Bad news for Build Back Better legislation from Manchin:

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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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First of all, it's not 330 Trillion dollars, as he said ever ADULT.. you are including all the kids. There is roughly 75 Million kids you are adding in there. So it would be about 255 trillion dollars, which would be less than 1% of the current national debt. That is before calculating in all the social programs that would take a severe cost reduction, if not completely eliminated if they did what he suggests. So he is correct, it wouldn't make a dent to our national debt. The problem however with his suggestion, is everyone would have money, and the majority of adults have no financial sense, and they would blow it in the first year. Which would send inflation to the moon. We aren't talking about the current 6 to 7% inflation, we would be talking 50% to 100%+ inflation.

He offered up the 330 million adults number so I went with it.

The US national debt is about 29 trillion, not the 25500+ trillion you suggest it is, so this would expand it by a factor of 9-12 depending on how many people would benefit from the million bucks.
 
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NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
3,605
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He offered up the 330 million adults number so I went with it.

The US national debt is about 29 trillion, not the 25500+ trillion you suggest it is, so this would expand it by a factor of 9-12 depending on how many people would benefit from the million bucks.
My apologies, You are correct, I looked at the actual debt amount before I even had my coffee after getting out of bed. But you are still looking at it wrong.. Debt is created when expenses out weight income. Paying out 255 Trillion at first looks like a huge expense and you are assuming would translate to debt, while ignoring what it would do to the income side of the equation, as well as, what expenses it would replace, not add too.
 
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manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,363
4,115
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My apologies, You are correct, I looked at the actual debt amount before I even had my coffee after getting out of bed. But you are still looking at it wrong.. Debt is created when expenses out weight income. Paying out 255 Trillion at first looks like a huge expense and you are assuming would translate to debt, while ignoring what it would do to the income side of the equation, as well as, what expenses it would replace, not add too.
How would it not add to the public debt? Where does this mystical $255T come from if not the Treasury Dept's printing presses? If you're suggesting this $255T would eliminate all other federal expenditures that aren't military or mandatory spending, that's a reduction of maybe $3T spending at best? How is it even considered "income" if the government is magically giving its residents the equivalent of 12 years of GDP, an amount of debt that functionally could never be repaid?

I don't think rommelrommel ignored anything. What you just wrote sounds a lot like voodoo economics to be frank.

But this all started because sportage claimed there are 330 adults in the U.S.
 
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NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
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How would it not add to the public debt? Where does this mystical $255T come from if not the Treasury Dept's printing presses? If you're suggesting this $255T would eliminate all other federal expenditures that aren't military or mandatory spending, that's a reduction of maybe $3T spending at best? How is it even considered "income" if the government is magically giving its residents the equivalent of 12 years of GDP, an amount of debt that functionally could never be repaid?

I don't think rommelrommel ignored anything. What you just wrote sounds a lot like voodoo economics to be frank.

But this all started because sportage claimed there are 330 adults in the U.S.
Where did I say it would eliminate all other federal expenditures? IT would eliminate most of them however, as most of them are tied to social programs and such. But that is not what I said at all. Go read what I said again.. and realize you can't take today's numbers and apply any of them to the outcome of what they would be if you did what Sportage suggested. The whole equation, every aspect of it, would be completely different, not just at the federal level, but state and local levels as well. That 255T would become a vast part of the GDP going forward. As I said, it looks like a huge expense that is being assumed it would translate to Debt, which would only be true for a short amount of time, as the return on such "investment" in it's citizens would be astronomical.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
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136
Boy I sure am glad Democrats kept negotiating with him because looking unified is more important than getting anything accomplished oh wait.
I agree, I have been saying all along that Manchin never intended to vote for BBB or the Voting Right Act. Just check out the timeline. Every time Manchin has some complaint about it the Democrats work out a deal to give him what he wants and he then has some new problem. He is not negotiating in good faith, he is burning out the clock. He knows that the Democrats, and Biden in specific, badly want a unified Democratic party, but he has no interest in that, he just wants to dangle that carrot in front of them while the clock runs out.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,428
16,720
146
I agree, I have been saying all along that Manchin never intended to vote for BBB or the Voting Right Act. Just check out the timeline. Every time Manchin has some complaint about it the Democrats work out a deal to give him what he wants and he then has some new problem. He is not negotiating in good faith, he is burning out the clock. He knows that the Democrats, and Biden in specific, badly want a unified Democratic party, but he has no interest in that, he just wants to dangle that carrot in front of them while the clock runs out.
Yep, should have roasted that piece of shit over a spit the first time he started playing this game, make him unelectable. They'd be in the same spot wrt forward progress but at least nobody would say their house wasn't in order.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,429
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My apologies, You are correct, I looked at the actual debt amount before I even had my coffee after getting out of bed. But you are still looking at it wrong.. Debt is created when expenses out weight income. Paying out 255 Trillion at first looks like a huge expense and you are assuming would translate to debt, while ignoring what it would do to the income side of the equation, as well as, what expenses it would replace, not add too.

