I grew up surfing in cocoa beach, the only major swells we get besides nor'easters is hurricanes. You would be surprised what a little reading and watching of the weather channel would do during all the flat summer/fall days for someone. Being from the pacific northwest, i doubt you would know much about this.
I grew up surfing in cocoa beach, the only major swells we get besides nor'easters is hurricanes. You would be surprised what a little reading and watching of the weather channel would do during all the flat summer/fall days for someone. Being from the pacific northwest, i doubt you would know much about this.
Maybe this isn't the time for me to point out the OTHER other hurricane that should be hitting us in 4 days or so... 
Dave
Dave
i live NYC so i get Tropical Storms HAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHHA, umm...... yey, well i hope we will get another blizzard this winter year, i love snow. Thats why im never going to move to any hot states, just north, one day i might even move to Toronto.
Puerto Rico dodged a bullet with this one. Everyone along the east coast of the US needs to be watching this one. This could get very very ugly. Considering Florida already has had to deal with Charley and Richmond with Gaston if this thing heads to either of those places we could have a pretty freaking major disaster on our hands.
NuclearNed
Raconteur
- May 18, 2001
- 7,882
- 380
- 126
GagHalfrunt
Lifer
- Apr 19, 2001
- 25,284
- 1,998
- 126
Truer words were never spoken. That's exactly the track all the major east coast storms take and once they start turning to the north it's a crapshoot as to where they'll actually make landfall. People from Florida to North Carolina must be REALLY nervous watching this thing, if it hits an area still digging out from Charley or Gaston it'll be a nightmare. None of us in the east are safe though, I've seen a few on this track smack into New England too.
She's getting stronger and moving faster.
WTNT31 KNHC 311757
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES...WITH 140 MPH WINDS...MOVING
WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR
SHOWS RAINBANS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRANCES TODAY.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 311757
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004
...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES...WITH 140 MPH WINDS...MOVING
WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND
RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH
INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST.
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND
HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR
SHOWS RAINBANS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRANCES TODAY.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE
ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...20.3 N... 65.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
Originally posted by: Linux23
:beer:
hope it travels up the Eastern Seaboard and demolishes NYC.
one can hope.
I hope so as well. As long as it can wait until the visitors leave.
Regarding Frances the consensus is...there is no consensus. I've
stolen some words from the morning NCEP extend dscn...
"the big question mark of the period is the track of hrcn Frances as it
moves into the Continental U.S.. the models have quite an array of solutions. The
00z GFS...GFDL...and NCEP mean have shifted their tracks more to the
right...making landfall in the Carolinas on day 5/sun to day 6/Monday
while the 00z can glob and NOGAPS along with the 30/12z European model (ecmwf) take
the system nwwd once making landfall in southeastern Florida around day 4/Sat. The
UKMET has trended a bit more to the right with its track...but it
still takes Frances into Florida around mlb on day 4/Sat...which is the
closest op model to the NHC track. With mainly the NCEP model
making the big turn and sending the system into the Carolinas while the
rest of the models send the system into Florida."
At this time the official track takes it into central SC on day 6...and near
the Panhandle of WV next Tuesday. Given the intensity of Frances this
would obviously have the potential to be extremely problematic for the lwx County Warning Area
the beginning of next weak...mainly in terms of rainfall/potential fldg. But
through sun will keep the middle Atlantic dry. For now chance probability of precipitation Mon/Tue...but if
the play unfolds with this script we'll be raising probability of precipitation in the
coming days. Stay tuned.
Cheers!
stolen some words from the morning NCEP extend dscn...
"the big question mark of the period is the track of hrcn Frances as it
moves into the Continental U.S.. the models have quite an array of solutions. The
00z GFS...GFDL...and NCEP mean have shifted their tracks more to the
right...making landfall in the Carolinas on day 5/sun to day 6/Monday
while the 00z can glob and NOGAPS along with the 30/12z European model (ecmwf) take
the system nwwd once making landfall in southeastern Florida around day 4/Sat. The
UKMET has trended a bit more to the right with its track...but it
still takes Frances into Florida around mlb on day 4/Sat...which is the
closest op model to the NHC track. With mainly the NCEP model
making the big turn and sending the system into the Carolinas while the
rest of the models send the system into Florida."
