Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

[Ottonomous]

How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.

 

[MrTeal]

According to several companies (I am posting WCCFTech), Instead of NV selling to individuals, they sold $175 million worth of 30x0 series cards to miners.

NVIDIA Allegedly Sold $175 Million Worth of Ampere GeForce RTX 30 GPUs To Crypto Miners, Could Be A Contributing Factor Behind Immense Shortages

Financial analysts have suggested that NVIDIA sold $175 Million worth of GeForce RTX 30 Ampere gaming GPUs to crypto miners.

wccftech.com

At MSRP that's a quarter million 3080s.

Wow, if true.

 

[Heartbreaker]

According to several companies (I am posting WCCFTech), Instead of NV selling to individuals, they sold $175 million worth of 30x0 series cards to miners.

The "several companies" is just the same BS being repeated by the rumor circle.

It's just COVID driven product shortage under demand. Just like PS5, XBSX, AMD 6000 GPU, AMD 5000 series CPUs.

Basically any new tech people want is in shortage.

 

[Mopetar]

At MSRP that's a quarter million 3080s.

Wow, if true.

If you hear something that incredible then it probably isn't.

 

[MrTeal]

If you hear something that incredible then it probably isn't.

Generally yeah. Unfortunately the Barron’s article is behind a pay wall, but if it does come from analysts at a bank with 46B in revenue and a trillion and a half in assets it has a little more credibility than the friend of a friend who’s brother works at a courier in Shenzhen and said they were shipping cards straight to mining farms.

 

[Mopetar]

Generally yeah. Unfortunately the Barron’s article is behind a pay wall, but if it does come from analysts at a bank with 46B in revenue and a trillion and a half in assets it has a little more credibility than the friend of a friend who’s brother works at a courier in Shenzhen and said they were shipping cards straight to mining farms.

It doesn't matter if it comes from someone who works for an organization that has some reputation for credibility if it's something that can't be independently verified and flies in the face of all logic and reason. A few years ago Bloomberg ran a story about Chinese spy chips that were embedded in Apple and Amazon server hardware. An incredulous claim to say the least, but it's from Bloomberg which is also a large and prestigious brand in the financial world.

Putting a quarter million GA-102 dies into the market would obviously go a long way to taking care of the massive consumer demand if not eliminate the initial spike entirely. You have to explain why Nvidia would alienate their customers and potentially risk them buying an AMD card instead. As I said, it's a story that doesn't make much sense regardless of where it comes from and a reputation isn't better evidence than common sense.

 

[MrTeal]

It doesn't matter if it comes from someone who works for an organization that has some reputation for credibility if it's something that can't be independently verified and flies in the face of all logic and reason. A few years ago Bloomberg ran a story about Chinese spy chips that were embedded in Apple and Amazon server hardware. An incredulous claim to say the least, but it's from Bloomberg which is also a large and prestigious brand in the financial world.

Putting a quarter million GA-102 dies into the market would obviously go a long way to taking care of the massive consumer demand if not eliminate the initial spike entirely. You have to explain why Nvidia would alienate their customers and potentially risk them buying an AMD card instead. As I said, it's a story that doesn't make much sense regardless of where it comes from and a reputation isn't better evidence than common sense.

Yeah, not saying it is true, just the at least the source seems to be a little more credible than the average wcctech source of a random post on chiphell.

The number is staggeringly high, but we really don't know what percentage of their Ampere sales that really is. If a large number of dies from AIBs or direct from nVidia went straight to mining because they paid in advance, it could make sense. If an AIB can sell a whole lot of bare cards with no packaging, warranty, or channel markup straight to a mining farm for anything close to MSRP, that has to be incredibly tempting.

Of course, it could also be a campfire story changing every time it passes from one person to another. If it was instead that they sold $175M of GPUs into the mining sector instead of Ampere specifically, it's not such a stretch to imagine.

 

[A///]

All but confirmed. Its a hybrid between the 3080 and 3090. It has 20GB of RAM using the 3090's double sided PCB, and looks like it will basically replace the 3090 from a performance standpoint.

Cheers. Yes, I got the same vibe while on IRC with some people I've known for a long time. The 3090 may be sold in limited quantities in the future, but the 3080 Ti seems to be the future high end. NVidia said their supply should be normal by February. If the claim holds water, I should be able to grab one by then. AMD's 6900XT is amazing, as is the entire lineup, but the lack of DLSS, better encoder, and other minute features hampers my plans on moving to 1440p or 4K gaming in the future. If AI upscaling was not a thing, then the AMD cards would be a no brainer.

