Bitcoin sellers remorse.... how many people are kicking themselves for cashing out>?

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irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
How much hardware do you have crunching?

Just a lone Radeon HD 6970 that also powers my monitor. In mining terms that's ~320 megaHashes per second, and only when I'm not playing a game or watching a movie. How much longer that kind of power is going to remain even mildly profitable is questionable though.

There are companies out there making ASICS designed specifically for bitcoin that can get you gigahashes for relatively cheap. They've been slow as fuck to ship so far, but slowly but surely they're getting out there. At some point the difficulty to crunch each new block (and thus mine bitcoins) will shoot up. How much remains to be seen. I might have to buy their $274 model just to keep my current rate.

https://products.butterflylabs.com/
 
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Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
It is inevitable it will crash and inevitable it will never be a real currency accepted on any large scale level. Inevitable. The math is a certainty. Nobody can predict when it will crash.

Chiropteran the fact it is worth more now than when the fellow you mock criticized it is immaterial. It is sacrosanct that spending ine's retirement on lotto tickets is an idiotic idea. And yet, if many people do it and a rare idiot has it pay off, is his good fortune any indication the idea is in fact a good one?

The run up in bitcoin in the last 30 days is a marvelous pyramid. Of course I wish I had bought earlier, just as I wish I had selected winning tickets in a lotto.

Greater Fool Theory is why some are buying bitcoins now. That isn't stupid, but it is risky--it is a gamble. The greater fools are those who are buying it because they believe in it.

It is massively deflationary. Nobody has ever argued how it isn't and this alone is enough to irreparably disqualify it as a serious currency.
 

dighn

Lifer
Aug 12, 2001
22,820
4
81
this is nuts. if you don't think there's a BTC correction/crash coming you are insane. nothing has changed fundamentally about bitcoins. there are just more people who think they've found a get-rich-quick scheme; a classic recipe for a bubble. as for preservation of your wealth, the last place you'd want to put your money is something with this kind of volatility (just check its history). this is like the digital version of gold, but with more volatility. you'd be far better off buying a share of the market.
 

Puppies04

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2011
5,909
17
76
When will the bubble burst? Some are predicting $400 per btc.

Anyone predicting $400 per bit coin will cash out at $200. It is a bubble and it will burst. I was so close to setting up a mining rig and even looked at buying a few 100 coins wholesale at about $5 each but decided against it. Kicking myself so hard right now lol.
 

darkewaffle

Diamond Member
Oct 7, 2005
8,152
1
81
Remember this post, June 1st 2011:


1 bitcoin was worth $12 on that day. If you bought $5000 worth of bitcoins that day, they would be worth $97,916 today.

You called it wrong then, and I bet you are calling it wrong again today ;)

You're conveniently skipping over the nearly ~24 months in between that it spent at a mere fraction of that $12 price lol. It did crash and people did get out and it stayed down for quite some time. Whether it's got any sort of sustainability to it or whether it will simply crash again remains to be seen, but I sure know what I think will happen.

If I could short bitcoins, I would. I think the Cyprus incident is interesting in that it kind of serves to highlight bitcoin's merits, but again it's just more people treating what's supposed to be a currency as a commodity. This kind of wild volatility really just serves to push it further away from it's original idea.

Whoever is on the wrong side of things will be the fool. Many people in Cyprus had their savings wiped out, they stayed in, so they aren't the fools, yet the BTC buyers are the fools? Explain that.

You're missing the point. Because there's still so relatively few people who have any idea what a bitcoin is, there's a great wide pool of people who will be enticed into the idea of this meteoric rise and want to go along for the ride. I think it would be a mistake to assume that even a moderate portion of bitcoin buyers are people looking to "escape the system" or "gain security". I think almost everyone just wants to get in, make their money, and get out; they're counting on there being more fools and in this digital age where information flows so freely, I think they'll actually reach a lot of them to fuel the fire.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,570
12,215
126
www.anyf.ca
this is nuts. if you don't think there's a BTC correction/crash coming you are insane. nothing has changed fundamentally about bitcoins. there are just more people who think they've found a get-rich-quick scheme; a classic recipe for a bubble. as for preservation of your wealth, the last place you'd want to put your money is something with this kind of volatility (just check its history). this is like the digital version of gold, but with more volatility. you'd be far better off buying a share of the market.

