bitcoin - investors

[ultimatebob]

Yeah, it looks like this pump and dump is going to be even more impressive than the last one!

 

[ponyo]

Yeah, it looks like this pump and dump is going to be even more impressive than the last one!

Just think. If you only held your bitcoins and not mess around with all the shitcoins. You always want to own the gorilla and not all the stupid monkeys that play with poo. Or else you're just going to be covered in shit and not have any bananas to eat.

 

[Train]

BTC per year :

2011 +1500%
2012 +299%
2013 +5400%
2014 -43%
2015 +37%
2016 +130%
2017 +1516%
2018 -80%
2019 +80%
2020 +306%
2021 +10% in less than 2 days

 

[ultimatebob]

BTC per year :

2011 +1500%
2012 +299%
2013 +5400%
2014 -43%
2015 +37%
2016 +130%
2017 +1516%
2018 -80%
2019 +80%
2020 +306%
2021 +10% in less than 2 days

I see a pattern there... do you? Huge price increases, followed by a swift crash. The question isn't IF it's going to happen, but WHEN and how much.

This isn't like investing in the stock market... the Fed isn't going to bail your ass out when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Yeah, it looks like this pump and dump is going to be even more impressive than the last one!

My serious suggestion so you're still not hating when Bitcoin is $100K+: IF we have a "mini-crash" coming (say we revisit $20K soon, because this hasn't really ran far enough to warrant one of those 80% crashes) and stock markets, etc all still look strong: put a decent chunk into GBTC and ETHE after that happens. And I don't mean "joke" or "play" 1-2% of your portfolio where it won't matter. I'm talking at least 5-10%. If that scenario plays out we could see something like ETHE's premium drop back below 50% at which point it would make for a great long-term investment as the market cap of Ethereum will approach $500B and eventually $1T. Any coming dip or crash will the final one before the institutions fully take over. People have just no idea how much will be built to run on top of Ethereum. No companies will not make their own chains because it's far too time and resource consuming to make and secure it. They will however make tokens and build L2 solutions on top of Ethereum, which of course will require... Ethereum. Ethereum 2.0 will be able to support 100,000 tx/sec. Bitcoin on the other hand is turning into the ultimate debt-free (unlike cash) and non-government and/or central-bank paper manipulated asset (unlike gold and silver).

Of course the black swan may be a 1933 FDR move, but the consequences of that may be worse than just letting crypto create a few in a new elite asset class. If governments try to ban Bitcoin, it is truly end-game for fiat. At least right now crypto is absorbing inflation that we'd start seeing in other asset classes.

 

[ponyo]

I see a pattern there... do you? Huge price increases, followed by a swift crash. The question isn't IF it's going to happen, but WHEN and how much.

This isn't like investing in the stock market... the Fed isn't going to bail your ass out when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

You claim you see the pattern yet in actuality you don't. Open your eyes and really look. Really open your eyes.

Look at the yearly prices again. See how the cycle is 3 years of gains before big correction, followed by 3 years of gains, followed by another correction. But notice the gain in the 3rd year of every cycle. It dwarfs the gains of the previous 2 years. It's super cycle of gain in each of the 3rd year. If history repeats, we could see MASSIVE gains again with bitcoin as this is the 3rd year in the cycle.

No prediction on my end but remove your bias. Seriously. You're just hurting yourself.

 

[Train]

I see a pattern there... do you? Huge price increases, followed by a swift crash. The question isn't IF it's going to happen, but WHEN and how much.

This isn't like investing in the stock market... the Fed isn't going to bail your ass out when this house of cards comes tumbling down.

I see huge price increases followed by more huge price increases, then corrections, followed by more price increases.

The "pattern" would be 3 positive years for every one negative, and the negative one isn't due till 2022. That is assuming the pattern holds, which would be silly.

My cost basis is $7450 and I've taken profit several times over the years so am not the least bit worried.

 

[ultimatebob]

I wonder why the whales waited until 5 AM on January 4th for dump some of their holdings:



Maybe they were trying to avoid paying the capital gains taxes in 2020?

 

[ultimatebob]

Just think. If you only held your bitcoins and not mess around with all the shitcoins. You always want to own the gorilla and not all the stupid monkeys that play with poo. Or else you're just going to be covered in shit and not have any bananas to eat.

