Bitcoin sellers remorse.... how many people are kicking themselves for cashing out>?

[darkewaffle]

I get the impression that you are just making stuff up as you post. Have you actually bought anything from a merchant that deals in bitcoins?

Do you have any idea how much merchants pay in credit card fees, paypal fees, charge-backs, and everything else that bitcoin fixes? Accepting bitcoins saves them 3-6% directly, and additional money on top of that from not having to deal with charge-backs.

>Merchants want a currency that's stable, not hyperinflating.

Wrong, they couldn't possibly care less. Every major bitcoin merchant I have seen has automated algorithms that pull the current USD value of bitcoin and adjust prices automatically in real time. Value fluctuation of BTC is meaningless for them, as they don't even have to think about it. As for their customers, they just see the prices get lower and lower every day, which is not exactly a bad problem to have.

As a customer I just love the option to just buy something and pay with bitcoins, instead of trusting every random website with credit card info, or worse still giving a cut of the profit to paypal. No registering needed, no credit card info or verification codes. Just enter my name and address and make a payment using bitcoin, simple as can be.

https://www.bitcoinstore.com/ <- it's the real deal.

Of course I haven't.

I'm not saying their net business will decrease or that they'll lose money because they accept bitcoins. I'm saying that relative to their amount of bitcoin transactions a month ago, their bitcoin transactions now have probably decreased. Fluctuations this wild are bad for business because it discourages spending because people are constantly questioning the true value of what they're getting vs what they're giving. Do you really want to spend a bitcoin on X when tomorrow a bitcoin might be worth 3 Xes? Or should you buy now because a week from now a bitcoin might only be worth .25 X?

Of course a merchant wants a stable currency. Do you really think post WW2 Germany was a good time to be selling stuff? And why do you think USD is accepted almost worldwide? Well for one it's ubiquitous, but just as importantly it's because it's perceived value tends to shift very moderately and very slowly. Further, when Zimbabwe's currency value collapsed a few years ago, why did the USD become the de-facto measure of value? Stability and ubiquity. Lack of wild fluctuations (over the long term at least, everything spikes and plummets occasionally) is practically a tenant of a successful currency.

 

[Doppel]

With that stance you waive the right to ever come in here and say "I told you so".

Just sayin'

Well I did say I expect it will be worth less than $220 a month from now, though heck today it's already crashed massively by any standard. Pure bubble, speculative gambling scheme.

Have we already seen this? How many websites let you buy/sell stuff in a proprietary currency already, such as "credits"? Xbox live comes to mind. You don't buy things in USD/EU/GBP/etc, you first have to buy "Microsoft Points" or whatever they are called, THEN buy the game or media. I've had a couple bucks worth of MS points sitting in my xbox live account for years, for all I know MS doubled the exchange rate with USD, and cut the value of my deposit in half. (I should probably go check that...)

MS points are backed by Microsoft, but even then nobody is going to put much more in them than they need for their next purchase, so they are similar in risk to a gift certificate. Some risk, but not enough money to care.

What if the trust of an "open group of processors" is replaced with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, or Samsung? In the not so distant future, the "backing" of one of these (or a group of them) global organizations could be more trustworthy than any govt.

It might have value. Truly I do think the absolute greatest shortcoming of bitcoins are their very tiny ceiling and the inevitable deflationary nature of anything denominated in bitcoin.

Lack of wild fluctuations (over the long term at least, everything spikes and plummets occasionally) is practically a tenant of a successful currency.

This is a fact. Of course merchants care about the stability of what they receive for a good. The fact they may use a real-time exchange to set a price is only of no concern if they use that same real-time exchange to move into a real currency immediately after the order. A merchant that sold an item for $250 earlier today got one bitcoin. That single bitcoin is now worth half that!, at least on an exchange like btc-e.com. Imagine buying a car for $30k and by the time the dealer cashes your check the real value of that check is now $15k because they took a long lunch before going to the bank.

 

[MaxPayne63]

What if the trust of an "open group of processors" is replaced with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, or Samsung? In the not so distant future, the "backing" of one of these (or a group of them) global organizations could be more trustworthy than any govt.

Interesting stuff.

These guys aren't paid in bitcoins.

Edit: BTC -50% in seven hours. Quoting myself from a few pages back:

I wonder how difficult it would be for an entity that has a vested interest in continuing the current monetary system (say, a bankrupt government reliant on money printing to fund its operations, or a central bank that controls the printing press) to run up the price of bitcoins then pull the rug out from under all the muppets when bitcoins get enough media attention.