Like anything I'm sure it will, but if people want to ride the gravy train, why not. I've been thinking about it but not sure I really want to invest in the hardware this late in the game. Maybe I'll wait till the crash happens and the hardware will be cheaper and I can buy it hoping it goes up again.
 

dighn

Lifer
Aug 12, 2001
22,820
4
81
Like anything I'm sure it will, but if people want to ride the gravy train, why not. I've been thinking about it but not sure I really want to invest in the hardware this late in the game. Maybe I'll wait till the crash happens and the hardware will be cheaper and I can buy it hoping it goes up again.

if you know what you are getting yourself into, that's cool. to be honest I'm tempted too but this doesn't look like a good time to buy (to me).
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
It is inevitable it will crash and inevitable it will never be a real currency accepted on any large scale level. Inevitable. The math is a certainty. Nobody can predict when it will crash.

Chiropteran the fact it is worth more now than when the fellow you mock criticized it is immaterial. It is sacrosanct that spending ine's retirement on lotto tickets is an idiotic idea. And yet, if many people do it and a rare idiot has it pay off, is his good fortune any indication the idea is in fact a good one?

The run up in bitcoin in the last 30 days is a marvelous pyramid. Of course I wish I had bought earlier, just as I wish I had selected winning tickets in a lotto.

Greater Fool Theory is why some are buying bitcoins now. That isn't stupid, but it is risky--it is a gamble. The greater fools are those who are buying it because they believe in it.

It is massively deflationary. Nobody has ever argued how it isn't and this alone is enough to irreparably disqualify it as a serious currency.

The math is a certainty? What math? Sure it'll crash, but it's a brand new currency, of course it's going to be unstable initially. Funny how I don't hear about any of the merchants using bitcoin dropping support for it over this.

Define "serious currency". For me "serious currency" is "can I use it to buy what I want?" No one's saying bitcoins are going to become the world's reserve currency or anything, but that was never their intended purpose.

There's room and serious demand for bitcoins. The simple fact that it's succeeded as well as it has so far is evidence enough of that.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Just like the stock market, nobody can predict where it's going.

Yeah, but this is like watching .com stocks in 1999, where they would double in a month for no good reason. We all know what happened to those!

Anyway, enjoy your currency bubble guys... I just cashed out my winnings for a nice flashlight at that survival store that takes bitcoin :) It was one of the few reputable businesses that I could find that actually takes them, which kinda proves my point.
 
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irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
Just like the stock market, nobody can predict where it's going.

And just like the stock market, it will survive its great depressions. A lot of the commentary I'm reading here and elsewhere reminds of the "ZOMG REPUBLICANS ARE DOOMED 4EVAR!" or "ZOMG DEMOCRATS ARE DOOMED 4EVAR!" talk that comes after a presidential election.
 

momeNt

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2011
9,297
352
126
It is inevitable it will crash and inevitable it will never be a real currency accepted on any large scale level. Inevitable. The math is a certainty. Nobody can predict when it will crash.

Chiropteran the fact it is worth more now than when the fellow you mock criticized it is immaterial. It is sacrosanct that spending ine's retirement on lotto tickets is an idiotic idea. And yet, if many people do it and a rare idiot has it pay off, is his good fortune any indication the idea is in fact a good one?

The run up in bitcoin in the last 30 days is a marvelous pyramid. Of course I wish I had bought earlier, just as I wish I had selected winning tickets in a lotto.

Greater Fool Theory is why some are buying bitcoins now. That isn't stupid, but it is risky--it is a gamble. The greater fools are those who are buying it because they believe in it.