I'm not saying that buying Bitcoin is a bad investment decision. If you're comfortable with the risk, have at it. I'm just saying that buying Bitcoin NOW is a bad investment decision unless you're just day-trading the volatility. Its value is going to crash again soon, and I wouldn't want to be holding the bag when it does.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

It's a reverse harvesting tax strategy that lowers you downside risk: If you start the year off by claiming massive gains, you've got a lot of "free leverage" to play with before you have to pay Uncle Sam. Because if you lose all of those gains, you're back to square one and don't owe any taxes. The downside to it is resetting your cost basis and time period for long-term taxable gains. But usually the intent is to secure/divest and/or day-trade. For example, I sold off $50K worth of relatively quick gains in GBTC and proceeded then to lose $10K within an hour on ETHE - I got greedy hoping for a quick premium play and got stopped out. That's the other downside to having that casino money - you start doing stupid things. Gains are gains but it still feels bad. "Buy and do nothing" - always the best strategy in crypto.

I'm going to wait for the market to cool off before I make my next move: either a significant correction back to $20-22K sets up a great entry for GBTC and ETHE, or this is the correction and I will likely divest that profit into other investments since I clearly suck at the short-term game. My real asset (my core positions) won't start being offloaded until Bitcoin passes a market cap of $1T, and I afford to wait however long that may be.

 

[ponyo]

I'm not saying that buying Bitcoin is a bad investment decision. If you're comfortable with the risk, have at it. I'm just saying that buying Bitcoin NOW is a bad investment decision unless you're just day-trading the volatility. Its value is going to crash again soon, and I wouldn't want to be holding the bag when it does.

No one knows short-term. You've been wrong about bitcoin pretty much forever yet you keep trying to time the top. Maybe one day you will be right. Broken clock is right twice a day. But if the correction happens at $100k and it drops back down to $40k, were you really right?

Day trading the volatility is generally terrible idea. You can't have conviction when you day trade. And without conviction, you'll get shaken out of any large trade. And if you only trade small, that's just lot of stress and work to tread water and possibly make/lose small money. So why bother?

 

[ultimatebob]

No one knows short-term. You've been wrong about bitcoin pretty much forever yet you keep trying to time the top. Maybe one day you will be right. Broken clock is right twice a day. But if the correction happens at $100k and it drops back down to $40k, were you really right?

Day trading the volatility is generally terrible idea. You can't have conviction when you day trade. And without conviction, you'll get shaken out of any large trade. And if you only trade small, that's just lot of stress and work to tread water and possibly make/lose small money. So why bother?

If you look back in the post history in the big Bitcoin thread, you''ll see that I saw the price correction at the end of 2017 coming. Sure, I wasn't expecting the price to ever go back up, but at least I got the price crash part right

I even made a separate contest out of it:

So... where will Bitcoin be at the end of 2018?

Since there seem to be a bunch of Bitcoin fans and Bitcoin haters in this forum, I figured that I'd put up this question just to see what comes up. The "winner" at the end of 2018 gets bragging rights, assuming that they posted their response before 2018 starts and they didn't edit it at any...

forums.anandtech.com

I guess that it's too late for a 2021 contest. Bummer.

 

[Train]

If you look back in the post history, you''ll see that I saw the price correction at the end of 2017 coming

And when did you predict it would go up?

 

[njdevilsfan87]

I mean, you posted that in December 2017 when it was clear Bitcoin was in massive bubble territory. If you had posted that in 2016 it would have been a little bit more impressive:

1. $1350 -> $850 (37% correction)
2. $3000 -> $1800 (40% correction)
3. $5000 -> $3000 (40% correction)
4. $8000 -> $5500 (31% correction)
5. $11300 -> $9000 (20% correction)
6. $16600 -> $12700 (23% correction)
7. $20K peak

Here's what Bitcoin early in that cycle looked like:


Here's what Bitcoin looks like recently:


The timeframes and magnitudes of price movement are almost identical.

 

[brianmanahan]

btc and eth are both still chugging along

i keep thinking about getting out but maybe i'll stay along for the ride for another day or two

 

[ultimatebob]

btc and eth are both still chugging along

i keep thinking about getting out but maybe i'll stay along for the ride for another day or two

Where do you think the breaking point will be for this rally? $40K?