 

[Shamrock]

If you hear something that incredible then it probably isn't.

Well, here is more evidence. It was during NV's earnings call.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Well, here is more evidence. It was during NV's earnings call.

That isn't NV's earning call.

Why are you linking a video, reading a web page? That doesn't increase the veracity.

 

[Shamrock]

It was revealed during the earnings call. But here, let me help you find more articles. The last one is the actual article from my posted video.

I would post the original article by Barron's, but it's behind a paywall, however, tweaktown posted the excerpt from Barron's

NVIDIA Sold $175 Million Worth of Ampere GeForce RTX 30 GPUs To Crypto Miners

Reason behind the RTX 3000 GPU shortage is NVIDIA’s alleged sales to Crypto Miners

thinkcomputers.org

Can't buy a new Ampere GPU? That's because NVIDIA sold them to miners - NewsBreak

NVIDIA has reportedly sold a large chunk of its next-gen Ampere GPUs to miners, with reports suggesting $175 million worth. Yeah it's going to be months before you can buy a new GeForce RT X30 series cards -- and that's directly from NVIDIA. But now, we're hearing why there's so little...

www.newsbreak.com

Can't buy a new Ampere GPU? That's because NVIDIA sold them to miners

NVIDIA has reportedly sold a large chunk of its next-gen Ampere GPUs to miners, with reports suggesting $175 million worth.

www.tweaktown.com

Nvidia Posts Record Q3 Earnings, Sales of GPUs to Crypto Miners Reach $175 Million – Hardware Bitcoin News

Nvidia released its earnings for the third fiscal quarter of 2021 this week, showing better-than-expected results, driven by sales of its graphics

news.bitcoin.com

 

[Heartbreaker]

It was revealed during the earnings call. But here, let me help you find more articles. The last one is the actual article from my posted video.

It was NOT revealed during the earnings call. The only thing in the earnings call was the overall gaming revenue numbers. Not that Ampere cards were sold to miners.

Are you unaware that rumor sites, just copy (and exaggerate) rumors from each other? Do you think there is value from posting more sites posting a copied rumor?

There isn't. Repeating the same thing over again, doesn't make it true. Even if you find more clowns to repeat it.

Here is the original source. It looks to be speculation. And if you want to see more you have to sign up for site subscription. I bet he gets a bonus for every signup driven by people wanting to see the details of this BS:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ho...STS_technology&refsec=hp_INTERESTS_technology


IMO, this looks to be one guy's pay-walled click bait speculation. Which is partially revealed to be something along the lines of Miners bought cards before, so they are buying them now... meant to feed into the current anger about part shortages.


BTW, Here is the actual earnings call completely transcribed. There isn't a single word about crypto miners:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...g-on-q3-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

 

[moonbogg]

Time to dust off my pitch fork.

 

[amenx]

GPUs are not as efficient in mining anymore vs dedicated ASIC HW. Plus theres an upcoming upgrade of the ethereum blockchain (eth 2.0) that requires more efficient mining HW than current cards can deliver.

Pretty sure Nvidia prioritizes gamer sales as more strategically important to them than quick buck sales to miners. For one, their gaming customers can easily turn to AMD (who now have very capable products) or to consoles which are also a viable alternative now. In other words, Nvidia would be committing hara-kiri to their gaming business and market share if they sold too much inventory to miners at this crucial stage, esp when AMD is posing their biggest threat to them in years.

 

[Krteq]

Heh... third attempt?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1329618479633162240

 

[Mopetar]

That certainly would be a sweet spot in terms of performance. Do you think they'd go with 20 GB of VRAM on that card as well, or just 10 GB? There isn't a lot room for 2 models in the $500 - $700 price range this has to slot into.

 

[moonbogg]

They need something as powerful or better than a 6800XT with at least 16GB of ram for $650 to compete. That doesn't sound like an Nvidia-like thing to do. They will probably give us another 10GB card for $600 and tell us to just buy it. A 3070 Ti with enough ram and slightly slower than a 3080 might be a good fit, although that would let the 6800 XT run away with the performance lead in many titles and at the most popular resolutions. The 3080 isn't fast enough as it is to beat the 6800 XT in enough scenarios for a clear win, so going any slower wouldn't be good enough, but they can't release an X70 card that matches a 3080 while having more ram for less money.
However, if they ditch the GDDR6X and go for regular GDDR6 on a 3070 Ti, then that could be the excuse they need to match 3080 performance. They could just say that the 3080 has premium ram still, but no one will care. I don't think Nvidia can properly compete this round. Maybe next time.

