My parents were going to go to Ft Myers to escape, now they are going to Virginia. I have lived there(cocoa beach) for all my life before a couple of years ago and the only hurricanes to smack us dead on were DAvid and Erin...... This doesnt look good.
MBony
Platinum Member
- Sep 16, 2003
- 2,990
- 0
- 76
I guess I've had my head in a hole because I just found out about this thing. I like in the South East tip of Georgia and according to this map, it is going to hit us. Also, we were planning on going to Destin FL on vacay this weekend. Doesn't look like that is going to happen now 
Man I hope this thing takes another path!
Man I hope this thing takes another path!
I just got off the phone with some of our family who live in Melbourne. They've already rented a van so all of them can ride together and get to our house (S. Ga.) by in the morning. They said it's crazy down there. Everyone is boarding up their homes and getting out.
With us living in S. Ga., we always keep an eye on these things but rarely get more than a lot of rain. But, this one we're keeping a close watch on. Even our local weather is telling us to prepare. It seems as though noone is sure where this one is going. Funny thing is that even though our family is coming to our house, we're still all looking at the possibility that this isn't far enough away.
As bad as Charley was, it's amazing that there's a stronger one fixing to hit so soon. To everyone in Fl, we've got our fingers crossed.
Stephanie
With us living in S. Ga., we always keep an eye on these things but rarely get more than a lot of rain. But, this one we're keeping a close watch on. Even our local weather is telling us to prepare. It seems as though noone is sure where this one is going. Funny thing is that even though our family is coming to our house, we're still all looking at the possibility that this isn't far enough away.
As bad as Charley was, it's amazing that there's a stronger one fixing to hit so soon. To everyone in Fl, we've got our fingers crossed.
Stephanie
- Oct 30, 2000
- 42,589
- 5
- 0
Mickey needs to remove the bulleye that was painted this spring. Must be a magnet for hurricanes.
Here's the latest discussion from the NHC. The models have all converged on Eastern Florida now. They seem pretty certain that it will hit there now.
although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation
... Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum
pressure has risen to 948 mb and the eyewall is currently
disrupted. Initial intensity has been adjusted to 120 knots. This
is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core
processes and Frances could easily re-intensify. Nevertheless...
Frances is expected to remain a category four hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson scale until landfall.
Frances has been wobbling during the past few hours but the overall
motion appears to be toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9
knots. The current steering pattern of a high pressure ridge to
the north of the hurricane is expected to persist...forcing Frances
to move between the west-northwest and northwest during the next 24
to 48 hours across the Bahamas and until landfall along the Florida
East Coast. All track models including the GFDL and the GFS are now
in very good agreement...increasing the confidence in the forecast.
Despite the high confidence...it is impossible to predict the exact
location of where the center will cross the coast this far in
advance.
At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.
Forecaster Avila
Here's the forecast models. Keep in mind the NOGAPS on there has already been updated but they seem slow at updating it on the chart.
although Frances continues to have a good satellite representation
... Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the minimum
pressure has risen to 948 mb and the eyewall is currently
disrupted. Initial intensity has been adjusted to 120 knots. This
is probably a minor fluctuation associated with inner core
processes and Frances could easily re-intensify. Nevertheless...
Frances is expected to remain a category four hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson scale until landfall.
Frances has been wobbling during the past few hours but the overall
motion appears to be toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9
knots. The current steering pattern of a high pressure ridge to
the north of the hurricane is expected to persist...forcing Frances
to move between the west-northwest and northwest during the next 24
to 48 hours across the Bahamas and until landfall along the Florida
East Coast. All track models including the GFDL and the GFS are now
in very good agreement...increasing the confidence in the forecast.
Despite the high confidence...it is impossible to predict the exact
location of where the center will cross the coast this far in
advance.
At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.
Forecaster Avila
Here's the forecast models. Keep in mind the NOGAPS on there has already been updated but they seem slow at updating it on the chart.
***As this large...powerful...and very dangerous hurricane
approaches the coast...several very important points to users need
be made here***
1) Because of the oblique angle at which Frances is expected to
approach the coast...emphasis *still* should not be placed on the
Point of the projected landfall of the center. Frances' wind field
is very large: tropical storm force or greater winds encompass more
than 50,000 square miles. Preparations should be made throughout the
Hurricane Watch area assuming a *direct* hit from a major hurricane.
2) Attempting to extrapolate short term (1-3hr) trochoidal wobbles
into a longer term motion is prone to be erroneous...especially
given the current forward speed...which is about 10 miles per hour less than
Hurricane Charley was moving at landfall.
3) For those looking for comparisons to Floyd...the synoptic patterns
between Floyd and Frances are completely different. There is no
short wave trough of significant amplitude over or approaching the
southeast United States or western Atlantic.
All residents should rush to completion their hurricane preparedness
plans. Outer rainbands could approach the southeast coast by Friday morning. Tropical storm force winds impinging on the Martin/St. Lucie
coast lines as early as Friday afternoon. Rain & wind will increase
from southeast to northwest across County Warning Area with the greatest impact expected Saturday.
As with Hurricane Charley...the potential exists for damaging winds
to spread far inland...with inland winds having the potential to
rival or exceed those experienced several weeks ago.
Cheers!
approaches the coast...several very important points to users need
be made here***
1) Because of the oblique angle at which Frances is expected to
approach the coast...emphasis *still* should not be placed on the
Point of the projected landfall of the center. Frances' wind field
is very large: tropical storm force or greater winds encompass more
than 50,000 square miles. Preparations should be made throughout the
Hurricane Watch area assuming a *direct* hit from a major hurricane.
