AMD stock up 20% after conference call! (52% in 1 day!)

poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
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#1
AMD skyrocketed in after hours trading today (Thursday April 21st) by 20% after its conference call!! THAT's after hours trading alone!!! Is it safe to assume it'll jump even more tmrw morning as the market opens to the masses? They posted very positive forward stats!
 
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Mar 10, 2006
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#2
Very strong guidance relative to expectations and the cash flow from the Chinese JV should help, every little bit helps. Looks as though the big 2Q increase will be due to the ramp of some new semi-custom wins as well as perhaps some Polaris shipments.
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
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Very strong guidance relative to expectations and the cash flow from the Chinese JV should help, every little bit helps. Looks as though the big 2Q increase will be due to the ramp of some new semi-custom wins as well as perhaps some Polaris shipments.
I'm surprised the market took so long to respond, the was leaked wednesday morning and the ps4.5 was confirmed earlier than that.
 
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Jan 12, 2005
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Good for AMD, they have IP that is valuable, they should use that to make money.
 

Adored

Senior member
Mar 24, 2016
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#5
They are actually collecting quite a bit in semi-custom and IP wins, all coming together nicely at a good time with new product launches in GPU now and CPU at the end of the year. My suspicion is they are vastly underpriced but we all know what usually happens.
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
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They are actually collecting quite a bit in semi-custom and IP wins, all coming together nicely at a good time with new product launches in GPU now and CPU at the end of the year. My suspicion is they are vastly underpriced but we all know what usually happens.
they definitely have momentum now, I am confident they will have better margins going forward.
 

Hitman928

Golden Member
Apr 15, 2012
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#7
Anyone have a link to a good summary? Would be appreciated.
 
Mar 10, 2011
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They'll probably make steady cash from the new SOCs (PS4.5 and NX) and the third unannounced one that we don't know what it is.
 
Feb 5, 2006
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AMD just unilaterally licensed x86 to a Chinese company :)
Intel is going to have a sh!t fit.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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#10
AMD skyrocketed in after hours trading today (Thursday April 21st) by 20% after its conference call!! THAT's after hours trading alone!!! Is it safe to assume it'll jump even more tmrw morning as the market opens to the masses? They posted very positive forward stats!
Never safe to assume anything. Personally I think the jump is an over reaction, and the stock will slip back, at least temporarily. Long term, they still have to turn a profit at some point. But they seem to be on an upward trend.
 
Oct 10, 1999
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AMD just unilaterally licensed x86 to a Chinese company :)
Intel is going to have a sh!t fit.
AMD can license their patents, but surely they can't license out Intel's patents can they? Without Intel's patents, wouldn't they have to make a new chip that bypasses those particular patents?
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
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AMD can license their patents, but surely they can't license out Intel's patents can they? Without Intel's patents, wouldn't they have to make a new chip that bypasses those particular patents?
isnt most of x86 already expired?
 
Mar 2, 2016
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AMD lost over $100,000,000 and people think that's a good thing.
 
Oct 10, 1999
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isnt most of x86 already expired?
Everything older than Pentium Pro, the patents have expired. For everything else (AVX implementation, power management, virtualization, etc.) patents have not expired.
 
Oct 10, 1999
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Feb 19, 2009
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#18
Feb 19, 2009
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#19
They'll probably make steady cash from the new SOCs (PS4.5 and NX) and the third unannounced one that we don't know what it is.
Xbox Next. Developers are starting to leak.

All 3 consoles will have a very similar APU design.

This should put AMD's WSA with GF into good use as the volumes requirements for these consoles will tap out GF's 14nm FF I suspect.

On the other side, Apple's refresh will also be using Polaris 11 and 10.

Good times for AMD ahead for sure, as long as GF & Samsung can deliver!
 

poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
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#20
I'm surprised the market took so long to respond, the was leaked wednesday morning and the ps4.5 was confirmed earlier than that.
Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
 

videogames101

Diamond Member
Aug 24, 2005
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Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
Are you trying to time the market? No bueno!
 
Oct 10, 1999
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Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
Buying/selling AMD stock is legalized gambling at this point.
 

monstercameron

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2013
3,829
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#23
Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
I saw it on fudzilla early wednesday morning, which can mean it was leaked even earlier than that.
 
Aug 11, 2008
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#24
Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
Where are you guys seeing 3.50? It only went to slightly over 3.20 and dropped back slightly.
 
Sep 5, 2003
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#25
Anyone have a link to a good summary? Would be appreciated.
http://wccftech.com/amd-q1-2016-earnings-financials/

AMD Market Segment Performance:

Computing and Graphics operating loss was $70 million, compared to an operating loss of $99 million in Q4 2015, primarily due to lower operating expenses.
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue was $372 million, down 24% compared to the prior quarter, primarily driven by lower sales of our semi-custom SoCs.
Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom operating income was $16 million, down from operating income of $59 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to lower revenue and higher R&D expenses, partially offset by the Q1 2016 $7 million IP licensing gain.

Not a good Q1 2016.

AMD needs to execute with 14nm Zen and Polaris/Vega because PS4/XB1 alone are not enough to keep the company profitable.

Never safe to assume anything. Personally I think the jump is an over reaction, and the stock will slip back, at least temporarily. Long term, they still have to turn a profit at some point. But they seem to be on an upward trend.
$293M of extra cash from IP licensing they didn't have before today is an over reaction?

They will also have $320M cash infusion from another JV closing Q2 2016.

That's > $600M of extra income before taxes over the next 12-15 months.



That's why they are projecting a cash increase for Q2 2016:



Also, some notable highlights:

1. Zen is ontrack to achieve > 40% IPC uplift
2. Already secured several Zen OEM design wins
3. Next gen FirePro GPUs / Zen server CPUs in the pipeline
4. At least 2 new semi-custom designs wins (2H 2016 and 2017) => Likely NX and PS4 Neo.



"AMD reported that they have already started shipping Bristol Ridge APUs to OEMs since March. AMD also saw a double digit percentage increase (sequentially) in desktop discrete GPUs largely driven by increased Radeon 300 series sales in the market channel."

http://wccftech.com/amd-q1-2016-earnings-financials/#ixzz46WWvwgSC

Looks like the predictions that AMD is going bankrupt in 2016 are also wrong (like the last 20 years in a row). :sneaky: :D

AMD lost over $100,000,000 and people think that's a good thing.
That's what happens when you don't read the entire earnings report.

Where exactly was that leaked? I was very hesitant to buy anything AMD as their stock was just a roller coaster since Feb. Analysts valued it @ $1.87 a share, it's now 3.50 which is almost double. Do u guys think it's overbought?
I don't. Right now on paper AMD has outdated GPU and CPU product lines in almost all market segments, while Zen and Polaris/Vega are all-new designs from scratch. The question you have to ask is do you think AMD will make more $ and gain some market share from Intel/NV with Zen + 14nm GPUs? If you think YES, then the stock is undervalued. If you think AMD will perform no better or worse, then it's overbought.

If you want to invest $, there are better ways.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE:DFN&ei=IqEZV4mVBsa0jAHtr42AAg

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Put this into your TFSA.
 
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