Android As We Know It Will Die In The Next Two Years

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Jun 26, 2007
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I am a Blackberry user (love the keypads) with no desire to purchase an iPhone or Android phone and previously did not care about either OS. My exposure to iOS is very limited, having only used an iPhone or iPod Touch a few times, and each experience did not make an impression on me.

Tablets were my introduction to Android. I purchased a refurb Nook Color from B&N for $150 and have CM7 running on it. The user experience so far has been fantastic and apps run with no issues. With that said, it's not perfect (not a fan of the sliding notifications).

Thanks to my Android experience with a "cheap $100 tablet", if an Android phone with a BB style keypad were to be released, I'd switch in a heartbeat.

I think Sony has a couple of those models.
 

lxskllr

No Lifer
Nov 30, 2004
60,023
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Have you tried Debian for MIPS? I assume that is what you have? I haven't but i might do so if i get the time, since i'm retired i should have more time than i do... i wonder where all those endless hours of doing nothing went?

No I haven't. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the way it's all setup. I put a little time into it every now and again, but I haven't been especially motivated.

My next project is compiling apps for a MIPS cpu. I want a decent keyboard for my unit, and the compatible apps have been lacking. There's a shocking dearth of libre software available for these systems. I'm a little surprised tbh. I've often thought I'd like to get into programming. Android might be a perfect outlet for that. There's a lot of stuff I could use, but either aren't available, or don't have the features I want. I could give the Market some GPL lovin' :^)
 

dwell

pics?
Oct 9, 1999
5,185
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Not really, what is going to hurt Android is that the market is full right now, they need a new bright shining model which i think is their intent and thus they bought Motorola.

Google already puts out a "bright shining model" once a year (Nexus) and not one of those phones have ever sold anywhere near where iPhone or even most of the Galaxy phones have sold.
 
Jun 26, 2007
11,925
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No I haven't. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the way it's all setup. I put a little time into it every now and again, but I haven't been especially motivated.

My next project is compiling apps for a MIPS cpu. I want a decent keyboard for my unit, and the compatible apps have been lacking. There's a shocking dearth of libre software available for these systems. I'm a little surprised tbh. I've often thought I'd like to get into programming. Android might be a perfect outlet for that. There's a lot of stuff I could use, but either aren't available, or don't have the features I want. I could give the Market some GPL lovin' :^)

It's your future.. i forsee problems. ;)

I know full well about the keyboards available, for me it was as simple as rooting and upgrading to 4.0.3 and i had the keyboard i wanted, recompiling isn't always as easy as you might think, the calls are different on each chipset and you might get strange results.

But hey, go for it and figure it out, it's the only way to learn. :)

And hey, if you do get into the market, i might be using YOUR keyboard on my next gadget. :)
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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And Android still beat Apple handily over the holidays.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57355321-93/android-overtakes-apples-ios-during-holiday-season/

The 4S "surge" in November was a fluke for Apple, they will need more than a few months of bloated hype to take the lead.

Chitika found that iOS took the lead in November with 51.7 percent of traffic seen on its ad network, followed by Google with 46.1 percent. But as the holiday season came into full bloom in December, Android grabbed the lead with a 51.6 percent share, leaving iOS in second place with 46.5 percent.

Chitika noted that Android hit holiday buyers with a variety of mobile devices. Google's Android chief Andy Rubin recently touted that 3.7 million Android devices were activated the weekend of Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Rubin aso revealed that 700,000 Android devices are being activated daily.

Apple has of course remained a dominant force in the smartphone arena. But it's been getting stung by a nest of Android rivals, including HTC, Motorola, and especially Samsung. Combine the vast number of devices with the surge in demand, and Android continues to scoop up market share.
...
Google also continues to build up its Android Market with around 400,000 apps now available. Though Apple has well over 500,000, Google has lately been able to increase the pace at which new apps become available.

Once Droid passes Apple's number of apps this quarter, it will solidify its death grip as more and more devs defect from Apple.
 
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Jun 26, 2007
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Google already puts out a "bright shining model" once a year (Nexus) and not one of those phones have ever sold anywhere near where iPhone or even most of the Galaxy phones have sold.

