Coakley-Brown Senate Race in Mass on Jan. 19 - Dems could 60 seat Majority !

[First]

^ lmao.

 

[fskimospy]

You need to tell that to Barney Frank
""If Scott Brown wins, it'll kill the health bill.""

Tomorrow's election is the closest we have to a public referendum on Obamacare and if the Democrats lose in the bluest of blue state then it is all over, at least in its present form.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/0110/Frank_Health_care_dead_if_Coakley_loses.html

Of course they say that, surely as a Republican you recognize the use of fear to motivate people in politics?

Use your brain. Do you really think that if Brown wins the seat that the Democrats are either going to give up on health care or go back to the drawing board? Really?

You're not a dumb guy, think through the scenarios for a minute. (keep in mind what you WANT to happen has no bearing on what WILL happen)

 

[Fern]

I don't know that I've ever seen so much irony as I do in this situation.

Ted kennedy, 'Mr. Health Care reform', passes away at a most inopportune time and the election for his replacement may be the thing that kills the HC bill.

A week ago I would have scoffed at the notion of a Republican replacing him, yet I see Chuck Todd on TV saying his and other polling suggests Brown will win.

Apparently the only reason this election is being held is because of the Dem's concerns about Romney (A Repub) having the ability to name a replacement for Congresspersons in situations such as this. So they took that ability away from the governor and mandated a special election. Oh how the 'Law of Unintended Consequences' reigns supreme.

If Brown wins it will be truly fascinating to see how this plays out. Can the House pass the Senate version with no changes? What will unions do? Their concessions from the White House will have been for nought. Will the House pass the bill with the highly unpopular Nebraska give-away still in it?

Will those in the House, already not liking the Senate bill, vote for it after seeing how the Bluest-of-Blue states rejects it? Can they afford to commit what surely looks to be political suicide by voting for it?

Efforts to use the reconciliation process to pass a HC bill would be amusing also. After striping out the non-conforming (non-conforming vis-a-vis the reconcilliation rules) provisions of any agreed upon bill, what will be left?

Fern

 

[Fern]

-snip-
Do you really think that if Brown wins the seat that the Democrats are either going to give up on health care or go back to the drawing board?

Their options are clear, no one denies that.

And none of them are very good.

As it was, a conference to adjust for the differences in the Senate and House version was going to be difficult. If Brown wins it'll be just that much tougher to get something passed.

Fern

 

[Double Trouble]

All I can say is "wow". The fact that a relatively conservative republican has a chance to take over the democrat seat in the most democrat state in the country is wonderful news for those of us hoping for gridlock.

It's also really really sad that the democrats are so hell-bent on forcing legislation that the country does not want (based on the polls), that they are willing to go to all lengths to do it, no matter the consequences. All I can say is, I hope voters will remember that in November and will punish them severely.

I also find the ironing to be delicious with regard to the democrats messing around with the rules back in 2004. They didn't want Romney to be able to appoint an interim senator, so they changed the rules so the governor couldn't do so. Now I hope that stupidity comes back to bite them in the ass. Both parties need to learn that taking drastic steps to further a short term political agenda (like in 2004) is a bad idea.

 

[Double Trouble]

Their options are clear, no one denies that.

And none of them are very good.

Fern

Indeed. They have lots of options on the table, and none of them are pretty. If they go nuclear, or if they use some delaying tactics to get what they want, odds are it will make them look even more petty and just make the people even less likely to vote for them in November. :thumbsup:

 

[Patranus]

Brown up by 9....
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/coakley_brown_t.html

bump

 

[fskimospy]

Their options are clear, no one denies that.

And none of them are very good.

As it was, a conference to adjust for the differences in the Senate and House version was going to be difficult. If Brown wins it'll be just that much tougher to get something passed.

Fern

Not really, neither way will actually make things very difficult.

Every Democrat knows that to not pass a bill is electoral suicide, therefore passing a bill is actually extremely easy. What type of bill it will be would be slightly different with Brown being elected as opposed to otherwise, but it's not going to be hard.

 

[ProfJohn]

Of course they say that, surely as a Republican you recognize the use of fear to motivate people in politics?

Use your brain. Do you really think that if Brown wins the seat that the Democrats are either going to give up on health care or go back to the drawing board? Really?

You're not a dumb guy, think through the scenarios for a minute. (keep in mind what you WANT to happen has no bearing on what WILL happen)

Go back and read what Barney Frank said...

 

[fskimospy]

Go back and read what Barney Frank said...