Look out below!

 

[SunnyD]

Cause nobody saw it coming.

Give someone a market, and they will find a way to manipulate it.

The conspiracy theorist in me says that this was the governments' doing - they hate bitcoins. What better way to obliterate them then by directly manipulating them themselves, and causing distrust in the product.

 

[irishScott]

Cause nobody saw it coming.

Give someone a market, and they will find a way to manipulate it.

The conspiracy theorist in me says that this was the governments' doing - they hate bitcoins. What better way to obliterate them then by directly manipulating them themselves, and causing distrust in the product.

What distrust? It's a brand new freaking currency. I agree with one of the quotes in the article:

"This is just the market venting some pressure after these huge gains," wrote anotherblog. "To be honest I'm glad it's happening now. If it recovers, it will demonstrate resilience in the market and give confidence to future buyers and current holders that they don't need to panic sell, reduce the chances of a crash in the future."

If I hear about more than one merchant dropping bitcoin, I'll get concerned. Thus far there hasn't been a single one.

 

[SunnyD]

What distrust? It's a brand new freaking currency. I agree with one of the quotes in the article:

Individuals that had x amount of DOLLARS locked up in BTC now have that number of DOLLARS cut in half. Remember, to the majority of the world, even the value of a BTC is still measured in DOLLARS. You take away half the value of someones monetary wealth, that will given them distrust in that form of currency commodity.

 

[Train]

Individuals that had x amount of DOLLARS locked up in BTC now have that number of DOLLARS cut in half. Remember, to the majority of the world, even the value of a BTC is still measured in DOLLARS. You take away half the value of someones monetary wealth, that will given them distrust in that form of currency commodity.

Only if they bought at the peak.

People who bought in January are still up 15x

 

[irishScott]

Individuals that had x amount of DOLLARS locked up in BTC now have that number of DOLLARS cut in half. Remember, to the majority of the world, even the value of a BTC is still measured in DOLLARS. You take away half the value of someones monetary wealth, that will given them distrust in that form of currency commodity.

Granted, but all that means to companies is that they need to convert bitcoins to dollars on the fly, or at least promptly, which should be doable. As for private individuals, stupid is as stupid does. Bitcoins were never intended to fund people's 401ks, and anyone who thought they could was jumping the shark big time.

 

[Train]

MS points are backed by Microsoft

lol, ya don't say?

 

[cheezy321]

Good quote on twitter about the whole drop today:

'We can laugh at Bitcoin but real guys, in real basements, are losing real fake money right now.'

 

[Doppel]

Good quote on twitter about the whole drop today:

'We can laugh at Bitcoin but real guys, in real basements, are losing real fake money right now.'

Pretty much that, except for suckers who turned real money into fake money and then lost it ()

 

[Phokus]

Libertarians are so god damned retarded. This is exactly why we have central banking and fiat money. Who in their right mind would use something so volatile for money? I wouldn't be surprised if hedge funds had a hand in taking some of you to the cleaners.

 

[Train]

I wouldn't be surprised if hedge funds had a hand in taking some of you to the cleaners.

I would. Any hedge fund manager messing with bitcoins is probably gonna get his ass fired.

 

[ussfletcher]

Libertarians are so god damned retarded. This is exactly why we have central banking and fiat money. Who in their right mind would use something so volatile for money? I wouldn't be surprised if hedge funds had a hand in taking some of you to the cleaners.

This has absolutely nothing to do with libertarianism or decentralized banking. This has everything to do with what Bitcoin is and how it works. The current 'bubble' is mostly based on the extremely limited supply of Bitcoins causing the value to skyrocket as people dumped Cyprian assets into the currency.

The same thing could happen to any currency, regulated or not, if you had a proportionally similar amount of money to dump. This is not dissimilar to the fluctuations in the stock market.

 

[MrColin]

The price bubble is bursting at the moment, comming down hard from $250/BTC to about half that. It will probably stabilize somewhere near the mining cost and climb again.

http://arstechnica.com/business/201...losing-nearly-half-of-its-value-in-six-hours/

 

[ultimatebob]

What distrust? It's a brand new freaking currency. I agree with one of the quotes in the article:



If I hear about more than one merchant dropping bitcoin, I'll get concerned. Thus far there hasn't been a single one.

There weren't many reputable merchants accepting it to begin with, for reasons we've already discussed several times...

