[Austin Statesman] AMD sees a way forward (with new Zen design)

[R0H1T]

Cannonlake will come in 2H 2017.

And the post I responded to said Q1/Q2 so the point still stands, unless it meant US' FY of 2017 & not CY 2017 :biggrin:

 

[AtenRa]

I still fail to see how this is a win for AMD though?

With Zen pushed to late 2016 / sometime in 2017, and Cannonlake proposed for release around Q1 / Q2 of 2017, Zen has to be able to compete with a 10 nm die shrink of Skylake.

That's a pretty big challenge for a processor architecture for which we still know very little.

For the millionth time,

The first ZEN will be competing against Broadwell-E for the 2011-V3 socket. Broadwell-E will launch in Q2-Q3 2016 and Skylake-E will come late 2017 or H1 2018.

 

[Fjodor2001]

You said Intel's 2016-2017 4C/8T chips will be slow and expensive compared to 8C/16T Zen.

What is that statement based on? Care to provide your sources? Is that speculation?

It is based on guesstimates by forum members in that thread, something that has been explained numerous times already. But it's quite clear you already knew that, but brought it up just to start yet another OOT argument.

Now what about your claims? Do you even have any guesstimates to base them on?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Lets say Zen turns out to be the wet dream you wish for. And AMD loves you so they give you an eight core, 16 thread CPU for $299.

Intel goes "Hmmmmm.....4770 list price is now $99." Intel just decided what Zen will compete with.

* Intel likes it's margins high. Historically when AMD has been competitive with Intel, Intel chose to give up market share rather than lowering their margins drastically.

* Price will of course have an affect, but it's not the only decisive factor - technological aspects are likely even more important. Even if Intel dropped the price of the Atom chips to $1, they would not be a Zen competitor, no matter how much Intel would desire that.

Base on this, do you really think Intel would lower the price of the 4770 to $99 in the scenario you described?

And do you consider the 4770 to be a possible Zen competitor technology-wise? Not e.g. Haswell-E, or some of the Xeon CPUs instead?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Right, but it says nothing about how many x16 slots it could support on the platform.

Its quite clear. There is 16 lanes for graphics, nothing more. SO yes, it specifies exactly how many electric x16 slots.

 

[mrmt]

* Intel likes it's margins high. Historically when AMD has been competitive with Intel, Intel chose to give up market share rather than lowering their margins drastically.

That was the 2000 Intel, but look at the 2013 Intel, that priced Bay Trail low enough to wipe out AMD cat line from the market.

 

[ShintaiDK]

For the millionth time,

The first ZEN will be competing against Broadwell-E for the 2011-V3 socket. Broadwell-E will launch in Q2-Q3 2016 and Skylake-E will come late 2017 or H1 2018.

Going to show us this roadmap of yours? Else you are just making up BS. But again it doesn fit your Zen "projections".

 

[ShintaiDK]

It is based on guesstimates by forum members in that thread, something that has been explained numerous times already. But it's quite clear you already knew that, but brought it up just to start yet another OOT argument.

Now what about your claims? Do you even have any guesstimates to base them on?

Busy giving others the blame if your idiotic statement doesn't hold true?

Funny considering how much you are after other people if they dont praise your fabled Zen and its hyped performance claims, while you attack everyone for not saying bad things about Intel.

Double standards stay double standards.

You are going to need a miracle in 2016.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Lol

I have a feeling by 2016 the hype will have grown to 8 cores at 95W and 4Ghz with Skylake IPC selling for 200$

 

[cytg111]

Double standards stay double standards.

This guy really must be living in an alternate reality of shrooms and acid.

 

[AtenRa]

Going to show us this roadmap of yours? Else you are just making up BS. But again it doesn fit your Zen "projections".

It was you who posted Broadwell-E got delayed here.

Do you really believe Intel will launch Skylake-E sooner than 12 months after Broadwell-E release in Q2-Q3 2016 ??

 

[ShintaiDK]

It was you who posted Broadwell-E got delayed here.

Do you really believe Intel will launch Skylake-E sooner than 12 months after Broadwell-E release in Q2-Q3 2016 ??

How on earth did you even get Q3 in for Broadwell?

Someone said the same about desktop Broadwell. Look what released just after, Skylake. It was already doomed for a 2016 release by said person.

 

[Sweepr]

How on earth did you even get Q3 in for Broadwell?

Someone said the same about desktop Broadwell. Look what released just after, Skylake. It was already doomed for a 2016 release by said person.

According to the latest info by CPU-World (after the Bench-life leak):

Broadwell-EP 2P set to launch in Q1-2016 with up to 22C/44T.
Broadwell-EP 4P and Broadwell-EX set to launch in Q2-2016.

I'd rather trust them than a made up Q3 to make the late 2016 or 2017 Summit Ridge launch (if it was delayed again) look a bit better.

