AMD Now "Verging On Irrelevancy" Analyst Says

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

High end products may be a small portion of sales, but they determine publicity and reputation.

If that's the case Llano and Zacate wouldn't be selling so well.

Sorry, that's just wrong. Most consumers don't care at all about high-end products, but rather about what they can afford and what fills their needs best at that given price. They go into a store, not knowing really anything, and ask a sales associate. Then he'll ask them about what they need it for, and he'll make recommendations based on what they answer. A good amount of others buy based on brands they recognize and trust, like for example ThinkPads and MacBooks.

 

[sangyup81]

High end products may be a small portion of sales, but they determine publicity and reputation.

which make for great news stories but ultimately don't affect sales as much as product pricing

 

[IntelUser2000]

No, enthusiasts are very relevant. You guys know more than average citizen just because you are conversing on Anandtech forums for processor features, code-names, et cetera. Do you guys recommend computer purchases to friends and family that don't know as much? I do.

Few things happening. Average people are the biggest market, but:
-Enthusiasts recommend to friends and family
-Sales people recommend to customers, and they want to sell high margin products as well. Also happens lot of sales people are more computer savvy than those not in computer sales.
-I've seen few people that buy because its the latest and greatest

You see people that wants to spend certain amount of money on a computer. Say $1000. In most cases, they would spend all that. Maybe a little variation based on recommendation. That's where brand value and recognition comes in.

Apple is the prime example. 10% of the PC market but 80% of premium product sales. I have a computer savvy friend that wanted a laptop, but wanted to avoid HP as much as possible. That's still brand recognition. Even nowadays cheaper products usually skip more on quality than higher priced products. People know that too.

How many of the Llano and Brazos sales are due to people like us recommending to average joes?

Repeat with me: WE ARE IMPORTANT!!

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

No, enthusiasts are very relevant. You guys know more than average citizen just because you are conversing on Anandtech forums for processor features, code-names, et cetera. Do you guys recommend computer purchases to friends and family that don't know as much? I do.

Few things happening. Average people are the biggest market, but:
-Enthusiasts recommend to friends and family
-Sales people recommend to customers, and they want to sell high margin products as well. Also happens lot of sales people are more computer savvy than those not in computer sales.
-I've seen few people that buy because its the latest and greatest

You see people that wants to spend certain amount of money on a computer. Say $1000. In most cases, they would spend all that. Maybe a little variation based on recommendation. That's where brand value and recognition comes in.

Apple is the prime example. 10% of the PC market but 80% of premium product sales. I have a computer savvy friend that wanted a laptop, but wanted to avoid HP as much as possible. That's still brand recognition. Even nowadays cheaper products usually skip more on quality than higher priced products. People know that too.

How many of the Llano and Brazos sales are due to people like us recommending to average joes?

Repeat with me: WE ARE IMPORTANT!!

And your point is...? We're still not relevant. All we do is make recommendations for them at their price point, just like a sales associate would (or should). We're not pushing them to get "the latest and greatest" because they do not need it, nor do they want the sticker price shock.

Also, it's pretty easy to be 80% of the market when you're one of the few competing in it. Apple is the only big manufacturer that focuses on high margins, therefore, that's what they'll push for. Doesn't change the fact almost no one wants to pay >$1K for a laptop or desktop, which is why looking at the worldwide market Apple is still a small player.

 

[sangyup81]

No, enthusiasts are very relevant. You guys know more than average citizen just because you are conversing on Anandtech forums for processor features, code-names, et cetera. Do you guys recommend computer purchases to friends and family that don't know as much? I do.

Few things happening. Average people are the biggest market, but:
-Enthusiasts recommend to friends and family
-Sales people recommend to customers, and they want to sell high margin products as well. Also happens lot of sales people are more computer savvy than those not in computer sales.
-I've seen few people that buy because its the latest and greatest

You see people that wants to spend certain amount of money on a computer. Say $1000. In most cases, they would spend all that. Maybe a little variation based on recommendation. That's where brand value and recognition comes in.

Apple is the prime example. 10% of the PC market but 80% of premium product sales. I have a computer savvy friend that wanted a laptop, but wanted to avoid HP as much as possible. That's still brand recognition. Even nowadays cheaper products usually skip more on quality than higher priced products. People know that too.

