Anyone here think McCain will actually win?

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Double Trouble

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
9,270
103
106
Originally posted by: JSt0rm01
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Obama on the other hand could nominate a complete idiot (think "Harriet Myers" level), and the congress would allow it. We'd be stuck with the idiot for 30 years. Another argument for voting McCain.

Harriet Myers was picked so as not to piss off the females when bush removed the only female on the court. He needed a loyal dog who would never make it so he could put his real guy in there.

Interesting theory. Bush "removed the only female"? How'd he do that, he must be more clever than I give him credit for. Either way, it's besides the point. The point is McCain would need to nominate someone of substance who was not an ideological right-winger, while Obama could appoint anyone with a congressional rubber stamp.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,163
136
Is the American public really that flakey?
I mean, polls are dead even one week, then something happens,
and the following week someone is 15 points ahead. They something
else happens, and its back to dead even.
I have never changed from Obama since Hillary lost out.
Many have solidly been backing Mccain, even after picking Palin or support from
republicans like Powell.
Who are these voters that flip flop from day to day, week to week?
How do these people ever made any decisions? Should I have a pepsi or coke, coke or pepsi, pepsi or coke, coke or pepsi etc etc????
Are they the same people that are still undecided with only a few days to go?
Pleaseeeeeee!!!!
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Some people who a) are delusional and hopelessly prejudiced to think that the world can shape itself to their wishes simply by wishing it, and b) completely oblivious to the news, may think that McCain has a shot. He doesn't. It's over. His chances of winning are about as likely as me getting a 3-point shot from the complete other end of the court.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
6,656
32
91
Originally posted by: cubby1223
Originally posted by: rockyct
McCain could do some serious damage to the Supreme court if he were to win. The court has a lean to the right currently, but there are some liberal judges who are getting up there in age (Stevens is 88). Obama will nominate liberal judges, but unless something unexpected happens, he's not going to replace any conservative judges.

And the democratic controlled senate approves or disapproves of any McCain pick for the court. If you think McCain is going to do "serious damage", your prospective is way off...

McCain definitely has a chance of winning election day. A chance. *All* the cards were lined up for a democrat to sweep this election in a landslide. The latest polls of likely voters have Obama ahead by, I think it's down below 5 points. As much as I admire Obama's vision, I do not for a second believe the government can achieve it. We just saw both political parties equally responsible in the failure to prevent this economic crisis - and now we're going to elect a president who wants to shift vastly *more* financial responsibilities to the government? :roll:

You guys have to think before voting.

There is no way that McCain would ever pick a liberal judge to replace a liberal judge. A Democratic contolled Senate can only reject so many nominations before the public gets frustraited. McCain would probably nominate a strong conservative judge first to appease conservatives and like a sheep to the slaughter he would get rejected. Then, he would nominate a moderate judge with a slight conservative tilt and the Democrats would be forced into confirming him. The balance of the court will tilt even more to the right as a liberal judge will be replaced by a moderate conservative.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: Gobadgrs
Heard from a guy in my office today who was predicting a McCain win by 5 points due to poll numbers supposedly being bogus and such. I told him I thought he was crazy. Even my hardcore republican friends think Obama's going to win.

Never underestimate the Dem's talent at losing an election I guess. We shall see on Tuesday.

One of the other points he made was that GWB was down to Kerry by 8 points going into Election day. Anyone know if thats true or if he's full of it?

If he is basing his conclusion on the inaccuracy of the polls you should inform him that one of the primary inaccuracies is that the majority of them place little to no consideration on first time voters. Most of which are younger and fit the exact demographic that supports Obama the most. If the polls are inaccurate it is because they are underestimating how great of a chance Obama has at winning especially when one considers the much greater turn out of young voters actually going to the polls and voting this election already.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
6,656
32
91
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Originally posted by: rockyct
McCain could do some serious damage to the Supreme court if he were to win. The court has a lean to the right currently, but there are some liberal judges who are getting up there in age (Stevens is 88). Obama will nominate liberal judges, but unless something unexpected happens, he's not going to replace any conservative judges.

