AMD stock up 20% after conference call! (52% in 1 day!)

[sandorski]

I got a gut feeling that the next 2 years are going to be good for AMD.

 

[senseamp]

AMD can license their patents, but surely they can't license out Intel's patents can they? Without Intel's patents, wouldn't they have to make a new chip that bypasses those particular patents?

If it's for Chinese market only, I am not even sure Intel's US patents/copyrights are relevant. I doubt China would side with Intel over it's own company's JV in patent enforcement action. AMD is probably licensing a design and not just patents. I think long term it may be a dumb move and help a future competitor. Chinese are pretty notorious for "partnering" with a foreign company and then basically copying their designs and going on their own. But in near term, it's nice easy cash that AMD desperately needs. Unless of course Intel sues and burdens them with big legal expenses, but then they can play the anti-trust card in front of a friendly regulator in China. In any case, gutsy move by AMD.

 

[RussianSensation]

Unless of course Intel sues and burdens them with big legal expenses, but then they can play the anti-trust card in front of a friendly regulator in China. In any case, gutsy move by AMD.

I was thinking the same thing. Intel has what 99-99.9% of the server market and they are going to sue anyone trying to compete against them? That's really going to fly in the Chinese court?

 

[Silverforce11]

Also, some notable highlights:

1. Zen is ontrack to achieve > 40% IPC uplift
2. Already secured several Zen OEM design wins
3. Next gen FirePro GPUs / Zen server CPUs in the pipeline
4. At least 2 new semi-custom designs wins (2H 2016 and 2017) => Likely NX and PS4 Neo.

"AMD reported that they have already started shipping Bristol Ridge APUs to OEMs since March. AMD also saw a double digit percentage increase (sequentially) in desktop discrete GPUs largely driven by increased Radeon 300 series sales in the market channel."

Looks like the predictions that AMD is going bankrupt in 2016 are also wrong (like the last 20 years in a row). :sneaky:

AMD isn't going anywhere.

All 3 current console have AMD in it, and all 3 next-gen console will again be AMD APUs. Which I believe will have much better margins for AMD this time around, as Sony/MS has to go with AMD for backwards compatibility, it gives them more leverage to bargain for a better deal.

Apple's new refresh is very likely to be Polaris 11/10 based. These guys ship a lot of volume.

With Polaris delivering winning perf/w, they will have a good chance of clawing back notebook dGPU marketshare. On the PC, they will finally have a competitive option against the 750Ti, 950 and 960 due to their power requirements.

 

[Elixer]

For all we know, the IP deal could also mean that AMD is making everything, and they are allowed to do that. It is more or less a custom CPU.

 

[DrMrLordX]

AMD also saw a double digit percentage increase (sequentially) in desktop discrete GPUs largely driven by increased Radeon 300 series sales in the market channel."

Gee I wonder why . . . *cough*

 

[senseamp]

I was thinking the same thing. Intel has what 99-99.9% of the server market and they are going to sue anyone trying to compete against them? That's really going to fly in the Chinese court?

They could possibly sue in the US for breach of contract. I think AMD made some deal with them where Intel threw some money their way, and AMD agreed to not do certain things like giving x86 licenses to third parties. In any case, if Intel did that in the US, China could go after them on anti-trust in "completely unrelated" action. But it's interesting to see AMD get into a more aggressive "better ask for forgiveness later than for permission now" mode, and effectively calling Intel's bluff.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I got a gut feeling that the next 2 years are going to be good for AMD.

Only if they capture market share faster than its lost. Because everything will keep going down the next 2 years. I would guess in 2 years x86 MPU shipments may be below 200 million. And GPU shipments also in the gutter.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I was thinking the same thing. Intel has what 99-99.9% of the server market and they are going to sue anyone trying to compete against them? That's really going to fly in the Chinese court?

US got technology export restrictions to China, that includes manufactoring.

 

[Shehriazad]

Legit glad AMD won't go down in flames just yet.


So many semicustom wins + Apple stuff. Might give them some budget to make their Zen+ really good....I mean we can already guesstimate how far Zen is gonna go. So with an actual R&D budget they might actually have something stronk with Zen+.

But in the end I'm just happy that the competition will be alive a little longer....I'd feel sad only being able to pick from Nvidia GPUs and Intel CPUs.

