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Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

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Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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Well, we still don't know how low the actual supply was. Do we know if they book revenue when it goes to a stockist/AIB or only eventually to a customer? They stopped making new 20xx cards for various SKU's a bit ago of course.

They're seemingly projecting identical overall revenues for the next quarter, which isn't really consistent with the idea of Ampere supply ramping up hugely at some point or being hopelessly low now.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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Well, we still don't know how low the actual supply was. Do we know if they book revenue when it goes to a stockist/AIB or only eventually to a customer? They stopped making new 20xx cards for various SKU's a bit ago of course.

They're seemingly projecting identical overall revenues for the next quarter, which isn't really consistent with the idea of Ampere supply ramping up hugely at some point or being hopelessly low now.
Yeah, actual supply is still unknown, we only have some indicators and what retailers have said (not a lot of supply). I don't know when they book revenue for sure but most likely when they send the GPU to the AIB and not sell through to customer.

For revenue, Ampere will be ramping up while Turing will be ramping down and you still have Ampere only covering 3 SKUs on the desktop and nothing so far on mobile. If they are supply side limited right now then overall revenue wouldn't change very much unless you're selling the new cards for more money than the outgoing cards which they really aren't except the 3090 (over the 2080 Ti) which is a low volume card.
 

Qwertilot

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Nov 28, 2013
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Available? Where?
Who knows? It's genuinely interesting in a way. Someone, somewhere must have got hold of a fair number to let them grow their gaming revenue by that much.

It was QoQ as well as YoY and obviously only one big thing changed last quarter.
 

Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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Who knows? It's genuinely interesting in a way. Someone, somewhere must have got hold of a fair number to let them grow their gaming revenue by that much.

It was QoQ as well as YoY and obviously only one big thing changed last quarter.
I really, really doubt their gaming increase was largely from Ampere. That +37% is equal to $613M. Does anyone believe they sold near that much worth of 3080 and 3090 in one month?
 
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Qwertilot

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Nov 28, 2013
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Well, I know. What else though? Covid wasn't a remotely new factor by this point.

What is easier to say is that they must have sold a fair amount of Ampere in the last quarter.

If you presume minimal sales of Ampere you've got to presume a genuinely amazing increase elsewhere to compensate.
 

Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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Well, I know. What else though? Covid wasn't a remotely new factor by this point.

What is easier to say is that they must have sold a fair amount of Ampere in the last quarter.

If you presume minimal sales of Ampere you've got to presume a genuinely amazing increase elsewhere to compensate.
This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
 
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Qwertilot

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Nov 28, 2013
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This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
38% increase YoY as well, so not just back to school. Maybe it was a bit Covid related somehow, goodness knows.

Strange year!
 

MrTeal

Platinum Member
Dec 7, 2003
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This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
AMD's Compute & Graphics was also up 22% QoQ despite having nothing new to offer.
I imagine this recent huge demand has really helped AMD and Nvidia clear channel inventory in the lead up to the new generation. A cursory look around shows even stock of cards like the 5700 XT are really low, and unless you absolutely need a card now spending $400 on that card seems like a pretty bad idea.
 

Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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38% increase YoY as well, so not just back to school. Maybe it was a bit Covid related somehow, goodness knows.

Strange year!
Yes, I believe the Y/Y was largely Covid related with the Q/Q being several factors including back to school (also boosted by Covid) and to a lesser degree the Ampere launch.
 

Mopetar

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Jan 31, 2011
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I really, really doubt their gaming increase was largely from Ampere. That +37% is equal to $613M. Does anyone believe they sold near that much worth of 3080 and 3090 in one month?
It seems rather unlikely given what we know about the availability of the cards. Additionally, they cut prices across the board so they'd need to sell more 3000 series cards to pull in as much revenue.

If we do a simple math experiment it's even easier to see that the numbers don't work out if you assume the increase was due to Ampere. For the sake of argument assume 5% of Ampere cards sold are 3090s, 25% are 3080s, and the remaining 70% are 3070s. The makes the average sale price of an Ampere card come out to $600, which means that they would have needed to sell about 1 million Ampere cards to generate that ~$600 million. Does anyone believe that Nvidia has produced 1 million Ampere cards that have been sold to consumers at this point?
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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Yes, I believe the Y/Y was largely Covid related with the Q/Q being several factors including back to school (also boosted by Covid) and to a lesser degree the Ampere launch.
The AMD numbers seem to suggest its probably about 50/50 - although maybe a bit less if disproportionate laptop sales.

You'd normally expect a decent boost from replacing the 2 year old top end with a new range of course, so absent the apparent(?) supply issues this would be very unremarkable.

Which does still leave the mystery of where all the Ampere cards they've clearly booked revenue from actually are.
 

Kenmitch

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Oct 10, 1999
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Available? Where?
They had 3070,3080,3090's on BestBuy earlier today. They popped in and out of stock, but were somewhat available. They even had the illusive FE 3090's for the ballers!

I snagged a 3070 for trade bait for a 6800(XT) or for my daughters boyfriends new build.
 

Stuka87

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Dec 10, 2010
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A $400 high-end card with, oh boy not again, 8GB of Vram. And yes, despite the name being X60, this is a high-end GPU at $400. The price suggests it's supposed to be high-end. It's being compared to a last-gen high-end card, yet no improvement in frame buffer capabilities. This card should cost $250 for casual 1080p gaming with that 8GB framebuffer. The framebuffer makes this a good 1660Ti replacement.
At this point, Nvidia has become Intel to me. I want to watch them burn. The gaming disease caused by their idiotic, garbage-valued products can only be cured by a hot, RED fire. It's the only way. They will never offer value to the customer again, so they need to get rekt.
$400 video cards have not been high end for ages. Thats a mid range card. And for the performance the card has, 8GB will be enough as its not fast enough for 4K. Now maybe 1440 will need more than 8GB, but we have not seen that yet.
 

Mopetar

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Jan 31, 2011
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All but confirmed. Its a hybrid between the 3080 and 3090. It has 20GB of RAM using the 3090's double sided PCB, and looks like it will basically replace the 3090 from a performance standpoint.
From the rumors I've seen it's basically a 3090 with only 20 GB of memory, which shouldn't make any difference in terms of game performance. Essentially it's just a renamed 3090 if those rumors are correct.

If the price drops to match the 6900XT then it's basically a $500 cheaper 3090, which seems much more appropriate given the performance difference between it and the 3080.
 
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CastleBravo

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Dec 6, 2019
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From the rumors I've seen it's basically a 3090 with only 20 GB of memory, which shouldn't make any difference in terms of game performance. Essentially it's just a renamed 3090 if those rumors are correct.

If the price drops to match the 6900XT then it's basically a $500 cheaper 3090, which seems much more appropriate given the performance difference between it and the 3080.
I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up like the 2080ti with an "MSRP" of $999 but an actual price of $1200+.
 
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