AMD delays the delay -Kaveri- is its last competitive market gone?

Discussion in 'CPUs and Overclocking' started by Haserath, Nov 7, 2012.

  1. IntelUser2000

    IntelUser2000 Elite Member

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    I really think you are in denial here.

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/5831/amd-trinity-review-a10-4600m-a-new-hope/6

    The average is only 20%, and if we exclude Civ V, nothing is over 60% for Trinity. 2x gain would indeed allow Haswell to beat Trinity. Even on Civ V, they said they were working on drivers to fix that.

    On desktop, the saving grace for AMD is that Intel does not plan GT3. But a hypothetical GT3 would allow it to beat Trinity in lot of games. HD 4000 fares worst in Total War, Civ V, Minecraft, and Portal. Portal's performance has been fixed early this year: http://www.anandtech.com/show/5872/intel-dual-core-ivy-bridge-launch-and-ultrabook-review/5

    (Notice how the Ultrabook CPU's GPU is equal to quad core i7's GPU performance in portal).

    Total War and Civ V probably shares the similar limitation in Intel drivers that they are going to address sometime now and Haswell.
     
  2. AtenRa

    AtenRa Lifer

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    Sorry but the Intel CPU is 45W TDP and A10-4600M is 35W TDP. At the same TDP of 45W Trinity will be close to 50% faster on average. Where Intel closes the gap is at 17W because of the smaller manufacturing process, not due to the design of the iGPU.
     
  3. AtenRa

    AtenRa Lifer

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    Have you seen the A10-5700 review ?? A10-5700 is 65W TDP, granted the review only has two games but you see the difference against the 77W TDP Core i7. And don't forget that according to the rumors we will see a Trinity 2.0 next year.

    http://hexus.net/tech/reviews/cpu/47257-amd-a10-5700/?page=7
     
  4. boxleitnerb

    boxleitnerb Platinum Member

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    But Trinity 2.0 will not have GCN and Steamroller cores but in all likelihood be only a die shrink of Trinity. Problem here is that afaik the 28nm bulk process might hold Richland (Trinity 2.0) back. Trinity was SOI iirc.

    Richland might still win against Haswell, but the advantage will be much less pronounced than what we have now. It may be so small that is is insignificant, but time will tell.
     
  5. AtenRa

    AtenRa Lifer

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    I dont expect Trinity 2.0 to be on 28nm bulk. It could be a refined Trinity 32nm SOI like Brazos 2.0 with a ~10% more performance at the same Wattage.

    One more thing, will Intel introduce a Core i3 Haswell with GT3 ?? Because a $300+ Core i7 with GT3 will be irrelevant as Trinity is at the Core i3 price point and the majority of Core i7 owners dont buy that CPU for the iGPU graphics.
     
  6. boxleitnerb

    boxleitnerb Platinum Member

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    Most likely yes as there are several Ivy Bridge i3 and i5 with HD4000. There is no reason to assume this won't continue with Haswell.

    With only 10% more performance for Richland, the iGPU gap might close this generation.
     
  7. Haserath

    Haserath Senior member

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    Every mobile cpu has HD 4k, so I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least a few GT3 i3's.
     
  8. mrmt

    mrmt Diamond Member

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    Hard to say, but it's irrelevant for the point here.

    Two generations ago AMD fans were laughing at how bad Intel graphics were and now with Haswell we are already discussing by how much Intel is going to beat AMD. Given current trends, even if they don't beat AMD on graphics with the i3 Haswell, they are probably going to do so with i3 Broadwell or i3 Skylake.

    I think the most important here is that with Haswell consumers must not chose between better CPU performance or better GPU performance, you can have the best of both worlds in a single Intel package.

    As their main differentiating factor will be gone, or at least heavily eroded, this is going to push AMD further down in the value chain, and this is a problem, as Richland does not fundamentally change anything, and they are already on the limit on ASP. Tough times ahead for AMD.
     
  9. Ancalagon44

    Ancalagon44 Platinum Member

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    At this point, if AMD goes bankrupt, or has to sell out, I put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the executives. The Intel fiasco was too long ago, they are simply bad at making good products on time. Except for the graphics division, miraculously, but that doesnt turn much of a profit anyway.
     
  10. AtenRa

    AtenRa Lifer

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    Lets see,

    Take a look at IvyBridge Quad(4) core die. HD4000 has 16 EUs and it takes almost 33% of the die size.

    [​IMG]

    Now, Core i3 has its own dual(2) core die. HD4000 should take almost 50% of the die area.