The entire M3 money supply in the USA is about 21 trillion and you want to issue 255 trillion in new money for economic benefit? I don't think that's going to work.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,242
14,243
136
I agree, I have been saying all along that Manchin never intended to vote for BBB or the Voting Right Act. Just check out the timeline. Every time Manchin has some complaint about it the Democrats work out a deal to give him what he wants and he then has some new problem. He is not negotiating in good faith, he is burning out the clock. He knows that the Democrats, and Biden in specific, badly want a unified Democratic party, but he has no interest in that, he just wants to dangle that carrot in front of them while the clock runs out.

Yes, well, you weren't much of a prognosticator on this since it has been directly reported by the media multiple times that Manchin has never wanted BBB in any form. This comes from staffers and other insiders.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
13,363
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Where did I say it would eliminate all other federal expenditures? IT would eliminate most of them however, as most of them are tied to social programs and such. But that is not what I said at all. Go read what I said again.. and realize you can't take today's numbers and apply any of them to the outcome of what they would be if you did what Sportage suggested. The whole equation, every aspect of it, would be completely different, not just at the federal level, but state and local levels as well. That 255T would become a vast part of the GDP going forward. As I said, it looks like a huge expense that is being assumed it would translate to Debt, which would only be true for a short amount of time, as the return on such "investment" in it's citizens would be astronomical.
The first sign this was a hare-brained idea is that it was proposed by sportage. The second sign should have been when you said $255T is just 1% of the national public debt, but that was due to a lack of coffee. The irony is that in your first reply, you explained reasons why giving each American adult $1M is a terrible fucking idea because most would spend it inefficiently.

Yet somehow you pivoted back and decided to defend this "plan" as if it doesn't have obvious glaring problems. Look, when you give citizens direct stimulus, that is not personal income. The simple fact of sending out that money inflates the public debt, because our federal government doesn't have $255T of money just lying around. Even if all Americans spent the money efficiently and wisely on domestic services and goods, you would never generate enough tax revenue to pay for the direct stimulus itself. Or any meaningful fraction thereof. Frankly I'm embarrassed we're even debating a crazy idea; instead we could debate whether the Tooth Fairy can fund college savings accounts or the Laffer Curve has stimulated the economy through multiple presidential administrations.

Again, $255T represents 12 years of current GDP. There's probably a reason no economist other than sportage has ever claimed that we could send out $1M to every adult, and we could afford to do it. Nor have I ever heard Bernie Sanders or any other social democrats propose it either.
 
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NWRMidnight

Diamond Member
Jun 18, 2001
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The first sign this was a hare-brained idea is that it was proposed by sportage. The second sign should have been when you said $255T is just 1% of the national public debt, but that was due to a lack of coffee. The irony is that in your first reply, you explained reasons why giving each American adult $1M is a terrible fucking idea because most would spend it inefficiently.

Yet somehow you pivoted back and decided to defend this "plan" as if it doesn't have obvious glaring problems. Look, when you give citizens direct stimulus, that is not personal income. The simple fact of sending out that money inflates the public debt, because our federal government doesn't have $255T of money just lying around. Even if all Americans spent the money efficiently and wisely on domestic services and goods, you would never generate enough tax revenue to pay for the direct stimulus itself. Or any meaningful fraction thereof. Frankly I'm embarrassed we're even debating a crazy idea; instead we could debate whether the Tooth Fairy can fund college savings accounts or the Laffer Curve has stimulated the economy through multiple presidential administrations.

Again, $255T represents 12 years of current GDP. There's probably a reason no economist other than sportage has ever claimed that we could send out $1M to every adult, and we could afford to do it. Nor have I ever heard Bernie Sanders or any other social democrats propose it either.
It's great that you ignored my apology about it being 1% of the national debt. The fact that you ignored that apology and chose to try and weaponize what I said, and throw it in my face shows what kind of person you are, and that you have no desire to even try to think past your own short slightness. Then go on to keep saying the same shit over and over trying to use the same equations and same numbers of today, thinking NOTHING would change. You think everyone would quit their jobs.. so their current income without the 1 Million would completely disappear, you think nobody would invest any of it, spend any of it, and it wouldn't generate any income taxes, that a million dollars to every adult wouldn't generate tax revenue outside of income, you think it would have zero effect on GDP, you think it would simply disappear in to thin air and have zero effect going forward on anything other than the debt side of things, and not generate income that would give it a return.. You have no clue what kind of return investing in people would actually bring.. This country and many of it's big businesses is built on doing just that. IN the end, you are just stuck in the "moment" and can't fathom that a net loss at the start would become a net positive in the years going forward. It's no different than investing in a business, that pays for itself after the initial investment.

