AMD Q2 Result.

[mrmt]

Actually mobile games are winning since there are no ET's running, but 3 big flops at the same time will kill the whole Mobile industry

It's quite the opposite, the mobile industry is highly fragmented, 3 flops won't kill it. But three flops can kill EA, as it did with THQ, because the traditional gaming industry is more concentrated and has higher development costs for each game.

 

[Sweepr]

Apple A8X and Tegra K1 are roughly at X360 level. This year's 14nm flagship phones should get darn close to them, and Apple A9X (iPad Pro?) and Tegra X1 go beyond that.
CPU-wise in a not so distant future phones/tablets will surpass X1/PS4.

 

[frozentundra123456]

currently the most advanced phones has maybe a playstation 2 level of graphics. that won't cut it in 2016 and beyond. most consoles have 5-10yr lifespans

There is a lot more to gaming than graphics. Convenience, cost (mobile games are *very* cheap to buy, or free), cheap development, availability on the go, all come into play.

I am not saying that there isnt a place for more powerful gaming devices than phones. What I am saying is that by the time the next generation of consoles comes out, ARM may be able to provide sufficient power, and would perfectly integrate with the mobile ecosystem.

And it doesnt help either that progress in the x86 market has slowed to a crawl, allowing ARM to catch up to a certain extent.

Edit: we are getting off topic I guess, but it is relevant to whether AMD will get the next console contract. I am not posting any more on this topic though.

 

[dark zero]

It's quite the opposite, the mobile industry is highly fragmented, 3 flops won't kill it. But three flops can kill EA, as it did with THQ, because the traditional gaming industry is more concentrated and has higher development costs for each game.

Remember ET? Yeah, it near killed the WHOLE industry and hopefully Nintendo 64 was not popular, because Superman 64 would end again the industry...

Recently we saw a MASSIVE flop with Batman and the Pc game industry was Lucky because there weren't any more flops...

The Mobile industry is fragmented and is not bad.. But also not good because he current games are more and more the same thing with different skin... Eventually people will get tired of that.

And actually is does have relation with the current AMD situation since they are ONLY living on traditional consoles... Just like ARM living thanks to mobile apps

 

[mrmt]

Edit: we are getting off topic I guess, but it is relevant to whether AMD will get the next console contract. I am not posting any more on this topic though.

I brought these topics to put the spotlight in two things:

1) The consoles aren't the dominant gaming platforms and aren't the fastest growth drivers of the gaming industry. The fastest drivers in the industry leverage on server processors (cloud) and off-the-shelf components for local processors, those are outside of AMD possibilities.

2) ARM vs x86 is irrelevant from the industry POV. Business model is, and given that the console business model will stay around for the foreseeable future AMD will win the next console contracts as long as it is willing to swallow the crappy margins they got in the last round.

3) Given that the money is going elsewhere (mobile), it is probable that the next console projects will face further downward cost pressures, which should put even more pressure on AMD margins.

 

[TeknoBug]

currently the most advanced phones has maybe a playstation 2 level of graphics. that won't cut it in 2016 and beyond. most consoles have 5-10yr lifespans

Phones yeah, but console, they could be using a different better graphics processor than phones use, right?

 

[ShintaiDK]

8x A72 wouldnt be worse than the current console CPUs.

 

[dark zero]

INBF Intel Fagboys will say that is better to use Celeron N on the future consoles only to kill the whole console industry and to move everyone to PC or Mobile.

Your comment steps way over the line as for what's acceptable here. -Admin DrPizza

 

[jpiniero]

Bondholders cannot demand early repayment unless AMD breaches a covenant of the bond contract, so they cannot pull the plug.

Legally, I'm sure. But I'm also sure there's plenty of pressure they can put on AMD.

How low would the cash have to get before the Mutual Funds dump the stock? Seems pretty much certain (unless something amazing happens) that they will get in the danger zone long before Zen's theoretical release.

 

[mrmt]

Legally, I'm sure. But I'm also sure there's plenty of pressure they can put on AMD.

How low would the cash have to get before the Mutual Funds dump the stock? Seems pretty much certain (unless something amazing happens) that they will get in the danger zone long before Zen's theoretical release.

I'm expecting another round of cuts this quarter, axing even more R&D personnel, followed by a deal involving assets (sale, spin off, licensing deal, whatever) in Q415 or Q116.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Please guys, at least once can an AMD thread be kept civil without name calling?

