Question are video card prices headed down yet?

[GodisanAtheist]

DIAMOND HANDS

 

[maddie]

Presumably AMD is delaying N33's launch too. They will just take N33's wafers and shift them to Genoa.

Did you see this mentioned or just an assumption by you?

 

[maddie]

But TSMC has no incentive to reduce the contract size, where they get a lot of money per wafer, to then sell that same wafer for much less to others, when they can demand that Nvidia resells that wafer for much less to another company, so Nvidia is taking the loss, not TSMC.

Of course, TSMC might want to keep Nvidia happy by taking a bit of the loss themselves, but there is little incentive to take much of the loss, when companies don't pay TSMC more when the demand for wafers go up, and they still have a contract with a lower price than the then-current price per wafer.

Ultimately, to bargain you need leverage and Nvidia has very little. It's not like they showed loyalty to TSMC in the past, when they went to Samsung. AMD is a loyal TSMC customer, but Nvidia is not.

What is the implied assumption here? There is another customer ready to snap up wafers.

This will sound brutal and it is, but not malicious. I don't live in the developed West and look at the world a bit differently. This time IS different. Very few have any idea what's happening, economy wise and will stay blind until too late. Europe especially is ******. The US will do a bit better but will still experience hard realities.

All the big companies are suddenly announcing layoffs and this will infect the medium & smaller ones in sort order. If the central banks print, commodity prices escalate, strong western currencies will be abandoned by the wider world. This really is an inflection point and anyone thinking recent (50 yrs) history is predicting the near future is utterly wrong.

99%+ haven't a clue as to what is happening now. Sorry for rant, but frustrated by the complacence. My island is a world ranked ( top 5) commodity exporter so should weather this better than most.

 

[Aapje]

What is the implied assumption here? There is another customer ready to snap up wafers.

If the price goes down enough, someone will want those wafers. Also, at a certain price, Nvidia will prefer to keep those wafers off the market.

But again, that's Nvidia's problem, not TSMCs.

 

[DrMrLordX]

AMD can take Nvidia's vacated TSMC production capacity to make PS5 chips, assuming they have a die-shrink ready. Or just make extra Zen 4 chips and undercut Raptor Lake. Let there be a price war!

No

They would/should make Genoa/Bergamo. Intel is still a volume leader in the server market, selling mostly 14nm nonsense. Kind of off-topic so I'll stop there but you do the math.

 

[maddie]

If the price goes down enough, someone will want those wafers. Also, at a certain price, Nvidia will prefer to keep those wafers off the market.

But again, that's Nvidia's problem, not TSMCs.

Yep, if the price goes down enough. Not mixing cause and effect. The price going down will be caused by a much deeper problem that will affect all demand. Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Apple, Samsung, auto makers, consumer electronics, etc. That is what I'm writing about.

Theoretical problem here.
Is there some level of production at TSMC where supply and demand is balanced and bidding wars for wafers do not occur?
I will say yes, and this has been the norm for most of the past. TSMC has had to sometimes offer incentives to attract customers. We forget this.
Will a much cheaper wafer cost automatically translate into orders?
Not sure, as most of the initial design and validation costs will still be higher for the latest nodes. Will the design have enough sales to recoup this?

 

[Fanatical Meat]

DIAMOND HANDS

King Diamond

 

[moonbogg]

TSMC raising price of GPU die that constitutes 1/10 of total video card cost by 9% = Nvidia raising price of entire video card by 50%.

 

[jpiniero]

Did you see this mentioned or just an assumption by you?

Just an assumption. Presumably AMD has plenty of unsold GPU inventory too.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Presumably AMD has plenty of unsold GPU inventory too.

Like much of the RDNA2 refresh, perhaps?

 

[Leeea]

Just an assumption. Presumably AMD has plenty of unsold GPU inventory too.

I disagree.

Nvidia and AMD sold everything they could make. The ebay prices alone are a tip off of that.

Yea, mining is crashing now, but prior to this, nothing stayed on the shelf for a microsecond. Production is already shifting to next gen now, so I doubt their is much new stock lying around.

