Blu-Ray versus HD-DVD (old)

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G

gobucks

Golden Member
Oct 22, 2004
1,166
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Rio, by "win", I mean the movie studios coming to the agreement that one format is the way of the future, and giving up on the other format. In the long run, the market will not support 2 incompatible formats - it didn't work back in the VCR v. Betamax days, and it won't work now. It's completely redundant, confusing/expensive to the buyer, and adds cost to the movie studios without adding any additional value. I simply predict that the war will end rather quickly once the mass market adopts it, either when HDTV is pretty standard, or when it reaches price parity with current technology. If the former, i predict Blu-ray will win because its extra features give it a slight edge; if the latter, I predict HD-DVD will win because it is much more likely to hit DVD price parity much sooner than Blu-ray.

And I'm not saying that HD-DVD needs to have dirt cheap players and media to win. HD-DVD is based largely on standard DVD, and from what I've heard it isn't all that difficult to convert existing production of DVDs to HD-DVD which should lower average production costs. The players are also less complex. Do you really think the Blu-ray camp would refuse to release a player for under $400 for any reason other than that they simply can't do it? HD-DVD players, on the other hand, are heading south of $200, and I'm sure toshiba is still making money. As for the discs, forgive me for not crying the movie studios a river on cost - the manufacturing cost of discs is pretty insignificant for DVDs, and I highly doubt it costs them $7 more to create each HD-DVD, which is about the price premium they are charging.

And mlm, I realize that savvy consumers can find deals on their HD movies if they know where to look. However, I am suggesting that the formats need to appeal to the mass market. The average joe goes to Best Buy when he wants to buy a movie. Look online - new DVD releases are around $18, while HD titles range from $25-35. The average guy without an HDTV might be willing to shell out an extra $2 or so to get the movie in HD if he has any interest in buying an HDTV in the future, but he sure as hell isn't going to pay a 50% feature he can't presently use.
 
MrChad

MrChad

Lifer
Aug 22, 2001
13,507
3
81
I think it's distinctly possible that both will end up as niche market formats and neither one will supplant DVD. One needs only to look back on the "failure" of DVD Audio and SACD to see why better quality does not necessarily yield a greater market share. The portability and ease of use of MP3 won out over the higher fidelity formats. Digital distribution may be the direction for movie content as well.
 
M

mcturkey

Member
Oct 2, 2006
133
0
71
<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: MrChad
I think it's distinctly possible that both will end up as niche market formats and neither one will supplant DVD. One needs only to look back on the "failure" of DVD Audio and SACD to see why better quality does not necessarily yield a greater market share. The portability and ease of use of MP3 won out over the higher fidelity formats. Digital distribution may be the direction for movie content as well.</end quote></div>

Digital Distribution... one of the greatest absurdities ever put forth. While it works for audio, since most people can't tell the difference between 128kbps MP3 and CD (or find the difference too insignificant to care), video is a whole other story. Most people can clearly see the difference between DVD and HD/BR on an HD screen. Even if we go with 720P, a full-length movie is still going to be, what, 10-15GB without any extras? When's the last time you downloaded a file that size? How long did it take? Now consider what happens when you start to build a library of movies. Even at 480P DVD resolution, my current library would be.. (does the math) upwards of 3-4TB. So despite that storage prices have dropped considerably, I'd still be looking at about $800 worth of hard drive storage after the price of downloading those movies. Now, the time required to download one 480P feature-length movie would be (presuming maximum sustained transfer rates of 800KB/s) roughly 112 minutes.

Let's say there's a bunch of really hot movies releasing this Tuesday, and digital distribution is going to account for 100,000 sales. Let's also say that those sales will be in 480P format, so 5.4GB per film is probably a reasonable average. The servers and internet connections handling the transmission of all these films will need to collectively support 540TB of data in a single day. Even staggered over the whole 24 hours of Tuesday, and with multiple locations throughout the country, this is not a small amount of bandwidth. And we're only talking about 100,000 total units at 480P resolution, with no extras.

The only figures I could find for DVD sales were a bit dated (2005), showing roughly 1.5 billion units for the year. If all of those were digital distribution, again with no extras and in 480P resolution, that would be 8.1EB (exabytes) of data over the year, or an average of 22PB (petabytes) each day, or 255GB/s. Even with some incredible new compression techniques, it's still a gigantic amount of data. If we bump the resolution to 720P, we will be roughly doubling the bandwidth requirements.