Yeap. My questions to you still stand. If you stop looking at this as a partisan and start analyzing the options available it's incredibly easy to see that a bill that is substantively the same as the one under consideration (and very likely the EXACT same bill) is by far the most likely answer.

Your statement that health care was 'toast' is exceedingly unlikely, all it sounds like is wishful partisan thinking.

 

[Double Trouble]

Not really, neither way will actually make things very difficult.

Every Democrat knows that to not pass a bill is electoral suicide, therefore passing a bill is actually extremely easy. What type of bill it will be would be slightly different with Brown being elected as opposed to otherwise, but it's not going to be hard.

Not passing a bill might be electoral suicide, but I'm not so certain that passing this steaming pile of a bill is really any better at this point. It's pretty clear that the public does not want this thing.

 

[fskimospy]

Not passing a bill might be electoral suicide, but I'm not so certain that passing this steaming pile of a bill is really any better at this point. It's pretty clear that the public does not want this thing.

It's really not. The approve/disapprove is about 10 points against it on average according to RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

As has been talked about before quite a bit of that disapproval is from liberals like me who want a MORE progressive bill, from them the complaint is that we will need another bill like this on top of this one to get the way the US does health care to compete with the rest of the first world. It's highly unlikely that they would be angry at the passage of this bill, they would just want more tacked on later.

 

[Genx87]

It's really not. The approve/disapprove is about 10 points against it on average according to RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html

As has been talked about before quite a bit of that disapproval is from liberals like me who want a MORE progressive bill, from them the complaint is that we will need another bill like this on top of this one to get the way the US does health care to compete with the rest of the first world. It's highly unlikely that they would be angry at the passage of this bill, they would just want more tacked on later.

You think this turd being disapproved by that kind of margin is "not really"? Time to take the blinders off. I am sure democrats have already. Especially with this debacle in one of the most liberal states in the country. This special election should be won by 20 points by the Democrats. Now there is a real possibility they lose.

 

[fskimospy]

You think this turd being disapproved by that kind of margin is "not really"? Time to take the blinders off. I am sure democrats have already. Especially with this debacle in one of the most liberal states in the country. This special election should be won by 20 points by the Democrats. Now there is a real possibility they lose.

You do realize that Obama's health care plan has majority support in Massachusetts, right?

It was 'not really' due to what I said in my second paragraph. Disapproving of a bill because you want it to be even more of the same than it is is a far different thing from disapproving of it because you don't want it at all, particularly in the realm of electoral politics this means a lot.

 

[Carmen813]

You think this turd being disapproved by that kind of margin is "not really"? Time to take the blinders off. I am sure democrats have already. Especially with this debacle in one of the most liberal states in the country. This special election should be won by 20 points by the Democrats. Now there is a real possibility they lose.

The margins I see are 40% for, 55% against, 5% undecided. That's not really a large margin, you switch one in ten minds and it goes the other way. Keep in mind these polls do not ask the opinions of a lot of voters (specifically those who use cell phones).

 

[Genx87]

You do realize that Obama's health care plan has majority support in Massachusetts, right?

It was 'not really' due to what I said in my second paragraph. Disapproving of a bill because you want it to be even more of the same than it is is a far different thing from disapproving of it because you don't want it at all, particularly in the realm of electoral politics this means a lot.

Right, and all of those people who know SS needs to be reformed but didnt like Bush's push forgot in 06 as well. Passing a bill 50% of the people dont like is a sure fire way to get booted from office. You'd think the Dems could learn from their 94 implosion.

 

[Genx87]

The margins I see are 40% for, 55% against, 5% undecided. That's not really a large margin, you switch one in ten minds and it goes the other way. Keep in mind these polls do not ask the opinions of a lot of voters (specifically those who use cell phones).

That is a rather large margin are you kidding me?

 

[Double Trouble]

The margins I see are 40% for, 55% against, 5% undecided. That's not really a large margin, you switch one in ten minds and it goes the other way. Keep in mind these polls do not ask the opinions of a lot of voters (specifically those who use cell phones).

55% to 45% is a huge margin for something like this. Think of it this way... you know 30% of the people will hate any democrat plan no matter what, and 30% of the people will love anything Obama does no matter what, and 5% are undecided. So that leaves 35% of the people who I consider to be rational thinkers, people who are independents, moderate dems or moderate repubs. For there to be a 55-45 gap, it means the independents are against this thing by a 2.5 to 1 ratio, an overwhelming number. Those are the swing voters in every election, that 35% group... whichever way they go, the election goes.

