[chiphell] kepler rumors suggest 15% better than 580.. price and transistors

[Quantos]

The point is that "unofficial rumoured links" have in this case about the same weight in the balance as logic. Logically, you'd expect the letter to increase, and the numbers to remain the same.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

GK104 should replace the GF114 both in price and performance, meaning $200-299 price point and GTX570/580 performance.

just like how the 7970 replaced the 6970 @ $369? Oh, wait...

I think this next gen is going to increase the overall performance spectrum, and that pricing will change to match

 

[AtenRa]

From the specs here it seams that GK104 could be the GF104 replacement with 48 Cuda cores per SM, much like GF104 and GF114. It was only logical to extrapolate that GK104 should replace the GF104/114.

 

[Quantos]

just like how the 7970 replaced the 6970 @ $369? Oh, wait...

I think this next gen is going to increase the overall performance spectrum, and that pricing will change to match

Well, viewed that way, the pricing would never stop to increase as the performance increases with each generation. Sure, 28nm is more expensive at the moment than 40nm, but it's only going to drop. There's always either AMD or Nvidia with a lower performing card that's ready to drop the price a bit to sell a card. Considering that happens all the time, overtime, the prices overall will probably not change that much.

The 7970 is more expensive because relative to the cards currently on the market, its pricing makes sense.

 

[Keysplayr]

GF100 - GTX465, GTX470, GTX480
GF110 - GTX560Ti(448), GTX570, GTX580, GTX590
GF104 - GTX460
GF114 - GTX560, GTX560Ti(384)
GF106 - GTS450/455
GF116 - GTX545, GTX550Ti
GF108 - GT430
GF118 - GT530

GK104 would be the next gen equivilent (not in performance, but in performance segment) to a GTX460, GTX560, GTX560Ti. AKA GTX660/760

GK100 would be the next gen equivilent (not in performance, but in performance segment) to a GTX470, GTX480, GTX570, GTX580. AKA GTX670/770 GTX680/780.

I'm not stating any of this as "fact". This is just my speculation of how things will go down.

And it lends some credence to the quick 8xxx series refresh rumor Videoclone posted about:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2218633

Maybe AMD knows whats coming and what they have to deal with. "IF" GK104 is indeed mainstream equivilent of todays GTX560 and is 15% faster than GTX580, That brings it within a hairs breadth of 7970. So AMD cant be expected to compete with GK100 using 7970 Tahiti. Maybe a 1500MHz water cooled version, but I doubt that will come to pass or even be enough.

 

[Riek]

GF100 - GTX465, GTX470, GTX480
GF110 - GTX560Ti(448), GTX570, GTX580, GTX590
GF104 - GTX460
GF114 - GTX560, GTX560Ti(384)
GF106 - GTS450/455
GF116 - GTX545, GTX550Ti
GF108 - GT430
GF118 - GT530

GK104 would be the next gen equivilent (not in performance, but in performance segment) to a GTX460, GTX560, GTX560Ti. AKA GTX660/760

GK100 would be the next gen equivilent (not in performance, but in performance segment) to a GTX470, GTX480, GTX570, GTX580. AKA GTX670/770 GTX680/780.

I'm not stating any of this as "fact". This is just my speculation of how things will go down.

And it lends some credence to the quick 8xxx series refresh rumor Videoclone posted about:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2218633

Maybe AMD knows whats coming and what they have to deal with. "IF" GK104 is indeed mainstream equivilent of todays GTX560 and is 15% faster than GTX580, That brings it within a hairs breadth of 7970. So AMD cant be expected to compete with GK100 using 7970 Tahiti. Maybe a 1500MHz water cooled version, but I doubt that will come to pass or even be enough.

I doubt AMD is thinking about that... because according to this rumour the 104 would have a TDP of 225W... which doesn't give them alot of headroom within the 300W budget.
Also AMd doesn't really care that much about single gpu performance crown.


Topping that: If that TDP mark is anything like the previous nvidia TDP marks, the 7970 oced to 1125 (+18% performance) will still consume less!

 

[Keysplayr]

I doubt AMD is thinking about that... because according to this rumour the 104 would have a TDP of 225W... which doesn't give them alot of headroom within the 300W budget.
Also AMd doesn't really care that much about single gpu performance crown.