 

[Flapdrol1337]

I got a gut feeling that the next 2 years are going to be good for AMD.

I hope so, but I'm not sure.

Intel could ruin everything on the cpu side by simply lowering prices. Nvidia has a bit of a war chest, while amd has a debt, if there's a gpu price war amd won't make much money on those either, even if they would have a slightly better product technically. Would be good for us though, at least short term.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

 

[Flapdrol1337]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

fair enough.

 

[Glo.]

Consoles, Apple computers, PC's, laptops.

AMD is going to be everywhere. And if they will add good Zen CPU, they will survive.

 

[gorion]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

As long as you avoid defaulting.

 

[Dresdenboy]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

For anyone? Remember that even that money has to be paid back at some point in the future. "Free" is just the interest, and with increasing lending risks, the additional interest rate will make it > 0%.

 

[jpiniero]

Chinese are pretty notorious for "partnering" with a foreign company and then basically copying their designs and going on their own. But in near term, it's nice easy cash that AMD desperately needs.

This is so true and I was thinking something similar. Still, the initial $290M is more than worth it to AMD in their current state. You almost have to think of it as a bonus if China actually does pay the royalties for awhile. I have to wonder if it includes the GPU IP too.

 

[Dresdenboy]

This is so true and I was thinking something similar. Still, the initial $290M is more than worth it to AMD in their current state. You almost have to think of it as a bonus if China actually does pay the royalties for awhile. I have to wonder if it includes the GPU IP too.

GPU is not included.

I wonder, if there is a cultural advantage regarding China on Lisa Su's side. We often only look at tech facts and forget the actually important ones. ^^

 

[ShintaiDK]

For anyone? Remember that even that money has to be paid back at some point in the future. "Free" is just the interest, and with increasing lending risks, the additional interest rate will make it > 0%.

Pretty much. You can thank ECB and BOJ among others for that. Same reason I can borrow to -0.44% in my home (Yes I get money for borrowing.). Interest only loans is popular.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

For all we know, the IP deal could also mean that AMD is making everything, and they are allowed to do that. It is more or less a custom CPU.

The reason the Chinese want custom server CPUs is that they want to be sure there are no CPU-level backdoors. This means they want their own teams in on the design, and they want to manufacture them at their own fabs.

On the plus side, this means that the CPUs don't actually have to be competitive with Intel to have a market -- the Chinese will buy them if they work, even if they are slower.

 

[Udgnim]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

AMD has to maintain a certain amount of cash on hand due to loan covenants

if their cash on hand gets below a certain level, then they can potentially have loans called in on them possibly resulting in bankruptcy

 

[mrmt]

Debt/Cash doesn't matter much in a time where money is essentially free.

You are getting negative rates on your loan because the bank would lose even more money if it didn't lend it to you at that rate.

I doubt that this would be AMD's case, this company is destroying equity in a much larger rate than any negative interest rate from any central bank out there, so money for AMD wouldn't be free at all.

 

[Flash831]

"AMD reported that they have already started shipping Bristol Ridge APUs to OEMs since March. AMD also saw a double digit percentage increase (sequentially) in desktop discrete GPUs largely driven by increased Radeon 300 series sales in the market channel."

According to Lisa Su, AMD also had their second straight quarter of double-digit sequential percentage growth in mobile APU sales.

We had our second straight quarter of double-digit sequential percentage growth in mobile APU sales. We began shipping our seventh-generation Bristol Ridge APUs in March, and have secured new design wins that continue our expansion into more premium notebook offerings, including HP's new ENVY x360 convertible notebook.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/396...-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=2

 

[poohbear]

Did any of you buy when the market opened this morning? It jumped another 13% the first hour the market opened! Man, i was hesitating and figured it was overbought yesterday in aftermarket trading... and also a little chicken!!! Damn it!!!! Exciting to watch at the very least.

That's a 36% jump in one day! Congratulations to all those who have AMD stock.

 

[Abwx]

Did any of you buy when the market opened this morning? It jumped another 13% the first hour the market opened! Man, i was hesitating and figured it was overbought yesterday in aftermarket trading... and also a little chicken!!! Damn it!!!! Exciting to watch at the very least.

That's a 36% jump in one day! Congratulations to all those who have AMD stock.

Good for a day trade if you entered today but i wouldnt hold the position overnight even if the stock has the potential for much higher pricing, that said it s your money..