Does the fact that they only project through sunday PM imply that the storm will peter out at that point, or that there just isn't wnough data?
The further and further the computer models to out the less "accurate" they become. This is especially true with hurricanes although they've improved their forecasting by leaps and bounds the last few years. That's just too far ahead to accurately forecast. Btw, based on the tone of that discussion it seems like they are coming to realize this thing is going to be terrible disaster wherever it hits.
Good fvcking lord, I must be the unluckiest fvck here in Florida.
I was planning to move to Cali end of July.
I prosponed that to go on vacation with my family.
Then I got back just in time to Charlie...went 6 freakin days without electricity.
So my leaving date for Cali got pushed back a little further.
As I'm prepared to leave Sept 13 and I'm gonna get hit by another hurricane before I go ???
Arghh....I can't take another hurricane.
I was planning to move to Cali end of July.
I prosponed that to go on vacation with my family.
Then I got back just in time to Charlie...went 6 freakin days without electricity.
So my leaving date for Cali got pushed back a little further.
As I'm prepared to leave Sept 13 and I'm gonna get hit by another hurricane before I go ???
Arghh....I can't take another hurricane.
Originally posted by: Vortex22
As of right now, the paths of Charley and Frances make a big fat X directly over my house.
YEP!
First, it's gonna hit my office, we are in Melbourne right by Patrick Airforce Base. So everyone here is freaking out and the base is locking down. We are about to start that.
Then Frances is gonna visit my apartment in Orlando!
I just love it, I was supposed to go to the Clemson game in South Carolina this weekend...doesn't look like we are going now. Oh well, but this gives me a reason to throw a hurricane party. PARTY AT MY PLACE!
Originally posted by: cashman
Oh well, but this gives me a reason to throw a hurricane party. PARTY AT MY PLACE!
So we can all get blown away?
I'll happily stay here in sunny Connecticut where it's supposed to be absolutely gorgeous through Labor Day.
- Aug 22, 2001
- 32,074
- 32,600
- 146
Sick minds think a like :beer: It'll hop on the ridge just like Floyd and we'll dodge another bullet here in Cocoa Beach. the swell is starting to fill in through today so it should be a great session this evening with any luck.
planning to get my ass beat down in orlando this saturday
got the 420 head of time this hurricane though
oh yeah and gas and water + candles
got the 420 head of time this hurricane though
oh yeah and gas and water + candles
Originally posted by: BostonRedSox
Originally posted by: cashman
Oh well, but this gives me a reason to throw a hurricane party. PARTY AT MY PLACE!
So we can all get blown away?
I'll happily stay here in sunny Connecticut where it's supposed to be absolutely gorgeous through Labor Day.
You do that.
I will be, on the other hand, will be having a party with the three apartments right by us, I got a couple cals already from some people asking about this.
I used to watch the weather channel for fun too..
Watching the hurricanes form and trek across the atlanticwas a highlight of my late summer/fall.. I was just saying that the meteorologists have a little more data and knowledge to work with.
apoppin
Lifer
- Aug 22, 2001
- 32,074
- 32,600
- 146
LOL, it doesn't matter where you live, it's always something. The guy from Connecticut must have forgotten that while they have snow storms and white outs I'm still skinning it in late fall surfOriginally posted by: apoppin
SoCal has a prediction for a MAJOR quake THIS month.
:roll:
I'll take a hurricane over a winter in Connecticut anytime. Particularlly since I've been here 38yrs *my whole life* and I've yet to see a bad one hit us here in the Cocoa Beach area, though this one could do the trick :light:The models have shifted a little north of where they were predicting yesterday, but it still looks to hit Florida's central/northern atlantic coast.. or perhaps the South Georgia coast.
Here's the latest discussion on Frances. Still looks like the East Coast of Florida is going to take a direct hit. Here's a cool satellite movie of the storm as it passed Puerto Rico. Frances
WTNT41 KNHC 011445
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 011445
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB
A FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER
TODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS
MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...
FRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
14 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY
REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
THIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
rstove02
Senior member
- Apr 19, 2004
- 508
- 0
- 71
Charley hit my mother on the west coast in North Port (2 towns north of from Punta Gorda) and my sister on the east coast (Titusville in north Brevard County).
Current projections are showing Frances is gonna come in near southen southern Brevard county where I live (Palm Bay), plus considering how much bigger Frances is than Charley size wise, looks like my sister will be hit pretty hard by this one as well.
Kinda funny that only my mother, sister and I are the only relatives that live in Florida (most live in Ohio/Kentucky) and all 3 have been hit or going to be hit shortly.
Current projections are showing Frances is gonna come in near southen southern Brevard county where I live (Palm Bay), plus considering how much bigger Frances is than Charley size wise, looks like my sister will be hit pretty hard by this one as well.
Kinda funny that only my mother, sister and I are the only relatives that live in Florida (most live in Ohio/Kentucky) and all 3 have been hit or going to be hit shortly.
- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
- 0
Rode out Andrew and then Gordon chased me all over Florida.
A total of 8 good size storms (Cat3-5) when I was on east coast for 10 years.
Prepare and do not do anything stupid.
Be glad that the storms this year are male.
A total of 8 good size storms (Cat3-5) when I was on east coast for 10 years.
Prepare and do not do anything stupid.
Be glad that the storms this year are male.
Latest discussion is out for Frances.
an Air Force reconnaissance plane flew again in the eye of Frances
and estimated a minimum pressure of 938 mb. The cloud tops have
warmed but the plane measured 131 knots at flight level. The
initial intensity is kept at 120 knots. The official intensity
forecast calls for the possibility of additional strengthening
during the next day or two as indicated by the SHIPS model...but
most likely the hurricane will go through intensity fluctuations
during eyewall replacement cycles. If fact...the 1719z recon fix
reported a double eyewall suggesting that another of these
processes is taking place. The hurricane is forecast to reach the
U.S. Coast as a major hurricane.
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.
Forecaster Avila
an Air Force reconnaissance plane flew again in the eye of Frances
and estimated a minimum pressure of 938 mb. The cloud tops have
warmed but the plane measured 131 knots at flight level. The
initial intensity is kept at 120 knots. The official intensity
forecast calls for the possibility of additional strengthening
during the next day or two as indicated by the SHIPS model...but
most likely the hurricane will go through intensity fluctuations
during eyewall replacement cycles. If fact...the 1719z recon fix
reported a double eyewall suggesting that another of these
processes is taking place. The hurricane is forecast to reach the
U.S. Coast as a major hurricane.
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on
board the NOAA p3 aircraft were used to decrease the wind radii
estimates in the northwest quadrant. Because the NW wind radii are
smaller than previously analyzed...the issuance of a Hurricane
Watch for the Florida East Coast can be delayed a little.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13
knots around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. How far west
the hurricane will go will depend on the future strength of the
ridge and that varies from model to model. The GFS and the GFDL
consistently weaken the ridge and turn the hurricane northwestward
earlier than any other models. Because the GFS and GFDL models are
very reliable...I was tempted to shift the track a little bit to
the north and east at this time. However...the Florida State
University super-ensemble and the conu consensus...which consists
of the average of the GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS and UKMET
models...bring the hurricane on a west-northwest track across
Florida. Therefore...I am not ready to make the northward shift at
this time and the official forecast remains as in the previous
advisory...very close to the consensus and basically on top of the
FSU super-ensemble.
Forecaster Avila
- Aug 22, 2001
- 32,074
- 32,600
- 146
Tremulant
Diamond Member
- Jul 2, 2004
- 4,890
- 1
- 0
Ugh. Atleast I don't have to worry about writing those research papers for tomorrow (wtf, 2nd week of enc1102 and I have 2 research papers to write).
But, I have to go into work to help them prepare a bit.. and I have to do some preparing at home also.
But, I have to go into work to help them prepare a bit.. and I have to do some preparing at home also.
Originally posted by: apoppin
SoCal has a prediction for a MAJOR quake THIS month.
:roll:
Well, good...cause I'm going to NoCal
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