California to stop allowing new internal combustion light vehicles in 2035

[MtnMan]

Do you have a lot of hurricanes on your mountain? Or is that why you're a mountain man, you're so fucking scared of storms that are what ifs that you'll shit your pants over what ifs about electric cars?

I never said we get hurricanes in the mountains, but we get swamped with people seeking higher/safer ground because of hurricanes, and virtually none of them could make it here on a 200'ish mile range of an EV. But of course you choose to say I did, so you could respond.

And what if oil poisons your land? What then? What if your mountain gets leveled for coal? What if forest fire comes along and blows up your natural gas house? Or one of your neighbors decides to annihilate their family and blows it up by letting it fill with gas and it blows up your house? What if a tornado sucks up your gasoline and catches fire? What if the world was made of pudding?

Bull fucking shit. They're concerned with the actual hurricane and overall public safety, not people with electric cars

Forest fires are an issue, that's why my property is fire safe'ed. 30' low fuel area around structure, no ladder fuels, etc. Asside form that your 'what if' bull is just that. A bit childish don't you think, next are you going to insult my daddy?

 

[ondma]

Tesla, now there in an unbiased source about the future of electric vehicles, run by a person who never makes rash statements.

 

[ultimatebob]

Did you watch Tesla Battery Day presentation I linked above?

I watched the presentation (remember, I'm a Tesla stockholder now!), but I take any cost projections or delivery estimates that I get from Elon Musk with a big grain of salt. I'm not talking salt shaker sized grains, or even the size salt grains that you put on a hot pretzel. I'm talking the ice melt size salt grains that you put on the sidewalk in winter I saw some cool things in that presentation, but it will probably be five years out until we see most of those advancements in actual products.

I'd love to hop into a time machine, fast-forward to 2035, and see who's going to be right about this debate. My hunch is that Tesla STILL won't be selling any electric car models that cost less than $30,000 in 2035, as they'll be focusing on the models with higher profit margins. In other words, I think that they'll stick with premium tier branding like Apple or BMW.

The mass market electric vehicles that most people actually buy will likely be made by some startup in China that we've never heard of yet, where they can use their cheap labor and general lack of environmental guidelines to crank out cheap cars by the millions.

 

[ponyo]

Tesla, now there in an unbiased source about the future of electric vehicles, run by a person who never makes rash statements.

I know right? Whenever I want to learn about the future of rockets, I listen to my sources who work at McDonald's because they're unbiased and never make rash statements instead of SpaceX. Never mind my sources at McDonald's don't know shit about rocket technology and only know about making hamburgers and fries. SpaceX is biased source since they work on rockets and are leaders in rocket technology. You can't trust anything SpaceX says about rockets. Remember, those guys foolishly thought they could land rockets in the middle of the ocean and reuse it. What fools!

 

[ponyo]

I watched the presentation (remember, I'm a Tesla stockholder now!), but I take any cost projections or delivery estimates that I get from Elon Musk with a big grain of salt. I'm not talking salt shaker sized grains, or even the size salt grains that you put on a hot pretzel. I'm talking the ice melt size salt grains that you put on the sidewalk in winter I saw some cool things in that presentation, but it will probably be five years out until we see most of those advancements in actual products.

I'd love to hop into a time machine, fast-forward to 2035, and see who's going to be right about this debate. My hunch is that Tesla STILL won't be selling any electric car models that cost less than $30,000 in 2035, as they'll be focusing on the models with higher profit margins. In other words, I think that they'll stick with premium tier branding like Apple or BMW.

The mass market electric vehicles that most people actually buy will likely be made by some startup in China that we've never heard of yet, where they can use their cheap labor and general lack of environmental guidelines to crank out cheap cars by the millions.

I don't listen to anything you say because you've been wrong about everything Tesla since I started following them. If I listened to you, I would missed out on everything. It's clear to me you don't know what you're talking about. So you do you, and I'll keep ignoring you.

 

[WelshBloke]

Did you watch Tesla Battery Day presentation I linked above? Prepare to be blown away in couple of years when Tesla incorporates their new battery technology in their auto lineup. In 3-4 years, you should also see the new $25k Tesla car that's going to be the best in class and dominate the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry of the world. I 100% agree with Dave in this video that Elon and Tesla are sandbagging Battery Day improvements timeline. Just as the legacy automakers are finally bring out their EV cars, Tesla is going to blow people away with their updated and new cars made with Battery Day technologies. I'm so freaking excited about the future.

Elon and Tesla are playing 4D chess while you guys are looking at everything in 2D and can't even see 3D let alone 4D future.

🤣

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Departments of Weights and Measures better have a solid draft of universal chargers/replaceable batteries/whatever.

Nobody wants to wade through the ugliness of settling a standard in 2034.

 

[ultimatebob]

I don't listen to anything you say because you've been wrong about everything Tesla since I started following them. If I listened to you, I would missed out on everything. It's clear to me you don't know what you're talking about. So you do you, and I'll keep ignoring you.