 

[AtenRa]

How on earth did you even get Q3 in for Broadwell?

I said Q2-Q3, not Q3. It could be late Q2 (June) or early Q3 (July).

Even if Broadwell-E will release in Q2 2016, Skylake-E will not launch before Q2 2017.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Busy giving others the blame if your idiotic statement doesn't hold true?

Funny considering how much you are after other people if they dont praise your fabled Zen and its hyped performance claims, while you attack everyone for not saying bad things about Intel.

Double standards stay double standards.

You are going to need a miracle in 2016.

Lol. There is no blame to be had. It's just guesstimates after all. But guesstimates themselves can be questioned and reasoned about though, which is ok.

Anyway, it looks like your having a case of projection. Everything you wrote would be more true about yourself, you just have to change Zen to some Intel product. In fact you're probably one of the most biased people on the entire forum. Never writing anything positive about any other company than Intel. So it's quite funny that you are attacking other less biased forum members for reasons such as these.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Right, anyone not expecting what, 6-8 cores Zen at 4Ghz with Haswell or Skylake IPC at 95W as fabless and on a tiny budget is completely biased against the company. Oh wait, I forgot the 200-300$ pricetag too?

See unlike your statements, the markedshare, products and purchases backs up my position.

And when AMD cant deliver, the next flavor becomes an ARM company. Says a lot.

I can understand the frustration deepens as a certain company keeps plummeting in an ever increasing pace.

 

[dark zero]

That was the 2000 Intel, but look at the 2013 Intel, that priced Bay Trail low enough to wipe out AMD cat line from the market.

But the performance of Bay Trail and even worse, Cherry Trail are a True disaster and provokes that people return the products into a higher rate than the Big Cores.
Even VIA wipes the floor with that.

 

[Fjodor2001]

See unlike your statements, the markedshare, products and purchases backs up my position.

But Zen is not released yet, so all of that is unknown, and thus cannot back up either position.

That is except for the last part, if you talk about your own personal potential purchases. Because then we do agree on that. Doesn't matter if AMD Zen would have twice the IPC of Skylake-E, twice the frequency, half the price, and half the TDP. Hell would freeze over before you would ever by an AMD CPU.

 

[Arachnotronic]

For the millionth time,
Broadwell-E will launch in Q2-Q3 2016 and Skylake-E will come late 2017 or H1 2018.

Uh, no.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I have a feeling by 2016 the hype will have grown to 8 cores at 95W and 4Ghz with Skylake IPC selling for 200$

It's very easy to build up a chip that doesn't exist to be exactly what you want it to be.

 

[Boze]

I said Q2-Q3, not Q3. It could be late Q2 (June) or early Q3 (July).

Even if Broadwell-E will release in Q2 2016, Skylake-E will not launch before Q2 2017.

So instead of buying a Zen in Q1 2017, just wait for Q2 2017 and buy the superior product which will likely be on a new X109 chipset...

Okay.

 

[William Gaatjes]

I sure hope Zen will be competitive. It is obvious that Zen will consume more power than the current AMD cores. I guess AMD will go for as fast as I7 or maybe just a few single digit percents lower but at a cheaper price.
I guess that is the only way for AMD to release a competitive product if it consumes about the same and performs about the same but is cheaper. And since all future discrete gpu's are no longer going to be memory bandwidth limit with the arrival of HBM memory, it makes sense for AMD not to invest in APU alike models for the coming time unless these are APU+HBM models developed for console use.

I do wonder, AMD had unified cpu and gpu memory ? That both unit's can reach each others memory and modify data directly without having to use a copy, modify and write back strategy. This was a significant speed up in comparison to the old copy, modify and writeback strategy.
How is that going to work with the new discrete HBM models from AMD and upcoming from Nvidia ? Does PCI-express 3 allow such features ?

 

[ShintaiDK]

But Zen is not released yet, so all of that is unknown, and thus cannot back up either position.

That is except for the last part, if you talk about your own personal potential purchases. Because then we do agree on that. Doesn't matter if AMD Zen would have twice the IPC of Skylake-E, twice the frequency, half the price, and half the TDP. Hell would freeze over before you would ever by an AMD CPU.

I had K8 like many others. But ever since Core 2, AMD haven't had anything to offer.

 

[ShintaiDK]

It's very easy to build up a chip that doesn't exist to be exactly what you want it to be.

Indeed. Performance/watt is to be between 50 and 100% better than Intel across the board if we are to believe these fantasies. Its amazing they cant see the issue themselves.

 

[Arachnotronic]

So instead of buying a Zen in Q1 2017, just wait for Q2 2017 and buy the superior product which will likely be on a new X109 chipset...

Okay.

Skylake-E will share a chipset with Kaby Lake, which should be very similar to Z170 today.

But if I had to guess, I'd say Skylake-E will be a superior product to any Zen desktop chip.