Anyone live in a red state with increasing COVID-19 cases, what's it like?

[Jhhnn]

hahahahah, like the butterfly ballots can't return, right?

It won't even be close at the rate Trump is destroying himself.

 

[MtnMan]

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Daddy, daddy, he called me names, go beat him up...

 

[Paratus]

well damn! Look at that. Sure looks exponential to me.
Houston area will be out of surge ICU beds in less than 10 days.

 

[ElFenix]

Everything else being equal, why would it peak at all short of herd immunity? Texas currently has about 5000 new cases per day nearly doubling every week. Maintaining that trajectory, they'll have 20K new cases per day 2 weeks from now, 80K new cases per day in a month. But, you know, the important thing is to keep Trump happy & give him 4 more glorious years. Oh, yeh. Oh, Baby!

with no countermeasures the case load peaks at herd immunity. that's the definition of herd immunity. problem is that the total number of cases (that is, case load + "recovered" + dead)shoots well past the number needed for herd immunity.


texas med center reports info for their hospitals' whole systems, so this covers a lot but not all of the hospitals in the houston area. these are scary numbers:

 

[Jhhnn]

with no countermeasures the case load peaks at herd immunity. that's the definition of herd immunity. problem is that the total number of cases (that is, case load + "recovered" + dead)shoots well past the number needed for herd immunity.


texas med center reports info for their hospitals' whole systems, so this covers a lot but not all of the hospitals in the houston area. these are scary numbers:

Herd immunity is somewhere north of half the total population recovered or dead. The fatality rate shoots up when the hospital system is overloaded. It goes straight to Hell in a hurry once triage becomes the way to save the most people.

 

[Wreckem]

Everything else being equal, why would it peak at all short of herd immunity? Texas currently has about 5000 new cases per day nearly doubling every week. Maintaining that trajectory, they'll have 20K new cases per day 2 weeks from now, 80K new cases per day in a month. But, you know, the important thing is to keep Trump happy & give him 4 more glorious years. Oh, yeh. Oh, Baby!

The model assumes social distancing and masks. I should have noted that because that’s not happening. That’s the best case scenario, peaking in mid July.

Same model has expert saying Houston in the next Brazil unless the trajectory changes.

 

[ElFenix]

Herd immunity is somewhere north of half the total population recovered or dead.

the definition of herd immunity is when R drops below 1, and it depends on the naught reproduction ratio. it could be anywhere fro 29 to 74% for covid. for measles, because Rnaught is so high, the herd immunity figure is 92-95%. for the flu, it's only 33-44%.

 

[eelw]

Such intelligent comments from Karens on vote for mandatory mask wearing

Link

 

[Jhhnn]

the definition of herd immunity is when R drops below 1, and it depends on the naught reproduction ratio. it could be anywhere fro 29 to 74% for covid. for measles, because Rnaught is so high, the herd immunity figure is 92-95%. for the flu, it's only 33-44%.

Given the rapid rate of increase in new cases it's clear that the virus is easily transmissible so the high end of that seems likely. The midpoint of your own cone of uncertainty is 51.5%.

 

[UNCjigga]

Florida Man takes the day off—sends Florida Woman to confront the city council:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275912010555932672

 

[hal2kilo]

Given the rapid rate of increase in new cases it's clear that the virus is easily transmissible so the high end of that seems likely. The midpoint of your own cone of uncertainty is 51.5%.

Remember when the response to this was send in the ships and build temporary hospitals in soccer fields. Unfortunately, for the most part, those states also shut everything down and had strict mask rules so they bent the curve. So the states that have done nothing are absolutely going to need those kinds of resources real damn soon. Crickets, from the admin, and those pathetic state admins. I guess it would be an insult to Trump, to ask for those resources, so just wait for the digging of graves.
Meanwhile Pence had a nice little lunch with the Republican senators and essentially told them to put out HAPPY TALK.
Oh yea, I almost forgot, Pence happens to be in charge of the COVID-19 Task Force.

 

[brycejones]

Florida Man takes the day off—sends Florida Woman to confront the city council:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275912010555932672

Fucking Alex Jones. I’d lay money on this deluded woman having an infowars sticker on her vehicle.

 

[Ichinisan]

Coworkers in Gwinnett county Georgia report the exact opposite. Since last month I have been teasing them that they should write me into their wills and leave me their cool stuff when they die.

Packed breweries and restaurants. Very little attempts at social distancing. Constant parties and groups of kids roaming the street.

For restaurants that let you dine-in, I saw a Chick-fil-A in Carrollton with a sign that said "dine-in open." Also a Captain D's location in Riverdale.

Two of the Waffle House locations around town are open 24/7 again. Some other Waffle House locations around my town are closed.

 

[Jhhnn]

Fucking Alex Jones. I’d lay money on this deluded woman having an infowars sticker on her vehicle.