Topping that: If that TDP mark is anything like the previous nvidia TDP marks, the 7970 oced to 1125 (+18% performance) will still consume less!

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4135/nvidias-geforce-gtx-560-ti-upsetting-the-250-market/16
What's the TDP for the current GTX560 or 560Ti? It CAN pull 225 via it's connectors, but it pulls 170W max. 156W in Crysis. 200W if you're running Furmark which as we all know creats a higher power draw than any game out there ever could.
225W is probably just the MAX the card could possibly draw via connectors. Doesn't mean that's how much it'll use though. Right?
And besides, if you're power consumption centric, you'll buy what serves you best anyway.
But don't forget, that 225W number is the MAX and will most likely never be approached by a GTX560Ti (for example).

 

[Riek]

What's the TDP for the current GTX560 or 560Ti? It CAN pull 225 via it's connectors, but it pulls 170W. 200W if you're running Furmark.
225W is probably just the MAX the card could possibly draw via connectors. Doesn't mean that's how much it'll use though. Right?

560ti ->210W TDP (crippled gf110 die)
560 -> 170W TDP

And besides, if you're power consumption centric, you'll buy what serves you best anyway.

that was not my point. If the so called middle generation cards (according to some) already rated at 225W TDP and the PCI spec is 300W, you see they have little room to get in the 35% that people hope?

Either way i don't buy the OBr specs.

 

[Arzachel]

Another thing, they're losing 40% shader clocks while only gaining 12% shaders. Wouldn't that mean each shader has to be twice as wide to hit 2TFlops?

If the shaders stay the same, there is no way this would beat a GTX 580.

 

[Keysplayr]

560ti ->210W TDP (crippled gf110 die)
560 -> 170W TDP


that was not my point. If the so called middle generation cards (according to some) already rated at 225W TDP and the PCI spec is 300W, you see they have little room to get in the 35% that people hope?

You have to do your research a little more carefully.

GTX560Ti is GF114 with 384 cores
GTX560Ti (448) is GF110.
The GTX560Ti is 170W Riek.

I had shown you that in the post you originally quoted me on. Read man read!!!

 

[Grooveriding]

Not good news for nvidia if true. If this is their 570 equivelant parts performance, and at $400 it would have to be, this will be very dissapointing. With recent tests showing overclocked 7970s to be 50% faster than overclocked 580s in games like Battlefieild 3

They are going to have to do better than this. With the clearly wide open field AMD or AIBs have to release Tahiti just with clocks like seen in this graph as stock using the excellent linear overclocking to FPS gain of 7970. Never mind the rumours of 1300+ core 7970s to come that would be even faster than this graph or references to a 7970 with even more shader cores

With this card being rumoured for $400, that would be the price point we expect of the 770 leading to the 780 and quite dissapointing at only 15% faster than a 580. Of course there is no real solid data on what nvidia has coming, nothing but 3 or 4 obviously fake slides, so we don't really know.

All that is clear after hearing nothing at CES and having no concrete data on the web, is that we likely have a good wait in store until we see anything of their high parts and 7970 buyers will get good value/time as 5870 launch buyers did. Perhaps we'll see something in April or May with accurate specs on kepler.

 

[Keysplayr]

Another thing, they're losing 40% shader clocks while only gaining 12% shaders. Wouldn't that mean each shader has to be twice as wide to hit 2TFlops?

If the shaders stay the same, there is no way this would beat a GTX 580.

I wouldn't get too hung up on shader clocks. That doesn't mean much if the architecture is going through changes.

 

[Keysplayr]

Not good news for nvidia if true. If this is their 570 equivelant parts performance, and at $400 it would have to be, this will be very dissapointing. With recent tests showing overclocked 7970s to be 50% faster than overclocked 580s in games like Battlefieild 3

They are going to have to do better than this. With the clearly wide open field AMD or AIBs have to release Tahiti just with clocks like seen in this graph as stock using the excellent linear overclocking to FPS gain of 7970. Never mind the rumours of 1300+ core 7970s to come that would be even faster than this graph or references to a 7970 with even more shader cores

With this card being rumoured for $400, that would be the price point we expect of the 770 leading to the 780 and quite dissapointing at only 15% faster than a 580. Of course there is no real solid data on what nvidia has coming, nothing but 3 or 4 obviously fake slides, so we don't really know.