As for the government doesn't have 255T laying around.. The government doesn't have any money laying around.. It hasn't had any real money since they got rid of the Gold Standard.. It's just paper printed up with nothing to back it. with much of it today just being 0's and 1' in the digital world.. Money is just a myth used to control citizens now days.. Not just in the US, but the world.

I don't blame you, Our society has never been built on investing in our citizens. It's always been built on knocking them down, controlling them, and keeping the majority poor. So you keep looking at everything the same status quo.

Edit: Also, you assume the 1 Million would be paid out in 1 lump sum.. Now realistically, if something like this was ever proposed, it should be paid over a set number of years, not all at once.
 
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
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I wondered about THAT possibility. Giving every American adult 1 mill and having them all decide to retire, at least till their 1 mill ran out. But for some out there, giving Americans the BBB is about as illogical as handing out the 1 mill.

Whether it BBB or passing voter rights bills, the only goal for democrats between now and November 2022 must be the expanding of the house and senate. Not just holding control, not just holding the fort, but to expand like never before. The naysayers will say this can never happen in a midterm with the party in power, I think it can happen and happen against all odds. However, democrats must do the groundwork starting yesterday. If a majority of voters really truly want BBB, then democrats need to make them make it happen. The polls are on democrats side, BBB is on democrats side, now democrats just need to get voters on the democrats side to elect more democrats.
If this were republicans at play, they would hire the best PR firm, devise some flashy buzz words, and brainwash Americans into voting republican. This method works for republicans, it always has. It gave us Donald Trump.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,940
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If this were republicans at play, they would hire the best PR firm, devise some flashy buzz words, and brainwash Americans into voting republican. This method works for republicans, it always has. It gave us Donald Trump.
You wish we would play politics.

Yes, I dare say I wish for that too. A better outcome, if realized, than simply telling Americans they are Nazi scum if they do not think exactly like "us".
I have mixed feelings on disparaging Manchin. He needs pressure to do the right thing. But not pressure into giving Senate Majority back to Mitch Mcconnel.
We are stuck between the hard place and the rock. In "charge" and powerless both. Yet the American people will dimwitted-ly think Democrats were "in charge" during the pain of the COVID crisis. There will be electoral losses as a result of nothing more than timing and inevitability. A million dead, shelves laid bare, prices skyrocketing. All COVID. All inevitable. Nothing to do with Biden or Democrats. Yet blame will fall all the same. The cursed ownership of incumbency.

I cannot imagine us winning the midterms. It would take a cunning campaign, and there is no Presidential election to rally behind this time. It won't happen. No, I think at best, the American people will hear that we hate "them". Hate antivaxers, hate anyone who questions the orthodoxy. There are no legitimate questions, only obedience. In a time of "papers please" to go about your daily lives, in some Blue places. Not good, to say nothing of other topics.

I felt we had no hope when, in 2020, the mere existence of Donald Trump could not usher in an overwhelming backlash. He may have lost the White House, but I saw the result as us losing the nation. We needed more. We still do, and I don't see any trace hint that we are inclined to even play politics, let alone smart enough to win such a contest. No, "we" will support rioters in the streets trying to lynch teenagers. Will fervently... nay, venomously decry every step required in that survival.

With such lines drawn, and with such stakes to bolster a steadfast resolve, it would take one hell of a campaign to move many people. A fools hope for a better future?

I just know that so long as we treat the American people as an enemy, Manchin included, we have trapped ourselves into an abyss.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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With such lines drawn, and with such stakes to bolster a steadfast resolve, it would take one hell of a campaign to move many people. A fools hope for a better future?

- With a little... ok truckload... of luck, in a few months Biden can declare the covid crisis over for the vaccinated, simply due to Omicron.
Thats the easy projections here anyway. Very optimistic projections say we top in a month and then smooth sailing from there.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,428
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We are stuck between the hard place and the rock. In "charge" and powerless both. Yet the American people will dimwitted-ly think Democrats were "in charge" during the pain of the COVID crisis. There will be electoral losses as a result of nothing more than timing and inevitability. A million dead, shelves laid bare, prices skyrocketing. All COVID. All inevitable. Nothing to do with Biden or Democrats. Yet blame will fall all the same. The cursed ownership of incumbency.
And yet, when a vote regarding Pentagon spending comes up, somehow our fearless leaders can come together around the campfire and agree to terms with hardly a whiff of pushback.
7 Democrats, 3 Republicans oppose.

They only fuck around with policies that actually help people. Help themselves or kill people in other countries? Signed on the dotted line. Fuck this 'rock and a hard place' business, they are the rock and the hard place.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
37,449
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And yet, when a vote regarding Pentagon spending comes up, somehow our fearless leaders can come together around the campfire and agree to terms with hardly a whiff of pushback.
7 Democrats, 3 Republicans oppose.