 

[Miramonti]

Libertarians are so god damned retarded. This is exactly why we have central banking and fiat money. Who in their right mind would use something so volatile for money? I wouldn't be surprised if hedge funds had a hand in taking some of you to the cleaners.

Here is the chart from today:

It wasn't a straight dumping, but a timed accelerated selloff. This is a classic footprint of an execution algorithm based on the movement over time, ie wall street/professional driven. That would be very rare imo to occur in that way and not be professional.

 

[Doppel]

Might not be rare for bitcoin though as it is so new. I suspect most sold for the reason anybody sells in a sell-off, which is panic. And that panic encourages more selling, panicking, and sell-off accelerates.

 

[Train]

This is a classic footprint of an execution algorithm based on the movement over time, ie wall street/professional driven. That would be very rare imo to occur in that way and not be professional.

This line is comical.

 

[LegendKiller]

Here is the chart from today:

It wasn't a straight dumping, but a timed accelerated selloff. This is a classic footprint of an execution algorithm based on the movement over time, ie wall street/professional driven. That would be very rare imo to occur in that way and not be professional.

Do you have proof of that or are you just pulling stuff out of your ass and throwing on a wall hoping it sticks?

Further do you have proof that the runup in price is due to cypriots, or was it just another tulip bulb scheme?

Bitcoins are like gold in one way, they both depend on the greater fool theory for 100% of their value. There's nothing else there.

 

[Miramonti]

Do you have proof of that or are you just pulling stuff out of your ass and throwing on a wall hoping it sticks?

Further do you have proof that the runup in price is due to cypriots, or was it just another tulip bulb scheme?

Bitcoins are like gold in one way, they both depend on the greater fool theory for 100% of their value. There's nothing else there.

My focus each day, for years, is making trades by analyzing movement over time. Acceleration is a great barometer of direction as well as reversals, and it's usually very well orchestrated. Tracking it is generally a lot more involved than just looking at raw price movement tho. That's where my opinion about it comes from.

 

[Mixolydian]

Libertarians are so god damned retarded.

This is true.

 

[LegendKiller]

My focus each day, for years, is making trades by analyzing movement over time. Acceleration is a great barometer of direction as well as reversals. It's generally a lot more involved than just looking at raw price movement tho. That's where my opinion about it comes from.

And I work for one of the larger asset managers in the country and cover an entire sector for research. Who gives a crap? Acceleration into a trade that is being plowed into by many people just because it is new and exciting and bubbly has less to do with algorithm trading and more to do with geeks frothing at their newfound influence in a virtual currency that nobody gives a flying fuck through a rolling donut about. I don't need to follow trades to know that.

If you had any evidence you'd have somebody like the guys ZH goes to. Yet, for some reason ZH even admits this is all human trading. They are the first ones to get into the "IT'S THE ALGOS" froth and they won't even go there.

 

[Miramonti]

And I work for one of the larger asset managers in the country and cover an entire sector for research. Who gives a crap? Acceleration into a trade that is being plowed into by many people just because it is new and exciting and bubbly has less to do with algorithm trading and more to do with geeks frothing at their newfound influence in a virtual currency that nobody gives a flying fuck through a rolling donut about. I don't need to follow trades to know that.

If you had any evidence you'd have somebody like the guys ZH goes to. Yet, for some reason ZH even admits this is all human trading. They are the first ones to get into the "IT'S THE ALGOS" froth and they won't even go there.

Raw trading, especially from non pro's, is a lot noisier than that imo, referencing the 'pre-panic' time frames. And I doubt you'll see many pro's admitting they are in this. The best ones generally stfu and don't draw attention to themselves. Things that attract pros are wide spreads, volatility, and unfortunately to some, ability to jerk things around. I stand by my opinion that this volatility is pro driven.

 

[Train]

Raw trading, especially from non pro's, is a lot noisier than that imo, referencing the 'pre-panic' time frames. And I doubt you'll see many pro's admitting they are in this. The best ones generally stfu and don't draw attention to themselves. Things that attract pros are wide spreads, volatility, and unfortunately to some, ability to jerk things around. I stand by my opinion that this volatility is pro driven.

Even if it is "pros" at work here, the whole "classic footprint" statement has no basis in reality.

You realize that sellers have to have buyers right? Creating a "classic footprint" in a price graph would require a conspiracy of both buyers and sellers, which would make no sense at all in this case.