No one cares about the Nexus, but Samsung is outselling Apple alone and then there is HTC, ZTE, Sony and a sheitload of others.

The point would be to release a model like Motorola once did with the Razr, one that will put all apple products in the background, that is what i meant and i made it no secret either.

Will it work? Your guess is as good as mine...

Personally i hope it will for no other reason than that i hate yesterdays tech being sold as if it was something new.
 

RavenSEAL

Diamond Member
Jan 4, 2010
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http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/01/11/why-android-will-die/



I agree that android is dying, but fragmentation probably isn't the main reason.
I think it's rather OEM's inability to offer anything close to the iPhone, iPad in terms of build quality.

your thoughts?

Y0UJC.png
 

dwell

pics?
Oct 9, 1999
5,185
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And Android still beat Apple handily over the holidays.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57355321-93/android-overtakes-apples-ios-during-holiday-season/

The 4S "surge" in November was a fluke for Apple, they will need more than a few months of bloated hype to take the lead.

Uh, 6.8 million iOS + Android devices were activated on Christmas Day alone. By Google's own admission 3.7M Android devices were activated on 12/24 and 12/25. Unless a large majority of those Android sales were on 12/25 (which by Google's explicit inclusion of 12/24 it's not likely) Android got its ass handed to them by Apple this Christmas.

Once Droid passes Apple's number of apps this quarter, it will solidify its death grip as more and more devs defect from Apple.

Despite Android's growth no devs have defected to Android from iOS. iOS continues to dominate in leading application development. Nearly every major app that eventually ends up on Android is a half-baked iOS port.

12-13-2011%206-15-24%20AM-resized-600.png
 
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shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
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To be fair, I would love it if Adobe just died, and took their fucking Flash and PDF with them.
 

alent1234

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2002
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And Android still beat Apple handily over the holidays.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57355321-93/android-overtakes-apples-ios-during-holiday-season/

The 4S "surge" in November was a fluke for Apple, they will need more than a few months of bloated hype to take the lead.



Once Droid passes Apple's number of apps this quarter, it will solidify its death grip as more and more devs defect from Apple.

there are figures out there that apple activated 1.6 million more devices around x-mas time than android.

and apple's suppliers have either reported earnings or upped their estimates for the 4th quarter. apple is predicted to have a monster 4th quarter with over 30 million iphones sold. some estimates say 35-40 million
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,928
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Uh, 6.8 million iOS + Android devices were activated on Christmas Day alone. By Google's own admission 3.7M Android devices were activated on 12/24 and 12/25. Unless a large majority of those Android sales were on 12/25 (which by Google's explicit inclusion of 12/24 it's not likely) Android got its ass handed to them by Apple this Christmas.



Despite Android's growth no devs have defected to Android from iOS. iOS continues to dominate in leading application development. Nearly every major app that eventually ends up on Android is a half-baked iOS port.

First off, learn to link: Where are you getting this 6.8 million on xmas day? Fix your lame link with an actual source.

Android will soon surpass Apple this quarter in apps so your graph will be changing in the next 6 months. To quote Eric Schmidt: "“My prediction is that six months from now, you’ll say the opposite [regarding which company will be the king of apps]."

Either way, most apps port fine to Droid and they're either free or cheaper.

Last, 5,000+ new businesses per day are joining Google Apps... what do you think this means for the future of Droid?
http://techcrunch.com/2011/09/01/er...as-40m-users-adding-5k-new-companies-per-day/
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
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there are figures out there that apple activated 1.6 million more devices around x-mas time than android.

and apple's suppliers have either reported earnings or upped their estimates for the 4th quarter. apple is predicted to have a monster 4th quarter with over 30 million iphones sold. some estimates say 35-40 million

Chitka says Droid beat iOS over the holidays, sorry.

Chitika found that iOS took the lead in November with 51.7 percent of traffic seen on its ad network, followed by Google with 46.1 percent. But as the holiday season came into full bloom in December, Android grabbed the lead with a 51.6 percent share, leaving iOS in second place with 46.5 percent.

