Android Captures 80% Of Smartphone Market In Q2

[cheezy321]

^I think jpeyton was mostly addressing the 'cheezys' of this thread, not you, who provided us with such wisdom as:



He is wrong, the numbers do mean something. You're right, MrX8503, though in that Apple's marketshare will dwindle, but ultimately they will keep the piece they want - the high end.
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I think that, other than an obviously game-changing new product, right now Apple has several significant needs in its existing markets, and it's doing a good job in addressing some of them, and a bad job in others.

Just a few of Apple's needs, IMO:

lower-end iPhone to sell to China, 3rd world, non-contract customers
-Apple is purportedly releasing the iPhone 5C. Customers don't want to be stuck with last-gen hardware, but they have been willing to make that sacrifice to get into the Apple phone ecosystem. An iPhone 5C would be a boon for non-contract buyers.

Retina display iPad mini and a thinner, lighter iPad
-A thinner iPad has been in the works for half a year now, according to rumors. We saw leaks of thinner glass panels earlier in the year. I think the iPad mini with retina is even more desperately needed: devices like the Nexus 7 make the iPad mini seem hopelessly last-gen.

Updated notebook like with Haswell across the board, more affordable Macbooks
Haswell is on the Air, and hopefully will be on other devices by Christmas. Apple has actually been cutting the price of the Macbook Air, Pro and Retina Macbook Pro in the past couple of years. Yes, the prices have been coming down at typically glacial Apple rates, but think that for $999/$1099 now you can get a Macbook Air, which is an awesome ultraportable laptop; a few years ago that kind of money got you an all-plastic Macbook.

Do you think I come up with this stuff out of nowhere? There are many studies that back up exactly what I am saying.


Android is not achieving their growth in the business sector:
iOS Dominates Enterprise Mobility Market With 77% of Device Activations
-Android may be selling these tablets, but who is using them? They don't show up in any significance when it comes to the business world. They don't show up in any significance in most studies.
iPad still overwhelmingly dominates web traffic on tablets, at 81.9%
Android owns 60%+ of the tablet market, but only makes up less than 20% of tablet traffic? Where are these tablets going? Who is using them? When it comes to actual usage, its not even close to a competition.

Here is a deeper dive into the numbers. I trust these way more than IDC numbers, specifically because IDC talks about 'shipped' devices and not necessarily devices that are being used or actually sold to a customer. They also include devices from upgrades which is not necessarily a new customer, just someone upgrading their android device.
The iOS and Android Two-Horse Race: A Deeper Look into Market Share
Based on their numbers: There are currently 1.1 android devices being used for every iOS device. Not even close to the 8:1 rate.
Android devices are not being used at the same rate compared to iOS devices. Again, people replacing their dumbphones with android phones and not using any of the smartphone features.

Apple does have room to grow and improve in a lot of areas. I think they should fork their product lines more and provide more selection. I also think that the smartphone industry in general has not been all that exciting since early 2012. There isn't any real innovation going on, just manufacturers making larger screened phones. Thats it. I dont think Apple's plan has changed much from the start. They provide high quality devices at a price higher than their competition. It would be nice for them to own 90%+ of the marketshare, but would they do that at the cost of their bottom line? The main crux of peoples' hate on Apple is always the pricing. They have and always will price their products a little higher than the competition. Why is anyone surprised that Apple isn't playing the race to the bottom pricing game?

Which leads me to my conclusion: Android is achieving their rapid market share growth in the low low end. When it comes to high end devices, android is slightly winning this battle. Just barely. It's not complete domination. Not even close to 8:1. The people who are buying their phones live in a 3rd world country and purchase it for less than $100 without a contract. This is where the explosive growth is taking place. I don't expect Apple to ever compete in this area. Why does it surprise anyone that they aren't competing for bottom end smartphones? Even if they release the 'cheaper' iPhone it will still be priced at double the cost of the bottom rung android smartphones out there.

