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Blu-ray versus HD-DVD (old)
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LegendKiller
Lifer
I was browsing the HD-A2 Amazon thread over at BigWallet and noticed a friend from Anandtech was going to buy an HD-A2, had already purchased the 360 addon but decided to cancel for the Toshiba player instead. Now, I went back and searched this subforum for some of his messages and one of the major ones asked how Toshiba was going to get people to switch.
How did they get you to switch, my friend? Do you finally admit that, as you said "rosy colored HD DVD glasses" are now, not just glasses, but reality?
I won't name you, I'll let you man up and admit that HD DVD is not dead, but thriving and will continue to do so as their multi-pronged attack sinks in.
Will I hear nothing but crickets? I'd really, sincerely, like to know what changed your mind.
How did they get you to switch, my friend? Do you finally admit that, as you said "rosy colored HD DVD glasses" are now, not just glasses, but reality?
I won't name you, I'll let you man up and admit that HD DVD is not dead, but thriving and will continue to do so as their multi-pronged attack sinks in.
Will I hear nothing but crickets? I'd really, sincerely, like to know what changed your mind.
Multi-pronged attack? Sell players below cost thus alienating all other CE vendors then banking on Transformers to carry them through Christmas?
Ok, but there's 5M PS3's out there, with Sony putting 10M in the channel by Q1 2008 vs about 1M HD-DVD players world-wide. Not to mention you don't know what CEDIA will bring. You think an array of CE manufactures and the far, far majority of studios on the Blu side are not going to strike back hard?
It's cute that the Paramount put some wind in your sails but hell, you're setting yourself up for a major letdown if you think it's going to matter at all in the long run. In 18 months it will be all over. Sony, MGM, Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate will not have budged, Sony will have ~20M PS3's out there, BD 2.0 players will be under $200, and HD will be reaching critical mass.
HD-DVD not dead, but barely holding on by the prayers of its fanboys.
LegendKiller
Lifer
How are they alienating other CE Vendors? So you have Panasonic, Sony, and Samsung making BD players. Wow, great. What about the Denon or other players?
I think you'll see the tide turn quickly once the 3rd Gen HD DVD players come out, with SoC, reduced costs...etc. As far as selling "below cost", as I have asked before, please provide proof of that.
It doesn't matter if there are 5m PS3s out there, how many are actually SELLING DISCS to a major extent? From the ratios, not very many at all. You really think Sony will have 20M players out there, equating to 4x the current amount, in 18mo when they can hardly scrape to together 160k in monthly sales? Please, leave that trash aside.
As far as BD 2.0, what about all of the other half-assed standards around?
I can't wait for CEDIA and Q4, by January I am going to quote you on that and you're going to be eating an aweful lot of crow pie and yes, I will revel in it.
Denon is making a player next year. Also LG, Lite-On, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sharp and Sony. HD-DVD has Toshiba and the half-ass Chinese brigade. Way to maintain quality in consumer electronics.
Even if only 20% of PS3 users are buying discs, that number is going to scale with the number of PS3s sold. 360's may sell more, but it does no good for HD-DVD sales other than the ~200k who bought the add-on.
There's BD 1.0, 1.1, and 2.0. Hardly half-assed, and the features are just putting in to shut down any perceived advantage Toshiba thinks they have.
I am already reveling in your false sense of confidence. It's like an army of five soldiers trying to storm a fortified castle holding 10,000 men.
Blu-Ray still controls 60% of the studios (HD-DVD only has 24% and even if Warner switched it would be less than 40% LOL). Blu-Ray hardware outsells HD-DVD hardware 10:1. Blu-Ray software outsells HD-DVD software 2:1. You think a bunch of shoddy Chinese players and Transformers is going to change much? Especially if the BDA decides it's time to turn the screws?
spacejamz
Lifer
I have no problem admitting that I went neutral...when I woke up yesterday, I had no intentions of going neutral, but after seeing the deal for the add-on w/ 9 movies (4 instant and 5 via mail in rebate) for $179 shipped, I pulled the trigger...
However, I still favor blu ray over HD DVD and will always buy the blu version if there is a choice...