Already posted the link but here it is again:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57355321-93/android-overtakes-apples-ios-during-holiday-season/
 

alent1234

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,915
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and there are other companies that track these things in different ways and they have different numbers
 

Sinsear

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2007
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yea i saw that, the guy can go suck a lemon. I got a kindle fire for xmas and i fricken love it. yes its not as powerful, big, nor have as many apps as a iPod2 but it does what i want. i can watch netflix, read a book, surf the web. play games, read gmail... and about 7 hours of battery life with wifi turned off. for $199 it delivers everything that i i would want. compared to $500+ for a iPad

oh and OP.. Android is not going anywhere.

My sentiments exactly.
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
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As a recent user who switched to Android, my biggest disappointments were
1) that is wasn't as open as I thought it was and
2) that the basic user experience is lacking in basic functionality.

To elaborate on #1, I often criticized Apple while showing off features that I could only use on a jailbroken iOS device, which I blamed on their restrictive software ecosystem and direct interest in continuing an "upgrade cycle" with arbitrary restrictions. I often told interested people that Android devices could do those very same things without needing to be "hacked." The problem is, the two examples I used were:
SpringFlash + Activator to activate the LED Flash as a torch/flashlight by double-pressing the lock button (even on the lock-screen)
Numeric battery life indicator option disabled by settings app on perfectly capable devices after hardware ID check
I bought a Sony Ericsson Xperia PLAY 4G (R800at) phone with Android 2.3 Gingerbread and soon realized that there was no way to approximate SpringFlash + Activator without a custom ROM on an unlocked or hacked bootloader and that there was no numeric battery option in the base version and approximating it required rooting the phone to replace parts of the OS with customizations from another ODM's Android distro who did Google's work for them.

Both are "hacks" and both are less straight-forward than a typical iOS jailbreak. In fact, one didn't even need to JB to get numeric battery on an iPhone, iPhone 3G, iPod Touch, or iPod Touch 2G: You could enable it on a supported device and load the iTunes backup on the old device and your settings will follow. And, before anyone says anything about notification bar apps that approximate having a numeric battery indicator, any Android Market app doing that requires an active monitoring application that kills battery life and wastes screen real estate (no way to disable the other indicator), so it is not the same thing at all.

Now, to elaborate on #2, watch Mission Impossible IV: Ghost Protocol. They mention how much time they have left, set a count-down timer on their iPhone 4, and go about their business. I used the same feature daily for many small tasks. This BASIC FEATURE does not exist on Google's straight-up Android build. I used it CONSTANTLY. When I have 30 minutes to prepare for something, I have to go create and save an alarm set for the appropriate time to equal the time I have left. Not only does this take 10x longer, if I don't also go delete the last alarm I created for such a temporary thing, I will quickly have a screen full of old useless alarms to manage. You know what else I used daily that doesn't exist on the basic Android distro? Notes. I'm serious. It's missing FREAKING NOTES! There is no notepad. Nothing. You might as well email yourself. Granted, there are many options for both of these on the Android Market, but choosing one is equal to trusting one and that should not be something I need to do for BASIC functionality.

Despite HATING on Apple, I am actually tempted to bring an iPod Touch to work to compensate for my Android phone's lack of basic features. For this to even be a consideration, Google has failed. Yes, your [Insert Manufacturer] [Insert Device Name] may have a notes app or an alarm with a timer, but Google's BASIC platform does not include the functionality and, thus, neither my R800at nor my HP TouchPad running fancy-schmancy CyanogenMod 7 have the basic features of my iPod Touch. That. Is. FAIL.

Now, 1 and 2 aren't the only things. There's also out-right irresponsible and sloppy presentation of their own supporting products, like Google Voice integration. For example, iMessage and SMS GV Extensions on iOS, BBM on BlackBerry, Live Messenger on Windows Phone 7, etc have shown that integrating free messaging services with the native text/SMS on smart phones is not only a feature people are starting to expect, it it becoming an industry STANDARD. Now, I assumed all along that Google Voice could replace the native messaging app. Indeed: If I pick something that would take me to the native Messages app, I get prompted to select between it and Google Voice, but if I replace the app with it and set it as default, I get several problems:
I can't rename it to "SMS" or "Messaging" nor can I have it show only those without voicemail and call history
When someone texts my cell number directly, I can't reply from Google Voice without great effort involving determining the exact number it came from and responding to it from Google Voice
I can't send a message with a poor signal and have it sent later or marked, instead having it held hostage on a screen while it makes a futile attempt to connect to the Internet
Despite consumer expectations of proper free integration like the rest of the smartphone industry has moved to, the settings option to receive incoming messages/notifications "also through the Messages app" actually forwards them as billable SMS messages to your number without warning causing unexpected charges.