It is massively deflationary. Nobody has ever argued how it isn't and this alone is enough to irreparably disqualify it as a serious currency.

Deflation isn't a bad thing. It's a bad thing when markets are used to inflation, as debtors become crushed in deflation, but when the market is used to deflation, interest rates on loans become negative as the currency is supposed to be worth more as the loan matures as opposed to less.

There is technically no problem with BTC being deflationary, increased productivity of the base that uses the money results in a higher value per unit. Therefore the expected value can be pretty accurately forecasted for people to make decisions.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
Deflation isn't a bad thing. It's a bad thing when markets are used to inflation, as debtors become crushed in deflation, but when the market is used to deflation, interest rates on loans become negative as the currency is supposed to be worth more as the loan matures as opposed to less.

There is technically no problem with BTC being deflationary, increased productivity of the base that uses the money results in a higher value per unit. Therefore the expected value can be pretty accurately forecasted for people to make decisions.
If interest rates on loans are negative, why on Earth would anyone lend?

Deflation is a bad thing, unless you have a large amount of savings and a mattress.

It may also be self correcting though, as lack of finance will crash the economy, reduce productivity and send real prices massively higher.
 

Pr0d1gy

Diamond Member
Jan 30, 2005
7,775
0
76
Anyone else see this as an attack on Bitcoin by the Banking masters such as the Fed/IMF/etc? A bid to get rid of any potential competition and maintain their nearly worldwide monopoly....
 

Chiropteran

Diamond Member
Nov 14, 2003
9,811
110
106
So many responses, so little time. Going to address the biggest points.

It is inevitable it will crash and inevitable it will never be a real currency accepted on any large scale level. Inevitable. The math is a certainty. Nobody can predict when it will crash.

Love these sorts of responses. You are 100% sure it's going to crash, but you have no idea when. In other words, it could continue to rise for another 500 years, as long as it crashes eventually you win. It's a convenient way to act like you are making a bold prediction without ever being proven wrong.

Chiropteran the fact it is worth more now than when the fellow you mock criticized it is immaterial. It is sacrosanct that spending ine's retirement on lotto tickets is an idiotic idea. And yet, if many people do it and a rare idiot has it pay off, is his good fortune any indication the idea is in fact a good one?

It is massively deflationary. Nobody has ever argued how it isn't and this alone is enough to irreparably disqualify it as a serious currency.

I don't get your points, they contradict each other. Yes, bitcoins are deflationary. Are you trying to say investing in an inflationary currency is smarter? Remind me to never get any financial advice from you. Also, it's very different from the lotto. The lotto is rigged, it's hugely in favor of the house. As far as bitcoin, I am about $5000 ahead on what I have already cashed out and plenty more if I was to cash out the rest. I simply CAN NOT LOSE, even if bitcoin drops to 0 tomorrow I am still $5000 ahead. As far as I am concerned it's a a safer investment than cash, which inflates every year and loses value, or nearly any stock which is either junk or overpriced.

Whether or not you like bitcoin, I think that everyone can agree that this currency has gone up too far and too fast. This sucker is going to crash at some point, and it's gonna crash HARD.

Think about it for a second... Hyperinflation like this might be good for people holding the currency, but it isn't good for people for people who want to make transactions with it! No established business would be crazy enough to start taking purchases with a currency that can fluctuate in price as much as 25% in a day.

Are you going to buy a $15 Martini at a bar with bitcoin, knowing that the currency to pay for it might be worth $25 the next week?? NO! Likewise, are you going to accept $500 worth of bitcoin for a computer, knowing that currency might be worth only $200 by the time the computer ships? Hell no!

It's time to get out while the getting is good.

It's a false argument. If you buy that martini wish cash, and bitcoin triples in value the next day, you STILL lost out on a possibility to triple your money, because you could have bought BTC instead of a martini.

