Question are video card prices headed down yet?

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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Nobody serious about the technology will really be hurt. Speculators? Sure. But they'll just buy the dips and roll back in later. Money isn't vanishing, it's just changing hands.

In any case, a massive crash before PoS is exactly what the market needs for anyone looking to accumulate for staking. It's almost like someone planned it! Meanwhile, video card prices will crash due to the double pressure of tanking ETH prices and no real future for ETH mining. Plus other alts are also getting wrecked, so it's unlikely that hashpower will be able to chase anything else. Bad time to be a miner.

-My father in law, a very well off 70 year old man and avid Fox News consumer, was having a chat 6 months ago about putting 100k into Bitcoin because "we can't trust the Fed and Dem pols are gonna destroy the dollar".

I was reminded of the famous Warren Buffett quote about getting stock tips from the bellboy or what have you and here we are with Bitcoin/Eth/Alt coins getting absolutely gutted.

No need for Machiavellian planning, coin speculation just got big enough to reach the ignorant/dumb money which pumped the skyward spiral and the subsequent cratering.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
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I have extended family members who, over the past year or two, would try to convince everyone at holiday gatherings to invest in Bitcoin, ETH, and other coins, but primarily Bitcoin. I nodded and said stuff like, "oh dang, yeah maybe I'll check that out later. Yeah I agree, screw inflation for sure. Looks like an interesting idea you got there." I didn't bother to reveal the scars on my scalp from the last time it rained GTX 1080s for 40 days and 40 nights. I was too busy going for seconds on those delicious holiday meatballs. Maybe I should have more clearly expressed my opinion that unregulated digital currency is basically on the level of trick money you can buy at a magician supply store. I didn't want to make him sound stupid, because heck, what do I know? I hope he didn't lose his ass recently.
 
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SPBHM

Diamond Member
Sep 12, 2012
5,058
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I'm seeing a flood of graphics cards showing up on the local used market, prices are still too high imo, but yeah...
those are clearly from mining rigs;
I think it's going to continue dropping A LOT considering the huge amount people have been hoarding for mining; unless something significant happens.
they are still asking way too much for old RX 570s and such.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
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I'm seeing a flood of graphics cards showing up on the local used market, prices are still too high imo, but yeah...
those are clearly from mining rigs;
I think it's going to continue dropping A LOT considering the huge amount people have been hoarding for mining; unless something significant happens.
they are still asking way too much for old RX 570s and such.

It will take a bit before people change their mindset on GPU value. Just a couple months ago a 3080 was over $2000. There has to be a lot of cryptobros who filled their basement with those things at inflated prices, never made their money back and now can't turn on the rig without losing money. They will list them at the highest price possible, and they will sell none.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,796
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It will take a bit before people change their mindset on GPU value. Just a couple months ago a 3080 was over $2000. There has to be a lot of cryptobros who filled their basement with those things at inflated prices, never made their money back and now can't turn on the rig without losing money. They will list them at the highest price possible, and they will sell none.
We might rediscover them in 30-40 yrs time in some old garage cleaning sale.
 

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,485
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At this point I'd probably wait to see what 7700XT is like. As fast as 6900XT at only 200W? Yes please. Hopefully the flood of previous gen will keep the price of new gen reasonable. Worst comes to worst I'll just keep my 3070.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,435
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Honest question to everyone here: if we get a doubling of performance every 2 years, is there a point at which we get "good enough" performance such that there's really no need for the flagship GPU? What resolution/fps target is sufficient for the vast majority of PC gamers and how soon can we get there?

Currently, we're at the point where mainstream GPUs do 4K30 and the flagship GPUs do 4K60. The next generation will likely double that to 4K60 at the mainstream and 4K120 at the high-end, and the generation after that will double it once more to 4K120 at the mainstream level, and 4K240 at the high end. (Note: I define mainstream as <$500, and flagship as >$1000).

At some point, GPUs provide enough grunt that there's simply diminishing returns, right? I mean, 8K resolution is totally unnecessary because to appreciate 8K you either need to have a HUGE display, which isn't always better if you have to move your head to see the whole picture, or you sit extremely close to the monitor such that you'd notice the pixels at 4K. If we assume that 4K is enough resolution, then the other variable is fps. Is there enough demand to sustain the new trend of crazy expensive, high-end GPUs in the next 5 years? Will games that heavily use VR and/or real time raytracing be enough to generate the demand?