At this time the official track takes it into central SC on day 6...and near
the Panhandle of WV next Tuesday. Given the intensity of Frances this
would obviously have the potential to be extremely problematic for the lwx County Warning Area
the beginning of next weak...mainly in terms of rainfall/potential fldg. But
through sun will keep the middle Atlantic dry. For now chance probability of precipitation Mon/Tue...but if
the play unfolds with this script we'll be raising probability of precipitation in the
coming days. Stay tuned.
Cheers!
Frances now at 140mph's and looking as strong as ever. Right now this thing is on par with Charley and we've already seen what happened there.
WTNT41 KNHC 312048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE
NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE
REACHED 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
THIS STRONG...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THOSE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED IN
PART BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WE WILL DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY
OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH PROCESSES.
NEVERTHERLESS...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 312048
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP
MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB. THE
STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE
NOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE
REACHED 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
THIS STRONG...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THOSE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED IN
PART BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WE WILL DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY
OCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH PROCESSES.
NEVERTHERLESS...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A
MAJOR HURRICANE.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED
PREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL
BE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES
WITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO
CONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.
FORECASTER AVILA
wnied
Diamond Member
- Oct 10, 1999
- 4,206
- 0
- 76
Hey Everyone
Seems I picked a helluva week to vacation on Singer Island down here in West Palm Beach. From what I've been reading online and watching on TV, I am just due south of where the eye should come ashore (vero beach - Ft Pierce) Needless to say I will be recording the daily activities leading upto this vacation spoiler of a storm. I have my trusty laptop, and canon powershot A300 digital camera, as well as my blazingly fast 26.4 kbps dial up service.
~wnied~
Seems I picked a helluva week to vacation on Singer Island down here in West Palm Beach. From what I've been reading online and watching on TV, I am just due south of where the eye should come ashore (vero beach - Ft Pierce) Needless to say I will be recording the daily activities leading upto this vacation spoiler of a storm. I have my trusty laptop, and canon powershot A300 digital camera, as well as my blazingly fast 26.4 kbps dial up service.
~wnied~
Gonna be a nasty one for sure. I live a couple hundred miles from the coast of North Carolina but I clearly remember Hurricane Hugo. Held together very well as it hit land and did major damage as far west as Charlotte. This one is really gaining some steam and could easily turn into a category 5. When I watched the news around lunch today, they had changed the projected path to include all of S. Carolina and even the southern-most part of N.C. Yesterday, it was barely projected as far north as Georgia.
Hope everyone along the coast from Florida to the Outer Banks of NC are getting prepared because this could get very ugly during the latter part of the weekend. Hoping for the best but fearing the worst.
Hope everyone along the coast from Florida to the Outer Banks of NC are getting prepared because this could get very ugly during the latter part of the weekend. Hoping for the best but fearing the worst.
If it stays on its current path my friend is screwed his wedding is Satuday on Saint Simons Island, Georgia. My fiancee lives in Valdosta and that will get nailed as well
No offense to your friend, but it's a gamble when you schedule a wedding (especially an outdoor one) this late into the summer in the southeast. Late August/September is usually a very tempermental time of the year here with weather. Maybe he'll get lucky and get the wedding done before the storm gets there.
GagHalfrunt
Lifer
- Apr 19, 2001
- 25,284
- 1,998
- 126
Hurricane, wedding, same thing. It starts with a lot of blowing and by the time it's over your house is gone.
Is the hurricane going to affect Orlando, Fl and if so how bad will it be? I'm flying there sept. 2nd for vacation but have no idea what to expect?
GagHalfrunt
Lifer
- Apr 19, 2001
- 25,284
- 1,998
- 126
You just visiting this planet? Nobody knows where, when or had bad a hurricane is going to hit until 2 minutes before it gets there. Anything before that is only guessing.