Couple things-

1> Bitcoin is vastly undervalued. Supply and demand alone will push it much higher. The only way to get to that "much higher" point is some hyper-deflation (not inflation) for a few years.

2> People buy things knowing they will be cheaper in the future all the time. Computers, video cards, cell phones, popular new clothing styles, etc all lose a tremendous amount of value in the first year and quickly lose value, yet people buy them anyway instead of saving money forever.

You're conveniently skipping over the nearly ~24 months in between that it spent at a mere fraction of that $12 price lol. It did crash and people did get out and it stayed down for quite some time.

This right here is the hilarious thing. Even if you bought in at the worst possible time, and bought bitcoins for $31.90 just before the crash, you would still see a 700% return on your investment after two years. You call that a crash? It was a brief dip and then bitcoin corrected itself back to where it should be :)
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Just remember that at the top of every market bubble, there is always a group of people who believe that "This time is different!" and that the old rules of supply and demand no longer apply.

Those are the people who lost their shirts during the tech stock crash of 2000, and lost their homes in real estate crash in 2008.

I'd rather not be a victim of the great bitcoin crash of 2013, so I'm going to sit the rest of this one out.

This story is going to make for a great episode of "American Greed" on CNBC a few years from now, but I'd rather not be the one explaining the aftermath to the camera.
 

silverpig

Lifer
Jul 29, 2001
27,709
11
81
Just a lone Radeon HD 6970 that also powers my monitor. In mining terms that's ~320 megaHashes per second, and only when I'm not playing a game or watching a movie. How much longer that kind of power is going to remain even mildly profitable is questionable though.

There are companies out there making ASICS designed specifically for bitcoin that can get you gigahashes for relatively cheap. They've been slow as fuck to ship so far, but slowly but surely they're getting out there. At some point the difficulty to crunch each new block (and thus mine bitcoins) will shoot up. How much remains to be seen. I might have to buy their $274 model just to keep my current rate.

https://products.butterflylabs.com/

Are you in a pool or anything?

I've got a radeon 6870 that I run with -f 60 on deepbit and I am sitting at 0.12 BTC in my share right now. I haven't been running it very steadily though.

The $274 box is attractive, but the 4 month wait is not.
 
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gorobei

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2007
3,687
1,015
136
Just remember that at the top of every market bubble, there is always a group of people who believe that "This time is different!" and that the old rules of supply and demand no longer apply.

Those are the people who lost their shirts during the tech stock crash of 2000, and lost their homes in real estate crash in 2008.

I'd rather not be a victim of the great bitcoin crash of 2013, so I'm going to sit the rest of this one out.

This story is going to make for a great episode of "American Greed" on CNBC a few years from now, but I'd rather not be the one explaining the aftermath to the camera.

i spent ~$60 in electricity mining back in 2011(already had the cards). i have several thousands of dollars worth in btc now. it was an experiment for me, and i stopped when i had the full data on my power costs.

as long as you arent going into debt to bitmine, its a harmless hobby. the risk-reward was minimal enough 2 years ago.

with the cypress/eu austerity measures and the nebulous asic mining situation, the volatility and unpredictability of bitcoin speculation is not anything anyone should be putting real money into. but if you have a spare computer/amd card or two, its a nice way to heat the house in winter.
 

Rinaun

Golden Member
Dec 30, 2005
1,195
1
81
Anyone buying bitcoins now is asking to lose money. The time to cash out is now.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,458
987
126
Buying large amounts of coins is extremely risky right now/going forward.

Mining for coins isn't risky and will make money until BTC drops down to were it was prior to all the runs ups.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
Are you in a pool or anything?

I've got a radeon 6870 that I run with -f 60 on deepbit and I am sitting at 0.12 BTC in my share right now. I haven't been running it very steadily though.

The $274 box is attractive, but the 4 month wait is not.

Yeah, slush's pool. I figure there's no way I'm going to find an entire block given my limited power. On average I get ~0.03/day
 
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