Troy released on HD DVD Sept. 12, 2006
on schedule for BD release Sept. 18, 2007
Polar Express released on HD DVD Oct. 10, 2006
on schedule for BD release Oct. 30, 2007
V for Vendetta released on HD DVD Oct. 31, 2006
Canada's 300 included an insert showing V as a coming soon...
I don't believe these release dates are coincidence. And we've seen a top man, pro-HD DVD, at Warner step down last week. Also take note if Warner remains neutral, of the differences in Return to the House on Haunted Hill when it's released on both formats. Not a title that will interest many, but it will certainly be of note if Warner goes ahead with the release.
Good to hear.
The only truth in the format war is that we individually have no power to decide what format the studios are going to support. My 1 player and 20 movies has persuaded exactly zero studios to adjust their release strategies. A second player and 10-15 more movies again is going to persuade exactly zero studios to adjust their release strategies. I have not switched to owning both yet because the content, for me, is not there yet. I wasn't planning to buy Transformers or Shrek even if Paramount remained neutral, I passed on these movies when they were in the theaters. I don't know how this happened either, but I haven't even seen the Bourne Supremacy yet. But I tell ya, when Paramount releases The Godfather, I'm buying a player for it. But I'm also going to stick to buying Pirates 3, Ratatouille, and Die hard this holiday season. Content above format.
But to continue to hear the persistent cheerleading by the same set of people, it's old and it's very sad. It's just a plastic disc.
Please you 1 player and 20 movies is multiplied by millions when it comes to the market. The idea we the consumer have no sway in how the market will go is silly. Right now we have two sides actively trying to win this war. That means there will be options for consumers and the consumers will ultimately deal the last hand for either format.
Here is the deal, I think it is very apparent Paramount decided banking on a console to win the format war is silly. Stand alone players will win this hands down and the people who purchase said players have much higher attachment rates than console buyers. Your rosy picture may or may not come true. But I think you are discounting the stand alone player advantage HD-DVD has. With a several million unit head start with the PS3, Blu Ray can only muster 65-35 wins in movie sales. It doesnt take a genius to see what little stand alone players HD-DVD has pushed are selling much more movies per unit than the PS3.
If HD-DVD can push 1 million units world wide by the end of the year that will be a huge win for HD-DVD as it should start moving those movie sales ratios in their direction.
The curve ball in all of this is Blu Ray standalone players. If the manufacturers decide to price compete with HD-DVD players then we could see a stagnant situation arise, in which case Blu Ray can survive this situation for the next 18 months. But I dont really see that happening in the forseeable future.
spacejamz
Lifer
guess everyone has rose (or blu) colored glasses they want to look through...the truth of the matter is that no one will ever really know the true impact the PS3 has in this format war...only a certain percentage (which we can only estimate) are actually hooked up to an HDTV, and only a certain percentage (again which we can only guess at) are being used for blu ray playback...both sides spin these guesses to favor their formats but I seriously doubt we will ever know the truth...
why will standalones determine this format war? what does a standalone do that a PS3 or a 360 w/add-on cannot do? are console owners not suppposed buy blu ray/HD DVD disks?? that is absurd since the PS3 effect is what has caused blu ray to gain a 2:1 advantage in sales.
Because stand alones will be priced cheaper and move more with a larger % of the population. Eventually they will simply flood the market and those buyers will be purchasing at higher rates. Consoles are still considered a gaming platform. Sure people can use them as movie players but the attachment rates clearly show people dont at nearly the rate they do with a dedicated device.
I can say right now the impact the PS3 has is volume enough to win the monthly movie sales against a competitior who has a fraction of the userbase. In the long term I expect it to be much like the PS2's effect on DVD sales. Neglible when all is said and done.
CorCentral
Banned
I agree about the PS3 mostly being hooked up to crappy tv's---Even if a family has an HD tv, it's going to be in the living room. Most kids 11-18 will have their PS3 hooked up to a crappy 19"-25" non flat, $150./$200 tube tv in their bedroom. This is also true for many Xbox 360 owners with the hd-dvd add on.
I've yet to see any of my friend's kids (about 5 families) have their PS3/360 hooked up in the living room to the good tv....... It's alway's in the kid's bedroom.