Latest discussion from the NHC. Looking more an more likely that the East Coast of Florida will take a direct hit from Frances.
WTNT41 KNHC 010242
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS STABILIZED TO AROUND 939-940 MB...BASED ON THE 700 MB HEIGHT
FALLS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED ON THE LAST LEG WAS
130 KT ...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 117-KT SURFACE WIND. A DROPSONDE
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ALSO REPORTED A 135-KT WIND AT ABOUT 600
FT ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED AROUND THE
EYE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA...WHILE CONTRACTING DOWN TO ABOUT 20 NMI. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 120 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLEAR
CUT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEING
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND DIVIDE INTO THREE DISTINCT TRACK
PATTERNS. THE GFDL AND GFDN RACE FRANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN 96-120 HR...THE GFS...MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM...
AND UKMET MODELS TAKE FRANCES MORE SLOWLY INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
IN 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS...LBAR..12Z ECMWF...AND THE ETA
MODELS MOVE FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE
18Z GFDL MODEL ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE
GFDN AND GFDL MODELS ARE IGNORED...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE THE EVENTUAL
LANDFALL REGION. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INFORMATION IS THAT ALL OF
THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN...AGREE THAT FRANCES WILL
SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE GFS EVEN
REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 4 KT IN 96 HR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
STEERING CURRENTS MAY BRIEFLY COLLAPSE AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. COAST AS IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND HOW THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO THAT DIGGING
LOW/TROUGH. THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INITIALIZING TOO WEAK OF
A RIDGE AROUND BERMUDA...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE
GFDL/GFDN SOLUTIONS. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WAS PLACED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72-96 HR TO INDICATE SOME BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE
LEFT OF TRACK...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS
FRANCES AT 124 KT IN 12-24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS THE HURRICANE DOWN
TO 112 KT IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKENING IS CAUSED BY
'SELF-INFLICTED' VERTICAL SHEAR SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK...PLACING THE HURRICANECENTER IN STRONG
CYCLONIC WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GFS MODEL STORM.
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT41 KNHC 010242
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004
RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS STABILIZED TO AROUND 939-940 MB...BASED ON THE 700 MB HEIGHT
FALLS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED ON THE LAST LEG WAS
130 KT ...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 117-KT SURFACE WIND. A DROPSONDE
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ALSO REPORTED A 135-KT WIND AT ABOUT 600
FT ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED AROUND THE
EYE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR DATA...WHILE CONTRACTING DOWN TO ABOUT 20 NMI. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 120 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLEAR
CUT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEING
ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND DIVIDE INTO THREE DISTINCT TRACK
PATTERNS. THE GFDL AND GFDN RACE FRANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN 96-120 HR...THE GFS...MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM...
AND UKMET MODELS TAKE FRANCES MORE SLOWLY INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
IN 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS...LBAR..12Z ECMWF...AND THE ETA
MODELS MOVE FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE
18Z GFDL MODEL ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE
GFDN AND GFDL MODELS ARE IGNORED...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE THE EVENTUAL
LANDFALL REGION. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INFORMATION IS THAT ALL OF
THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN...AGREE THAT FRANCES WILL
SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE GFS EVEN
REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 4 KT IN 96 HR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
STEERING CURRENTS MAY BRIEFLY COLLAPSE AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN
THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. COAST AS IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND HOW THE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO THAT DIGGING
LOW/TROUGH. THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INITIALIZING TOO WEAK OF
A RIDGE AROUND BERMUDA...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE
GFDL/GFDN SOLUTIONS. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WAS PLACED IN THE
FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72-96 HR TO INDICATE SOME BUILDING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE
LEFT OF TRACK...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS
FRANCES AT 124 KT IN 12-24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS THE HURRICANE DOWN
TO 112 KT IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKENING IS CAUSED BY
'SELF-INFLICTED' VERTICAL SHEAR SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK...PLACING THE HURRICANECENTER IN STRONG
CYCLONIC WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GFS MODEL STORM.
FORECASTER STEWART
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