I don't know... I called the $355 bottom for the stock back in March, and the recent correction caused by them not getting added to the S&P 500. My projections seem to more on point this year, anyway.

 

[zinfamous]

I don't know... I called the $355 bottom for the stock back in March, and the recent correction caused by them not getting added to the S&P 500. My projections seem to more on point this year, anyway.

"Tesla will be very volatile this year!" ...way to go out on a limb, there.

 

[ultimatebob]

Departments of Weights and Measures better have a solid draft of universal chargers/replaceable batteries/whatever.

Nobody wants to wade through the ugliness of settling a standard in 2034.

A standard that doesn't suck, anyway. "Standardizing" on a glorified 240V dryer socket while offering a vendor proprietary standard that's much faster (I'm looking at you, Tesla) isn't going to cut it for mass market adoption.

 

[Dulanic]

A standard that doesn't suck, anyway. "Standardizing" on a glorified 240V dryer socket while offering a vendor proprietary standard that's much faster (I'm looking at you, Tesla) isn't going to cut it for mass market adoption.

I agree and disagree with this statement. Noone wss successful with EVs until tesla because only tesla built infrastructure for long drives. Why should tesla allow other to use their systems by using a standard that wasnt up to what they wanted?

Id love to see a better standard but can you blame them for not using a standard that isn't up to their needs? CCS is newer and came out after tesla starting building out their network.

Tesla is now part of the CCS alliance so there is hope for long term standardization. There are adapters available anyways thankfully.

 

[Paratus]

Worst case scenario. Not so much for CA, but anywhere along the coast, Texas to the Carolina's. Big mother hurricane, CAT 4 or 5, is coming. Evacuate or die is the word.

But how many can't get more than 200'ish miles away on a charge, if fully charged, then what? People in southern FL need to travel 350 miles just to get out of the state.

When Hurricane Rita came through and all of Houston evacuated it took 14 hours to go 200 hundred miles. Do you know what wasn’t available anywhere within 100 miles of Houston? Gas.

You know what was still on? The electricity.

 

[MtnMan]

When Hurricane Rita came through and all of Houston evacuated it took 14 hours to go 200 hundred miles. Do you know what wasn’t available anywhere within 100 miles of Houston? Gas.

You know what was still on? The electricity.

Typical range on a gas vehicle is 300-400, and if gas can be found, 5 minutes to fill.
Typical range on an EV is 200-250, and if a Level 3 charger can be found, 30 minutes to reach 80%. Level 2 chargers, a couple of hours.

 

[Paratus]

Typical range on a gas vehicle is 300-400, and if gas can be found, 5 minutes to fill.
Typical range on an EV is 200-250, and if a Level 3 charger can be found, 30 minutes to reach 80%. Level 2 chargers, a couple of hours.

I guess you don’t understand. A gas car can go 300-400 miles at 60mph. It cannot go 200 miles (Distance to San Antonio or Dallas) in 14-40 hours (time it took to actually evacuate) unless you had a full 20+ gallon tank.

People literally idled their tanks empty in bumper to bumper traffic.

There was no gas available and no way to get trucks in.

 

[Torn Mind]

It is the one state that can afford to do so.

Although it is more of a redistribution of pollution rather than decrease, imo. Metals cost energy to process.

Decreasing oil dependency does have its benefits politically, such as more leverage against the likes of Saudi Arabia.

 

[Torn Mind]

How do we get rid of the spent batteries?

In a fire.

 

[Torn Mind]

They should start with banning gas powered leaf blowers and lawn mowers. It's ridiculous that whole neighborhood has to smell 2-stroke engine exhaust because you are too lazy to rake your leaves or use electric tools.

Then locales and HOAs should ease up "maintenance standards" first. Of course, once the ticks and mosquitos start crawling everywhere, then people will still maintain their lawn.

Also, mowers are four-stroke these days.

 

[Torn Mind]

There is a Chinese Manufacturer that uses a Replaceable Battery and has a number of Stations setup to make a swap in a few minutes.

With barely any regard for fire safety, most likely.

 

[Torn Mind]

The average transaction price for a new car is around 37K when the vast majority of those sold are ICE cars. Since this doesn't ban the sale of used cars those would still be an option even in 2035. Also as you pointed out prices for used BEVs do drop as well. As far as the battery packs being worn out on "many" Leafs do you have a source for that? Also used low mileage Bolts are available for 20K and under all day long. Its no Model S but it has a 200 mile range.

Why don't you provide the median and mode as well, since bringing up descriptive statistics is not exactly a powerful means of inferring anything.
The arithmetic average is subject to skew in the underlying statistical distribution. Skew cannot be known without knowledge of the median.

The commoner looking to buy a new car for Point A to Point B is starting with the Corolla and its competition. That's $20,000. Those who have climbed a little higher and want something nicer looks at the Camry and its competition. The commerciall/"Pro" homeonwer is looking at a Prius. Those on tight budgets and are single can get by with a little Yaris at 15k.