How many of the Llano and Brazos sales are due to people like us recommending to average joes?

Repeat with me: WE ARE IMPORTANT!!

The whole argument is based on enthusiasts being biased in the information they give out.

I tend to find out as much about the person's personal preferences as I can before giving out a recommendation. I really don't want to be like a certain friend of mine that insisted that everyone get Alienware products regardless of the way they use their laptops.

 

[Medu]

I don't know, I think it's just more Bulldozer bandwagoning. The GPU and APU along with their server marketplace isn't all that bad.

GPU's make little to no money for AMD. Bobcat is been squeezed out of the market place by ARM from below and i3's from above. Llano is doing ok but it's not enough to keep AMD a float.

 

[Idontcare]

No, enthusiasts are very relevant. You guys know more than average citizen just because you are conversing on Anandtech forums for processor features, code-names, et cetera. Do you guys recommend computer purchases to friends and family that don't know as much? I do.

I'm the designated procurement officer for my extended family. Its not half as fun as it sounds, actually. But I know exactly what you are referring to.

How do I use my enthusiast knowledge in shaping the purchases of friends and family? In my case I always craft a few different pricepoint options - your standard value/performance tiers, based on the relative budget of the individual.

But what I am also doing is I am downselecting away from components/platforms that I suspect are going to be more work for me in the free technical-support category over the life of the purchase.

What that looks like IRL is no overclocking. Everything is stock clocks and volts. Also no gimmicks, I'm not buying tricores with the idea of unlocking them and leaving my mom open to silent data corruption and so on.

I'm also not looking for fire-breather CPU's either, not because I care about power-consumption (although I do, because I care about quiet because family notices loud computers) but because I don't want a fire-breathing CPU precipitating an early death of a mobo that is a 3yr car ride away.

In short, I use my enthusiast knowledge to guide my extended family towards buying things that are simply going to work from day 1 to day 1000. I'm not going to use things that are binary in their reliability either, like sandforce SSD's.

I do require every one of them have a UPS, and back-up software installed. Because you know who's ass is going to be wasting his weekend redoing a system install every time a tree falls on the powerlines in the Poconos.

I don't have any family members that actually need fast computers, but even your average web-browser person can appreciate a snappy computer that comes from multi-cores and lots of ram. I think the fastest CPU any of them have is a stock-clocked Q6600.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

GPU's make little to no money for AMD. Bobcat is been squeezed out of the market place by ARM from below and i3's from above. Llano is doing ok but it's not enough to keep AMD a float.

Proof? And how can Bobcat be "squeezed" by the Core i3 when they're in different markets and at different price points and with different design goals? Also, ARM=irrelevant for laptops. And no, Windows 8 won't change that because ARM is horrible in comparison to even Bobcat when it comes to performance.

And Llano is doing just fine.

 

[Silverforce11]

AMD's GPU division is doing fine, they are managing to make a profit (however small) being attached to AMD.. that is an achievement in of itself.

I also have a feeling their GPU division would be subsidizing R&D costs (FUSION works great and E-350/Llano are awesome for their market) which accounting numbers do not show.

 

[Keysplayr]

AMD's GPU division is doing fine, they are managing to make a profit (however small) being attached to AMD.. that is an achievement in of itself.

I also have a feeling their GPU division would be subsidizing R&D costs (FUSION works great and E-350/Llano are awesome for their market) which accounting numbers do not show.

I don't think you could have made that any rosier. :thumbsup:

 

[386DX]

If that's the case Llano and Zacate wouldn't be selling so well.

You are thinking to short sighted. And with AMD a success for them is a quarter they aren't in the red. Sure Llano and Zacate can be considered "successful" for AMD but where do they go from there? Remember Llano and Zacate are derivatives of the desktop Phenom CPU's. With BD showing so poorly (performance, power, etc) how can they transition that into the Llano/Zacate market? Or do you think AMD is gonna remain "successful" continuing selling Stars based CPU's. Even on AMD's roadmap, they expect there future fusion product to be BD based, do they really have a choice? Probably not, it'll take many years to come up with a new CPU architecture. If they continue to improve upon the Stars based CPU they're gonna end up like VIA, selling to niche and the bottom end.