All that is clear after hearing nothing at CES and having no concrete data on the web, is that we likely have a good wait in store until we see anything of their high parts and 7970 buyers will get good value/time as 5870 launch buyers did. Perhaps we'll see something in April or May with accurate specs on kepler.

It's most likely Nvidia's GTX760, not GTX770. And probably a 299.00 price point if history serves as a mainstream indicator. Whatever it is, I'm sure it'll be priced according to it's performance.

 

[Arkadrel]

Guys...

lets say this GK104 = 760.

that means nvidia still has a chip above it, that they ll use for 770 and 780's.
And if this 760 is ~10% faster than a 580, then that doesnt sound so bad.
That means it ll be slightly faster than the 7890, and compete with that and the 7950 perphaps
(abit slower than the 7950).

Still Nvidia still has the 770/780 to compete with the 7950 and 7970.

Whatever it is, I'm sure it'll be priced according to it's performance.

That wont be true, because its listed as lower than the 580 is, in price, but rumored to be about 10% faster.

Another thing, they're losing 40% shader clocks while only gaining 12% shaders. Wouldn't that mean each shader has to be twice as wide to hit 2TFlops?

If the shaders stay the same, there is no way this would beat a GTX 580.

Chiphell thinks it beats the 580.

 

[Crap Daddy]

Not good news for nvidia if true. If this is their 570 equivelant parts performance, and at $400 it would have to be, this will be very dissapointing. With recent tests showing overclocked 7970s to be 50% faster than overclocked 580s in games like Battlefieild 3

They are going to have to do better than this. With the clearly wide open field AMD or AIBs have to release Tahiti just with clocks like seen in this graph as stock using the excellent linear overclocking to FPS gain of 7970. Never mind the rumours of 1300+ core 7970s to come that would be even faster than this graph or references to a 7970 with even more shader cores

With this card being rumoured for $400, that would be the price point we expect of the 770 leading to the 780 and quite dissapointing at only 15% faster than a 580. Of course there is no real solid data on what nvidia has coming, nothing but 3 or 4 obviously fake slides, so we don't really know.

All that is clear after hearing nothing at CES and having no concrete data on the web, is that we likely have a good wait in store until we see anything of their high parts and 7970 buyers will get good value/time as 5870 launch buyers did. Perhaps we'll see something in April or May with accurate specs on kepler.

First you don't compare oveclocked cards to stock. Overall performance of the 7970 is up to 20% over the 580. The card we see in the leaks is a midrange card which is supposed to be 10-15% over the GTX580 at 400$ price point. If you do the math it should be close to a 550$ card. What's not good? Oh, and the max power consumption for the 560Ti is 218W - within what we see in the leak - while the max for 7970 is 270W.

 

[blackened23]

First you don't compare oveclocked cards to stock. Overall performance of the 7970 is up to 20% over the 580. The card we see in the leaks is a midrange card which is supposed to be 10-15% over the GTX580 at 400$ price point. If you do the math it should be close to a 550$ card. What's not good? Oh, and the max power consumption for the 560Ti is 218W - within what we see in the leak - while the max for 7970 is 270W.

You serious dude? The GTX 580 in that review IS OVERCLOCKED to 860.

And the GTX 580 is not a 400$ price point. 1.5gb GTX 580 MSRP is 489.99 and 3gb GTX 580 MSRP is 589.99. Meanwhile the 7970 3gb MSRP is 549.99.

Your chart was a mild overclock. With the maximum overclock here, the 7970 is 49% faster than the _overclocked_ GTX 580.

 

[nsavop]

Not good news for nvidia if true. If this is their 570 equivelant parts performance, and at $400 it would have to be, this will be very dissapointing. With recent tests showing overclocked 7970s to be 50% faster than overclocked 580s in games like Battlefieild 3

They are going to have to do better than this. With the clearly wide open field AMD or AIBs have to release Tahiti just with clocks like seen in this graph as stock using the excellent linear overclocking to FPS gain of 7970. Never mind the rumours of 1300+ core 7970s to come that would be even faster than this graph or references to a 7970 with even more shader cores

With this card being rumoured for $400, that would be the price point we expect of the 770 leading to the 780 and quite dissapointing at only 15% faster than a 580. Of course there is no real solid data on what nvidia has coming, nothing but 3 or 4 obviously fake slides, so we don't really know.