 

[Red Storm]

FYI that study about web traffic is about only US traffic, only over 6 days, and only through the Chitika ad network. Is there any way to see the device traffic for the most popular websites in each country over the course of a year? I'd think that'd be a much more useful data set to look at.

Can someone link me to these 100$ off contract phones? I'm sure some exist, but I'm still interested in seeing them. Do they run Android 2.x or 4.x? Considering ~70% of Android devices are running 4.x, I'd really like to see these $100 ICS/JB phones.

 

[jiffylube1024]

Do you think I come up with this stuff out of nowhere? There are many studies that back up exactly what I am saying.

No I think you cherry pick your sources and data to present a case you have pre-formulated.

1.
The flurry blog article you posted compares iOS devices to Android ones. Fair enough, but this is a thread about Smartphone sales, and you're posting an article comparing combined iPod/iPhone/iPad usage to Android usage. Apples to oranges x2 (we're comparing phones to phones, not iOS vs Android devices. Plus we're talking about sales, not usage).

2.
The 'business sector' article you posted is from December 2012, basically 8 month old data that came out right after 2-3 months of hot iPhone 5 sales but way before the Galaxy S4 came out. I don't doubt that the iPhone is doing great in the corporate sector right now, as Blackberry devices are largely being phased out, but the picture isn't as rosy as it was back in December 2012.

3. "Tablet Usage Share" data (how often they're used for surfing the internet) does indeed show that people are using their iPad way more than Android tablets as a daily device, for all sorts of activities. But what does that tell you when Apple's tablet marketshare essentially gets cut in half from Q2 2012 to Q2 2013, while Android's tablet marketshare doubles?

The iPad is by far the best web-surfing tablet out there. Its combination of size, weight and screen quality are unmatched (even the Nexus 10 doesn't quite compare IMO, though it's pretty good, but sales of the N10 are terrible). However, 7-8" tablets make for better ereaders, and fabulous portable gaming devices. Apple should be proud that the iPad is proving to be a far more useful device as, essentially, a laptop replacement for a number of people, but their tablet marketshare ownership paints a completely different picture, and as Android devices improve in capability they will eventually be used for more internet surfing as well. The userbase is certainly there...

Based on their numbers: There are currently 1.1 android devices being used for every iOS device. Not even close to the 8:1 rate.
Android devices are not being used at the same rate compared to iOS devices. Again, people replacing their dumbphones with android phones and not using any of the smartphone features.

No, once again you're comparing aggregated iPod touch/iPhone/iPad usage to Android phone/tablet usage. This tells us nothing about the sales picture in the phone or tablet market in isolation, nor the trends in device sales. You're cherry picking your sources and the conclusions based on what they tell you. iOS device activations can't be directly compared to who is buying which phone.

Apple does have room to grow and improve in a lot of areas. I think they should fork their product lines more and provide more selection. I also think that the smartphone industry in general has not been all that exciting since early 2012. There isn't any real innovation going on, just manufacturers making larger screened phones. Thats it. I dont think Apple's plan has changed much from the start. They provide high quality devices at a price higher than their competition.

That's your opinion, which I feel is a little Apple-tinted. 5" phones with 1080p screens are pretty exciting to me, they make the phone more of a phone/tablet in terms of useability for more tasks. Plus Apple's phones aren't higher priced than the competition; flagships are always priced in the $600-700 range, or $100-200 subsidized, be it iPhone, Samsung Galaxy or HTC One.

It would be nice for them to own 90%+ of the marketshare

Would it? I think it's bad for either Apple or Android to own that much of the market.

Which leads me to my conclusion: Android is achieving their rapid market share growth in the low low end.

No, Android is growing in both the low and high end; the Galaxy S IV, for example is selling 1.7x faster than its predecessor:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57...xy-s4-sales-top-20-million-units-report-says/

 

[jiffylube1024]

Not even close to 8:1.

