the Intel Core 2 Duo! Your games and business applications will thank you for it.

ClubIT will begin taking orders on Thursday, July 27

August 7th huh?

Can,t believe you quoting this marketing drivel as confirming availability. All it says is that they will take your order on 7/27, nowhere does it say they will have the chips in stock ready to ship on the 27th. "ClubIT.com will be among the first online resellers to have Intel?s newest Core 2 Duo processors in stock", which translates to "We will get them 8/5-8/7 like everybody else", but we will gladly take your money on 7/27.

Besides 7/27 or 8/7 who cares? It's a friggin week! You guys crack me up! It's like a pack of hungry dogs foaming at the mouth, ready to fight to the death for the first dog bone out of the box😱

ROFL!! that last bit was truly funny! Yes, its a week, and possibly when it will ship. But I wouldn't be surprised if on the 27th they were readily available.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Henny

Originally posted by: eelw

Originally posted by: AnandThenMan
If this is the case, then like I said, Intel is going to bleed cash at a record pace. The profit margin for a legacy Celeron is near nothing.

Won't be as much money as AMD is eating into their margins with this 60% price cuts.

...and AMD is way behind in manufacturing technology. Intel can be aggressive since they're up on mature/cost effective 300mm/65nm technology. AMD won't have 65nm until late '06/early '07.

Silicon technology is also critical since dual core/multi core consumes more silicon real estate.

Economies of scale are everything in this industry.

?
AMD has already announced and reiterated that 65nm ships in November at fully mature yields. Fab 36 is well ahead of schedule...

Which is roughly a year behind Intel's 65nm technology in an environment where learning curve is everything.

I think you missed the part about AMD having fully mature yields on 65nm this year...not immature (implied) yields in early 07.

 

[imported_wicka]

People seem to be ignoring that Intel said that the C2D Extremes will be available on the 27th, and the other models on the 7th. Anyone can say that the C2D's will be out on the 27th just because one model is, and it's true, but it's not what a lot of people are looking to buy.

 

[zsdersw]

(in other words, if there IS a large volume in the channel segment, I'll be selling my Intel stock rather quickly).

And what if there's volume in the channel segment *and* the OEMs?

Beyond that, though, I find it hard to believe that you would buy Intel stock.

 

[coldpower27]

Originally posted by: Viditor
I think you missed the part about AMD having fully mature yields on 65nm this year...not immature (implied) yields in early 07.

Please don't sugar coat this. Unless you can find the exact words "fully mature". And I am certainly not digging through 3 hours of conference calls to find it.

All I remember, is that one of AMD's important people saying is that 65nm production will come out at mature yields. Whatever that means, both AMD and Intel have a habit of being vague on this issue.

Well judging from the 65nm roadmap, AMD is on schedule now for a 65nm launch, in Late 2006. Fab 36 seems to be on time.

Though that doesn't change the fact, that Intel launched both the 65nm Core Duo and Pentium D 9xx sequence in January of this year.

 

[dexvx]

Whats your point? Intel fab technology has always been 12 months ahead of AMD. A quarter after AMD ships their first 65nm, Intel will ship their first 45nm.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: coldpower27

Originally posted by: Viditor
I think you missed the part about AMD having fully mature yields on 65nm this year...not immature (implied) yields in early 07.

Please don't sugar coat this. Unless you can find the exact words "fully mature". And I am certainly not digging through 3 hours of conference calls to find it.

All I remember, is that one of AMD's important people saying is that 65nm production will come out at mature yields. Whatever that means, both AMD and Intel have a habit of being vague on this issue.

Well judging from the 65nm roadmap, AMD is on schedule now for a 65nm launch, in Late 2006. Fab 36 seems to be on time.

Though that doesn't change the fact, that Intel launched both the 65nm Core Duo and Pentium D 9xx sequence in January of this year.

I believe it was Henri, and he definately said "fully mature"...and Hector also mentioned that Fab 36 was ahead of schedule.
Some other interesting things to note were:
1. Fab 30 will not slip below 50% production during it's transition to 300mm
2. 45nm will be ahead of schedule (shipping 6 months after Intel plans to)
3. When asked about what architectual changes will be happening at the end of this year, they said that they couldn't talk about it yet.
4. Quad core native chips (not MCMs) will be shipping by mid 07

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: dexvx
Whats your point? Intel fab technology has always been 12 months ahead of AMD. A quarter after AMD ships their first 65nm, Intel will ship their first 45nm.

When was this announced? Intel has pushed 45nm ahead 1 full year???

 

[coldpower27]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: coldpower27

Originally posted by: Viditor
I think you missed the part about AMD having fully mature yields on 65nm this year...not immature (implied) yields in early 07.

Please don't sugar coat this. Unless you can find the exact words "fully mature". And I am certainly not digging through 3 hours of conference calls to find it.

All I remember, is that one of AMD's important people saying is that 65nm production will come out at mature yields. Whatever that means, both AMD and Intel have a habit of being vague on this issue.

Well judging from the 65nm roadmap, AMD is on schedule now for a 65nm launch, in Late 2006. Fab 36 seems to be on time.

Though that doesn't change the fact, that Intel launched both the 65nm Core Duo and Pentium D 9xx sequence in January of this year.

I believe it was Henri, and he definately said "fully mature"...and Hector also mentioned that Fab 36 was ahead of schedule.
Some other interesting things to note were:
1. Fab 30 will not slip below 50% production during it's transition to 300mm
2. 45nm will be ahead of schedule (shipping 6 months after Intel plans to)
3. When asked about what architectual changes will be happening at the end of this year, they said that they couldn't talk about it yet.
4. Quad core native chips (not MCMs) will be shipping by mid 07

Ignoring the rest, what time index, did Henri, say this, in the conference call.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: coldpower27

Ignoring the rest, what time index, did Henri, say this, in the conference call.

Arrrgh...it's almost 4 AM here, but that's a fair question. I want to listen to it again, so I'll post back tomorrow after I get a few hours sleep tonight/this morning (it was a fairly long CC)...fair enough?

 

[coldpower27]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: coldpower27

Ignoring the rest, what time index, did Henri, say this, in the conference call.

Arrrgh...it's almost 4 AM here, but that's a fair question. I want to listen to it again, so I'll post back tomorrow after I get a few hours sleep tonight/this morning (it was a fairly long CC)...fair enough?

Well, considering the last 2 times I asked you for a direct link you failed to provide them I am not holding my breath.

Very, well I will expect you to reply to this within the next 24 hours.

 

[athfbum]

There should be enough Conroe's for everybody 😀

Since the cheap Gigabyte P965 mobo sold out, I am going to get an Abit AB9 Socket T P965 or Intel BOXDP965LTCK.