Anyone here think McCain will actually win?

[GoingUp]

Heard from a guy in my office today who was predicting a McCain win by 5 points due to poll numbers supposedly being bogus and such. I told him I thought he was crazy. Even my hardcore republican friends think Obama's going to win.

Never underestimate the Dem's talent at losing an election I guess. We shall see on Tuesday.

One of the other points he made was that GWB was down to Kerry by 8 points going into Election day. Anyone know if thats true or if he's full of it?

 

[XZeroII]

I hope they both lose. I would rather have no president than either of these clowns. I saw we nominate a bag of lettuce. All it will cost us is a new refrigerator in the oval office and disposal and cleanup fees after 4 years.

 

[aphex]

Never underestimate the stupidity of Americans, after all, they elected Bush in twice :beer:

 

[Farang]

The 2004 election was called as perfectly as it could be, exit polls aside. This year's election seems more difficult to predict, but in my opinion most of the unpredictability goes in Obama's favor (black turnout, young turnout, superior organization, etc.)

 

[Hugh H]

Originally posted by: Gobadgrs
Heard from a guy in my office today who was predicting a McCain win by 5 points due to poll numbers supposedly being bogus and such. I told him I thought he was crazy. Even my hardcore republican friends think Obama's going to win.

Never underestimate the Dem's talent at losing an election I guess. We shall see on Tuesday.

One of the other points he made was that GWB was down to Kerry by 8 points going into Election day. Anyone know if thats true or if he's full of it?

I say he is full of it, unless he can show you the poll. It definitely wasn't Gallup or any other reputable pollster.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: aphex
Never underestimate the stupidity of Americans,

after all, they elected Bush in twice :beer:

Bolded for Truth

 

[Double Trouble]

The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

 

[CellarDoor]

Kerry was definitely not ahead by 8 points going into election day. The average of the polls going into election day was pretty much dead on if i remember correctly.

 

[aphex]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama

 

[First]

No one intelligent.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Yaknow, I bet I could find a dmcowen674 post from 2004 identical to this one in nearly every way except it says Bush instead of Obama, and Kerry instead of McCain.

And Kerry was behind in the polls going into election day.

 

[Baked]

I voted for McCain/Palin for 4 more years of Tina Fey as Sarah Palin!

Just kidding.

 

[Balt]

A couple of weeks ago I still thought he might pull it off. I expected the race to tighten more than it has.

I'd say he's still got a shot, but he's on defense in so many states right now it's a really long shot.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Gobadgrs
Heard from a guy in my office today who was predicting a McCain win by 5 points due to poll numbers supposedly being bogus and such. I told him I thought he was crazy. Even my hardcore republican friends think Obama's going to win.

Never underestimate the Dem's talent at losing an election I guess. We shall see on Tuesday.

One of the other points he made was that GWB was down to Kerry by 8 points going into Election day. Anyone know if thats true or if he's full of it?

For your friend, all from RCP:

2004 final poll average, Bush was 1.5 points up going into election day.

2004 poll graph. Your friend had it backwards, it was Kerry who was trying to come back from 8+ points behind in the last 2 months.

2004 electoral projection map, based on statewide polls going into election day, Bush was up 296-242.

Final results, Bush wins 286-251 electoral, and the popular by 2.4 points.

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: aphex

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone voting for Obama is dumb, that's certainly not the case, I'm just saying the damage McCain could do while in office is limited by the democratic congress. The damage Obama could do is essentially unlimited.

 

[Alistar7]

Obama had a 2 point lead the day before the Ohio primary and lost by 10. A 12 point swing from the polls to the acutal vote count in one day.

I hope it's a clear win by either candidate, I don't want to see another fiasco like in 2000. Let's go back to the old days and make the losing candidate the VP.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble

Originally posted by: aphex

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone voting for Obama is dumb, that's certainly not the case, I'm just saying the damage McCain could do while in office is limited by the democratic congress. The damage Obama could do is essentially unlimited.

That argument would be a lot more convincing if Republicans hadn't spent several years trying to gain complete control of the government, then fucking us all over once they got there. Honestly I think they deserve to take a backseat for a few years. If Democrats screw up their chance like the Republicans did, well then the voters are a scant few years away from trying to fix the situation. But I'll be damned if I'm going to base my vote on some rules that the other guys refuse to follow.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Alistar7
Obama had a 2 point lead the day before the Ohio primary and lost by 10. A 12 point swing from the polls to the acutal vote count in one day.