Probably not.

Not just that -- the new Radeons are priced incredibly aggressively against their Nvidia counterparts. Q3 could potentially be very good for AMD. I'd be happy if they at least break even next quarter.

I wouldn't be too optimistic. Remember, Carrizo and Fiji are responsible for offsetting the turgid sales of FX, Kaveri, and any video card that isn't Fiji. The jury's still out on how well Fiji will do as Fury Pro and Fury Nano (both products look stronger within their price brackets than Fury X), but Carrizo isn't lighting any fires yet. Waiting until Win10 was probably a mistake. Does Carrizo really need Win10 to work properly? I don't know. But Carrizo sold in large-by-AMD-standards quantities with Win8.1 and a "free upgrade to Win10" included would have been a lurvely marketing gimmick. If the hardware is (or could have been) there in time to start selling in quantity in June, then that's when AMD should have started selling, at least in the European and Asian markets where the "good" models seem to be available.

If you dont pay they come and take it. But what can they do if someone doesnt make their notebook or graphics card payment? Not much... which is why AMD is doomed.

Sort of reminds me of Blue Hippo. I think they repossessed computers for which customers could not pay. There were also a few ISPs that sold computers for "free" with Internet access, though they were nowhere near as successful as the mobile phone service providers.

 

[dark zero]

I wouldn't be too optimistic. Remember, Carrizo and Fiji are responsible for offsetting the turgid sales of FX, Kaveri, and any video card that isn't Fiji. The jury's still out on how well Fiji will do as Fury Pro and Fury Nano (both products look stronger within their price brackets than Fury X), but Carrizo isn't lighting any fires yet. Waiting until Win10 was probably a mistake. Does Carrizo really need Win10 to work properly? I don't know. But Carrizo sold in large-by-AMD-standards quantities with Win8.1 and a "free upgrade to Win10" included would have been a lurvely marketing gimmick. If the hardware is (or could have been) there in time to start selling in quantity in June, then that's when AMD should have started selling, at least in the European and Asian markets where the "good" models seem to be available.
.

Interesting enough I see the GPU division still with chances of survival... the Fury Nano is really an interesting way to show the HBM power....
The problem with nVIDIA is... if the CPU division dies... Intel could cancel both at the same time with some excuses only to sell their iGPU as the only avaliable solution.

 

[CHADBOGA]

INBF Intel Fagboys will say that is better to use Celeron N on the future consoles only to kill the whole console industry and to move everyone to PC or Mobile.

LOL

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'm expecting another round of cuts this quarter, axing even more R&D personnel, followed by a deal involving assets (sale, spin off, licensing deal, whatever) in Q415 or Q116.

What is there left to cut?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Interesting enough I see the GPU division still with chances of survival... the Fury Nano is really an interesting way to show the HBM power....
The problem with nVIDIA is... if the CPU division dies... Intel could cancel both at the same time with some excuses only to sell their iGPU as the only avaliable solution.

The GPU division have been R&D starved for a really long time. And as R&D is, you see the issue in the future rather than now. And we can already see how it is today. There is no way it will ever be able to compete with nVidia again. AMD already decided to put everything in the CPU basket.

However they need to start competing where they can. Aka SoC GPU licensing. And they needed that yesterday rather than tomorrow.

 

[dark zero]

The GPU division have been R&D starved for a really long time. And as R&D is, you see the issue in the future rather than now. And we can already see how it is today. There is no way it will ever be able to compete with nVidia again. AMD already decided to put everything in the CPU basket.

However they need to start competing where they can. Aka SoC GPU licensing. And they needed that yesterday rather than tomorrow.

Actually AMD can fuse to NVIDIA and Apple in order to stop Intel who seems that might merge with Microsoft. Nvidia knows that they won't last even 1 generation alone against Intel

 

[mrmt]

What is there left to cut?

Zen server validation? The Excavator refresh?

 

[Sweepr]

The GPU division have been R&D starved for a really long time. And as R&D is, you see the issue in the future rather than now. And we can already see how it is today. There is no way it will ever be able to compete with nVidia again. AMD already decided to put everything in the CPU basket.

And it really shows. Despite fancy HBM they are basically stuck with a 2011 architecture which is not competitive with Maxwell in terms of perf/watt.

 

[mrmt]

And it really shows. Despite fancy HBM they are basically stuck with a 2011 architecture which is not competitive with Maxwell in terms of perf/watt.