Bad Math; 79.5% Android Marketshare for Q2 2013 vs 13.6% Marketshare for Apple Marketshare is 5.8:1 not 8:1.

That's just one quarter of sales, mind you, and a particularly grim one to look at for Apple since they're in between devices and Android is just coming off another flagship launch. The iPhone 5 has been out for close to a year now.

Undoubtedly Apple's sales will rebound in a big way when they launch the 5C and 5S. I also feel like iOS 7 will probably rejuvenate the operating system, which has become a bit stale of late.

Plus, nobody said that Android's marketshare was exclusively in the high end, but when you're talking about 80% vs 14% marketshare in Q2 2013, it's pretty clear that success is occurring at all pricepoints. The Galaxy S4 sales back that up (20 million units in 2 months). Even the new HTC One has sold 5+ million phones to date, though apparently sales of that phone are already in decline: http://www.gsmarena.com/some_analysts_expect_htc_one_sales_to_slump_by_40_in_q3-news-6427.php.

I'm sorry to harp on your points like this, but you seem to be coming at this as an Apple evangelist coming in to defend Apple.

 

[jiffylube1024]

dp

 

[dawheat]

IMO the key takeaway in the trend - whether on the high-end Android globally is 1:1 with Apple or some other multiple, that's a significant difference from 1 year ago, much less 2 or 3.

Is there any reason why this trend would substantially change for the next year at which point Android should clearly outsell Apple on the high end no matter how you slice the data?

If the 5C really is $450-$500, then I don't see how it changes the game for Apple since their one year old phone already normally goes for $500-$550. In fact I'd worry about cannabalization along the lines of the mini to the full size iPad.

 

[openwheel]

Of course they are going to update to Haswell across the board, why wouldn't they?

Because they may not always update to the latest. Just look at the history of the Mac Pro. Apple's business model is to market to the high end market and maximize profit per unit.

 

[jpeyton]

It would be nice for them to own 90%+ of the marketshare, but would they do that at the cost of their bottom line?

It would definitely be nice for iOS developers, who have to develop for Android unless they want to ignore 80% of the market.

I mean, could you imagine EA suddenly deciding they only want to release Battlefield 4 for Mac OS X and ignore Windows entirely?

 

[cheezy321]

It would definitely be nice for iOS developers, who have to develop for Android unless they want to ignore 80% of the market.

I mean, could you imagine EA suddenly deciding they only want to release Battlefield 4 for Mac OS X and ignore Windows entirely?

Yeah, instagram ignored android (for a while) and sold their company for $1,000,000,000.

Yeah, Netflix is doing just fine and they ignored android for quite a while (and still do on some phones).

Yeah, amazon is still doing it with instant streaming and they aren't hurting.

Looks like e-commerce sites should continue to focus on iOS

Yeah if they want to make money they should continue to focus on iOS then eventually port to android. This has not changed for 5 years.

I think EA would be just fine if they focused their development efforts on iOS, but it would be stupid to ignore android obviously

Hey look, all links that further support my argument that a lot of androids growth is in the low end sector full of consumers that don't spend money! Weird.

 

[cheezy321]

It would definitely be nice for iOS developers, who have to develop for Android unless they want to ignore 80% of the market.

I mean, could you imagine EA suddenly deciding they only want to release Battlefield 4 for Mac OS X and ignore Windows entirely?

This is entirely off topic, but your last question got me thinking. If market share is the end all be all answer for developers, then why is PC gaming in a severe decline? There are billions of windows users out there and the market is bigger than it ever has been. So why are developers sticking to consoles and not PCs?

 

[jpiniero]

This is entirely off topic, but your last question got me thinking. If market share is the end all be all answer for developers, then why is PC gaming in a severe decline? There are billions of windows users out there and the market is bigger than it ever has been. So why are developers sticking to consoles and not PCs?