All that is clear after hearing nothing at CES and having no concrete data on the web, is that we likely have a good wait in store until we see anything of their high parts and 7970 buyers will get good value/time as 5870 launch buyers did. Perhaps we'll see something in April or May with accurate specs on kepler.

I think we all agree the 7970 is a great overclocker but apples to apples is not nearly as impressive.

 

[Arkadrel]

Air overclocked 580, vs air overclocked 7970.
Playing BF3 @2560x1600 at the settings [H] did:

54.6 avg fps vs 36.8 avg fps = ~48% differnce.


@nsavop


that apples to apples, you show thats stock 7970 vs a factory overclocked 580 though, right?

 

[Lonyo]

I doubt AMD is thinking about that... because according to this rumour the 104 would have a TDP of 225W... which doesn't give them alot of headroom within the 300W budget.
Also AMd doesn't really care that much about single gpu performance crown.


Topping that: If that TDP mark is anything like the previous nvidia TDP marks, the 7970 oced to 1125 (+18% performance) will still consume less!

No one cares about the PCIe power spec anymore, they just make what they want.

 

[Arzachel]

I wouldn't get too hung up on shader clocks. That doesn't mean much if the architecture is going through changes.

That's the issue. From what I gather, Nvidia has positioned Kepler as an improvement on the same basis that Fermi has made. Dropping hotclocks and doubling shader width is everything but that. Changes like this should be advertised ala Fermi and GCN... unless they're unexpected.

If this spec sheet and the rumor about the process not taking well to high clocks, then oh boy. Being an Nvidia engineer would be quite a bad place to be.

No one cares about the PCIe power spec anymore, they just make what they want.

This is not true, both AMD and Nvidia have been trying their hardest to fit within the 300W limit using Powertune and the likes. One company releasing a consumer card, that overshot the limit would create an arms race.

 

[blackened23]

I think we all agree the 7970 is a great overclocker but apples to apples is not nearly as impressive.

Hmm? I don't think anyone is going to run 7970 at stock because it overclocks easily with little increase in TDP. Furthermore, the overclocked 7970 was 49-70% faster over the overclocked GTX 580 in that review. Its a valid comparison, the 7970 has been shown to be ridiculously easy to overclock even without voltage tweaking. In comparison, the reference GTX 580 gets incredibly hot with voltage tweaking, and difficult to achieve 150+ overclocks with unless you get a "tweaked" card such as the MSI lightning.

 

[Grooveriding]

First you don't compare oveclocked cards to stock. Overall performance of the 7970 is up to 20% over the 580. The card we see in the leaks is a midrange card which is supposed to be 10-15% over the GTX580 at 400$ price point. If you do the math it should be close to a 550$ card. What's not good? Oh, and the max power consumption for the 560Ti is 218W - within what we see in the leak - while the max for 7970 is 270W.

I linked this graph which is indeed overclocked card vs overclocked, not overclocked vs stock.

Battlefield 3 is also the game that showed the smallest disparity between the 7970 and 580 in all testing done. So what we are seeing now that retail cards are available and reviewers are running overclocked reviews is the huge potential AMD has in Tahiti. The gains in framerate are linear to the gains applied to the core.

That is a huge win for AMD and what you want to see in an architecture. The 7970 is just the tip of the iceberg. They could release a card clocked as you see above, 1260Mhz on the core, and now you have a card that is faster than an overclocked 580 by 50% in Battlefield 3. The game that showed the smallest disparity. Look at another game with these clocks applied:

Here the OCed 7970 is 70% faster than an overclocked 580. Do you see where this is going ? There is huge potential in the 7970. With rumours of more shaders in a future card in tandem with these clocks and you'll see a card twice as fast as an overclocked 580 in certain games.

You're also putting your own personal adjustments on this rumour/leak/whatever to suit your argument. The leak claims the card is going to be $400, if this equates to a mid-range card, meaning 460/560 type card - $400 seems way off point. Although it would make more sense for only being 15% faster than a 580 at that price point, it would not hit that $200-$249 pricepoint that targets what most people are willing to spend on a discreet card.

