AMD Now "Verging On Irrelevancy" Analyst Says

[eternalone]

Not looking good.

“It’s difficult to recommend aggressively shorting AMD with the stock already at $5, but we maintain our view that AMD is being structurally squeezed by poor competitive positioning and longstanding operational struggles,” he writes. “AMD is on the verge of sinking into irrelevancy as ARM-based competitors gain share in low-end computing and Intel extends its advantages in performance and manufacturing.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2011/10/13/amd-now-verging-on-irrelvancy-analyst-says/

 

[Nintendesert]

I don't know, I think it's just more Bulldozer bandwagoning. The GPU and APU along with their server marketplace isn't all that bad.

 

[Phynaz]

I don't know, I think it's just more Bulldozer bandwagoning. The GPU and APU along with their server marketplace isn't all that bad.

Their server market share was somewhere around 5% last quarter. GPU profits are somewhere in in the mid $10M per quarter.

You don't keep a multi billion dollar company alive on that.

 

[Idontcare]

Their server market share was somewhere around 5% last quarter. GPU profits are somewhere in in the mid $10M per quarter.

You don't keep a multi billion dollar company alive on that.

It's the SUN model. Blogs. They need moar blogs, lots and lots of blogging will surely replace lots and lots of declining revenue.

 

[lol123]

It's the SUN model. Blogs. They need moar blogs, lots and lots of blogging will surely replace lots and lots of declining revenue.

Yeah, and most of all more threads à la Niagara.

 

[sandorski]

Analysts have been flogging AMD forever. AMD will survive.

 

[jacktesterson]

AMD will survive.

 

[Gigantopithecus]

I think this year was an important year for AMD in that they launched three major new product lines: Zacate APUs, Llano APUs, and Bulldozer CPUs.

Zacate is a winner. I have built three Atom-based nettops and almost 30 Zacate-based nettops this year. I have not recommended a single Atom-based netbook since Zacate netbooks became available. That said, the netbook craze has really died off with the rise of tablets.

Llano is a winner in the budget and mid-range mobile sectors. There are a lot of very good Llano-based laptops, and I've been recommending a lot of them. At the high-end, you're still better off going Intel/AMD or Intel/Nvidia. Llano on the desktop is a harder sell, but I'm building more Llano desktops than either Intel/dGPU or AMD/dGPU desktops now because most of my customers are into light gaming on 1333x768 displays. I still build more budget AMD or more powerful Intel systems without dGPUs, though.

I still don't think Bulldozer is a total failure because there are niches where I think it outpaces the Intel competition, but in light of many of the good arguments made in my Bulldozer response thread, it's clear to me those niches are not numerous, and Bulldozer is definitely not a success.

What's clear to me at this point is why AMD rushed to get Llano out in numbers and delayed Bulldozer: Llano is a very good product, Bulldozer is a mostly bad product.

I've been watching AMD's stock price like a hawk this year knowing the company's success would hinge on the success of these three product lines. Zacate is very successful, Llano is successful, and Bulldozer is not successful. I have a limited understanding of what drives stock prices, in that I think growth is what makes a company's stock price go up. This is why Intel and Microsoft's stocks have been relatively flat for years - both companies make gobs of money (hence the great dividends), but neither is really growing. AMD has the potential for growth. ...But it's easy to have potential for growth when you have very little market share (see Apple's history over the last decade).

The question now is, how will AMD grow as a company? They clearly can't compete with Intel's massive R & D budget and they can't compete with Intel's far superior process technologies.

What troubles me is that if AMD collapses, dGPUs become monopolized by Nvidia, and CPUs become monopolized by Intel. This is an enthusiast's nightmare, to be totally blunt.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

Yeah... no. The Core i5, Core i7, FX-6000 and FX-8000 series are irrelevant for the overall market in comparison to the Core i3 and Fusion A8 and everything below.

AMD isn't gonna lose that much money over the Bulldozer debacle as both Llano and Bobcat are very competitive. Bulldozer is their line of high margin products, though, so they definitely need to fix them.

 

[jhansman]

Ah, thank God for analysts. I look forward to the day when each and every one of them actually produces something tangible for it's society.

 

[bryanW1995]

If amd collapses somebody will snap up their gnu business, probably intel. Before that would happen, and would just sell that business, anyway.

