Collusion is rather hard to prove isnt it? If 1 major DRAM manufacturer lowered their price, others would have to oblige, otherwise they wouldnt be selling any DRAM.
Leave that to the lawyers. There's apparently evidence that it happened.
But the most important thing: Buy or Sell RMBS now?
If you mean from an "investment strategy", I'd wait for a few things to happen.
First off, the FTC case could go either way.
If the FTC grants Rambus summary judgement based on the proof they've presented in their pre-trial motions, their stock will shoot up to 20-30 overnight since the fight is essentially over.
Of course, the FTC could reject every legal precedent and evidence that Rambus has presented during the pre-trial motions, and eventually rule against Rambus. If the summary motion isn't granted by the ALJ, you can be 100% sure that Rambus will lose. Should this happen, the stock will likely tank to 5, and THAT'S when you should buy. Since the CAFC will wind up with another Rambus case that has prior precedents set, the verdict will be overturned practically overnight.
Thus far in the preliminary motions phase, the FTC has been denied both requests (the first to grant a summary default judgement against Rambus, the 2nd to
depose Richard Crisp, who they claim is a key witness in this case.
Rambus recently
admitted evidence showing that Mitsubishi Electronics (MELCO) brought up the fact that SDRAM was infringing on Rambus' 1990 patents, and that the panel members chose to ignore it and try to force Rambus to make it public domain. They also provided proof that all the companies who are not paying royalties today all signed NDA's with regards to Rambus technology back in 1990, well before they were invited to JEDEC.
The bottom line is that no reasonable person could find Rambus guilty of anything. If this judge doesn't dismiss this case (or if the FTC doesn't drop theirs), Rambus will lose regardless of how long the trial takes. It will be clear that the judge is crooked. We'll see how it all pans out.
Another thing to watch for is the Infineon 'en banc' ruling. Most (over 90%) en banc rulings are denied UNLESS serious legal errors have been made. Infineon hasn't made any claims to that effect, so there's nothing to even suggest that en banc will even be granted. If En Banc is granted, then the entire reversal will be reviewed by the ENTIRE CAFC panel of 9 judges, which would take a few more months.
If en banc is NOT granted, then Infineon has a big decision to make. They can go back to the lower court against Rambus and go back to trial in virginia - however by doing so, the CAFC precedent stands, meaning Rambus can't be found guilty of Fraud, and their patents are deemed 100% valid...
OR they can settle. It's likely they would settle, since losing at this point would mean paying back royalties, PLUS legal fees covering the original trial (7.5 million), the CAFC proceedings (undisclosed) and the NEW trial, whatever fees they rack up.