Sure you can say Intel went through the same flop with the Pentium 4, but Intel is not AMD. Intel had and has a pile of cash to weather through a bad product AMD doesn't. Intel had billions to spend on R&D even while the Pentium 4 was stinking, AMD doesn't have the same luxury with Bulldozer. That's why I believe (and maybe the Analyst) believe that AMD is in big trouble... of course they might be saved by Intel since its in Intel's best interest that AMD stays around.

 

[podspi]

Proof? And how can Bobcat be "squeezed" by the Core i3 when they're in different markets and at different price points and with different design goals? Also, ARM=irrelevant for laptops. And no, Windows 8 won't change that because ARM is horrible in comparison to even Bobcat when it comes to performance.

And Llano is doing just fine.

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...056&CatId=4938


http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...199&CatId=4939


There are some crazy cheap i3 laptops out there. And many of the E-series laptops are expensive. Yes, you could find some cheaper E-series laptops out there, but I refuse to buy a 15" Acer paperweight.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...056&CatId=4938


http://www.tigerdirect.com/applicati...199&CatId=4939


There are some crazy cheap i3 laptops out there. And many of the E-series laptops are expensive. Yes, you could find some cheaper E-series laptops out there, but I refuse to buy a 15" Acer paperweight.

Right, and again, the point is...? The market for Zacate is ultra-portable laptops. Those weigh between 2.5-3.5 pounds, have 11"-13.3" screens, get 5-8 hours of battery life, have no DVD Burners, are typically 1" thin, and have 7200RPM Hard Drives for faster boot up times and responsiveness. Normal Core i3 laptops weight too much in comparison, are too big, get significantly less battery life, and have slow 5400RPM HDDs. They also have significantly higher processing power. Completely different markets.

 

[quest55720]

You are thinking to short sighted. And with AMD a success for them is a quarter they aren't in the red. Sure Llano and Zacate can be considered "successful" for AMD but where do they go from there? Remember Llano and Zacate are derivatives of the desktop Phenom CPU's. With BD showing so poorly (performance, power, etc) how can they transition that into the Llano/Zacate market? Or do you think AMD is gonna remain "successful" continuing selling Stars based CPU's. Even on AMD's roadmap, they expect there future fusion product to be BD based, do they really have a choice? Probably not, it'll take many years to come up with a new CPU architecture. If they continue to improve upon the Stars based CPU they're gonna end up like VIA, selling to niche and the bottom end.

Sure you can say Intel went through the same flop with the Pentium 4, but Intel is not AMD. Intel had and has a pile of cash to weather through a bad product AMD doesn't. Intel had billions to spend on R&D even while the Pentium 4 was stinking, AMD doesn't have the same luxury with Bulldozer. That's why I believe (and maybe the Analyst) believe that AMD is in big trouble... of course they might be saved by Intel since its in Intel's best interest that AMD stays around.

The bobcat/zacate are not based off the phenom. They are something new that will only get better. This was only the first attempt next gen I would guess be huge improvement at 32NM.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

You are thinking to short sighted. And with AMD a success for them is a quarter they aren't in the red. Sure Llano and Zacate can be considered "successful" for AMD but where do they go from there? Remember Llano and Zacate are derivatives of the desktop Phenom CPU's. With BD showing so poorly (performance, power, etc) how can they transition that into the Llano/Zacate market? Or do you think AMD is gonna remain "successful" continuing selling Stars based CPU's. Even on AMD's roadmap, they expect there future fusion product to be BD based, do they really have a choice? Probably not, it'll take many years to come up with a new CPU architecture. If they continue to improve upon the Stars based CPU they're gonna end up like VIA, selling to niche and the bottom end.

Sure you can say Intel went through the same flop with the Pentium 4, but Intel is not AMD. Intel had and has a pile of cash to weather through a bad product AMD doesn't. Intel had billions to spend on R&D even while the Pentium 4 was stinking, AMD doesn't have the same luxury with Bulldozer. That's why I believe (and maybe the Analyst) believe that AMD is in big trouble... of course they might be saved by Intel since its in Intel's best interest that AMD stays around.