I often hear that games will go to digital distribution in the next generation. If games continue to squeeze onto single-sided dual-layered DVDs, it's still going to be an incredible amount of bandwidth. But I think we all know that 9GB is barely going to be enough for current-gen games on the 360, and by the end of the lifecycle, it will probably be common for games to need two or more discs. Resistance: Fall of Man uses something like 25GB on the BR disc. If Halo 3 squeezes onto a single dual-layer DVD, it would be roughly 9GB. Multiply this by the roughly 2 million people who are likely to pick it up within the first 24 hours, and you have 18PB of data for one game.

The current internet infrastructure at the consumer-grade ISP level does not in any way support the bandwidth needed for digital distribution of major video games or movies in significant numbers. With content pre-loading and large numbers of distributed datacenters, the bandwidth needs can be a little bit more manageable (Steam for example). But even then, big releases will bog down everything - not just for the downloads, but everyone else using the same ISPs as the main connections become saturated.

Digital distribution is a wonderful idea, and some day it might just happen. But not without enormous investment in greater bandwidth at every level, and a massive reduction in hard drive prices. But chances are, by the time that catches up to games and movies, optical media will be ready to take the next big leap forward with data density. And then we start all over.


Er... that got long-winded. Sorry.
 
G

gobucks

Golden Member
Oct 22, 2004
1,166
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0
mcturkey, i agree with your general idea, since most people simply don't have enough internet bandwidth to download HD content at the present time. However, I think you're very much overestimating the size of video files. If you are using antiquated MPEG-2, yeah it would take a ton of space. However, new formats like VC-1 and AVC are way more efficient. DVD quality (480p) only needs 2mbps maximum with these codecs, which yields around a 1.5GB file. As for 720p, I currently encode my HD-DVD rips into WMV with high quality 5.1 sound. At 8Mbps, a 2 hour movie is around 8GB, but that is probably overkill - I just encode it that way because it fits on a single DVD DL. I have some AVC 720p at 4Mbps and it still looks phenomenal at less that 4GB per movie.

Since Apple uses quicktime (an AVC codec) and already sells a lot of videos through itunes, so i wouldn't be at all surprised to see them offer DVD quality videos around 1-1.5GB. Maybe down the road they might even offer 720p content around 4GB or so. In fact, HD-DVD/Blu-ray quality 1080p content doesn't usually take up more than 15GB, even for long movies like goodfellas or the departed.

One thing I do like about the digital distribution idea is that it allows the prospect of upgrading your movies as new technology comes out, similarly to how they currently allow you to upgrade your DRM'd music to DRM free for an extra few cents. Imagine how nice it would be if you could take your 480p content and upgrade it to HD for a few bucks per movie down the road when you buy an HDTV... then maybe to even better content (1440p, 1900p, etc). I think a lot more people would upgrade their videos in that scenario rather than re-buying a hard copy of the movies in their collection every time there is a better format.
 
yukichigai

yukichigai

Diamond Member
Apr 23, 2003
6,404
0
76
I was just in Costco today; they had a Toshiba HD-DVD player out for $370. I looked at it and thought, "wow, that's almost maybe kinda sorta affordable, in a cosmic sense." Helluva lot better than Blu-Ray, anyway.

Now I dunno who's going to win the format war here, but I can tell you who I want to win: HD DVD. Why? Lesse....

1) Less restrictions. HD DVD has no region coding, fewer layers of DRM, and isn't as anal about HDCP compliance. Given that I have plenty of HD-compatible screens and precisely 0 of them support HDCP, I find this to my advantage.
2) Backwards compatibility. HD DVD doesn't just support 480i and up; if you look at the spec sheet it supports an entire swath of resolutions starting with 352x240. This includes the SVCD resolution (480x480), a few extras (540x480) and some lovely half-steps in the high def areas (1280x1080 and 1440x1080). All of the lower resolutions support VC-1, AVC and MPEG-2 at 4:3 or 16:9 AR, which is nice and space-saving, and the low-resolution support means that if you have some sub-480i content you want to compile onto an HD DVD or 3x DVD (more on that later) you don't have to reencode it first.
3) 3x DVD. This is what really did it for me, as it lowers the cost barrier to using the technology. Part of the HD DVD player spec is mandatory support for a format called "3x DVD", which is basically just an HD DVD authored on a normal DVD disc. (Dual Layer or Single Layer) While there isn't much consumer authoring support for any HD DVD formats at the moment, once there is this means it will be possible for you to burn, say, 4 720p res AVC/H.264 encodes of your favorite TV show ('bout 1.1 gig an ep, which is decent) onto a DVDR and then throw it in the ol' HD DVD player.