Amusingly, even the shitcoins are going up in value now. Dogecoin is worth more than a penny each at the moment

 

[brianmanahan]

Where do you think the breaking point will be for this rally? $40K?

Amusingly, even the shitcoins are going up in value now. Dogecoin is worth more than a penny each at the moment

my guess was 50$k but i might just bail at 40$k haha

 

[njdevilsfan87]

I think Ethereum is the one to watch and may be the one that determines where things end up in the short-term. The common theme with every cycle (and I've been watching them since the first $266 BTC bubble in 2013) is that you will all sit in disbelief wondering how prices could get so high. We are not there yet. Bitcoin to $50K or even $100K+ is "easy to explain" with institutional money rolling in. The only thing that's throwing everyone off right now is how soon it is happening, and that could be what puts a ceiling "below expectations" on the price in the short-term.

Getting back to Ethereum - this is the one to watch to maybe get a feel for where this cycle may end up. Remember that it almost flipped Bitcoin's market cap back in 2017, and although it never did it's the only crypto asset to have gotten that close. Currently it sits at about ~20% of Bitcoin's market cap. If there is a move in play for it to gain any sort of significant ground on Bitcoin again like it did in 2017, then it will be the one that "feels like" it goes to stupid levels after it breaches ATH (~$1.4K). For example, Ethereum could move to ~$3K while Bitcoin only goes a little bit higher to ~$45K. Even in that scenario, you'd have Ethereum sitting at just over 40% of Bitcoin's market cap which is still far less significant relative to what happened in 2017. And if you adjust these numbers just a bit more in Ethereum's favor (say place Bitcoin at ~$60K and allow Ethereum to explode to 50% of Bitcoin's market cap) you end up closer to ~$5K. These are the kinds of prices that are in unbelievable territory for me. Because while I expect Ethereum to get there eventually, I don't think anyone expected it to get there this year even prior to COVID. And here's another thing - prices get to those unbelievable levels: and then they keep going. They keep blowing your mind, the insanity, the chaos, and then it all comes to a sudden end - until the next time.

None of this means this will run much higher. We could be done at $40K, and I think if we are then I think 2021 will end up as a consolidation year between $13K-$25K that sets up the super-cycle to peak sometime between 2022-2025 (estimates that I and many others initially had).

This is just my own personal impression of the market today. I've seen $266 BTC in Q2 2013, $1200 BTC in Q4 2013, and $20K BTC in Q4 2017. It doesn't feel like any of those... yet. The euphoria and greed is definitely there, but the complete and total madness and chaos is not. From an outside spectator it may already be there. But for those who have been involved with crypto for years or truly understand what institutional investment means and where this is all heading barring government interventions, today's prices don't really matter.

 

[Train]

Not sure if this is an official high, but Coinbase Pro is showing a peak of $40,250 at 1 PM

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Well maybe I spoke too soon because not long after $40K broke, Coinbase hasn't worked since and it looks like the price took a little dump. There's some of the insanity/chaos I'm looking for! (exchanges no longer working) One nice thing about the evolution of crypto will the slow demise of centralized exchanged points like this.

Either way my target is still "Ethereum insanity" and not Bitcoin insanity. In case it's not obvious what I hold more of at this point.

 

[Train]

lol, buckle up, 40k to 36k back to 38k. Where it goes next nobody knows

 

[brianmanahan]

i tried to log in to sell at 40$k but coinbase has been dead for hours LOL

 

[Train]

i tried to log in to sell at 40$k but coinbase has been dead for hours LOL

please tell me you at least transferred everything to Coinbase pro.

 

[ultimatebob]

lol, buckle up, 40k to 36k back to 38k. Where it goes next nobody knows

Just think. If you only held your bitcoins and not mess around with all the shitcoins. You always want to own the gorilla and not all the stupid monkeys that play with poo. Or else you're just going to be covered in shit and not have any bananas to eat.

Yeah... Once upon a time, I had about 0.8 Bitcoin back when it was worth about $75 each. I bought a tactical flashlight with it. It was a pretty cool flashlight... it even had a night vision mode.

That flashlight was never worth $32,000 to me, though

 

[brianmanahan]

please tell me you at least transferred everything to Coinbase pro.

i have no idea how

but i didn't sell either