Plus, the staying power of gas is its superior versatility regarding logistics and greater resiliency in varying climate conditions. Winters and Summers are the equivalent of high brightness in a phone. People are going crank that heat up north of the Mason Dixon and crank the AC down in the toasty areas like Florida and Texas.

The moment the EV has made it is not when isolated 9-5ers working their one job adopts it, but when the EV is suitable for prosumer use, such as Uber, Lyft, and pizza/other food delivery in places demanding rugged build quality like Texas and Minnesota.

 

[Paratus]

It is the one state that can afford to do so.

Although it is more of a redistribution of pollution rather than decrease, imo. Metals cost energy to process.

Decreasing oil dependency does have its benefits politically, such as more leverage against the likes of Saudi Arabia.

So early in my career I spent a few years working around things like this:

You may not be aware but refining oil takes a significant amount energy. It’s surprising I know. It’s even quite polluting and sometimes dangerous.

I was also working on my car the other day and you know what I noticed, it was made of metal. It’s not even a BEV!

Here’s the thing BEVs are more efficient than ICE and quite frankly I could easily power one at home with 100% renewable energy right now. It would be 0 carbon with the exception of the amortized carbon cost of the energy infrastructure. Incidentally that cost continues to decrease as the renewables increase.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Then I'm getting a class A license and a big rig to get groceries. I'm not, just being flippant, I'll get an EV if I move to a place with a charging station in the lot or if I have my own garage. Or sooner if required by law.

 

[tweaker2]

I grew up inhaling 105 octane exhaust and burnt rubber smoke from my elders love of drag racing and dirt circle track contests all while having my eardrums blown out from the fuelies warming up their skins. I have two hotrods from the sixties and the seventies that I completely restored myself and they are my pride and joy.

That being said, my wifey drives a 'lectric powered pony car and both my kids are wanting the same. Do I feel betrayed? Hell no, it's the future come a knock'in on my 'lil Corvett's exhaust pipes that farts sweet smelling avgas fumes.

I'm a relic of a storied past yet I look forward to the changes that improves the air I breathe and the water I drink, but you're gonna have to pry my dead and gone fingers off both of my ride's steering wheels to make me giv'um up to the authorities.

 

[sdifox]

I grew up inhaling 105 octane exhaust and burnt rubber smoke from my elders love of drag racing and dirt circle track contests all while having my eardrums blown out from the fuelies warming up their skins. I have two hotrods from the sixties and the seventies that I completely restored myself and they are my pride and joy.

That being said, my wifey drives a 'lectric powered pony car and both my kids are wanting the same. Do I feel betrayed? Hell no, it's the future come a knock'in on my 'lil Corvett's exhaust pipes that farts sweet smelling avgas fumes.

I'm a relic of a storied past yet I look forward to the changes that improves the air I breathe and the water I drink, but you're gonna have to pry my dead and gone fingers off both of my ride's steering wheels to make me giv'um up to the authorities.

Pretty sure your cars are not considered new.

 

[brycejones]

Why don't you provide the median and mode as well, since bringing up descriptive statistics is not exactly a powerful means of inferring anything.
The arithmetic average is subject to skew in the underlying statistical distribution. Skew cannot be known without knowledge of the median.

The commoner looking to buy a new car for Point A to Point B is starting with the Corolla and its competition. That's $20,000. Those who have climbed a little higher and want something nicer looks at the Camry and its competition. The commerciall/"Pro" homeonwer is looking at a Prius. Those on tight budgets and are single can get by with a little Yaris at 15k.

Plus, the staying power of gas is its superior versatility regarding logistics and greater resiliency in varying climate conditions. Winters and Summers are the equivalent of high brightness in a phone. People are going crank that heat up north of the Mason Dixon and crank the AC down in the toasty areas like Florida and Texas.

The moment the EV has made it is not when isolated 9-5ers working their one job adopts it, but when the EV is suitable for prosumer use, such as Uber, Lyft, and pizza/other food delivery in places demanding rugged build quality like Texas and Minnesota.

You are more than welcome to find that data and post it here.

I have already pointed out how it is possible to get a car with a useful range today (200 miles plus) for $20k or less. Which was the specific concern of the poster I was responding to. I would bet that range would even be sufficient for several of your ‘pro’ use cases like Uber eats in a dense urban environment.

Btw the Yaris was axed after 2020. Unless Toyota comes up with another lower priced car the least expensive car will be the $20k base Carolla.

 

[tweaker2]

Pretty sure your cars are not considered new.

Jus' expressing myself about the attitude I share with so many other hotrod enthusiasts sans the technicalities of it all. Being "grandfathered" in (yeh, saying that makes me feel just that much older heh) was assumed on my part as a matter of course, just not a part of the point I was trying to make tongue in cheek wise.

Thanks for calling that out though.