On the used market, yes, lots of stock. But the new market? I doubt either manufacturer has any real stocks.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

Thing is, if the recession hits hard enough, that might be enough to get the money printer turned back on. Which means crypto and mining will be back. That's why I mentioned Q1.

That is about the worst thing you can do:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

 

[jpiniero]

Yea, mining is crashing now, but prior to this, nothing stayed on the shelf for a microsecond. Production is already shifting to next gen now, so I doubt their is much new stock lying around.

I suppose it's possible that nVidia thought they would be able to sell GA102 to miners so they weren't originally planning on ramping down like you would think.

 

[Aapje]

Production is already shifting to next gen now, so I doubt their is much new stock lying around.

On the used market, yes, lots of stock. But the new market? I doubt either manufacturer has any real stocks.

This is obviously false as there is plenty of stock in stores and at the warehouses. Otherwise there would be 'Out of Stock' on their site, but pretty much any model is in stock, except for the FE's.

For example, one Dutch shop says that their supplier has 444 ASUS TUF 3080's in stock. And that is just one 3080 model.

 

[Ajay]

This is obviously false as there is plenty of stock in stores and at the warehouses. Otherwise there would be 'Out of Stock' on their site, but pretty much any model is in stock, except for the FE's.

For example, one Dutch shop says that their supplier has 444 ASUS TUF 3080's in stock. And that is just one 3080 model.

Interesting, online in the US (Newegg and Amazon) - I’m seeing cards going in and out of stock. Or, in stock by some third party seller at a $150 premium with a seller rating of 48% 🙄

 

[Ranulf]

Interesting, online in the US (Newegg and Amazon) - I’m seeing cards going in and out of stock. Or, in stock by some third party seller at a $150 premium with a seller rating of 48% 🙄

Well, thats 3rd party craziness that happens at NE and Amazon etc. almost all the time.

 

[moonbogg]

Well, Newegg still thinks their 3080s are all worth between $800 and $1000+. So there's the problem right there. At the same time, they still have basically half a year before the next gen arrives, so still plenty of time for people to build their dogecoin rigs and fill their garage with 3080s.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Well, Newegg still thinks their 3080s are all worth between $800 and $1000+. So there's the problem right there. At the same time, they still have basically half a year before the next gen arrives, so still plenty of time for people to build their dogecoin rigs and fill their garage with 3080s.

Dogecoin is mined on ASICs dual-mined with LiteCoin.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Ugh saw a 6600 XT on the Hot Deals subforum for $345 and all I could think was wow 5700XT performance for 5700XT price 2-3 years later.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Ugh saw a 6600 XT on the Hot Deals subforum for $345 and all I could think was wow 5700XT performance for 5700XT price 2-3 years later.

yeah that’s pretty much what I think with all the “sales”.
Prices still suck.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

New card prices are still pure distilled ass. It's a disappointing listening to people bragging about their $700 6900XT or $800 3080Ti like Jesus Christ people those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

 

[jpiniero]

New card prices are still pure distilled ass. It's a disappointing listening to people bragging about their $700 6900XT or $800 3080Ti like Jesus Christ people those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Bird in the hand, two in the bush, etc...

 

[DeathReborn]

This is obviously false as there is plenty of stock in stores and at the warehouses. Otherwise there would be 'Out of Stock' on their site, but pretty much any model is in stock, except for the FE's.

For example, one Dutch shop says that their supplier has 444 ASUS TUF 3080's in stock. And that is just one 3080 model.

In the UK almost any card at or below MSRP goes out of stock then a few days later more stock arrives, the more expensive cards tend to stay in stock permanently now. Some cards are stubbornly overpriced still like the 3060, 3060 Ti, 3070, 6600XT, 6650XT, 6700XT & 6750XT.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

It’s just panic buying, people are still fearful of a shortage. Once all those orders are filled prices will rationalize.

 

[Aapje]

In the UK almost any card at or below MSRP goes out of stock then a few days later more stock arrives, the more expensive cards tend to stay in stock permanently now. Some cards are stubbornly overpriced still like the 3060, 3060 Ti, 3070, 6600XT, 6650XT, 6700XT & 6750XT.

The claim to which I responded was that there are no cards in stock. This is false. It is true that the prices are still inflated.