2) Attempting to extrapolate short term (1-3hr) trochoidal wobbles
into a longer term motion is prone to be erroneous...especially
given the current forward speed...which is about 10 miles per hour less than
Hurricane Charley was moving at landfall.
3) For those looking for comparisons to Floyd...the synoptic patterns
between Floyd and Frances are completely different. There is no
short wave trough of significant amplitude over or approaching the
southeast United States or western Atlantic.
All residents should rush to completion their hurricane preparedness
plans. Outer rainbands could approach the southeast coast by Friday morning. Tropical storm force winds impinging on the Martin/St. Lucie
coast lines as early as Friday afternoon. Rain & wind will increase
from southeast to northwest across County Warning Area with the greatest impact expected Saturday.
As with Hurricane Charley...the potential exists for damaging winds
to spread far inland...with inland winds having the potential to
rival or exceed those experienced several weeks ago.
Cheers!
000
WTNT71 KNHC 030229
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.1N 77.9W 46 X X X 46 KEY WEST FL X 2 1 2 5
26.8N 79.1W 28 2 X X 30 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 8 2 3 14
27.6N 80.6W 3 14 3 1 21 FT MYERS FL 1 9 3 3 16
MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 7 5 4 16
MYEG 235N 758W 3 X X X 3 TAMPA FL X 6 8 4 18
MYAK 241N 776W 23 1 X X 24 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 10 6 17
MYNN 251N 775W 49 X X X 49 ST MARKS FL X X 4 10 14
MYGF 266N 787W 35 X X X 35 APALACHICOLA FL X X 4 10 14
MARATHON FL 2 3 1 2 8 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 10 12
MIAMI FL 11 5 1 1 18 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
W PALM BEACH FL 13 8 1 1 23 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6
FT PIERCE FL 5 14 2 1 22 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
COCOA BEACH FL 1 14 4 2 21 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 7 9 4 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 7 8 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 9 14
SAVANNAH GA X X 2 8 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 9 10
CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
Was watching the thread with interest. Good Luck to those in the path.....
WTNT71 KNHC 030229
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.1N 77.9W 46 X X X 46 KEY WEST FL X 2 1 2 5
26.8N 79.1W 28 2 X X 30 MARCO ISLAND FL 1 8 2 3 14
27.6N 80.6W 3 14 3 1 21 FT MYERS FL 1 9 3 3 16
MYSM 241N 745W 99 X X X 99 VENICE FL X 7 5 4 16
MYEG 235N 758W 3 X X X 3 TAMPA FL X 6 8 4 18
MYAK 241N 776W 23 1 X X 24 CEDAR KEY FL X 1 10 6 17
MYNN 251N 775W 49 X X X 49 ST MARKS FL X X 4 10 14
MYGF 266N 787W 35 X X X 35 APALACHICOLA FL X X 4 10 14
MARATHON FL 2 3 1 2 8 PANAMA CITY FL X X 2 10 12
MIAMI FL 11 5 1 1 18 PENSACOLA FL X X X 9 9
W PALM BEACH FL 13 8 1 1 23 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6
FT PIERCE FL 5 14 2 1 22 GULFPORT MS X X X 5 5
COCOA BEACH FL 1 14 4 2 21 BURAS LA X X X 4 4
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 7 9 4 20 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 3 3
JACKSONVILLE FL X 1 7 8 16 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 9 14
SAVANNAH GA X X 2 8 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 9 10
CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT
C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT
D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
Was watching the thread with interest. Good Luck to those in the path.....
000
WTNT21 KNHC 030245
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z FRI SEP 03 2004
...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 115 KT TO 110 KT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 74.9W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.1N 77.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.8N 79.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N 83.0W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 75.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT21 KNHC 030245
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z FRI SEP 03 2004
...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 115 KT TO 110 KT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.4W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 75.4W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 74.9W
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.1N 77.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.8N 79.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.6N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N 83.0W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 35.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 75.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT31 KNHC 030245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 125 MPH
...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT31 KNHC 030245
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004
CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 125 MPH
...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
000
URNT12 KNHC 030355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0355Z
B. 24 DEG 37 MIN N
75 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2685 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 89 KT
G. 041 DEG 52 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 11 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3066 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. .1 / 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 28
MAX FL WIND 92 KT E QUAD 0304Z.
MAX FL TEMP 21C 227/13 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Latest Vortex has even higher pressure, but I do expect it to drop again. The weakening is temporary.
URNT12 KNHC 030355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0355Z
B. 24 DEG 37 MIN N
75 DEG 27 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2685 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 89 KT
G. 041 DEG 52 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 11 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3066 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. .1 / 2 NM
P. AF985 2006A FRANCES OB 28
MAX FL WIND 92 KT E QUAD 0304Z.
MAX FL TEMP 21C 227/13 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Latest Vortex has even higher pressure, but I do expect it to drop again. The weakening is temporary.
I reside 15-20miles west of Orlando. (Lake County/Central FL)
All my neighbors are taking off. I'm staying put 'till sat morning but do have a place up the road that will be safe if things take a turn for the worst.
All my neighbors are taking off. I'm staying put 'till sat morning but do have a place up the road that will be safe if things take a turn for the worst.
She's weakened a lot. I don't think this is going to be a major catastrophy as once expected, although I'm sure it will still add plenty of insult to injury.
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