Question 'Ampere'/Next-gen gaming uarch speculation thread

Page 201 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
Toggle sidebar Toggle sidebar
O

Ottonomous

Senior member
May 15, 2014
559
292
136
How much is the Samsung 7nm EUV process expected to provide in terms of gains?
How will the RTX components be scaled/developed?
Any major architectural enhancements expected?
Will VRAM be bumped to 16/12/12 for the top three?
Will there be further fragmentation in the lineup? (Keeping turing at cheaper prices, while offering 'beefed up RTX' options at the top?)
Will the top card be capable of >4K60, at least 90?
Would Nvidia ever consider an HBM implementation in the gaming lineup?
Will Nvidia introduce new proprietary technologies again?

Sorry if imprudent/uncalled for, just interested in the forum member's thoughts.
 
Sort by date Sort by votes
Q

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Well, we still don't know how low the actual supply was. Do we know if they book revenue when it goes to a stockist/AIB or only eventually to a customer? They stopped making new 20xx cards for various SKU's a bit ago of course.

They're seemingly projecting identical overall revenues for the next quarter, which isn't really consistent with the idea of Ampere supply ramping up hugely at some point or being hopelessly low now.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,243
7,791
136
Qwertilot said:
Well, we still don't know how low the actual supply was. Do we know if they book revenue when it goes to a stockist/AIB or only eventually to a customer? They stopped making new 20xx cards for various SKU's a bit ago of course.

They're seemingly projecting identical overall revenues for the next quarter, which isn't really consistent with the idea of Ampere supply ramping up hugely at some point or being hopelessly low now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, actual supply is still unknown, we only have some indicators and what retailers have said (not a lot of supply). I don't know when they book revenue for sure but most likely when they send the GPU to the AIB and not sell through to customer.

For revenue, Ampere will be ramping up while Turing will be ramping down and you still have Ampere only covering 3 SKUs on the desktop and nothing so far on mobile. If they are supply side limited right now then overall revenue wouldn't change very much unless you're selling the new cards for more money than the outgoing cards which they really aren't except the 3090 (over the 2080 Ti) which is a low volume card.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,243
7,791
136
Qwertilot said:
Who knows? It's genuinely interesting in a way. Someone, somewhere must have got hold of a fair number to let them grow their gaming revenue by that much.

It was QoQ as well as YoY and obviously only one big thing changed last quarter.
Click to expand...

I really, really doubt their gaming increase was largely from Ampere. That +37% is equal to $613M. Does anyone believe they sold near that much worth of 3080 and 3090 in one month?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mopetar
Upvote 0 Downvote
Q

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Well, I know. What else though? Covid wasn't a remotely new factor by this point.

What is easier to say is that they must have sold a fair amount of Ampere in the last quarter.

If you presume minimal sales of Ampere you've got to presume a genuinely amazing increase elsewhere to compensate.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,243
7,791
136
Qwertilot said:
Well, I know. What else though? Covid wasn't a remotely new factor by this point.

What is easier to say is that they must have sold a fair amount of Ampere in the last quarter.

If you presume minimal sales of Ampere you've got to presume a genuinely amazing increase elsewhere to compensate.
Click to expand...

This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Mopetar
Upvote 0 Downvote
Q

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Hitman928 said:
This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
Click to expand...
38% increase YoY as well, so not just back to school. Maybe it was a bit Covid related somehow, goodness knows.

Strange year!
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
M

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,569
1,698
136
Hitman928 said:
This past quarter included back to school sales as well which could explain a lot of the Q/Q increase, especially with so many families and college students probably anticipating have to do school virtually.

I'm sure Ampere showed up in that gain in a meaningful way, I just highly doubt it's responsible for anywhere near the majority of it.
Click to expand...
AMD's Compute & Graphics was also up 22% QoQ despite having nothing new to offer.
I imagine this recent huge demand has really helped AMD and Nvidia clear channel inventory in the lead up to the new generation. A cursory look around shows even stock of cards like the 5700 XT are really low, and unless you absolutely need a card now spending $400 on that card seems like a pretty bad idea.
 
  • Like
Reactions: coercitiv and Hitman928
Upvote 0 Downvote
H

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,243
7,791
136
Qwertilot said:
38% increase YoY as well, so not just back to school. Maybe it was a bit Covid related somehow, goodness knows.