Now as for which one will win, I don't know. Technically Betamax was a superior format to VHS, but VHS won all the same. Unfortunately it really comes down to which alliance makes the best power plays. Of course, keep in mind that HD DVD is backed by Microsoft; if anybody's going to pull a power play out of their ass, I'd bet on the side backed by the Evil Empire.
 
Schadenfroh

Schadenfroh

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2003
38,416
4
0
Originally posted by: yukichigai
Of course, keep in mind that HD DVD is backed by Microsoft; if anybody's going to pull a power play out of their ass, I'd bet on the side backed by the Evil Empire.
Click to expand...

BluRay is backed by:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association
* Apple Inc.
* Buena Vista Home Entertainment
* Dell
* Hewlett Packard
* Hitachi
* LG Electronics
* Mitsubishi Electric
* Panasonic (Matsushita Electric)
* Pioneer Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics
* Samsung Electronics
* Sharp Corporation
* Sony Corporation
* Sun Microsystems
* TDK Corporation
* Thomson
* Twentieth Century Fox
* Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group
* Warner Home Video Inc.
Click to expand...
 
yukichigai

yukichigai

Diamond Member
Apr 23, 2003
6,404
0
76
<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: Schadenfroh

BluRay is backed by:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association

* Apple Inc.
* Buena Vista Home Entertainment
* Dell
* Hewlett Packard
* Hitachi
* LG Electronics
* Mitsubishi Electric
* Panasonic (Matsushita Electric)
* Pioneer Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics
* Samsung Electronics
* Sharp Corporation
* Sony Corporation
* Sun Microsystems
* TDK Corporation
* Thomson
* Twentieth Century Fox
* Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group
* Warner Home Video Inc.
</end quote></div>
Yeah, that's a fairly large group, I'll give you that, but there's an equally large group backing HD DVD. (Unfortunately Wikipedia doesn't have a handy list for HD DVD like it does for Blu Ray) I did gleam "Toshiba, NEC, Sanyo, Microsoft, RCA, Kenwood, Intel, and Memory-Tech Corporation" from the article, along with damn near half the companies on that Blu Ray list. (Fence-straddlers, bah!)

Basically though, when you boil it down you're looking at a bunch of "smaller" companies on either side and one or two monoliths among them, none of which are really direct competitors with each other. It's going to be an interesting war.
 
Shawn

Shawn

Lifer
Apr 20, 2003
32,236
53
91
Samsung is definitely on the fence. They have already stated that they will make HD-DVD only players if there is enough demand.
 
D

dwell

pics?
Oct 9, 1999
5,185
2
0
Originally posted by: yukichigai
Now as for which one will win, I don't know. Technically Betamax was a superior format to VHS, but VHS won all the same. Unfortunately it really comes down to which alliance makes the best power plays. Of course, keep in mind that HD DVD is backed by Microsoft; if anybody's going to pull a power play out of their ass, I'd bet on the side backed by the Evil Empire.
Click to expand...

Microsoft does not back anyone. They stand to make a pile of money on licensing fees for VC1 if either format wins, as both formats support VC1.

The Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive was a Hail Mary play to get a bullet point on a list of features to stack against the PS3. While it was meant to disrupt the PS3's advantages, I really don't think Microsoft is going to lose much sleep if it becomes a paperweight.
 
M

mlm

Senior member
Feb 19, 2006
933
0
0
Originally posted by: Chris
The Xbox 360 HD-DVD drive was a Hail Mary play to get a bullet point on a list of features to stack against the PS3. While it was meant to disrupt the PS3's advantages, I really don't think Microsoft is going to lose much sleep if it becomes a paperweight.
Click to expand...

I believe they've gone on record as saying they'll focus their efforts on digital distribution if HD-DVD doesn't work out.
 
Arkaign

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,379
126
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
This is going to prove very interesting...is that the death knell of BDA I hear?


http://online.wsj.com/article/...OLLECTION=wsjie/6month
Click to expand...

Lol, I guess you missed this part in that article :

"The market for next-generation DVDs of either stripe is tiny so far, though. Through June, Blu-ray had sold about 1.8 million discs, compared with 1.3 million for HD DVD, according to consultancy Adams Media Research. A top title such as Warner Bros.' "The Departed," which was out in both formats, shipped 85,000 copies in Blu-ray and 60,000 in HD DVD, compared with 7.7 million for regular DVDs.

These days, Blu-ray discs are outselling HD DVDs at a rate of about two to one, says Tom Adams, president at Adams Media."
 