Nope. McCain cannot appoint anyone to the court with the OK from the senate, and you'd better believe the senate is not going to roll over if he appoints some right winger. Obama on the other hand could nominate a complete idiot (think "Harriet Myers" level), and the congress would allow it. We'd be stuck with the idiot for 30 years. Another argument for voting McCain.

Obama was a Constitutional law professor. He is not going to nominate a non-traditional nominee or someone like Hillary Clinton whose name has been thrown around. Obama will have 58-60 Democrats in the Senate but a lot of those Senators are in conservative states. They aren't going to rubber stamp a far left liberal nominee or someone who is clearly unqualified. Harriot Myers was clearly unqualified and conservatives were in an uproar about her almost as much as liberals were. Obama will nominate a liberal, but it will be one that is well qualified.
 

JDub02

Diamond Member
Sep 27, 2002
6,209
1
0
Originally posted by: XZeroII
I hope they both lose. I would rather have no president than either of these clowns. I saw we nominate a bag of lettuce. All it will cost us is a new refrigerator in the oval office and disposal and cleanup fees after 4 years.

That's the best idea I've heard in a long time.

Lettuce/Tomato 2008!!!!!!!!
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: JDub02
Originally posted by: XZeroII
I hope they both lose. I would rather have no president than either of these clowns. I saw we nominate a bag of lettuce. All it will cost us is a new refrigerator in the oval office and disposal and cleanup fees after 4 years.

That's the best idea I've heard in a long time.

Lettuce/Tomato 2008!!!!!!!!

Can we add some mayonnaise too or do we need to cut the fat?

I am so clever! :D
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,901
10,231
136
Originally posted by: Gobadgrs
Topic: Anyone here think McCain will actually win?

Since 2001 I have believed our education system would have had enough impact to enforce a solid Democratic majority beyond 2008. Of course, I never expected the Democratic Party to challenge this control by picking a very left leaning black man to lead their ticket. If you gave us a second Bill Clinton you'd never even have to ask who the next President would be.

Who knows, Obama could drive away racists, could drive away some moderates, but he could also energize the base in a way I did not imagine.

I expect Obama to be our next President. I expect the Republican party to continue to embrace government as the solution to all our problems just as the 80s Democrats did. Every time they lose they move closer towards embracing the ideals that defeated them. The country continues to slide, as it has since the New Deal, towards Karl Marx's manifesto.

It is my prediction that nothing will prevent this slide and the fermenting of an abusive centralized government. I laugh when Democrats complain about the Patriot Act and wiretapping while they continue to work towards the centralization of power in this nation.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,993
10,266
136
If McCain wins I'm going to look into my options for moving to another country, becoming a citizen there. Maybe Canada, Australia, a European country. I will find it hard to consider the USA a civilized nation.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,993
10,266
136
Originally posted by: Farang
The 2004 election was called as perfectly as it could be, exit polls aside. This year's election seems more difficult to predict, but in my opinion most of the unpredictability goes in Obama's favor (black turnout, young turnout, superior organization, etc.)

... and the fact that every election that occurred during a recession since 1900 has gone to the opposing party to the one in office.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,993
10,266
136
Originally posted by: aphex
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama ;)

QFT
 

OutHouse

Lifer
Jun 5, 2000
36,410
616
126
Originally posted by: Muse
If McCain wins I'm going to look into my options for moving to another country, becoming a citizen there. Maybe Canada, Australia, a European country. I will find it hard to consider the USA a civilized nation.

yea sure you will.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,993
10,266
136
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Duuuuh, of course the republicans tried to gain control of government, that's what the parties do, they fight for more power for themselves. No matter what you think of the republicans or the democrats, you simply can't deny (at least not with any credibility) that McCain's actions would be more limited by congress than Obama. If Obama turns out to be a bad president, he could end up hurting the US as much as Bush has. McCain's "downside" is limited.

With Palin as his VP?

No.

Yes, even with Palin. Even if -- gasp -- something would happen with (president) McCain, Palin would still be effectively reigned in by a strong opposition congress. There is no limit to the damage Obama can do with free reign.