 

[quest55720]

What a load of crap. Sure the bulldozer was a complete failure. But AMD launched 2 products that are winners this year in Zacate and LLANO. Those products will only get better as memory gets faster and they move the GPU to vliw4. Then eventually move the GPU part to the next gen CUs.

 

[Vdubchaos]

GPU to vliw4 and maybe to CU....at the end of the day AMD will still screw you.

 

[aigomorla]

well if its a load of crap.. it wont be for much longer..

its an article from forbes... and it holds a lot of influence with the general business public.

And being from forbes, if AMD was trying to fight it behind the scenes, or wasnt there yet, they will be, because it will influence a large audience.

Or they could get a public appology from forbes.. but I HIGHLY DOUBT that...

 

[gevorg]

I love these wall street idiots, FUD the AMD price even more and I'll be ready to grab some ~1yr call options.

 

[mmaestro]

Honestly, at this point I've given up trying to tie stock price to anything other than fairly uninformed tech reporting. I don't think most of these analysts have the slightest clue what's competitive and what isn't, what makes money and what doesn't, they just run with the latest headline. The latest headline for AMD is "bulldozer is a failure," so the analysts will say the company's worthless even with their GPU and APU businesses, as well as what I expect will continue to be a vibrant server business. But the analysts don't see that stuff. Honestly, I get the feeling that the only thing analysts ever see in tech is the consumer market, and that ain't all there is.

 

[Vdubchaos]

Honestly, at this point I've given up trying to tie stock price to anything other than fairly uninformed tech reporting. I don't think most of these analysts have the slightest clue what's competitive and what isn't, what makes money and what doesn't, they just run with the latest headline. The latest headline for AMD is "bulldozer is a failure," so the analysts will say the company's worthless even with their GPU and APU businesses, as well as what I expect will continue to be a vibrant server business. But the analysts don't see that stuff. Honestly, I get the feeling that the only thing analysts ever see in tech is the consumer market, and that ain't all there is.

Wait there is people that think stock price actually means something?

And that Wall street or "analysts" have even slightest clue?



It's monkey business based on speculation.

 

[Idontcare]

Ah, thank God for analysts. I look forward to the day when each and every one of them actually produces something tangible for it's society.

Analysts...

It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.

The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

"Citizenship in a Republic,"
Speech at the Sorbonne, Paris, April 23, 1910

^ could be said of a few passionate anti-bulldozer fans out there too, I suppose

 

[IntelUser2000]

Analysts...


^ could be said of a few passionate anti-bulldozer fans out there too, I suppose

It's posts like these that makes me wonder if your other major was philosophy before process engineer.

 

[blckgrffn]

It's posts like these that makes me wonder if your other major was philosophy before process engineer.

Everyone should be a philosopher first and a specialist second

IDC is on an impressive run when it comes to valuable/informative posts He must be good at managing up with all those graphics he uses

 

[sangyup81]

Ummm, these can't be the same analysts that were worshiping AMD when Llano came out

 

[86waterpumper]

There are a lot of very good Llano-based laptops

No there are not...at least not in a broad variety. Show me one below a 14" screen size, heck even 14s are hard to find especially if you want the A8. There is a HUGE gap in performance between the zacate and the Llano, in the smaller netbook/laptops (11.6-13.3")and unfortunately if you want decent performance the only game in town is the i3. I got excited about Llano too at first, but after months of waiting for more products to hit the market all one can conclude is that it cannot run in a smaller form factor due to heat etc.

 

[BladeVenom]

Yeah... no. The Core i5, Core i7, FX-6000 and FX-8000 series are irrelevant for the overall market in comparison to the Core i3 and Fusion A8 and everything below.

High end products may be a small portion of sales, but they determine publicity and reputation.

 

[anti.machine]

BD may have "failed", but I have a lenovo x120e with the zacate E-350 and simply put it kicks ass and will even play MWF2 on med-high settings....IMO outperforms any ATOM netbook or "ultra portable" laptops. I think AMD will be fine and will, hopefully, learn from their mistakes.

 

[cebalrai]

A lot of analysts are also especially bullish on AMD right now. Their stock plunged with the Glo Fo issues. They're due for a quarterly report soon... If their market share increased via Llano and foundry issues settle down, AMD's price will rebound in a big way.