L

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Arkaign
<div class="FTQUOTE"><begin quote>Originally posted by: LegendKiller
This is going to prove very interesting...is that the death knell of BDA I hear?


http://online.wsj.com/article/...OLLECTION=wsjie/6month</end quote></div>

Lol, I guess you missed this part in that article :

"The market for next-generation DVDs of either stripe is tiny so far, though. Through June, Blu-ray had sold about 1.8 million discs, compared with 1.3 million for HD DVD, according to consultancy Adams Media Research. A top title such as Warner Bros.' "The Departed," which was out in both formats, shipped 85,000 copies in Blu-ray and 60,000 in HD DVD, compared with 7.7 million for regular DVDs.

These days, Blu-ray discs are outselling HD DVDs at a rate of about two to one, says Tom Adams, president at Adams Media."
Click to expand...

Wow, 2:1, BFD when they have a 10:1 install base.
 
R

Rio Rebel

Administrator Emeritus<br>Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,194
0
0
Jesus Christ and the CEO of Toshiba could hold a press conference announcing HD-DVD is giving up, and some fanboys would still spin that as a positive. It has gotten hilarious.
 
spacejamz

spacejamz

Lifer
Mar 31, 2003
10,997
1,745
126
the nielsen sales numbers for today came out...

this week, blu ray had no exclusive releases (black snake moan and Hustle and Flow were released on both formats) while Universal release a bunch of catalog titles on HD DVD only.

blu ray won again...this time 65% to 35%...

the funny thing is that back in March when blu ray was winning, the HD DVD supporters all claimed it was because HD DVD was not releasing any titles but blu ray was. Well, now that the tables are reversed, we still have the same results...

And then considering that 50K people bought brand new HD DVD players since late May because of a $100 price drop, it does not appear that they are buying any new movies in volume since blu ray has won by every week since the sale by over a 60% to 40% margin.

Supposedly, HD DVD has a higher attach rate (which was in the neighborhood of 4 movies per player), so that should be around 200K movies that should have been sold since May.

Guess all of these HD DVD supporters must be renting their movies then...

How will HD DVD survive if HD DVD owners aren't buying as many movies as the blu ray owners???
 
B

Blayze

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2000
6,152
0
0
Originally posted by: spacejamz
Originally posted by: mlm
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Wow, 2:1, BFD when they have a 10:1 install base.
Click to expand...

Try telling Toshiba that.
Click to expand...

Guess he didn't get the memo that Toshiba has 70% of the market....
Click to expand...

Toshiba has the standalone market for HD, but Blu-ray currently has the advantage overall (counting the PS3). I'm sure it will switch back and forth for awhile. This war is far from over, unless something major happens.
 
spacejamz

spacejamz

Lifer
Mar 31, 2003
10,997
1,745
126
Originally posted by: Blayze
Originally posted by: spacejamz
Originally posted by: mlm
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Wow, 2:1, BFD when they have a 10:1 install base.
Click to expand...

Try telling Toshiba that.
Click to expand...

Guess he didn't get the memo that Toshiba has 70% of the market....
Click to expand...

Toshiba has the standalone market for HD, but Blu-ray currently has the advantage overall (counting the PS3). I'm sure it will switch back and forth for awhile. This war is far from over, unless something major happens.
Click to expand...

??? There are over 1.6 million PS3 in North America (before the $100 price drop next week) and less than 200K HD DVD players??? How will that switch back and forth???

Toshiba counts the PS3 when it determines it attach rate, but does not count the PS3 when determines total players sold. Last time I checked, the PS3 doesn't play a blu ray movie any differently than a standalone...Toshiba conveniently counts the PS3 when it serves its purpose...
 
spacejamz

spacejamz

Lifer
Mar 31, 2003
10,997
1,745
126
Originally posted by: mlm
Originally posted by: Schadenfroh
For those of you who do not visit Hot Deals, PS3 (BluRay Player) and 5 BluRay Moviews for $500 @ CC

http://forums.anandtech.com/me...=2069829&enterthread=y
Click to expand...

Universal price drop
Click to expand...


Until Saturday, the Circuit City Deal includes a 2nd PS3 brand wireless axis controller.

If you don't need the controller, amazon has free shipping with no tax for most people...
 
C

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
Originally posted by: spacejamz
Until Saturday, the Circuit City Deal includes a 2nd PS3 brand wireless axis controller.

If you don't need the controller, amazon has free shipping with no tax for most people...
Click to expand...
Actually, Amazon's deal is the 60gb PS3 plus BD remote plus a the movie Memento for $499.
 
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