This is a stark warning to those expecting AMD to do miracles with Zen. With their current R&D levels they cannot match even what Nvidia is doing. Unless we expect a miracle from AMD R&D teams, they should not match what Intel is doing in the CPU arena.

 

[dark zero]

This is a start warning to those expecting AMD to do miracles with Zen. With their current R&D levels they cannot match even what Nvidia is doing. Unless we expect a miracle from AMD R&D teams, they should not match what Intel is doing in the CPU arena.

And despite the increase of nVIDIA in their R&D they can't increse the gap between them and Intel. Maybe Kabylake could be the very last moment of nVidia, since they won't get enough HBM supply to counter Intel
And the console market is about to die... They don't have more to harvest... It's posibily the beginning of their moving to another áreas and the beginning of the end of the x86 we know

 

[mrmt]

It's posibily the beginning of their moving to another áreas and the beginning of the end of the x86 we know

Why do you think AMD quitting x86 would make any difference to the ecosystem? The x86 ecosystem is Intel, it is Intel building, developing and giving it direction, AMD just piggyback on all this in order to sell subpar products. If AMD quits tomorrow we'll see a few fanbois mourning but for x86 it will be business as usual.

 

[dark zero]

Why do you think AMD quitting x86 would make any difference to the ecosystem? The x86 ecosystem is Intel, it is Intel building, developing and giving it direction, AMD just piggyback on all this in order to sell subpar products. If AMD quits tomorrow we'll see a few fanbois mourning but for x86 it will be business as usual.

Actually it would change the market very dramatically... AMD was the only one who sells Quad Cores sub $100 (still with the quality of a Intel Dual One on FM2 or a i3 on AM3+) and they made Intel put the Atom core to a trashy prices... when AMD goes away, Intel would be free to put the Dual Big Cores avobe $100 and put the Atom Cores at the prices of the Pentium Dual Core. Or simply taking down the Dual Core tier and putting liek this.
- Sub $100: Atom Dual Core
- $100 to $200: Quad Atom Core
- $200 to $300: Core i3
- $300 to $500: Core i5
- $500 and above: Core i7

And the Big Core who becomes dual, could go to OEM or Bussiness. Consequences of the Monopoly and since they are allies with the US Government and the Israel one, the regulators won't exist for them. And people will pay that since there will be no competition. And VIA actually could get sued due the alliance with the Chinese (US enemies).

Similar thing to nVIDIA. nVIDIA alone won't resist Intel's juggernaut in everything. Before they goes bankrupt, they quits to another easier markets like mobile one (they are dominating in GPU here).

 

[mrmt]

Actually it would change the market very dramatically... AMD was the only one who sells Quad Cores sub $100 (still with the quality of a Intel Dual One on FM2 or a i3 on AM3+) and they made Intel put the Atom core to a trashy prices... when AMD goes away, Intel would be free to put the Dual Big Cores avobe $100 and put the Atom Cores at the prices of the Pentium Dual Core. Or simply taking down the Dual Core tier and putting liek this.

AMD is just 1.5% of the total x86 CPU revenue, they have poor margins and they are still losing share. The guys constructing price policies at Intel shouldn't have AMD products as a driver for price definition, they care about building the product mix that extracts more money from the market. If anything, it is Intel pushing for these low prices, regardless of AMD or not. Intel is competing against itself, not against AMD. So if AMD goes away tomorrow, prices won't change.

 

[dark zero]

AMD is just 1.5% of the total x86 CPU revenue, they have poor margins and they are still losing share. The guys constructing price policies at Intel shouldn't have AMD products as a driver for price definition, they care about building the product mix that extracts more money from the market. If anything, it is Intel pushing for these low prices, regardless of AMD or not. Intel is competing against itself, not against AMD. So if AMD goes away tomorrow, prices won't change.

One thing is the revenue... other is the Marketshare who are still at 15% (max) and to make it interesting, most of that marketshare are on low tier where the Pentium has their limits and the Core i3 are really expensive. That's AMD right now. The low tier who are limiting Intel to release the Atom as the real mainstream.

 

[mrmt]

One thing is the revenue... other is the Marketshare who are still at 15% (max) and to make it interesting, most of that marketshare are on low tier where the Pentium has their limits and the Core i3 are really expensive. That's AMD right now. The low tier who are limiting Intel to release the Atom as the real mainstream.

AMD unit share is lower than 5%. AMD is really irrelevant for the overall market.