I don't think this leak can be accurate and if it is, it's bad news. They have to do better than that. This could be the reason for the delays again. With all this talk of adjusting the shader architecture it sounds like there is still work to be done even getting out a functional ready for market chip on 28nm at nvidia. I'm not up to speed on how long it takes from having a market ready design to selling a card in a store, but I thought it was in the 4-6 month range ?

So in May we will see nvidia release a 28nm card ?

 

[Quantos]

First you don't compare oveclocked cards to stock. Overall performance of the 7970 is up to 20% over the 580. The card we see in the leaks is a midrange card which is supposed to be 10-15% over the GTX580 at 400$ price point. If you do the math it should be close to a 550$ card. What's not good? Oh, and the max power consumption for the 560Ti is 218W - within what we see in the leak - while the max for 7970 is 270W.

Don't compare the current price of the 7970 with the rumoured price of a yet to be released chip. I understand your point, that the card if release right now would be incredible, but it's moot anyway, as 1. the 7970's price right now is irrelevant 2. we don't know if any of this info is true and 3. AMD has time to do plenty in the meantime.

 

[blackened23]

Don't compare the current price of the 7970 with the rumoured price of a yet to be released chip. I understand your point, that the card if release right now would be incredible, but it's moot anyway, as 1. the 7970's price right now is irrelevant 2. we don't know if any of this info is true and 3. AMD has time to do plenty in the meantime.

This part he's referring to is based off a proven fake slide anyway. There is no 400$ 28nm GTX 580 wondercard appearing any time soon.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

Well, viewed that way, the pricing would never stop to increase as the performance increases with each generation. Sure, 28nm is more expensive at the moment than 40nm, but it's only going to drop. There's always either AMD or Nvidia with a lower performing card that's ready to drop the price a bit to sell a card. Considering that happens all the time, overtime, the prices overall will probably not change that much.

The 7970 is more expensive because relative to the cards currently on the market, its pricing makes sense.

you're thinking too linearly, nVidia was asking for $649 and $399 for the GTX280 and 260 respectively upon their release, tiers and pricing can fluctate quite drastically, this round the evidence is pointing towards higher priced flagships and even higher priced mid range parts, however those midrange parts will also carry a higher than typical performance point.

I linked this graph which is indeed overclocked card vs overclocked, not overclocked vs stock.

Battlefield 3 is also the game that showed the smallest disparity between the 7970 and 580 in all testing done. So what we are seeing now that retail cards are available and reviewers are running overclocked reviews is the huge potential AMD has in Tahiti. The gains in framerate are linear to the gains applied to the core.

That is a huge win for AMD and what you want to see in an architecture. The 7970 is just the tip of the iceberg. They could release a card clocked as you see above, 1260Mhz on the core, and now you have a card that is faster than an overclocked 580 by 50% in Battlefield 3. The game that showed the smallest disparity. Look at another game with these clocks applied:

Here the OCed 7970 is 70% faster than an overclocked 580. Do you see where this is going ? There is huge potential in the 7970. With rumours of more shaders in a future card in tandem with these clocks and you'll see a card twice as fast as an overclocked 580 in certain games.

You're also putting your own personal adjustments on this rumour/leak/whatever to suit your argument. The leak claims the card is going to be $400, if this equates to a mid-range card, meaning 460/560 type card - $400 seems way off point. Although it would make more sense for only being 15% faster than a 580 at that price point, it would not hit that $200-$249 pricepoint that targets what most people are willing to spend on a discreet card.

I don't think this leak can be accurate and if it is, it's bad news. They have to do better than that. This could be the reason for the delays again. With all this talk of adjusting the shader architecture it sounds like there is still work to be done even getting out a functional ready for market chip on 28nm at nvidia. I'm not up to speed on how long it takes from having a market ready design to selling a card in a store, but I thought it was in the 4-6 month range ?

So in May we will see nvidia release a 28nm card ?

and just as there is huge potential for the 7970 with overclocking, whos to say the GK104 won't have just as much potential when overclocked from its stock speeds? or that GK100 won't be that much beastlier?

not only is this all very much hearsay and speculation taken way overboard, its comparing a flagship GPU to a midrange one