Which is indicative of the larger problem -- HDTV is nowhere near critical mass, therefore the format war has *years* to work itself out. I think HDTV adoption is 30% in the US. Now take from that 30% all of the people who are buying HDTVs not for HD, but to have big, flat screens. Then there are those with SD cable boxes (and not even realizing it) and those with their components hooked up with composite (we all met these types). I wouldn't doubt it if the percentage of US homes with true HD is not in the 10 - 15% range. We are at least two years away from it mattering. Plenty of time for the format war to work itself out.
0roo0roo
No Lifer
ps3 has early sales advantage yea but it doesn't translate to wider format success. battling over niche is just that. it takes cheap players to win. consoles don't win anything, gamers are notoriously selectively cheap and most non gamers would never buy one to play films. hddvd sales are more impressive since more are probably from stand alone players than bluray though.
hddvd might break through because its probably easier to pirate. like it or not piracy esp in asia and such countries drives player sales, high volume sales=low prices, low prices=even wider adoption+sales of discs pirated and legit. hddvd can be stamped at regular factories with minor mods or so they claim. bluray is a mess that way, locked down much harder. i don't see it succeeding.
as for alienating companies.. ps3 does that pretty well. if a ps3 is better than most more expensive bluray players that cost as much or more,they are making a pretty big disincentive to bother. sure xbox360 has a drive, but its not built in, so its got the console barrier+addon barrier so theres less other hddvd makers need to worry about.
hddvd might break through because its probably easier to pirate. like it or not piracy esp in asia and such countries drives player sales, high volume sales=low prices, low prices=even wider adoption+sales of discs pirated and legit. hddvd can be stamped at regular factories with minor mods or so they claim. bluray is a mess that way, locked down much harder. i don't see it succeeding.
as for alienating companies.. ps3 does that pretty well. if a ps3 is better than most more expensive bluray players that cost as much or more,they are making a pretty big disincentive to bother. sure xbox360 has a drive, but its not built in, so its got the console barrier+addon barrier so theres less other hddvd makers need to worry about.
Eug
Lifer
The official US MSRP is $199.
AUG. 28 | Sub-$200 Chinese-manufactured HD DVD players are slated to be released by Venturer Electronics by the fourth quarter.
Venturer's SHD7000 will be priced at $199, according to a company representative, which would make it the cheapest stand-alone HD DVD player available today.
So, it is likely we'll see this player (under multiple branding) priced at a range from $149.99 to $199, depending on the store and the various sales. I suspect that Wal-Mart will be the first to have it at $149.
That is going to be very difficult for the Blu-ray guys to match, even with Funai on board. I'm guessing we'll see the Funai announced at CEDIA next week... and it will be interesting what price point it will have, considering that Blu-ray tech is inherently more difficult to manufacture and therefore more expensive.
Mind you, if it's still a Profile 1.0 player, then it's essentially a non-starter. It really needs to be Profile 1.1 to have a significant impact.
P.S. I'm predicting that Warner is staying neutral for the time being.
Another studio maybe turning dual format:
http://www.dvdrama.com/news.php?21769
Don't know what this movie is, looks very strange to say the least. But Studio Canal was the big HD DVD international exclusive studio.
http://www.dvdrama.com/news.php?21769
Don't know what this movie is, looks very strange to say the least. But Studio Canal was the big HD DVD international exclusive studio.
If we are truly voting with our purchases, then 51% of the disc sales would have made Paramount switch to Blu-ray exclusive. I've always supported an end to the format war, but the Paramount move made it clear that there are forces in the industry that I have no control over. Then it made me ask the question, what is my purpose in buying hi def movies? Am I more interested in content, or am I more interested in who receives the royalty check? I don't think it's a surprise that I chose content. I am a consumer, I can buy anything that is out there, I can choose not to buy anything that is out there. I will be choosing to support hi def movies as a whole, above supporting who's name is printed on the disc.
The paramount move could be attributed to anything. But I have read they attributed it to the upcomming low cost HD-DVD players they expect to flood the market this holiday season. Their job is to forcast where they think the market is heading. They apparently believe with low cost standalone players the market is moving in HD-DVDs favor.
It isnt like there isnt Blu Ray studios out there. So, yes, the hundreds of thousands if not millions of people who purchase a HiDef player and movies this holiday season will sway the market.
LegendKiller
Lifer
Same website claimed this before, turned out to be nothing. I do not think Studio Canal ever announced exclusivity.
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