If you gave me a GPU that was $500 and it did 4K120 at 200W, I think I'd be set for a few years. I suspect the majority of the market is in the same boat. I would have no desire to buy the flagship of that generation if it did 4K240 but was >$1000.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,482
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Currently, we're at the point where mainstream GPUs do 4K30 and the flagship GPUs do 4K60. The next generation will likely double that to 4K60 at the mainstream and 4K120 at the high-end, and the generation after that will double it once more to 4K120 at the mainstream level, and 4K240 at the high end. (Note: I define mainstream as <$500, and flagship as >$1000).
Yes, and calculations are (relatively) easier. Data-movement is harder, and more energy-costly.

What kind of memory technologies will we need to be able to quadruple bandwidth, and what kind of TDP/board power are we going to be looking at? 4x today's 300-350W cards? All for "just" a GPU? Pretty-soon, we're going to have bona-fide AI processing in our PCs somewhere, most likely in the GPU, too, so that needs to be added in as well.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,907
5,481
136
Honest question to everyone here: if we get a doubling of performance every 2 years, is there a point at which we get "good enough" performance such that there's really no need for the flagship GPU? What resolution/fps target is sufficient for the vast majority of PC gamers and how soon can we get there?

4k144. The 4090/7950 XT should be able to do that with today's AAA games but that might not last if there's a big fidelity jump with dumping the previous gen consoles.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Or what if GPUs become obsolete due to AI generating entire game worlds and streaming to us in almost real time?
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,435
7,355
136
4k144. The 4090/7950 XT should be able to do that with today's AAA games but that might not last if there's a big fidelity jump with dumping the previous gen consoles.
Makes sense. Maybe I'm in the minority but I think that today's AAA games are plenty pretty enough. That list includes games like Cyberpunk 2077, The Last of Us Part 2, Horizon Forbidden West, and pretty much any next-gen game that uses Unreal Engine 5. I think those games can be played at 4k120 in the upcoming generation, but playing them at 4k60 isn't bad at all.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,637
3,095
136
Seeing a lot more 3080 and 3090s on ebay than before.

The cheapest ones I saw were only $20 below msrp. That's way too high at this stage. They should all be under $500 because with next gen so close, you'd almost have to pay me to take one. If the 3080s drop to $350, I might be happy enough with it and just go for the cheap upgrade. But if I'm already spending $500 or more, I'm putting that money toward a 4000 series card. You have to be nuts to spend $700+ on any USED 3080 variant right now, including the stupid 3080Ti which is the same thing at twice the price.
 

Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
218
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Honest question to everyone here: if we get a doubling of performance every 2 years, is there a point at which we get "good enough" performance such that there's really no need for the flagship GPU? What resolution/fps target is sufficient for the vast majority of PC gamers and how soon can we get there?

Currently, we're at the point where mainstream GPUs do 4K30 and the flagship GPUs do 4K60. The next generation will likely double that to 4K60 at the mainstream and 4K120 at the high-end, and the generation after that will double it once more to 4K120 at the mainstream level, and 4K240 at the high end. (Note: I define mainstream as <$500, and flagship as >$1000).

At some point, GPUs provide enough grunt that there's simply diminishing returns, right? I mean, 8K resolution is totally unnecessary because to appreciate 8K you either need to have a HUGE display, which isn't always better if you have to move your head to see the whole picture, or you sit extremely close to the monitor such that you'd notice the pixels at 4K. If we assume that 4K is enough resolution, then the other variable is fps. Is there enough demand to sustain the new trend of crazy expensive, high-end GPUs in the next 5 years? Will games that heavily use VR and/or real time raytracing be enough to generate the demand?

If you gave me a GPU that was $500 and it did 4K120 at 200W, I think I'd be set for a few years. I suspect the majority of the market is in the same boat. I would have no desire to buy the flagship of that generation if it did 4K240 but was >$1000.

Back in my day sonny jim (old person grumbles) we upgraded our card every year or we couldn't even play the newest games I tells ya!