The next version of Llano is Trinity and it's based on the Piledriver, not the version of Bulldozer we have now. We don't know how efficient it'll be, or if it'll have significantly higher performance than the current CPU portion. IGP performance will probably be noticeably higher, though.

Also, Bobcat (Ontario, Zacate) isn't based on the Athlon II.

 

[Silverforce11]

Right, and again, the point is...? The market for Zacate is ultra-portable laptops. Those weigh between 2.5-3.5 pounds, have 11"-13.3" screens, get 5-8 hours of battery life, have no DVD Burners, are typically 1" thin, and have 7200RPM Hard Drives for faster boot up times and responsiveness. Normal Core i3 laptops weight too much in comparison, are too big, get significantly less battery life, and have slow 5400RPM HDDs. They also have significantly higher processing power. Completely different markets.

Yep. I have an ultrathin based on turion x2 that ive been using for work. I've recommended quite a few ppl the E-350 ultrathins and they bought them and have been very happy with actual mobility without compromise.

Its not something core i3s compete with.

Llano laptops also is not something core i3s compete with, since it packs serious GPU performance in a very power efficient design.

The only market segment AMD sucks at is enthusiast desktop. They have been behind for years now, and yes, it does affect brand recognition. But, the fusion tag, and radeon/ati label have served AMD very well.

 

[Dadofamunky]

BD may have "failed", but I have a lenovo x120e with the zacate E-350 and simply put it kicks ass and will even play MWF2 on med-high settings....IMO outperforms any ATOM netbook or "ultra portable" laptops. I think AMD will be fine and will, hopefully, learn from their mistakes.

Yep. That's a pretty resounding endorsement from a MAJOR integrator. 11.6"? So much for it not working in a SFF.

I tried out a couple of Atom netbooks and frankly they sucked hard. Netbooks of course are dead but the segment this unit approaches isn't the same thing. In my case I'd probably go for the $999 Dell Sandy Bridge laptop but that's just me.

Yep. I have an ultrathin based on turion x2 that ive been using for work. I've recommended quite a few ppl the E-350 ultrathins and they bought them and have been very happy with actual mobility without compromise.

Its not something core i3s compete with.

Llano laptops also is not something core i3s compete with, since it packs serious GPU performance in a very power efficient design.

The only market segment AMD sucks at is enthusiast desktop. They have been behind for years now, and yes, it does affect brand recognition. But, the fusion tag, and radeon/ati label have served AMD very well.

This. I agree. And for the record I'm rooting for them. I wanted BD to be strong. It's not. I hope it's not a fatal mistake. Especially since I don't want to pay $1000 for my CPUs again.

 

[Blitzvogel]

No there are not...at least not in a broad variety. Show me one below a 14" screen size, heck even 14s are hard to find especially if you want the A8. There is a HUGE gap in performance between the zacate and the Llano, in the smaller netbook/laptops (11.6-13.3")and unfortunately if you want decent performance the only game in town is the i3. I got excited about Llano too at first, but after months of waiting for more products to hit the market all one can conclude is that it cannot run in a smaller form factor due to heat etc.

The price sweat spot is in all the 15.6 in range Zacate and Ontario machines. Normal consumers wouldn't understand the difference between those processors and why an A4 would be better. 15.6 machines are easy and cheap to produce as well. There are a few decent 14" Llano laptops out there, including a $400 HP available online at Best Buy's website and at a few of their locations. It's typical HP lack luster quality, but that is still a tremendous price for a laptop with a decent dual core, very good integrated graphics, 4 GB DDR3, and good portability.

Also, does anyone know if the A4 is just a normal 4 core Llano with disabled hardware, or is it really it's own die? Clues point towards the former, but there is no conclusive evidence it seems.

 

[NostaSeronx]

The next version of Llano is Trinity and it's based on the Piledriver, not the version of Bulldozer we have now. We don't know how efficient it'll be, or if it'll have significantly higher performance than the current CPU portion. IGP performance will probably be noticeably higher, though.

Also, Bobcat (Ontario, Zacate) isn't based on the Athlon II.