Rush on the radio. Televangelists on the TeeVee. And a facebook group just as nutty as she is.

 

[Wreckem]

Florida Man takes the day off—sends Florida Woman to confront the city council:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275912010555932672

That’s nothing. You should have heard all the stupidity of public comments during the Orange County hearings on reopening the theme parks... good lord I felt our country was doomed listening to those whackos making public comments.

 

[woolfe9998]

Florida Man takes the day off—sends Florida Woman to confront the city council:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275912010555932672

LOl that was hilarious. She thinks everyone else needs to be in a "psych ward" haha.

 

[Jhhnn]

That’s nothing. You should have heard all the stupidity of public comments during the Orange County hearings on reopening the theme parks... good lord I felt our country was doomed listening to those whackos making public comments.

Hell- we gotcher whackaloos from sea to shining sea & countless strong influencers messing with their minds for a variety of purposes. I hope you don't think people get that crazy just by accident. They're generally not imaginative enough to dream it up on their own.

 

[Puffnstuff]

I'm positive that Trump calls this winning!

 

[brycejones]

Florida Man takes the day off—sends Florida Woman to confront the city council:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1275912010555932672

We shouldn’t be so harsh because according to one poster here her views are just as valid and good as anyone else’s because she followed the rules.

 

[SMOGZINN]

the definition of herd immunity is when R drops below 1, and it depends on the naught reproduction ratio. it could be anywhere fro 29 to 74% for covid. for measles, because Rnaught is so high, the herd immunity figure is 92-95%. for the flu, it's only 33-44%.

This all assumes that there even is a herd immunity for COVID19. The truth is we have seen little evidence that having had the virus imbues any long term immunity to it. We are seeing multiple reports from researchers that immunity is light and lasts only a few months before reinfection is possible again, and it looks like the immunity granted is at least somewhat connected to how severe the case is, so it could be the case that asymptomatic cases confer no real immunity while the ones hospitalized do.

One of the real problems here is that we really don't know that much yet. We are a civilization that thinks 2 months is forever, but science still needs years to do proper research.

 

[fskimospy]

This all assumes that there even is a herd immunity for COVID19. The truth is we have seen little evidence that having had the virus imbues any long term immunity to it. We are seeing multiple reports from researchers that immunity is light and lasts only a few months before reinfection is possible again, and it looks like the immunity granted is at least somewhat connected to how sever the case is, so it could be the case that asymptomatic cases confer no real immunity.

One of the real problems here is that we really don't know that much yet. We are a civilization that thinks 2 months is forever, but science still needs years to do proper research.

We don't know that much yet but the research generally indicates immunity is likely to last at least about a year and possibly much longer. There is some outlier research that indicates it might last much less but it's important to note that they are just that, outliers.

 

[SMOGZINN]

We don't know that much yet but the research generally indicates immunity is likely to last at least about a year and possibly much longer. There is some outlier research that indicates it might last much less but it's important to note that they are just that, outliers.

I might have over emphasized that, my point is not that there is no herd immunity, it is that we are still a long way from knowing what a herd immunity is going to look like.
This sort of research takes a lot of time. These are by necessity longitudinal studies. We won't have any real useful data for a year or more yet, and then it will take most of another year to get it peer reviewed. My real point it that it is a mistake to look at these very tentative findings, based on just a handful of data points, and put any weight into them.

 

[kage69]

Mask ain't nuthin' but a face diaper.

Please let this be satire.

Given the amount of ignorant shit that spews from trumpet mouths, it is wonderfully ironic though.

Face mask = crimes against Constitution and humanity. Not to mention the feels! To hell with people dying, what about conservative feelings?!

 

[CZroe]

LOl that was hilarious. She thinks everyone else needs to be in a "psych ward" haha.

...like the oblivious guy everyone avoids for his "stank breaf." First thing he says in any confrontation is "Back off! Get away from me. Yo breaf stank." to rile someone up.

Dude didn't realize the people he learned that behavior from were telling the truth and not just trying to rile him up.

 

[CZroe]

Here in GA, I still don't know anyone who has it.

Many restaurants still haven't opened dining rooms. Some stores require a face covering. Many stores measure temperature at the entrance. All stores limit occupancy. Hand sanitizer is available at most public places. Many public restrooms are closed.

...markings 6ft apart on the floor, plexiglass barriers erected at many registers, remote payment terminals at many registers, curbside service at many places that never offered it before, and on and on.

Went to Subway yesterday and two of the three employees were wearing their masks wrong (under their noses). Ugh! They're preparing food, FFS. Admittedly, I was more concerned with the family in front of me since they were spread out too much to maintain 6ft and the teenage daughter kept coughing.

Also, Ichinisan, you do know someone who had it early although we haven't seen her in about 15 years. It was on Facebook back in March. She got it from church pre-lockdown so obviously not related to Georgia reopening.