Anybody watching NJ and VA?

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HomerJS

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
39,349
32,852
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I'm looking. Republicans gaining ground on phony cultural issues like CRT which is not being taught in school districts or banning books that teach this countries real history.

GOP are marketing geniuses
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,963
55,354
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Could be, although the exact same thing happened in Virginia in 2017 where the polls had the results as within about 3 points and Northam won by like 9.

Perhaps methodology has improved since then and they are more accurate but it's something to keep in mind.
 
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soundforbjt

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
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VA will be a interesting race. If a trumper masquerading as a Romney, wins...it gives republicans a blueprint for the midterms and beyond.
 
E

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,824
1,583
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HomerJS said:
I'm looking. Republicans gaining ground on phony cultural issues like CRT which is not being taught in school districts or banning books that teach this countries real history.

GOP are marketing geniuses
Click to expand...

They are, but moreso that they understand they have a mountain of voices promoting their "marketing" or "propaganda". That combined with how the main stream media likes to report on "both sides". It's amazed me that the Dems are going after Facebook over Fox News. Shows how scared of Fox News they really are.
 
hal2kilo

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
26,057
12,277
136
I just don't know. The bluest part of the state is suffering from their football team just being called the Washington football team, so I would not be surprised that a lot of on the fence moderate males have an axe to grind. Good luck Terry you hack. (That's the actual problem).
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,639
46,333
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soundforbjt said:
VA will be a interesting race. If a trumper masquerading as a Romney, wins...it gives republicans a blueprint for the midterms and beyond.
Click to expand...

This presumes Trump essentially stays invisible for the next three years solid. Seems like a lot to ask of him.
 
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K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,639
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fskimospy said:
Could be, although the exact same thing happened in Virginia in 2017 where the polls had the results as within about 3 points and Northam won by like 9.

Perhaps methodology has improved since then and they are more accurate but it's something to keep in mind.
Click to expand...

Yeah we're in big shrug territory here no different than 17. Polling averages narrowed as LVs became the model but who's to say pollsters have the right screens one way or the other?

I've got no defensible idea what's going to happen but if I was a gambling man I say TMac by 3-4 points.
 
soundforbjt

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,788
6,041
136
K1052 said:
This presumes Trump essentially stays invisible for the next three years solid. Seems like a lot to ask of him.
Click to expand...
They’ll dump trump if this works out for them and they’ll give trump some role to keep him and his cult followers happy...remember they’re easily guided.
 
A

Amol S.

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,577
780
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HomerJS said:
I'm looking. Republicans gaining ground on phony cultural issues like CRT which is not being taught in school districts or banning books that teach this countries real history.

GOP are marketing geniuses
Click to expand...
You also forgot about books that make sexual references, are underscruitny from parents who are asking for it to be banned from schools.
 
nakedfrog

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
62,785
18,976
136
HomerJS said:
I'm looking. Republicans gaining ground on phony cultural issues like CRT which is not being taught in school districts or banning books that teach this countries real history.

GOP are marketing geniuses
Click to expand...
TBF, it's not that hard to market to a crowd that's demonstrated an insatiable appetite for unfettered bullshit.
 
U

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,632
3,045
136
fskimospy said:
Could be, although the exact same thing happened in Virginia in 2017 where the polls had the results as within about 3 points and Northam won by like 9.

Perhaps methodology has improved since then and they are more accurate but it's something to keep in mind.
Click to expand...
See: Newsom recall.
 
A

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,114
136
HomerJS said:
I'm looking. Republicans gaining ground on phony cultural issues like CRT which is not being taught in school districts or banning books that teach this countries real history.

GOP are marketing geniuses
Click to expand...
The GOP invented the Facebook algorithm we've heard so much about lately. Facebook just figured out how to monetize it rather than use it for getting votes.
 
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sportage

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,163
136
Ok... Ok.... Lets give it all to the republicans. Give then full government control. Give them back their Trump, give them the house, give them the senate, and give them every governorship in every state. Lets give them all that Mitch McConnell dreams about. Oh, and lets give them more of the US Supreme Court while we're at it. Then, lets just see how the republican population feels in, oh say in about five or ten years.

When was the last time the people gave one party everything they wanted? Could it have been in 1932 Germany? Are we repeating 1932 Germany? Are we about to repeat 1932 Germany? Lets redo 1932 Germany and see how that goes for America.
 
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A

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,114
136
sportage said:
Ok... Ok.... Lets give it all to the republicans. Give then full government control. Give them back their Trump, give them the house, give them the senate, and give them every governorship in every state. Lets give them all that Mitch McConnell dreams about. Oh, and lets give them more of the US Supreme Court while we're at it. Then, lets just see how the republican population feels in, oh say in about five or ten years.

When was the last time the people gave one party everything they wanted? Could it have been in 1932 Germany? Are we repeating 1932 Germany? Are we about to repeat 1932 Germany? Lets redo 1932 Germany and see how that goes for America.
Click to expand...
Swell. The EU is going to love the mass applications for work VISAs from sane people fleeing the US.
 
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K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,639
46,333
136
If any Dems want to engage in some quality pants loading here you go:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453852517834666003

The LV screen models an R+1 electorate which...is something in a D+10 state. It's really hard to model low turnout off year elections. They didn't get it close in 2017 I'm not sure they are now. Who's gonna win? I still favor Tmac but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
A

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,114
136
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

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Uncomfortable narrowing. If Democrats don't pull off the two pending bills, what the heck are they going to run on?
 
G

gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,456
2,399
136
Youngkin now leading in most polls, in a state that Biden won by 10 points. Not a good look for 2022 and beyond, but with many GOP state legislatures, it doesn't even matter. We already know the results.
 
K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,639
46,333
136
gothuevos said:
Youngkin now leading in most polls, in a state that Biden won by 10 points. Not a good look for 2022 and beyond, but with many GOP state legislatures, it doesn't even matter. We already know the results.
Click to expand...

It's more complicated than that. Newsom beat the recall by his original margin and everybody was calling that the harbinger of 2022 until it wasn't because the GOP face planted.

Candidates and campaigns matter and few people are going to say anything good about how TMac has performed.
 
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gothuevos

Diamond Member
Jul 28, 2010
3,456
2,399
136
K1052 said:
It's more complicated than that. Newsom beat the recall by his original margin and everybody was calling that the harbinger of 2022 until it wasn't because the GOP face planted.

Candidates and campaigns matter and few people are going to say anything good about how TMac has performed.
Click to expand...

You think TMac ran a poor campaign? Was it the parents and education comment?
 
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