I hope it's a clear win by either candidate, I don't want to see another fiasco like in 2000. Let's go back to the old days and make the losing candidate the VP.

Those old days haven't been since Burr shot Hamilton in a duel.

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Double Trouble

Originally posted by: aphex

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone voting for Obama is dumb, that's certainly not the case, I'm just saying the damage McCain could do while in office is limited by the democratic congress. The damage Obama could do is essentially unlimited.

That argument would be a lot more convincing if Republicans hadn't spent several years trying to gain complete control of the government, then fucking us all over once they got there. Honestly I think they deserve to take a backseat for a few years. If Democrats screw up their chance like the Republicans did, well then the voters are a scant few years away from trying to fix the situation. But I'll be damned if I'm going to base my vote on some rules that the other guys refuse to follow.

Duuuuh, of course the republicans tried to gain control of government, that's what the parties do, they fight for more power for themselves. No matter what you think of the republicans or the democrats, you simply can't deny (at least not with any credibility) that McCain's actions would be more limited by congress than Obama. If Obama turns out to be a bad president, he could end up hurting the US as much as Bush has. McCain's "downside" is limited.

 

[bozack]

Originally posted by: aphex
Never underestimate the stupidity of Americans, after all, they elected Bush in twice :beer:

Yup, which is why they will most likely vote in Obama

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Duuuuh, of course the republicans tried to gain control of government, that's what the parties do, they fight for more power for themselves. No matter what you think of the republicans or the democrats, you simply can't deny (at least not with any credibility) that McCain's actions would be more limited by congress than Obama. If Obama turns out to be a bad president, he could end up hurting the US as much as Bush has. McCain's "downside" is limited.

With Palin as his VP?

No.

 

[jpeyton]

Individual polls can be wrong, but we're not seeing one or two polls going for Obama.

In fact, the rate of new polling in October 2008 ALONE is likely to outpace the polling in the entire 2004 Presidential election.

What we're seeing on a day after day basis is 40+ new daily polls coming out all showing Obama with a clear lead.

Obama has held onto a 5 point advantage SOLIDLY since the second debate ended. RCP and other sites actually show him up by 6-7 points, but by election day it will tighten down to 5.

5 points in the popular vote means 350+ electoral votes.

Since you only need 270 to win, that 80 EV cushion is Obama's firewall. That's why people are expecting him to win.

At best, towards the end of October 2004, Kerry was up in the polls enough to carry 280-290 EV.

Obama is way ahead of Kerry. He's out-performing Kerry in Kerry-states by 5-15 points, and he's +/- 1-5 points in states that Bush won handily.

What's very telling about the last four days before the election is that McCain and Palin will largely spend it stumping in reliable red states. If McCain is busy defending Missouri and North Carolina, he's in deep shit and he knows it.

With all that said, I'm still hoping the media will predictably make a horse-race out of this, so Obama supporters will turn out in record numbers as expected.

 

[ProfJohn]

McCain could win, but it would take a miracle.

The problem for McCain is even if he takes Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada he still losses due to the possible loss of Virginia and loss of Colorado.

McCain really needs to win PA and that is asking for a LOT.

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Duuuuh, of course the republicans tried to gain control of government, that's what the parties do, they fight for more power for themselves. No matter what you think of the republicans or the democrats, you simply can't deny (at least not with any credibility) that McCain's actions would be more limited by congress than Obama. If Obama turns out to be a bad president, he could end up hurting the US as much as Bush has. McCain's "downside" is limited.

With Palin as his VP?

No.

Yes, even with Palin. Even if -- gasp -- something would happen with (president) McCain, Palin would still be effectively reigned in by a strong opposition congress. There is no limit to the damage Obama can do with free reign.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: Double Trouble

Originally posted by: aphex

Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone voting for Obama is dumb, that's certainly not the case, I'm just saying the damage McCain could do while in office is limited by the democratic congress. The damage Obama could do is essentially unlimited.

I take it you voted for Kerry in 2004, then?