 

[mohit9206]

So 3060 is rumoured to come in January with two models - 6 and 12 GB. 12gb model might use faster memory. No idea about pricing. Maybe $299 and $349?

 

[linkgoron]

So 3060 is rumoured to come in January with two models - 6 and 12 GB. 12gb model might use faster memory. No idea about pricing. Maybe $299 and $349?

It would end up being a bit weird having a 8GB 3060ti and 12GB 3060, but 6GB was already too low with the original 2060.

 

[Mopetar]

They need something as powerful or better than a 6800XT with at least 16GB of ram for $650 to compete. That doesn't sound like an Nvidia-like thing to do. They will probably give us another 10GB card for $600 and tell us to just buy it. A 3070 Ti with enough ram and slightly slower than a 3080 might be a good fit, although that would let the 6800 XT run away with the performance lead in many titles and at the most popular resolutions. The 3080 isn't fast enough as it is to beat the 6800 XT in enough scenarios for a clear win, so going any slower wouldn't be good enough, but they can't release an X70 card that matches a 3080 while having more ram for less money.
However, if they ditch the GDDR6X and go for regular GDDR6 on a 3070 Ti, then that could be the excuse they need to match 3080 performance. They could just say that the 3080 has premium ram still, but no one will care. I don't think Nvidia can properly compete this round. Maybe next time.

Maybe that's true, sometime next summer, but right now Nvidia (and AMD too for that matter) need to get cards on shelves. Price and exact specifications don't matter that much (a competitor card might be 7% slower, but no card at all is 100% slower) if practically no one can get cards from either manufacturer.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Maybe that's true, sometime next summer, but right now Nvidia (and AMD too for that matter) need to get cards on shelves. Price and exact specifications don't matter that much (a competitor card might be 7% slower, but no card at all is 100% slower) if practically no one can get cards from either manufacturer.

Even then it's questionable if they need to do anything more to compete. From what I have seen online. Many if not most would still be choosing the 3080 over the 6800XT based on Brand reputation (drivers), RTX performance, DLSS and NVenc...

But yeah, totally irrelevant for the foreseeable future, where all new generation cards are going to just sell out instantly.

 

[Mopetar]

Right now I suspect most people will take what they can get. Intel should release their GPU right now. I'm sure they'll even look like a tempting option in the current climate.

 

[moonbogg]

Right now I suspect most people will take what they can get. Intel should release their GPU right now. I'm sure they'll even look like a tempting option in the current climate.

GTX 1060 performance has been around for 4 years already. No one wants to buy an Intel branded GTX 1060 for $400.

 

[Mopetar]

GTX 1060 performance has been around for 4 years already. No one wants to buy an Intel branded GTX 1060 for $400.

Well then we can have a hearty chuckle while Intel cards sit on the shelf in the midst of a supply shortage that's causing almost every other product to be scalped at hundreds of dollars over the retail price.

I think we could all use a good laugh now.

 

[Stuka87]

GTX 1060 performance has been around for 4 years already. No one wants to buy an Intel branded GTX 1060 for $400.

Well then we can have a hearty chuckle while Intel cards sit on the shelf in the midst of a supply shortage that's causing almost every other product to be scalped at hundreds of dollars over the retail price.

I think we could all use a good laugh now.

I think the big thing to laugh at is Intel having something that actually matches a lowly GTX 1060.

 

[Mopetar]

Ya, pretty informativ

Not really. It's still based on a claim from an analyst. There's still no hard evidence that Nvidia sold any product to miners specifically.

It's no different than wccftech regurgitating the same rumor that popped up somewhere on Twitter or Reddit. Repeating something that isn't true enough times doesn't make it any more true. But it will get clicks because it's sensationalism and likely to draw outrage.

Still no evidence of any direct sales to miners or a majority of the cards actually sold through retail channels going to miners. Some quick searches show that it isn't more efficient at mining than a 5700, so miners would get those before scooping up Ampere cards.