Ok that's an exaggeration, but yes the bar for "good enough" for ever more titles and types of games has become cheaper and more accessible and more portable over the years. We've still got a ways to go till we're just using the holodeck or the matrix or something, or heck even UE5 (at least the shiny demos) in VR or whatever will probably need at least another two generations or so to play at 8k 144hz, and that's and the highest end. But if you want to play Stardew Valley or Among Us you can just use a relatively cheap phone. Heck even a Switch plays games that would blow PS2 era gamers minds, or PS3 era gamers in some cases. For most "gamerz" the neat thing about this next generation of cards won't be $2k cards to play games at 4k 240hz but that a $500 should be able to play a lot of triple a games at 4k 30-60 and max settings, and that's just fine and cool.
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,084
7,517
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Most prevalent PC performance tier is 1080/60Hz/Maxed

A card that hits that performance level will essentially satisfy 90%+ PC gamers out there.

144hz+ / 1440p+ is a minority of PC gamers, but a card that can do 4K/60hz/Maxed would essentially cover 99.9% of the market.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,850
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So he WANTS the price to drop to make it more trade friendly? How do they plan on compensating the current ETH holders for the loss?

Yes, and outside of the ICO, nobody in the EF really asked people to bid the ETH price up at all (to $4k or otherwise). Personally I don't think it should have gone past $40-$100.

-My father in law, a very well off 70 year old man and avid Fox News consumer, was having a chat 6 months ago about putting 100k into Bitcoin because "we can't trust the Fed and Dem pols are gonna destroy the dollar".

Well he was half right. Too bad he didn't stop to think that crypto markets were awash in QE money.

Or what if GPUs become obsolete due to AI generating entire game worlds and streaming to us in almost real time?

Too much latency.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,725
5,480
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ETH is tanking, it may actually collapse in on itself before Proof-of-Stake transition happens, even, which will bring the whole DeFi economy down with it.

I am beginning to wonder if that is possible.

It is just above a $1000 per usd, and if all the miners start pulling the plug how many transactions will it be able to do at this difficulty level? I do not think the difficulty level adapts fast enough to compensate for even half the miners taking their ball and going home.


And unlike the whales, us miners are not speculators. I know I always sold eth as soon as I made it. Bunch of people online screaming mine alt coin, but that is all baloney they are yelling to try to keep the GPU price up while they dump theirs.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,725
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So he WANTS the price to drop to make it more trade friendly? How do they plan on compensating the current ETH holders for the loss?

Who cares! Let it burn!

I put the bottom at $200 / eth, if the network does not just fold up and break from lack of miners. If the network folds, it will be $0 / eth, which will be 100% awesome.

On the bitcoin side, they have to be mining at a loss. Wonder how long they will do that before walking away.


The transaction rate is going to take a dive for these PoW schemes, that should very nicely murder the exchange rate.
 
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Insert_Nickname

Diamond Member
May 6, 2012
4,971
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Pretty-soon, we're going to have bona-fide AI processing in our PCs somewhere, most likely in the GPU, too, so that needs to be added in as well.

We could certainly do with some better AI in many games. But is that a whole other discussion?

I think we're mostly there already. Most DX11 capable GPUs should be able to do basic machine learning and neural net processing. Just not very fast.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,907
5,481
136
I put the bottom at $200 / eth, if the network does not just fold up and break from lack of miners.

There's miners out there with ultra cheap electricity that they will stick around unless all the coins go to zero. Difficulty will start to drop.
 

SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
7,189
6,045
136
I'm seeing a flood of graphics cards showing up on the local used market, prices are still too high imo, but yeah...
those are clearly from mining rigs;
I think it's going to continue dropping A LOT considering the huge amount people have been hoarding for mining; unless something significant happens.
they are still asking way too much for old RX 570s and such.

Too bad we probably won't see anything like November 2014 when LiteCoin miners dumping their Hawaii cards onto the used market caused R9 290 prices to collapse even on the new market. I remember when Sapphire Tri-X R9 290, one of the nicest ones on the market, was going for $230 new with five free games in the Never Settle Space Bundle. Would be like getting an RTX 3080 for $300 plus Steam codes for God of War, Horizon Zero Dawn, Cyberpunk 2077, and Monster Hunter Rise bundled with it.
 
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SteveGrabowski

Diamond Member
Oct 20, 2014
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Still, wondering what might start becoming available at $300 new, as that would likely be the price range I'd be looking in. If it's just 3060 dropping $30 below MSRP no thanks.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,907
5,481
136
Still, wondering what might start becoming available at $300 new, as that would likely be the price range I'd be looking in. If it's just 3060 dropping $30 below MSRP no thanks.

You could get the 6600 but that's about it. Even most 3050's are still selling for above $300.