Bwhahahahahaha.. That made me LOL
:thumbsup:
The GFDL track doesen't appear to be the only one to worry about ......
:thumbsup:
The GFDL track doesen't appear to be the only one to worry about ......
I suspect florida's population will decline this year. As with any hurricane that hits us, uninsured home owners almost always leave the state if they are directly impacted. You may be able to get a good deal on beachfront property after the hurricane season is over, but you will need to bring your own roof
We have ourselves a Cat 5 storm. Damn. Winds are up to 160mph and the central pressure is at 925mb per the latest NHC Advisory. The official forecast has this thing heading in the worst possible route which is between Tampa and Port Charlotte. There is still alot of uncertainty in the forecast which hinges on the strength of the ridge to the northeast of Ivan. Either way it's almost certain that Cuba or Jamaica or both is about to have an absolute catastrophe on their hands. 
The NHC had expected some weakening on the last advisory due to lower SST in the central Carribbean, so kind of surprising to see the opposite actually taking place. It just reinforces the fact that forecasting the intensity of these things is extremely difficult for them. If anything maybe this will put the spotlight on this problem and more will be invested on more accurate computer models etc.
Not much can be done now but hope that Jamaica and Cuba are well prepared for this impending disaster.
The NHC had expected some weakening on the last advisory due to lower SST in the central Carribbean, so kind of surprising to see the opposite actually taking place. It just reinforces the fact that forecasting the intensity of these things is extremely difficult for them. If anything maybe this will put the spotlight on this problem and more will be invested on more accurate computer models etc.
Not much can be done now but hope that Jamaica and Cuba are well prepared for this impending disaster.
Here's the official advisory from the NHC.
...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens into a category 5
hurricane over the south-central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela...and for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port
au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Jamaica
later this morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern
coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area later today.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.7 north...longitude 69.5 west or about 85 miles...135
km...northeast of Aruba in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is
also about 570 miles... 915 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should remain well to the north of Aruba and Bonaire during
the next several hours...and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 160 mph...255
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan a rare category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in strength are likely.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 925 mb...27.31 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...13.7 N... 69.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 925 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
...Extremely dangerous Ivan strengthens into a category 5
hurricane over the south-central Caribbean Sea...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela...and for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port
au Prince.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Jamaica
later this morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern
coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area later today.
Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 13.7 north...longitude 69.5 west or about 85 miles...135
km...northeast of Aruba in the Dutch Netherland Antilles. This is
also about 570 miles... 915 km...east-southeast of Kingston
Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center
of Ivan should remain well to the north of Aruba and Bonaire during
the next several hours...and then continue on Route toward the area
near Jamaica.
Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 160 mph...255
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Ivan a rare category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in strength are likely.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 925 mb...27.31 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...13.7 N... 69.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure... 925 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Stewart
I've got a bad feeling that the Panhandle of Florida is going to get smacked with this one. I dunno if any computer models agree with me...just kind of a gut feeling on my part.
The official forecast track has an eventual landfall between Port Charlotte and Tampa that pretty much mirrors the NOGAPS model which accurately predicted Frances heading across Florida before any of the other models picked it up. Right between Port Charlotte and Tampa. Can this possibly get any worse?
Anubis
No Lifer
jeasus its not like these things are new, you get them EVERY FUSKING YEAR
move allready and stop bitching
move allready and stop bitching
Who's bitching? Do you know how rare a 160mph hurricane is? Certainly less common than every year. I can think of 3 total in the last 100 years off the top of my head. Mitch, Gilbert and Camille. That's it. Andrew certainly wasn't this strong. Do you not understand what kind of disaster is possible here for Jamaica? If you have no interest in this thread then stay out and stick to the cat threads.
Latest vortex message from the Hurricane Hunters. I'm pretty sure that lighting and hail are rare for hurricane.
000
URNT12 KNHC 090527
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0527Z
B. 13 DEG 39 MIN N
69 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2427 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 097 DEG 154 KT
G. 358 DEG 6 NM
H. 925 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 21 C/ 3048 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/13/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.
000
URNT12 KNHC 090527
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0527Z
B. 13 DEG 39 MIN N
69 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2427 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 097 DEG 154 KT
G. 358 DEG 6 NM
H. 925 MB
I. 9 C/ 3106 M
J. 21 C/ 3048 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E09/13/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN EYEWALL.
HAIL OUTBOUND THROUGH SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.
Would you be saying the same thing if we could accurately track and predict Earthquakes, and California was about to have an 8.5?
Sure, Earthquakes happen all the time.. but not 8.5's.
Ivan is currently more like an 8.5 than a run of the mill 4.5.
Do you realize that the power of wind increases as the cube of the wind speed?
A category 5 hurricane is around 8 times more powerful than a category 1.
I don't think there have been an alarmingly abnormal number of hurricanes this year, it's just that they seem to have their target on Florida.
People suspect that increased hurricane activity goes in 20 year cycles and that we are in one now. Also, global warming may be a factor, but honestly no one really knows.
holy shiet, it's heading straight towards tampa..
tampa is my favorite city in Florida
mars venus, R.I.P
tampa is my favorite city in Florida
mars venus, R.I.P
As with Frances we have to wait and see how long Ivan will hold this strength, or if he continues to strengthen. This is a very rare storm, and I feel sorry for any land in its wake. Grenada was already destroyed.
Dude, you have no frickin clue of what you'tr talking about.
I don't know about other people in Florida but here in Orlando, we haven't had a major hurricane here in the 24yrs I've lived here....and then 2 in 3 weeks.
Wow, this hurricane is insane.
Jamaica is going to be decimated.
160MPH winds, pressure is at an estimated 916mb. :Q
Jamaica is going to be decimated.
160MPH winds, pressure is at an estimated 916mb. :Q
Is 916 a record? That's amazing.Originally posted by: Eli
Wow, this hurricane is insane.
Jamaica is going to be decimated.
160MPH winds, pressure is at an estimated 916mb. :Q
Linflas
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2001
- 15,395
- 78
- 91
No, AFAIK the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record was hurricane Gilbert, at 888mb.Originally posted by: badmouse
Is 916 a record? That's amazing.Originally posted by: Eli
Wow, this hurricane is insane.
Jamaica is going to be decimated.
160MPH winds, pressure is at an estimated 916mb. :Q
The lowest pressure ever, 876mb, was recorded in super typhoon Forest in 1983.
Edit: Ok, I was was wrong. The most intense was Typhoon Tip in 1979, chiming in at 870mb and winds of 190MPH(165knots).
:Q
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