They only fuck around with policies that actually help people. Help themselves or kill people in other countries? Signed on the dotted line. Fuck this 'rock and a hard place' business, they are the rock and the hard place.
I used to get pissed about this stuff too, but then I realized that a huge portion of our economy depends on that military spending. Before we can cut it too deeply we need to make sure we are sending that spending somewhere else that will make up the difference.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
4,640
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I used to get pissed about this stuff too, but then I realized that a huge portion of our economy depends on that military spending. Before we can cut it too deeply we need to make sure we are sending that spending somewhere else that will make up the difference.
That is the easy part. Take half that money and aim it at something else. Here are just a few ideas. They are just off the top of my head.

Government owned fiber Internet. Every major city gets community owned high speed internet, paid for by taxes we already collect. Boom! lots of new jobs, lots of good infrastructure spending, no new taxes. Still have money left over? Open it up to smaller communities. Not enough money? Limit it to inner cities and the poorest communities.

Rooftop solar. Find places where it makes a lot of sense and install rooftop solar on houses, add community owned liquid metal batteries and build hyper local electric grids. You don't have to stop at solar either. There is a lot of small scale energy systems that can be used in different places. Rooftop wind turbines are a thing and work well in some locations. There are other power projects like that you could build in local communities. Like cold water heat pumps that use the temperature difference between cold water and the beach to run a heat pump turbine. These work well in the pacific northwest.

These are just two examples. I'm sure our politicians have heard hundreds of such proposals. Pick a few that will actually make a difference, and fund them.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
37,449
33,156
136
That is the easy part. Take half that money and aim it at something else. Here are just a few ideas. They are just off the top of my head.

Government owned fiber Internet. Every major city gets community owned high speed internet, paid for by taxes we already collect. Boom! lots of new jobs, lots of good infrastructure spending, no new taxes. Still have money left over? Open it up to smaller communities. Not enough money? Limit it to inner cities and the poorest communities.

Rooftop solar. Find places where it makes a lot of sense and install rooftop solar on houses, add community owned liquid metal batteries and build hyper local electric grids. You don't have to stop at solar either. There is a lot of small scale energy systems that can be used in different places. Rooftop wind turbines are a thing and work well in some locations. There are other power projects like that you could build in local communities. Like cold water heat pumps that use the temperature difference between cold water and the beach to run a heat pump turbine. These work well in the pacific northwest.

These are just two examples. I'm sure our politicians have heard hundreds of such proposals. Pick a few that will actually make a difference, and fund them.
Sure it's easy to come up with 1000 different ways to spend that money more effectively. The hard part is getting those policies past Republican obstruction.
 

SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,359
4,640
136
Sure it's easy to come up with 1000 different ways to spend that money more effectively. The hard part is getting those policies past Republican obstruction.
Of course. You were saying that you can't just cut military spending because so much of our economy depends on it. I was just pointing out that it only depends on it because that is where we spend that money. Move that money elsewhere and our economy will quickly adapt. If we have done anything successful in building a capitalistic society it is that our economy is quick to adapt to a change in where the money is flowing.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
37,449
33,156
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Of course. You were saying that you can't just cut military spending because so much of our economy depends on it. ...
Nah, I didn't say that. I said before we can cut it we need to make sure we're sending it somewhere more effective.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
17,428
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I used to get pissed about this stuff too, but then I realized that a huge portion of our economy depends on that military spending. Before we can cut it too deeply we need to make sure we are sending that spending somewhere else that will make up the difference.
A huge portion of our economy depends on the health and well-being of its citizens as well. My issue isn't bipartisan support for military spending, it's this fucking shitshow every time anyone wants to actually help people.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
22,365
6,503
136
- With a little... ok truckload... of luck, in a few months Biden can declare the covid crisis over for the vaccinated, simply due to Omicron.
Thats the easy projections here anyway. Very optimistic projections say we top in a month and then smooth sailing from there.
I don't see why we should think that covid has had it's run. We're stepping into year three of a two week lockdown to "flatten the curve". We've trashed the economy, we've run up an astonishing debt, we're looking at long term inflation, we've developed a vaccine that doesn't work very well. It seems to me that the rona is here to stay. That sucks a lot, but it's just another of those grim, meat hook reality's we have to learn to live with.
 
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dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
37,449
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I don't see why we should think that covid has had it's run. We're stepping into year three of a two week lockdown to "flatten the curve". We've trashed the economy, we've run up an astonishing debt, we're looking at long term inflation, we've developed a vaccine that doesn't work very well. It seems to me that the rona is here to stay. That sucks a lot, but it's just another of those grim, meat hook reality's we have to learn to live with.
That is an impressive amount of lies in one short post.
 
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