Now, I never used iMessage because I never upgraded my iOS device to iOS5, but SMS GV Extensions eliminated the first, second and third issue by integrating transparently with the native app.

The last one is infuriatingly sloppy and unique to Google. There is no way they would allow you to configure SMS forwarding online without telling you of potential fees and explaining that you will be responsible for charges. Also, forwarding them to your number is not the same thing at all as also receiving through the app. This is an inexcusably obvious distinction and heads should roll. I mean, I thought I found exactly the option I was looking for... exactly the option I EXPECTED to find, and even when CAREFULLY reading and determining that it could have meant nothing else, I find that it did mean exactly what I had ruled out. "No, they couldn't be that stupid." YES. THEY. CAN. Hello $30 texting bill for a guy who specifically used it to avoid paying for text messages. *grrrrr*

Now there is no visual voicemail standard for Android but that would be fine if I could use Google Voice properly with voicemail forwarding. Unfortunately, like SMS, which I already pointed out has no way to set up a GV app/icon/shortcut/widget that only presents SMS messages, there is no way to make a "voicemail" GV app/icon/shortcut/wodget. This makes it a poor substitute app for the native messaging and worsens the clusterF$!@# of having all your missed calls and texts messages littering your list of VMs and vice versa. There should be a widget for GV VVM and a widget for GV SMS and a way to make icons linking to them specifically, like Maps, Lattitude, Navigation, etc are all separate but integrated.

Speaking of Maps/Navigation integration with multi-tasking: WORST IMPLEMENTATION EVAR! Let me give you an example. I started driving to a Christmas dinner at my Boss' home on Christmas Eve without actually getting the address. I knew that the subdivision was off of a "Jodeco" road that was about an hour away and that he would get back to me with the actual address when I was about half way there. I started by pulling up Maps, letting GPS get a fix on my location, searching "Jodeco" and finding a "Jodeco Self-Service Gas Station" or something like that in the general area, calculated driving directions, and then tapped the little drop-down that takes me to the navigation app. I did not realize that it was a different app because it is presented the same way as other Maps options. Anyway, when he called with the actual address, I pulled over and carefully entered the address into Maps and generated driving directions almost exactly like before. Once again, I selected "Navigation" from the drop-down. It took me to the navigation app and I began following its instructions. Actually, I thought to check the destination address again but did not see any such option in the Navigation app. I expect it to be displayed front and center at all times. After poking around really quickly, I realized that I didn't have much time and would just have to trust that Maps handed off the address like it should have. Just to make sure that my digging through the Navigation for the destination address didn't change anything important, I actually calculated driving directions to the exact address in Maps and linked back to Navigation a second time (remember: Navigation acts like it's just another "view" within Maps and this is how I was treating it). Sure enough, I'm already late when I "arrive" at Jodeco Gas. #!%@!$#! This was actually VERY far away from my intended destination, and so I was very late upon arriving there. What's worse is that there was no easy way to kill the app and allow Maps to set the destination as it did the first time. It takes WAY too much effort to go through 50+ running apps and background processes to find it and kill it and even that requires knowing where to find the buried application management settings. For most people, it's probably easier just to reboot, especially when driving and being unable to legally poke around through the settings and such.

First of all, there should have been a very obvious app-switching GUI animation to make it clear that it switched to an already-running application. Second, it should have prompted even the first time to accept the destination address passed to it and it should specifically mention overriding it with a list of the two destinations when linked/passed to a second time. Instead, it doesn't even mention a thing about the parameters passed to it that it completely ignored just because it was already running. Despite user and application execution/interaction/management being the very basis of an operating system's function, this is as unrefined as I could possibly expect any OS application management to be. That means if fails at the primary functions of an OS, which is unforgivable.

