Atlantic Ocean getting hot as hell - could be monstrous hurricane season

[K1052]

I'd be wary of everyone else having the exact same idea. I'd rather miss one family function than be sitting in my car on a highway in the middle of a cat 2

Ordinarily I’d agree however I’m going to see my grandfather for his 101st birthday.

 

[Puffnstuff]

The folks south of me are in for a really bad time Wednesday if not before as they are already flooding down there. I've seen a forecast model that says the stronger it becomes the more northerly it will track. Even Jacksonville is in the cone and we don't want it.

 

[Jaskalas]

Reportedly expected to peak at Cat5 in the Gulf, then encounter shear on approach to Florida. This should lower the max winds dramatically but also expand the wind field.
Likely going to create a larger storm surge than expected for whatever landfall intensity it achieves.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

No C5 here:

INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

[Puffnstuff]

Latest update from fox weather in Tampa Bay.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Ordinarily I’d agree however I’m going to see my grandfather for his 101st birthday.

While I understand, I'd wager he'd rather you miss his birthday than your own. Stay safe.

 

[K1052]

While I understand, I'd wager he'd rather you miss his birthday than your own. Stay safe.

I'm eyeing the track and timing closely, will adjust as needed. Fortunately it is moving slowly. He and my mother hare happy we're coming so that we can help them prep for the storm lol.

 

[Puffnstuff]

I'm eyeing the track and timing closely, will adjust as needed. Fortunately it is moving slowly. He and my mother hare happy we're coming so that we can help them prep for the storm lol.

FYI its going to pick up speed like Helene once the jet stream grabs it.

 

[K1052]

FYI its going to pick up speed like Helene once the jet stream grabs it.

I will of course be obsessively refreshing the NHC's twitter page for the next 5 days.

 

[Moonbeam]

I don't know why Trump doesn't redraw where the storm will hit and save people's lives

 

[Stokely]

First obvious thing is to get away from surge areas.

After that, the big worries if you have a decently-built place are flooding (if that can happen in your area) and trees falling. The wind gets the most talk but I've rarely seen any wind damage here that has compared to that done by falling trees or floods. Not to say it can't cause damage of course, and sure you could say that falling trees is part of "wind damage"... Charley knocked over tons of huge oaks in 2004 in Orlando because no storm had come through in ages to test them, and the ground was soggy. Well, the ground is soggy now. Many of those broken limbs and trees fell on cars and houses. They also caused mayhem for many days because they blocked residential streets.

Also be very wary of wandering around after a storm, because downed power lines can be hiding and with all that water....

After that storm, I went from wanting big oaks around my house (for the shade) to wanting none anywhere near my house.

 

[Lanyap]

First obvious thing is to get away from surge areas.

After that, the big worries if you have a decently-built place are flooding (if that can happen in your area) and trees falling. The wind gets the most talk but I've rarely seen any wind damage here that has compared to that done by falling trees or floods. Not to say it can't cause damage of course, and sure you could say that falling trees is part of "wind damage"... Charley knocked over tons of huge oaks in 2004 in Orlando because no storm had come through in ages to test them, and the ground was soggy. Well, the ground is soggy now. Many of those broken limbs and trees fell on cars and houses. They also caused mayhem for many days because they blocked residential streets.

Also be very wary of wandering around after a storm, because downed power lines can be hiding and with all that water....

After that storm, I went from wanting big oaks around my house (for the shade) to wanting none anywhere near my house.

And don’t walk out to check things out when the eye / center comes over you.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Almost a cat 4 but it may scrape the Yucatán which would help disrupt things and lower the intensity of the storm.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Likely to reach cat 5 later today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843259380642267488

 

[Indus]

Likely to reach cat 5 later today.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1843259380642267488

Saw this under the same link.. is this real??

 

[Roger Wilco]

Saw this under the same link.. is this real??

View attachment 108820

It is a unique trajectory and yes, mass power outages can be expected.

Hopefully the storm will lose some strength before landfall, but right now it’s intensifying like crazy.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Yikes winds up to 150 mph. Almost cat 5 already.

 

[Amused]

Saw this under the same link.. is this real??

View attachment 108820

Unusual, but not unheard of in history.

Even Twitter/X is posting community notes of historical storms that followed this trajectory.

But that's not stopping the "weather modification" conspiratards who claim weather can be created/controlled/altered (beyond cloud seeding) and can't understand basic physics.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Charley and others

It's almost like no one remembers '04 and '05.

First obvious thing is to get away from surge areas.

After that, the big worries if you have a decently-built place are flooding (if that can happen in your area) and trees falling. The wind gets the most talk but I've rarely seen any wind damage here that has compared to that done by falling trees or floods. Not to say it can't cause damage of course, and sure you could say that falling trees is part of "wind damage"... Charley knocked over tons of huge oaks in 2004 in Orlando because no storm had come through in ages to test them, and the ground was soggy. Well, the ground is soggy now. Many of those broken limbs and trees fell on cars and houses. They also caused mayhem for many days because they blocked residential streets.

Also be very wary of wandering around after a storm, because downed power lines can be hiding and with all that water....

After that storm, I went from wanting big oaks around my house (for the shade) to wanting none anywhere near my house.

 

[Stokely]

Yes, Charley/Francis/Jeanne right in a row.

From what I remember, Charley by far did the most damage to the trees. There were not many weaker/older ones left for the next two, in this area at least. The big worry was that all the tree debris from Charley, which was just sitting around in piles still, was going to get flung about.

If there's a silver lining, no pun intended, maybe this shit will get my wife wanting to gtfo of here sooner than we intended. She has a realty-based business so it's not just la-la-la pick up and go. I'll miss a few people but that's all I'll miss about this place.

 

[Dave_5k]

Saw this under the same link.. is this real??

While map looks accurate offhand, the power generators are all hardened and elevated, I wouldn't worry about those too much. Florida generation is mostly on natural gas - and there are at least 3 major interstate gas pipelines (and a couple smaller ones) supplying the gas, so no single point of failure.

Now poles and wires on the other hand... are always a mess.

 

[K1052]

If the most recent tracks bear out the Tampa area is really in for it.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Winds up to 155 mph.



NHC calling for a cat 3 landfall, but cat 4 or even 5 seem plausible. Storm surge will be terrible in areas just hit by Helene.

 

[Pens1566]

If the most recent tracks bear out the Tampa area is really in for it.

Yeah, it better make landfall south of TB or it'll be awful.

 

[Stokely]

While map looks accurate offhand, the power generators are all hardened and elevated, I wouldn't worry about those too much. Florida generation is mostly on natural gas - and there are at least 3 major interstate gas pipelines (and a couple smaller ones) supplying the gas, so no single point of failure.

Now poles and wires on the other hand... are always a mess.

Yep, for Irma half our neighborhood lost power for 3 days--my half, unfortunately--due to the wires feeding my side going down (and maybe other damage). This happens so much after every big storm that even with extra power crews they can't get around to everyone right away.

Too expensive I guess to bury everything (and of course, morons will come along and cut into wires, happens with fiber from time to time). I wonder how many times fixing the overhead wires would add up to the up-front burying expense... It sure would look nicer too.

Hurricanes are kind of exciting (even knowing they can be deadly). But when you have a bulls-eye on you (as I do right now), it's quite the awful feeling. I don't expect my home will be damaged most likely (no trees around my house, and no flooding issues) but I'm dreading potentially losing power for days. We have solar plus battery but our system has had a few issues...and I'm not sure how long we could go on battery. We may find out.

I should have stayed in MN, though my grown kids and cats are here so I can't be that selfish!