AMD stock up 20% after conference call! (52% in 1 day!)

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poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
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We'll see. Personally I think it will go to $4.20 levels and stay afloat of $4 until next earnings release. Depending on how certain news unfold (Zen performance, Fujitsu JV, Polaris, new consoles), it will climb further or drop again. Also we have to see Intel's reaction on the China deal, which could send AMD down sharply.

Anyway, good time for AMD investors and the guys who believed in Dr. Su and her team!
Why would Zen performance raise AMD stock? The desktop PC market is in decline....it's not exactly a thriving market so regardless of whether Zen is stellar or not, it would be a great product in a dying market. Intel is already bailing ship. How would that make AMD any more valuable as a stock given the condition of the PC market?
 
Feb 19, 2009
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Why would Zen performance raise AMD stock? The desktop PC market is in decline....it's not exactly a thriving market so regardless of whether Zen is stellar or not, it would be a great product in a dying market. Intel is already bailing ship. How would that make AMD any more valuable as a stock given the condition of the PC market?
Servers, Cloud, HPC, all need a strong CPU to compete.

Where do you think Intel makes it's 55B revenue last year and 14B profit from?

CPUs are big bucks. GPUs pale in comparison.
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
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citavia.blog.de
Why would Zen performance raise AMD stock? The desktop PC market is in decline....it's not exactly a thriving market so regardless of whether Zen is stellar or not, it would be a great product in a dying market. Intel is already bailing ship. How would that make AMD any more valuable as a stock given the condition of the PC market?
It's not the only market. And the PC market is not gone, it has shrunk. If there is a good value in a product, it might still get sold.

BTW, on the usability of insider transactions for any price indications:
Code:
Apr 1, 2016	WOLIN HARRY A 		5,933	Direct	Disposition at $2.83 - $2.83 per share.	$17,000
Feb 16, 2016	NORROD FORREST EUGENE	29,373	Direct	Disposition at $1.83 - $1.83 per share.	$54,000
Feb 9, 2016	KUMAR DEVINDER 		43,039	Direct	Disposition at $1.90 - $1.9 per share.	$82,000
 
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poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
2,285
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For people who trade, my take away from this AMD share spike is this: if aftermarket trading after a conference call is significant, i should take that as a strong indicator of how day market trading will go the next day.

Looking at this AMD trade day in particular, i posted here that it went up 20% in aftermarket trading after their conference call on Thursday (most conference calls are after the market closes). Naturally, since the aftermarket is such a small portion of the overall trading market, i assumed it would go up another 5%-10% when the day market opened the next day (Friday). It did. It went up 15% the first hour. I missed out because i couldn't pull the trigger at 9:30 am... i had to sell some stocks to free cash to buy AMD and was at work trying to do all this online, and by the time that got done i already saw it go up 15% and figured it's overbought. It wasn't. It went up another 17% by 4pm (for a 32% spike in one trading day!).

So, rule of thumb:
1). Take the aftermarket action after a conference call as an indicator of how the day market will go the next day
2) Get in early at 9:30 am (when the market opens)
3) Always have some cash ready to invest the next day.

Is that a good take away? What are the perils of this strategy? I'm new to trading but this seems like a sound strategy for 2%-5% profits the next day of trading. Am i missing something? Sure there's no guarantees, but in general it seems like a sound strategy, no?
 
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videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
6,768
0
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For people who trade, my take away from this AMD share spike is this: if aftermarket trading after a conference call is significant, i should take that as a strong indicator of how day market trading will go the next day.

Looking at this AMD trade day in particular, i posted here that it went up 20% in aftermarket trading after their conference call on Thursday (most conference calls are after the market closes). Naturally, since the aftermarket is such a small portion of the overall trading market, i assumed it would go up another 5%-10% when the day market opened the next day (Friday). It did. It went up 15% the first hour. I missed out because i couldn't pull the trigger at 9:30 am... i had to sell some stocks to free cash to buy AMD and was at work trying to do all this online, and by the time that got done i already saw it go up 15% and figured it's overbought. It wasn't. It went up another 17% by 4pm (for a 32% spike in one trading day!).

So, rule of thumb:
1). Take the aftermarket action after a conference call as an indicator of how the day market will go the next day
2) Get in early at 9:30 am
3) Always have some cash ready to invest the next day.

Is that a good take away? What are the perils of this strategy? I'm new to trading but this seems like a sound strategy for 2%-5% profits the next day of trading. Am i missing something? Sure there's no guarantees, but in general it seems like a sound strategy, no?
Why not get in on the aftermarket action? How about 9AM instead.
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
0
136
citavia.blog.de
So, rule of thumb:
1). Take the aftermarket action after a conference call as an indicator of how the day market will go the next day
2) Get in early at 9:30 am (when the market opens)
3) Always have some cash ready to invest the next day.

Is that a good take away? What are the perils of this strategy? I'm new to trading but this seems like a sound strategy for 2%-5% profits the next day of trading. Am i missing something? Sure there's no guarantees, but in general it seems like a sound strategy, no?
This needs some analysis as I also know many cases (with semis) of the next day holding the AH/PM prices and then turning back.

What might work is trading the volatility or move in any direction. But options often have rising implied volatilities before earnings.
 

Dribble

Golden Member
Aug 9, 2005
1,684
114
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AMD is getting evicted, market sees building apartments as a more productive use of their campus.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/...eamds-sunnyvale-campus-selling-to-irvine.html
I don't necessarily agree, but it's the usual Silicon Valley real estate craziness.
Not really, sounds like a smaller AMD want a smaller campus with smaller bills. They probably put in a very low offer for rent on their current campus so the current owners said no as they could get a better deal by selling. Nothing silly about that. AMD will move somewhere cheaper, and the campus owners will sell to get their money back.
 