Remember: I am a recently new Android user. My experience is from someone WILLINGLY leaving Apple to embrace Android. I am sticking with it, but mostly because there is no good alternative that works with my Sony Ericsson MBW-150 Bluetooth watch, Parrot SK4000 Motorcycle kit, and integrated game controls (huge classic gamer) and I am hoping ICS fixes a lot of my concerns. I come from the perspective of an iOS HATER, but even I have to admit where Android fails and iOS excels. Gingerbread seems like something I would not have released in 2008 if I were in charge of the project at Google and yet it was the very latest version for phones back when I got it in November (few months ago). That is truly a sad result for the effort and time invested in beating iOS.
 

alent1234

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,915
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i had a HTC Inspire for 6 months last year and Google Nav was crap. every time i put my phone down it would lose GPS lock. i thought it was AT&T since only a moron would code a GPS navigation app to use real GPS satellites for location like this. on the internets people kept saying it was my phone.

got a droid pro at work and same thing. it loses GPS when i put it down inside the car.

dump the HTC phone and got a 4S on release day. Waze with real time traffic is free and it works even if i put my phone down. even when i had my 3GS it would work with mapquest when i put my phone down near the transmission.
 

dwell

pics?
Oct 9, 1999
5,185
2
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First off, learn to link: Where are you getting this 6.8 million on xmas day? Fix your lame link with an actual source.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-57...-hit-record-on-christmas-again/?tag=mncol;txt

In a report issued today, Flurry says that the number of Android and iOS devices activated on Christmas Day jumped 353 percent over the number of activations from the first 20 days of December, and 140 percent from the same day last year.
All told, the firm says activations from both platforms came in at more than 6.8 million devices, up from the 1.5 million devices a day average earlier in the month. For the sake of comparison, Flurry recorded 2.8 million device activations on Christmas Day in 2010.

Android will soon surpass Apple this quarter in apps so your graph will be changing in the next 6 months. To quote Eric Schmidt: "“My prediction is that six months from now, you’ll say the opposite [regarding which company will be the king of apps]."

You do know Eric Schmidt is the joke of the industry and everything he says is openly mocked by the tech press? Ever heard the phrase, "Schmidt my Chairman says"?

Marketshare != platform domination. Look at my chart from Flurry application development. Despite Android's growth, development has shrunk in proportion to that of iOS.
 

alent1234

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2002
3,915
0
0
first thing i noticed in the android market is that there is a huge number of live wallpaper apps. in the app store the wallpaper apps will have dozens of wallpapers per app. not one per app
 

Markbnj

Elite Member <br>Moderator Emeritus
Moderator
Sep 16, 2005
15,682
14
81
www.markbetz.net
Can you explain to me what "post-PC" even means? What definition of Personal Computer are we using?

To me Laptops, desktops, tablets, and smartphones. Different devices and no one is a replacement for the other.

Well I think in this case they mean 'PC' as in desktop and laptop computers with a hard drive for storage. I agree with what you're saying, though. Laptops are functional replacements for desktops, and I believe sales of traditional desktop computers are way down. Smartphones and mobile devices don't necessarily replace laptops; there is some overlap. Still, I think the phrase 'post-PC' as it was used has some relevance.
 

Kev

Lifer
Dec 17, 2001
16,367
4
81
And Android still beat Apple handily over the holidays.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57355321-93/android-overtakes-apples-ios-during-holiday-season/

The 4S "surge" in November was a fluke for Apple, they will need more than a few months of bloated hype to take the lead.



Once Droid passes Apple's number of apps this quarter, it will solidify its death grip as more and more devs defect from Apple.

Defect from apple? LOL

http://www.slashgear.com/apple-app-store-sees-6x-revenue-versus-android-in-top-apps-21203749/
 

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
80,287
17,081
136
Not just you.

Article is pretty much a joke.

The upgrade argument is bunk to me. There is no reason to expect to run newer version of software 2 years after the device is released. To use the desktop argument, just because you can run windows 95 does not mean you should also be able to run windows XP. Sure the small updated 2.0 - 2.2 should be available and for the most part are.

There is no guarantee that your device will support future versions of software, you bought that specific phone, with that specific version, with the apps that run on that version, and maybe some small tweaks, that's what you get.

Its easier with apple. Just buy a new phone, laptop and tablet every year. Buy a new desktop every two years.