Strange year!
Click to expand...

Yes, I believe the Y/Y was largely Covid related with the Q/Q being several factors including back to school (also boosted by Covid) and to a lesser degree the Ampere launch.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
M

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,831
5,980
136
Hitman928 said:
I really, really doubt their gaming increase was largely from Ampere. That +37% is equal to $613M. Does anyone believe they sold near that much worth of 3080 and 3090 in one month?
Click to expand...

It seems rather unlikely given what we know about the availability of the cards. Additionally, they cut prices across the board so they'd need to sell more 3000 series cards to pull in as much revenue.

If we do a simple math experiment it's even easier to see that the numbers don't work out if you assume the increase was due to Ampere. For the sake of argument assume 5% of Ampere cards sold are 3090s, 25% are 3080s, and the remaining 70% are 3070s. The makes the average sale price of an Ampere card come out to $600, which means that they would have needed to sell about 1 million Ampere cards to generate that ~$600 million. Does anyone believe that Nvidia has produced 1 million Ampere cards that have been sold to consumers at this point?
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Q

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,604
257
126
Hitman928 said:
Yes, I believe the Y/Y was largely Covid related with the Q/Q being several factors including back to school (also boosted by Covid) and to a lesser degree the Ampere launch.
Click to expand...

The AMD numbers seem to suggest its probably about 50/50 - although maybe a bit less if disproportionate laptop sales.

You'd normally expect a decent boost from replacing the 2 year old top end with a new range of course, so absent the apparent(?) supply issues this would be very unremarkable.

Which does still leave the mystery of where all the Ampere cards they've clearly booked revenue from actually are.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
K

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,505
2,249
136
Krteq said:
Available? Where?
Click to expand...

They had 3070,3080,3090's on BestBuy earlier today. They popped in and out of stock, but were somewhat available. They even had the illusive FE 3090's for the ballers!

I snagged a 3070 for trade bait for a 6800(XT) or for my daughters boyfriends new build.
 
Upvote 0 Downvote
Stuka87

Stuka87

Diamond Member
Dec 10, 2010
6,240
2,559
136
moonbogg said:
A $400 high-end card with, oh boy not again, 8GB of Vram. And yes, despite the name being X60, this is a high-end GPU at $400. The price suggests it's supposed to be high-end. It's being compared to a last-gen high-end card, yet no improvement in frame buffer capabilities. This card should cost $250 for casual 1080p gaming with that 8GB framebuffer. The framebuffer makes this a good 1660Ti replacement.
At this point, Nvidia has become Intel to me. I want to watch them burn. The gaming disease caused by their idiotic, garbage-valued products can only be cured by a hot, RED fire. It's the only way. They will never offer value to the customer again, so they need to get rekt.
Click to expand...

$400 video cards have not been high end for ages. Thats a mid range card. And for the performance the card has, 8GB will be enough as its not fast enough for 4K. Now maybe 1440 will need more than 8GB, but we have not seen that yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ozzy702, tviceman and Heartbreaker
Upvote 0 Downvote
M

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,831
5,980
136
Stuka87 said:
All but confirmed. Its a hybrid between the 3080 and 3090. It has 20GB of RAM using the 3090's double sided PCB, and looks like it will basically replace the 3090 from a performance standpoint.
Click to expand...

From the rumors I've seen it's basically a 3090 with only 20 GB of memory, which shouldn't make any difference in terms of game performance. Essentially it's just a renamed 3090 if those rumors are correct.

If the price drops to match the 6900XT then it's basically a $500 cheaper 3090, which seems much more appropriate given the performance difference between it and the 3080.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lightmanek
Upvote 0 Downvote
C

CastleBravo

Member
Dec 6, 2019
119
271
96
Mopetar said:
From the rumors I've seen it's basically a 3090 with only 20 GB of memory, which shouldn't make any difference in terms of game performance. Essentially it's just a renamed 3090 if those rumors are correct.

If the price drops to match the 6900XT then it's basically a $500 cheaper 3090, which seems much more appropriate given the performance difference between it and the 3080.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up like the 2080ti with an "MSRP" of $999 but an actual price of $1200+.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lobz
Upvote 0 Downvote
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

COMPANY
RESOURCES
FOLLOW
Top Bottom