Piracy

 

[jpeyton]

There are billions of windows users out there and the market is bigger than it ever has been.

Really? There are billions of Windows PCs out there that can run Battlefield 4? Or any modern PC game for that matter?

Let's try that again. If you want to know why developers like consoles, look at last years top titles (BF3, MW3). The install base of the PS3 and XBOX360 was approximately 80 million units each (160 million total).

How many PCs out there can run BF3 or MW3 at console quality settings? Billions?

 

[cheezy321]

Really? There are billions of Windows PCs out there that can run Battlefield 4? Or any modern PC game for that matter?

Let's try that again. If you want to know why developers like consoles, look at last years top titles (BF3, MW3). The install base of the PS3 and XBOX360 was approximately 80 million units each (160 million total).

How many PCs out there can run BF3 or MW3 at console quality settings? Billions?

Standard fare that you won't concede that piracy is a big reason developers are running away from PCs. Probably because its also a pretty big issue on android too. Piracy can kill your company.

Recommended requirements for battlefield 3 (minimum requirements are even lower):

OS: Windows 7 64-bit
Processor: Quad-core Intel or AMD CPU
RAM: 4GB
Graphics card: DirectX 11 Nvidia or AMD ATI card, Nvidia GeForce GTX 560 or ATI Radeon 6950.
Graphics card memory: 1 GB
Sound card: DirectX compatibl sound card
Hard drive: 15 GB for disc version or 10 GB for digital version

I bet you there are more than 160 million computers in the world that meet those requirements. My almost 3 year old laptop meets these specs.

 

[Joe1987]

Yeah, amazon is still doing it with instant streaming and they aren't hurting.

For the life of me, I don't understand why they haven't released a something for Android, They actually compete with Apple and managed to get a player on Apple TV and iOS devices.

Anyone else catch this by Florian Mueller? He was pissed because of a Bloomberg reporter completely misrepresenting the way the legal battles have been going.

http://www.fosspatents.com/2013/08/apple-isnt-winning-patent-spat-with.html

Let there be no doubt that the outcome will be a settlement under which Samsung is the net payer and faces anti-cloning restrictions. It may take time. But it will happen.

 

[BladeVenom]

If market share is the end all be all answer for developers, then why is PC gaming in a severe decline?

It's not. You are completely wrong.

That's current, here's one from 2011

Does that look like PC gaming is in decline to you?

For Struggling PC Market, It's PC Gamers To The Rescue

 

[MrX8503]

It would definitely be nice for iOS developers, who have to develop for Android unless they want to ignore 80% of the market.

I mean, could you imagine EA suddenly deciding they only want to release Battlefield 4 for Mac OS X and ignore Windows entirely?

I'm not sure how you're drawing the correlation that Windows/OSX is similar to Android/iOS in terms of revenue. Because revenue is what Devs care about.

Some developers do indeed ignore Android because its easier to reach more people on iOS.

 

[jpeyton]

Standard fare that you won't concede that piracy is a big reason developers are running away from PCs. Probably because its also a pretty big issue on android too. Piracy can kill your company.

Now you've resorted to the MPAA's tired, disproven theory that piracy kills content producers.

One of the most pirated games recently released was Skyrim. It's currently ranked third most seeded on TPB. Despite this, it was the fastest selling game in Steam history: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-12-16-valve-skyrim-fastest-selling-game-in-steam-history

I bet you there are more than 160 million computers in the world that meet those requirements. My almost 3 year old laptop meets these specs.

I bet you there isn't. If gaming PCs were that ubiquitous, and people who owned gaming PCs were all pirates, then how does a game like Skyrim sell 10 million copies to begin with?

 

[jpeyton]

I think EA would be just fine if they focused their development efforts on iOS, but it would be stupid to ignore android obviously[/url]

You sure like using old data. Q4 2012? Why not Q1 2013? http://www.businessinsider.com/mobile-games-earn-double-on-ios-2013-6

Sure, iOS still has a 2:1 lead in revenue over Android, but the bigger story is that Android DOUBLED gaming revenue in a single quarter.