What you ignore is that Obama is not inclined to inflict damage. His intentions are positive. He's got the better temperament by a mile.
 

daniel49

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2005
4,814
0
71
Originally posted by: Gobadgrs
Heard from a guy in my office today who was predicting a McCain win by 5 points due to poll numbers supposedly being bogus and such. I told him I thought he was crazy. Even my hardcore republican friends think Obama's going to win.

Never underestimate the Dem's talent at losing an election I guess. We shall see on Tuesday.

One of the other points he made was that GWB was down to Kerry by 8 points going into Election day. Anyone know if thats true or if he's full of it?


that would appear to be false.
Text
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,993
10,266
136
Originally posted by: Citrix
Originally posted by: Muse
If McCain wins I'm going to look into my options for moving to another country, becoming a citizen there. Maybe Canada, Australia, a European country. I will find it hard to consider the USA a civilized nation.

yea sure you will.

I didn't say I'd move. I said I'd "look into" it. You better believe it.
 

m1ldslide1

Platinum Member
Feb 20, 2006
2,321
0
0
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Originally posted by: Rainsford
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
Originally posted by: aphex
Originally posted by: Double Trouble
The American public is generally stupid, so I think Obama will win. I know enough about the potential pitfalls of polling that I think it's possible that McCain can win, but not very likely.

Well in my view, the stupid ones aren't the ones voting Obama ;)

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying anyone voting for Obama is dumb, that's certainly not the case, I'm just saying the damage McCain could do while in office is limited by the democratic congress. The damage Obama could do is essentially unlimited.

That argument would be a lot more convincing if Republicans hadn't spent several years trying to gain complete control of the government, then fucking us all over once they got there. Honestly I think they deserve to take a backseat for a few years. If Democrats screw up their chance like the Republicans did, well then the voters are a scant few years away from trying to fix the situation. But I'll be damned if I'm going to base my vote on some rules that the other guys refuse to follow.

Duuuuh, of course the republicans tried to gain control of government, that's what the parties do, they fight for more power for themselves. No matter what you think of the republicans or the democrats, you simply can't deny (at least not with any credibility) that McCain's actions would be more limited by congress than Obama. If Obama turns out to be a bad president, he could end up hurting the US as much as Bush has. McCain's "downside" is limited.

In re: McCain's downside, I think you're forgetting his ability to wage war and his ability to kick the bucket during his term. Both would be disastrous and have unprecedented negative ramifications.
 

m1ldslide1

Platinum Member
Feb 20, 2006
2,321
0
0
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Jack Daniels will win. I think I'll be drinking hard liquor for the first time in five years or so on election night. America loses either way. :disgust::(

Really? If America loses when you drink whiskey, I'd imagine you are one mean drunk.
 

MikeyLSU

Platinum Member
Dec 21, 2005
2,747
0
71
Originally posted by: Muse
Originally posted by: Citrix
Originally posted by: Muse
If McCain wins I'm going to look into my options for moving to another country, becoming a citizen there. Maybe Canada, Australia, a European country. I will find it hard to consider the USA a civilized nation.

yea sure you will.

I didn't say I'd move. I said I'd "look into" it. You better believe it.

do you know how many people said they were moving if Bush won in 2000, then said it again in 2004?

Plenty of hollywood types said it and are still here. Plenty of Americans said it and are still here...
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
as far as i've read, the best predictions of presidential elections has been on futures markets, such as the one from the university of iowa.. it's been pretty accurate from its inception in the '80s with the theory being that people are using their own money betting on who will win, rather than who they want to win.
 

Corbett

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2005
3,074
0
76
Originally posted by: Muse
Originally posted by: Citrix
Originally posted by: Muse
If McCain wins I'm going to look into my options for moving to another country, becoming a citizen there. Maybe Canada, Australia, a European country. I will find it hard to consider the USA a civilized nation.

yea sure you will.

I didn't say I'd move. I said I'd "look into" it. You better believe it.

Way to back out of that one!