    Haswells GT3 will have 40 EUs,
    you end up with Haswell Core i3 with GT3 iGPU occupying more than 50% of the die size, (could be 60-70% ??). Not only that but it will effect the die size as well, making it bigger. That will bring margins down or making the price of Core i3 and the rest of the CPUs go up.

    I believe Intel will not put GT3 in Core i3 and bellow. They dont need it, they will try to keep margins high and keep the current prices.
     
  11. AtenRa

    AtenRa Lifer

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    It will take a new Intel generation of iGPUs to catch Trinity, at the time Trinity will already be 12 months old or more. With the current rumors Brodwell will have to compete with Kaveri a GCN architecture most probably at 20nm (yes i believe AMD will use GloFos 20nm in 2014)

    At the current price of Core i7 ($300+) it will make no deference when Trinity 2.0 will be at half the price or lower. See above.

    Dont expect a Core i3 with GT3 at $130.00 if die size will increase, Intel will not make such a die and sell it lower than current Dual Core Ivy.
     
  12. boxleitnerb

    boxleitnerb Platinum Member

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    Glofo doesn't even have 28nm products out and you believe they will be at 20nm in 2014? That is denial right there. And a new unproven process + new Steamroller cores in Kaveri in 2014? I don't think so. AMD will rather imitate Intel's tick tock approach. Add to that that wafer prices are ever increasing for smaller nodes and 20nm capacity in 2014 (IF glofo can pull it off) won't be too good.

    In the desktop segment, it might still be cheaper to get a small i3 and a discrete GPU either way, AMD or Nvidia. In the mobile segment, another $150 is a relatively small difference when looking at the price of the whole laptop. And you would get a faster CPU too. If it were an i5 quadcore, twice as fast in multithreading than Richland. So it's not like you would pay the extra money for nothing.
     
    #62 boxleitnerb, Nov 8, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  13. mrmt

    mrmt Diamond Member

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    As I said you are arguing a moot point here. Whatever advantage Richland will retain over i3 on graphics it won't be as massive as it was at Westmere or Sandy Bridge, and for high end SKUs there won't be any advantage at all.

    The question I have to ask for people still expecting something from AMD is, if R&D is fine, why not skip Steamroller and go straight to Excavator? Excavator was stated for 2014 anyway, so why not go for it?

    The fact that they are delaying Kaveri (and Excavator) denotes some R&D problem, or that resources are being shifted toward other projects. In both cases we are going to have delayed chips that won't be able to better compete with Intel than if they have arrived in their original time frame, if they reach the market at all.
     
  14. Sweepr

    Sweepr Diamond Member

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    Last time I checked there was no 45W Trinity out there, so whats your point? AMD's best beats Intel's best by 20% (mobile), an overall advantage thats already smaller than SB vs Llano and will be gone in the next round. By the way, there are 35W Intel quads with very similar specs (iGPUs clocked ~100MHz lower on Turbo than 45W parts). 2x over IB GT2 would allow GT3 Haswell to beat even an improved Trinity by a confortable margin.
     
  15. Idontcare

    Idontcare Elite Member

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    Actually GloFo expects 20nm to be in production next year, 2013. They expect 14nm-XM to be in production in 2014.

    Does that reduce your skepticism at all? Yeah, me neither :|
     
  16. ViRGE

    ViRGE Elite Member, Moderator Emeritus

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    Volume production or risk production? Volume production is a fantasy, but I could see them doing some very risky risk production.
     
  17. beginner99

    beginner99 Platinum Member

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    Mobile: all GT3

    Desktop: no GT3 at all, not even K versions
     
  18. boxleitnerb

    boxleitnerb Platinum Member

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  19. NTMBK

    NTMBK Diamond Member

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    His ass.
     
  20. ShintaiDK

    ShintaiDK Lifer

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    Desktops will be GT1 and GT2. Mobile will be GT2 and GT3, with the option of some GT1 Celeron/Pentium maybe.

    [​IMG]
     
    #70 ShintaiDK, Nov 8, 2012
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2012
  21. boxleitnerb

    boxleitnerb Platinum Member

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    So we won't see 2C/4T+GT3 in the "normal" mobile segment, just for Ultrathins?
     
  22. ShintaiDK

    ShintaiDK Lifer

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    Only quadcore and "ultra". However I would expect the "ultra" version to be used in a few regular laptops so to say.
     
  23. OBLAMA2009

    OBLAMA2009 Diamond Member

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    ezackly. amd will disappear and be replaced with arm.
     
  24. mrmt

    mrmt Diamond Member

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    Gentlemen, AMD stock costs is now at the same price of a tall cup of starbucks coffee in Manhattan. Both are $2.01
     
  25. ShintaiDK

    ShintaiDK Lifer

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    And Apple stock lost 165$ in 50 days now :p