Why do you think that the sign of success can only be determined by if they have a product to show you? You don't see most of the products coming from other fabs yet they can survive. If they are investing heavily in FDSOI and have the best RF and have the number of interested customers that they appear to have I bet they'll do quite well.
Its possible, but its not like no one else is doing that or couldn't do that if demand does in fact grow substantially. Plus those companies will have advanced Finfet processes they can adapt/utilize aspects of to get there, GF no longer will (which means they can pretty quickly be put at a disadvantage in FD-SOI).
This is obviously coming from PC enthusiast perspective (so yes, GF can make money and even do well, it just won't be with chips that leading edge computing people get terribly hyped about - that doesn't mean they won't benefit from them, as more efficient wireless chips will help - for VR to take off I think it'll need to be wireless and that means smaller and more efficient wireless chips). I have my doubts that we'll be seeing high performance (by that I mean at the time, not previous high end) ARM designs at GF either. I would actually like to be proven wrong (and also for GF to prove they can make a competitive process).
And I'm full on not buying Nosta's hype because he's been spouting crazy nonsense like this for years and it has never materialized like he said (at this point its almost total opposite of what he says, or its years behind schedule). He just doesn't want to accept that. He refuses to accept that GF's FDX has limitations that means only certain chips will perform really well on them (which does not include his wonder CPU that he's been posting for years about as well), and that he thinks GF is actually becoming true leading edge despite them outright saying they're intentionally not doing that any more. My issue there is him intentionally trying to distort facts to support his beliefs.
Im not saying here that GF will create a 7FDX but since FDX is planar, what makes you think they need 7nm FinFet to create 7nm FDX ???
Also, it seems that FD-SOI is more suited for IoT, Automotive and RF. GF has a long time expertise with SOI and they seems to think that FD-SOI will have a big TAM the coming years. Development cost seems to be smaller than FinFets and number of customers to become larger for FDX than FinFets.
I wouldnt count out Mobile Companies to produce Mobile SoCs at 12FDX in 2020 perhaps.
Yeah, have fun with that when its supposed to be comparable to 7nm FF, which companies are making those types of SoCs on that process
this year. If that doesn't key you off to the fact that its not going to be leading edge chips using GF, I don't know what will. And that's if GF actually delivers on 12FDX in 2020, which I have my doubts on to be frank. GF has to first prove their process, and then woo companies. The thing is, those companies aren't going to just wait around, so that means they have to decide to design around finfet or planar. I don't know, maybe its possible for them to design it for finfet and then alter it fairly easily for planar should that prove worthwhile. But if they do wait around, their competition is going to already be producing chips (selling actual products), and working on their next gen stuff (on potentially better process, its not like FF development will be standing still).
And let's not forget, GF has had major problems with execution. So, great, their 22FDX is finally decent. Yay, I guess. In the meantime we've had Nosta telling us that it was going to come raging out and squash 16/14FF for years, and the industry is moving on to 7FF now. Its here now, not "on the roadmap".
Samsung explains it a bit better:
Essentially, the FinFET back-end will be reused for the next FDSOI node. Basically, Samsung could do (mature back-end from):
28FDS -> 18FDS(14LPP) -> 15FDS(11LPP) -> 11FDS(7LPP) -> 8FDS(4GAA)
This is to make the FDSOI node cheaper than the FinFET node at initial consumption. As FDSOI will always be cheaper than FinFET @ same node.
Er, I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you saying FDSOI, when it initially starts, to be cheaper (in which case your claim about it
always being cheaper wouldn't be true if they weren't utilizing the same node FinFET back end), or are you saying for FDX to be cheaper when both are starting out it needs the FF backend development (which, well no duh that'd be cheaper, and the reason it'd "always be cheaper" is because its behind and using the FF backend to get there not because its superior absolutely). Plus since GF is giving up having that matured development post 12nm, that means their next FDX will be going up against a mature FinFET from a company doing much higher volume production. Sounds to me like there's a very good chance that 7nm FDX at GF might not be cheaper than 7FF for 5+ years. Meanwhile companies can be producing at TSMC for years before they'd even have the option to consider GF FDX at similar node. That would be a losing proposition for GF I'd think. Heck, even for companies where FDX at the previous node can be equal to FF at the new node, that still means years of delay between when they can produce on the FDX previous node (and that's at "FD-SOI leading edge GF") for 7 FF vs 12FDX.
The thing is, it won't be going up against initial FinFET, it'll be going up against FinFET that is already up and running and tweaked even, for probably a good 2-3 years.
Also remember, this is a situation where other factors come in (so sure if its the same company offering both, FDSOI should be cheaper, but when competing against another company that has their process up and running for years while you're just now trying to get into volume production without the benefit of the FF developed back end, that very possibly means your FDSOI is not cheaper than their FinFET, and performance benefits could very quickly go out the window depending on your chip).