Even if Brown loses at this point, this is setting off all sorts of alarm bells for dems up for re-election, they can see the writing on the wall and they need to start working on framing their message better or they'll get the boot.

 

[Capt Caveman]

Brown up by 9....
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/coakley_brown_t.html

bump

?????

With the clock ticking inexorably towards Tuesday's election and a new poll showing them in a dead heat, Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Scott Brown are crisscrossing the state today in a last-minute scramble for votes in a race that has drawn national attention.

The new poll, done for the liberal Daily Kos blog by Research 2000, found Brown and Coakley tied, 48-48. The telephone poll of 500 randomly selected voters was conducted Friday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

 

[Carmen813]

55% to 45% is a huge margin for something like this. Think of it this way... you know 30% of the people will hate any democrat plan no matter what, and 30% of the people will love anything Obama does no matter what, and 5% are undecided. So that leaves 35% of the people who I consider to be rational thinkers, people who are independents, moderate dems or moderate repubs. For there to be a 55-45 gap, it means the independents are against this thing by a 2.5 to 1 ratio, an overwhelming number. Those are the swing voters in every election, that 35% group... whichever way they go, the election goes.

Even if Brown loses at this point, this is setting off all sorts of alarm bells for dems up for re-election, they can see the writing on the wall and they need to start working on framing their message better or they'll get the boot.

Ah, but see you are assuming that all liberals are on board with this bill. Many are not, last I checked around 30%. Win them back over and its enough to move it closer to 50/50. It's really not a huge margin.

Public Policy Polling put out their latest MA poll last night. They are usually pretty good, and you can see the health care opinion there is pretty close (40-48, 12 undecided).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

 

[spidey07]

All I can say is "wow". The fact that a relatively conservative republican has a chance to take over the democrat seat in the most democrat state in the country is wonderful news for those of us hoping for gridlock.

It's also really really sad that the democrats are so hell-bent on forcing legislation that the country does not want (based on the polls), that they are willing to go to all lengths to do it, no matter the consequences. All I can say is, I hope voters will remember that in November and will punish them severely.

I also find the ironing to be delicious with regard to the democrats messing around with the rules back in 2004. They didn't want Romney to be able to appoint an interim senator, so they changed the rules so the governor couldn't do so. Now I hope that stupidity comes back to bite them in the ass. Both parties need to learn that taking drastic steps to further a short term political agenda (like in 2004) is a bad idea.

Obama is going all in. On a pair of twos.

We call.

 

[JSt0rm]

538 says croak has a 25% chance of winning. The positive spin on that is its still a fairly good chance as 90% of races aren't that close.

 

[Double Trouble]

Ah, but see you are assuming that all liberals are on board with this bill. Many are not, last I checked around 30%. Win them back over and its enough to move it closer to 50/50. It's really not a huge margin.

Possibly, but I'd bet anything that most die hard lefties who don't think the bill goes far enough would still ultimately support the bill because they think it's better than status quo. If that's true, it's a huge margin.

Public Policy Polling put out their latest MA poll last night. They are usually pretty good, and you can see the health care opinion there is pretty close (40-48, 12 undecided).
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MA_117468963846.pdf

Ok, so if in the bluest of all blue states the public is still against this health care bill, you can only imagine how much the rest of hte country is opposed to it. People like Nelson etc have to be sweating it, they know their constituents are pissed.

 

[cubby1223]

It's pretty hilarious watching Rachel Maddow try to spin this coming election!

Apparently two years ago in an interview, a non-prepared comment was made that Obama's mother was married when Obama was born, Brown didn't know if that was true or not - so now to the "progressives" this means Brown is an extreme radical conspirator and not fit for public office.

Also interesting how New York's 23rd congressional district race was definitely a referendum for Obama-care, but certainly not this MA Senate race, has nothing to do with national issues for some reason...

 

[Lemon law]

I have to agree the this Senate race is not going to be any kind of national referendum.
Credit where credit is due, Brown is the better campaigner, and seems to have more of the charisma Cockley lacks.

And given the plethora of polls, this election will be a fingernail biter.

But regardless of how this election turns out, the Dems will not have the unity to utilize their super majority if Cockley wins, and regardless if Brown wins or not, the R's will still stand for nothing but grid lock.

Regardless of how its cut, spun, and propagandized, the can will still be kicked down the road to the definitive election of 11/2010.

Because I am not a Massachusetts voter, I must stand on the sidelines and watch. But come the election of 11/2010, I plan to vote my disgust with both parties. But I reserve most of my disgust with the GOP who now stands for gridlock at any cost.