Actually we can slightly tell how efficient Trinity will be

2.5GHz is the stock for the Engineer Sample and it supposedly scores nicely against the 2.9GHz Llano A8-3850

One of the AMD Linux engineering systems for Trinity is running nicely even on Ubuntu 11.04 with the Linux 2.6.38 kernel. The CPU string is AMD Eng Sample 2M252057C4450_32/25/16_9900_609 and its graphics are the Trinity Devastator Mobile with 512MB of video memory and an AMD Pumori motherboard. The PCI ID on the Trinity Devastator appears to be 0x9900. This Trinity APU is quad-core and running at 2.50GHz. The current quad-core Llano offerings are clocked at 2.6GHz (A6-3650) and 2.9GHz (A8-3850), while this Trinity part is clocked slower, it's numbers are nice compared to my A8-3850 Linux system.

The problem is trying to grab numbers for something that doesn't exist yet as in Vishera

Edit: I need to read what I type hope no one read this before I edited it
Edit 2: I put TDP in by accident lol

 

[mosox]

- AMD released three platforms this year. When Intel ever did that? No wonder that their R&D department was stretched to the limit.

- AMD released the Bulldozer as a new 32nm process AND a completely new architecture. Considering this, the results are fine. Let's see Intel try that.

- AMD didn't gain the market the last time they had a superior product, what makes you think that if the Bulldozer was better they would have made it this time. Intel still has a stronghold on the distributors/market.

- IMO AMD should concentrate on the low and mid level CPUs and let the enthusiasts buy their beloved Intel CPUs for $600. That market is not so big after all.

 

[ocre]

huh?

For the same price as the BD, you can get a better all around product from intel. What do you mean by saying,

"let the enthusiasts buy their beloved Intel CPUs for $600"

The truth is that AMD isnt automatically a better value anymore. This is in both their CPU/GPU divisions. Its plain wrong that ppl keep saying AmD is the best bang for the buck, not any more. Its on a product by product basis now. There is a few places AMD is a better value, but there is plenty where its not!

On another note, is there any information showing how/if Llano and Zacate are doing in their markets. This thread claims they are a great success, i havent seen much showing sales/market information. I was impressed by them (especially the power envelope) but i am not sure they are hugely successful. What i have seen, be it very limited data, isnt what i am hearing here.

They could very well be changing the game, idk. So does anyone have information to show that Llano and/or Zacate are changing things for AMD or is it just speculation and we wont know for sure till AMD does the quarter reports?

 

[frozentundra123456]

huh?

For the same price as the BD, you can get a better all around product from intel. What do you mean by saying,

"let the enthusiasts buy their beloved Intel CPUs for $600"

The truth is that AMD isnt automatically a better value anymore. This is in both their CPU/GPU divisions. Its plain wrong that ppl keep saying AmD is the best bang for the buck, not any more. Its on a product by product basis now. There is a few places AMD is a better value, but there is plenty where its not!

On another note, is there any information showing how/if Llano and Zacate are doing in their markets. This thread claims they are a great success, i havent seen much showing sales/market information. I was impressed by them (especially the power envelope) but i am not sure they are hugely successful. What i have seen, be it very limited data, isnt what i am hearing here.

They could very well be changing the game, idk. So does anyone have information to show that Llano and/or Zacate are changing things for AMD or is it just speculation and we wont know for sure till AMD does the quarter reports?

I agree with you. I know most people on these forums dont use big box stores like Best Buy, but I like to go in an look around occasionally, and actually do a lot of purchases there since I dont build my own systems and like the ease of return to a store rather than dealing with shipping. And lets face it, I think a lot of basic consumers still get their comps at Best Buy, Staples, Office Dept, etc.

Anyway, call it Intel conspiracy(AMD fans always see an Intel conspiracy lol), or AMD supply problems, or just market ignorance by best buy, or whatever, but I see very few Llano or Bobcat products in Best Buy. And the ones I see, seem to be positioned poorly. Instead of having E-350 netbook, small form factor PCs, they have E-350 15.6 inch laptops which are not really where the chip fits in my opinion. And there was only one or two Llano laptops. One was a decent price and the other was way too expensive.