My guess is that by Q1 2014, they will be even in terms of gaming revenue, and the trend of Android's share rising while Apple's share declines continues, like it has in every single other category.

 

[lothar]

This. Exactly this. Without Nokia embracing Windows Phone, I think the platform would be in a far worse place than it is today. I also feel Nokia would be in a worse place than they are today.

There are loads of Android OEMs, but most of them aren't particularly profitable. HTC is one of the more recognized OEMs (and had an early foot in the Android market) and they aren't performing particularly well. The Android market is oversaturated, and Nokia would be hitting the same block as HTC, only worse.

If you're the CEO of Nokia, that statement should be irrelevant. What matters is profits, not adopting some other company's platform to better it to the detriment of your own profits.

How many Android makers aren't profitable?
Samsung mobile earned a profit. LG's mobile division earned a profit. Sony's mobile division earned a profit. ASUS mobile division earned a profit. Lenovo's mobile division earned a profit. Huawei's mobile division earned a profit. HTC earns a profit. Amazon earns a profit.
Besides Motorola, which other Android OEM isn't earning a profit?

If HTC spent as much as Nokia spends in marketing their WP devices, they'll be earning a massive profit.
I see Nokia WP commercials on TV and YouTube all the time making fun of iPhone and dissing Apple users.

HTC's problem is that they have a "marketing" problem.
Nokia's problem is that they didn't go Android and chose to stick exclusively to WP.
The only thing keeping Nokia alive at this point is Microsoft's $250 million quarterly payments to them, but even that will be ending soon.

 

[TheStu]

Because they may not always update to the latest. Just look at the history of the Mac Pro. Apple's business model is to market to the high end market and maximize profit per unit.

If you can show me where Apple has, in the last few years, NOT updated their laptops to the latest CPUs from intel in a timely fashion, that would be great... In fact, there have been a couple of instances where Apple was ahead of the curve (in one case by at least a month or more as I recall) in getting their CPUs from intel. They are going to update to Haswell, they aren't going to let their laptops lines coast until Broadwell comes up, that's simply crazy talk.

 

[openwheel]

If you can show me where Apple has, in the last few years, NOT updated their laptops to the latest CPUs from intel in a timely fashion, that would be great...

I said Mac Pros. Laptops are only a portion of their business.
With the ever rising demand of battery power, everyone is forced to upgrade to the latest silicon. This is a no brainer.

 

[TheStu]

I said Mac Pros. Laptops are only a portion of their business.
With the ever rising demand of battery power, everyone is forced to upgrade to the latest silicon. This is a no brainer.

The person I was originally replying to had specified notebooks.

And if you think that Mac Pros constitute a larger slice of their business than their laptops... I can't do much for you. I'm not saying that it was good of them let the thing languish for 3 years, a refresh in the middle wouldn't have been the end of the world for them, but they probably sell more MacBooks in a month than they sell Mac Pros in a year.

 

[Red Storm]

This is entirely off topic, but your last question got me thinking. If market share is the end all be all answer for developers, then why is PC gaming in a severe decline? There are billions of windows users out there and the market is bigger than it ever has been. So why are developers sticking to consoles and not PCs?

PC Gaming is not declining...

 

[lothar]

This is entirely off topic, but your last question got me thinking. If market share is the end all be all answer for developers, then why is PC gaming in a severe decline? There are billions of windows users out there and the market is bigger than it ever has been. So why are developers sticking to consoles and not PCs?

Prove it.

If anything at all, PC gaming is the one that's increasing while console gaming is currently undergoing a period of stagnation and could even be in for a possible decline in the coming years.

 

[jpeyton]

Did somebody say app revenue? http://bgr.com/2013/08/12/google-play-app-revenue-growth-analysis/

When will Apple be overtaken?