Feb 2, 2009
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Hope you guys sold at $4 because today its down 14% at $3.42.

Still a huge profit though if you bought at $1.8-$2.0
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Hope you guys sold at $4 because today its down 14% at $3.42.

Still a huge profit though if you bought at $1.8-$2.0
Only if you bought in sizable quantity. I see a lot of people on tech forums talking about owning like 100-200 shares :p
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
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citavia.blog.de
Only if you bought in sizable quantity. I see a lot of people on tech forums talking about owning like 100-200 shares :p
Not me. ;) I'm looking for adding some more now, as the big late comers made their desired entry prices (just a guess, but typical pattern). AMD goes up quickly with INTC and NVDA, but hesitates to go down with them as much since 12:34PM.
 
Feb 5, 2006
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Not really, sounds like a smaller AMD want a smaller campus with smaller bills. They probably put in a very low offer for rent on their current campus so the current owners said no as they could get a better deal by selling. Nothing silly about that. AMD will move somewhere cheaper, and the campus owners will sell to get their money back.
You mean it's not moving back in with its parents (Fairchild) ? :)
 

poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
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Hope you guys sold at $4 because today its down 14% at $3.42.

Still a huge profit though if you bought at $1.8-$2.0
of course it went down. It went up 52% last Thursday night to Friday 4:30pm. Everyone was selling the first thing this morning to get back their earnings. Short term investors don't make 52% in one day just to hold on to it. Most people are happy to make 3-4% on a stock and then sell. You really think they were gonna wait around after making 52%?

This needs some analysis as I also know many cases (with semis) of the next day holding the AH/PM prices and then turning back.

What might work is trading the volatility or move in any direction. But options often have rising implied volatilities before earnings.
Well the aftermarket and pre-market would just be to gauge and see which way the stock is going after an earnings call. I mean, AMD was already up 21% after its earnings call in after market trading. That right there was a strong indicator to buy come 9:30am as the mass market moves in for a buying frenzy. Thought it would be up another 5-10%.... totally didn't expect the 32% jump!!!:p I imagine the $3.00 share price made everybody and their cat get in on it. Google is cost prohibitive @ $730/share...but @ $3/share my 11 year old nephew could buy 50.

Only if you bought in sizable quantity. I see a lot of people on tech forums talking about owning like 100-200 shares :p
Even if they had 200 shares at $2.00, that's a 100% return in just over a 1 month.:p
 
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rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
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So are they homeless now? Living out if a cardboard box? Because the rent on a cardboard box in California is insane.
Is trolling the only reason for your presence on this forum?
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
1,730
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citavia.blog.de
Price action still looks good to me (AMD not following INTC and NVDA).
There is some strong buying in INTC, while AMD still sees about 50/50 buy/sell ratio (some selling into strength)
 

hondaf17

Senior member
Sep 25, 2005
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Interesting....

I bought 290 shares of AMD on 7/16/2008 for $5.02 per share. Still own it at this basis to this day. Have not bought nor sold any of the original 290 shares.

In hindsight could've dollar cost averaged down, but didn't want to throw any more money at it.

Maybe it'll get back to my $5.02 in a few years or even make me some $. Time will tell, long term investor with most of my holdings.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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Interesting....

I bought 290 shares of AMD on 7/16/2008 for $5.02 per share. Still own it at this basis to this day. Have not bought nor sold any of the original 290 shares.

In hindsight could've dollar cost averaged down, but didn't want to throw any more money at it.

Maybe it'll get back to my $5.02 in a few years or even make me some $. Time will tell, long term investor with most of my holdings.
It's always tough to cost average down, very psychologically difficult. I can't tell you how many times I've let a good opportunity get away from me because I was too chicken to add more.
 
Oct 27, 2014
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It's always tough to cost average down, very psychologically difficult. I can't tell you how many times I've let a good opportunity get away from me because I was too chicken to add more.
Hopefully you guys really trust the company you put ur money into.
Like warren says, invest in solid companies and you shall not fear.

Not sure about AMD. It's more like hoping... :sneaky:
 

Dresdenboy

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2003
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hondaf17, Arachnotronic: I was chicken too, when I missed to add a bunch at end of february. That was such a nice smooth second dip (of my favourite "W" formation).

lukart: I don't blindly trust a company, that's why I do my "background research". But in trading, you actually need to analyze the behaviour of the other market participants, as they move the price, not any fact.

Currently it doesn't look that bad compared to other semis.

This might become a nice bullish flag.
 
Apr 8, 2002
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It's always tough to cost average down, very psychologically difficult. I can't tell you how many times I've let a good opportunity get away from me because I was too chicken to add more.
If you look at the long term of a good company it is easier. Been doing this the past ~year with Exxon. I wouldnt do it with AMD.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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If you look at the long term of a good company it is easier. Been doing this the past ~year with Exxon. I wouldnt do it with AMD.
True, there are stocks where you literally could put your life's savings in it and be able to sleep at night. Blue chip cos that pay fat dividends and make things/provide services that people will always need. Think telecoms (Verizon/AT&T), pharma (Johnson&Johnson), etc.

I would even argue something like a TSMC is in the category, there will always be a need for chips and they make a lot of them for a lot of companies.
 
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hondaf17

Senior member
Sep 25, 2005
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Hopefully you guys really trust the company you put ur money into.
Like warren says, invest in solid companies and you shall not fear.

Not sure about AMD. It's more like hoping... :sneaky:
Agreed. That's why it's only $1,000.

I basically view the stock market as legalized gambling.

Most of my $ is blue chips and dividend payers, and VOO (S&P ETF) but don't mind a little extra risk for small positions.

I am rooting for AMD, have always been a fan. In fact, it was me liking their CPUs that led me to investigate their stock, back in 2008.
 

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