On the other hand there were Atom netbooks (ugh) and a plethora of cheap laptops with Intel Pentium and i3 processors. I cant say for sure because I dont have sale figures for Bobcat and Llano, but I dont really see them dominating the market in my area. I do think that the E350 and Llano for laptops are good alternatives in the right platform though.

 

[mosox]

huh?

For the same price as the BD, you can get a better all around product from intel. What do you mean by saying,

"let the enthusiasts buy their beloved Intel CPUs for $600"

That was assuming AMD drops the high end market as stated in the first part of my sentence you incompletely quoted.

IMO the future is in the smaller, mobile market. The monitors and desktops will likely disappear and the TV's will be hooked to a laptop for gaming purposes or even have a built-in gaming device.

 

[LOL_Wut_Axel]

huh?

For the same price as the BD, you can get a better all around product from intel. What do you mean by saying,

"let the enthusiasts buy their beloved Intel CPUs for $600"

The truth is that AMD isnt automatically a better value anymore. This is in both their CPU/GPU divisions. Its plain wrong that ppl keep saying AmD is the best bang for the buck, not any more. Its on a product by product basis now. There is a few places AMD is a better value, but there is plenty where its not!

On another note, is there any information showing how/if Llano and Zacate are doing in their markets. This thread claims they are a great success, i havent seen much showing sales/market information. I was impressed by them (especially the power envelope) but i am not sure they are hugely successful. What i have seen, be it very limited data, isnt what i am hearing here.

They could very well be changing the game, idk. So does anyone have information to show that Llano and/or Zacate are changing things for AMD or is it just speculation and we wont know for sure till AMD does the quarter reports?

I agree with you. I know most people on these forums dont use big box stores like Best Buy, but I like to go in an look around occasionally, and actually do a lot of purchases there since I dont build my own systems and like the ease of return to a store rather than dealing with shipping. And lets face it, I think a lot of basic consumers still get their comps at Best Buy, Staples, Office Dept, etc.

Anyway, call it Intel conspiracy(AMD fans always see an Intel conspiracy lol), or AMD supply problems, or just market ignorance by best buy, or whatever, but I see very few Llano or Bobcat products in Best Buy. And the ones I see, seem to be positioned poorly. Instead of having E-350 netbook, small form factor PCs, they have E-350 15.6 inch laptops which are not really where the chip fits in my opinion. And there was only one or two Llano laptops. One was a decent price and the other was way too expensive.

On the other hand there were Atom netbooks (ugh) and a plethora of cheap laptops with Intel Pentium and i3 processors. I cant say for sure because I dont have sale figures for Bobcat and Llano, but I dont really see them dominating the market in my area. I do think that the E350 and Llano for laptops are good alternatives in the right platform though.

Best arguments I've ever heard, right here. "I'm ignorant about sales figures or the market, so that means it hasn't done well."

FYI, AMD has shipped 12 million Fusion APUs according to figures from Q3 2011. They've been on the market since Q1 2011, which means in 3/4 of a year alone they've shipped 12 million of them. Gotta love people that try to put down AMD any chance they get. Just so you know, Bulldozer (which DOES suck) isn't where most of their money comes from, nor does its failure mean an impending doom for AMD. Just because you're an enthusiast and Intel has the best Performance and Enthusiast market CPUs doesn't mean AMD sucks.

 

[sangyup81]

Best arguments I've ever heard, right here. "I'm ignorant about sales figures or the market, so that means it hasn't done well."

FYI, AMD has shipped 12 million Fusion APUs according to figures from Q3 2011. They've been on the market since Q1 2011, which means in 3/4 of a year alone they've shipped 12 million of them. Gotta love people that try to put down AMD any chance they get. Just so you know, Bulldozer (which DOES suck) isn't where most of their money comes from, nor does its failure mean an impending doom for AMD. Just because you're an enthusiast and Intel has the best Performance and Enthusiast market CPUs doesn't mean AMD sucks.

I love my AMD products but man, that lawsuit settlement with Intel that resulted in the Global Foundries split off isn't looking good at all! 12 million APUs is great but it should have been more. The demand was there but production couldn't keep up and those lost units of potential sales will never come back.